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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #03-99, 20 January 1999

TO AFIO MEMBERS: Your encouragement and participation is the basis for AFIO's success. We need each and everyone of you in fulfilling our educational mission of building of a public and leadership constituency for a strong and healthy US intelligence capability.

Each member, contributing to the mission according to his or her capability, is vitally important. If you can, recruit a new member or associate member in'99!

WINs are researched and produced by Editor and AFIO Executive Director Roy Jonkers.

WINs are protected by copyright laws and may not be disseminated without permission of the AFIO Executive Director, except for single instances for purposes of recruiting a new member

EVERY MEMBER RECRUIT A NEW MEMBER in '99!


SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

INDIA / PAKISTAN NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENTS - Recent intelligence reports are said to indicate that both countries are continuing to develop both nuclear weapons and missiles.

Pakistan's nuclear reactor at Khushab appears to be fully operational and may soon be capable of producing 5 to 10 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium annually, enough for one bomb, but faces other bottlenecks in processing the plutonium. Nevertheless, a highly classified (?!?!) CIA report supposedly reported last month that material released by Pakistan's underground nuclear test contained low levels of weapons-grade plutonium. This implies that Pakistan was either producing or importing plutonium without US knowledge. The report was based on an analysis by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, but later contested by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, whose experts charged that Los Alamos contaminated and the lost the air sample from the Pakistan explosion. CIA was said not to have changed its initial assessment. The Department of Energy is investigating. The PFIAB and the Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee (concerned with foreign nuclear proliferation) are involved. The flap demonstrates the technical complexities of monitoring secret developments in nuclear - or for that matter biological or chemical -weapons worldwide.

As for India, it is preparing a first test launch of the Agni-plus, an intermediate-range ballistic missile. A naval-version of a short-range ballistic missile is also expected to be tested in 1999. Pakistan apparently is waiting for a new missile test by India to provide political cover to test its Shaheen II missile, with an expected range of 2,000 kilometers. (WashPost 17Jan99 P. A2) (RoyJ)

IRAN - Iranian Intelligence acknowledged that it's agents were implicated in the recent murder of several advocates of secular or liberal policies for Iran. Secular nationalist politician Darius Forouhar and his wife were stabbed to death at their home in November. A couple of weeks later two liberal inellectuals, Muhammad Mokhtari and Muhammad Pouyandeh, were found murdered. A number of others also disappeared mysteriously. In conjunction, Islamic vigilantes - "guardians of the revolution" - attacked cinemas showing "unislamic films." All this resulted in a public outcry, and President Muhammad Khatami set up a fact-finding task-force, which included the ministers for intelligence and the interior. Instead of the expected cover-up, the intelligence ministry came clean, announcing that a number of its own officials had been implicated and arrested.

President Khatami, elected in 1977 by over 70% of the voters in a 90% turnout, on a platform to make Iran more democratic and freer, scored another success in his patient but steady fight to control religious fundamentalist excesses. (Economist 9 Jan 99 p. 20) (RoyJ)

ISRAELI WATERGATE ?? - The FBI is part of team investigating the extraordinary burglary of the offices of US pollster Stanley Greenberg's offices on Capitol Hill (Greenberg Quinlan Research) -- where thieves broke in not just once, but twice. The burglars reportedly took computer files of polling data and containing information on all of the firm's clients, including particularly Israeli Labor Party leader Ehud Barak, the chief opponent of prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the ongoing election campaign in Israel. One must assume that the purloined data were relevant in terms American Jewish groups or individuals involved in supporting one or another party in the current Israeli election. In the context of this election, already termed by some as potentially the "dirtiest" in memory ( which is saying something), Israel's free-wheeling media promptly dubbed the burglary Israel's "Watergate." Mr. Barak initially stated he preferred to believe it was not aimed at him, but after the second break-in occurred, said he was the target. Mr. Netanyahu said he was being smeared. WPOST 14Jan99 pA11; WTimes 20Jan) (RoyJ)


SECTION II CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE - The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is sponsoring research to develop micro air vehicles (MAVS - for the acronym hounds) -- pilotless "airplanes" a few inches across. The specs call for something that will stay aloft for at least an hour, sending back imagery in realtime, and be cheap - $1,000 or so a piece (dreamers??). Although no inventors have met DARPA's criteria yet, "aircraft" six inches long have been kept aloft for more than 15 minutes. Commercial state-of-the-art camera's are still too large - one inch long - but smaller and better (greater definition) versions are on the way. GPS refinements will provide locational accuracy. With payload, the MAV may weigh as much as 85 grams.

A consortium led by Lockheed Martin has been funded to fly its version, dubbed Microstar, by the end of 1999. The military operational requirement driving this development is urban warfare, providing a means to look around street corners and inside buildings. It has obvious applications against terrorists and in urban criminal settings. The presumed countermeasure may be a giant fly swatter. (Economist 9Jan 99, p. 73) (RoyJ)

STASI FILES - After a cover story in the German weekly "Der Spiegel," revealing the decoding of STASI magnetic tapes containing reports from former HVA agents aboad, "informed" Administration sources contradicted recent press reports and stated that there are no US plans for handing over the STASI files to the German government. The files were reportedly bought by CIA agents nearly ten years ago, after the fall of the Berlin wall, in a great intelligence coup, designated "Operation Rosewood." How they were obtained remains a secret, although it is considered a major CIA triumph in the closing days of the Cold War. Officials will not publicly acknowledge that CIA has the files.

The STASI files contain what may be called the "crown jewels" of any intelligence service -- in this case the true identities, pay, code names and reports of thousands of East Germany's intelligence assets during the Cold War. Press reports claim that the files hold vital data on about 13,000 spies, citizens of West Germany, Britain, other European nations, and the US (including three who were recently convicted), who spied for East Germany. It is considered probable that Russia's intelligence services have all or most of the names. It is said that CIA has in the past years sought to "cauterize" many individuals listed, to reduce the chances that they could be blackmailed by anyone who learns their identity. Providing the STASI files to West German politians could result in widespread embarrasment in German politics. (WP 22 Nov 98 pA2; AP 9 Dec98 from Bonn; Wpost 19Jan99 p A14, 20Jan A17) (DonH & RoyJ)

POLLARD (ad nauseam) - The AFIO Board of Directors voted unanimously to issue an AFIO position paper on the Pollard issue. The text of the letter to the President, issued to the press, follows:

President William J. Clinton
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington DC 20500

Dear Mr. President,

The Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO) believes that Jonathan Pollard's prison sentence is justified and should stand. Pollard was correctly brought to justice and appropriately sentenced for stealing vast quantities of highly classified national security information and selling them to a foreign power.

Even those now arguing for leniency agree that it was wrong, as well as unlawful, for Pollard, a trusted civil servant of the U.S. Navy, to violate his employer's rules and regulations as well as US laws. Pollard has not claimed that he is innocent, and in fact, pleaded guilty to his offense. Other than his disloyalty to the US, there is great doubt about his motivation. He received money and jewelry for the stolen goods, and it is public knowledge that Pollard was in contact with other nations besides Israel, such as South Africa, in an effort to sell his stolen national security secrets. It was only later, as an apparent ploy to rationalize his actions, that the theme of his spying out of notional loyalty to Israel became a factor. The theme appears as an afterthought. He was well paid for his spying.

The Israeli government has admitted that Pollard was its spy, although it still has not returned the vast number of documents Pollard stole from the U.S. The total damage done to U.S. security by Pollard will be quite difficult to assess since the extent to which Israel may have shared what Pollard stole with other countries is not known. Pollard's sentence is justified and should stand. To do otherwise would pose a deep affront to the hundreds of thousands of patriotic and dedicated men and women who have risked and in some cases lost their lives in keeping faith with their oath of office to protect the nation and its security.

Respectfully,

E. Peter Earnest, President, Association of Former Intelligence Officers.

This letter rightfully puts AFIO on record and in line with similar positions reportedly espoused by major US departments and agencies, including CIA and FBI, as well as American intelligence professionals of all ethnic backgrounds (normally not a consideration among professional colleagues). The notion that some of those who betray national security and their oath ( or those accused of vile murder, like Sheinbein in Maryland) are to be excused merely because of their ethnic affiliation, is repugnant to Americans and counterproductive in every respect. This editor nevertheless still holds that the outcome will be based primarily on presumed domestic political and election advantages and contributions, and is pretty well a foregone conclusion. .

Incidentally, part of the AFIO position letter was printed in USA TODAY (19Jan99,page 16A), with essential parts of the argumentation deleted. (RoyJ)

KOREAN WAR - COMMUNIST GERM WARFARE CAMPAIGN - Research published in the Bulletin of the Cold War International History Project of the Woodrow Wilson Center suggests that the false biological warfare charges against the US during the Korean War were instigated by Chinese field advisers to the North Koreans in 1952. At the time the North Korean population was suffering from a massive outbreak of cholera and plague. To buttress their claims, the Communists infected North koreans awaiting exectuion with plague and cholera, so their bodies could be shown to outside investigators, and also forced 25 captured US pilots to sign "confessions." A huge Communist propaganda campaign, blessed by Joseph Stalin and backed by Mao Tse-tung, was subsequently waged through the press and the "World Peace Council," complete with staged public demonstrations in Western Europe.

Although the charges were strongly denounced by American officials from President Truman on down, they were still repeated over 15 years later two British jounalists, and again in 1990 in a ceremony staged in Beijing. But the Soviets knew better. Documents from the Presidential Archives in Moscow include an unpublished resolution of the Presidium of the Soviet Council of Ministers dated May 2, 1953, with the Korean armistice only months away, show the leadership backing away from the communist villification ( cum psychological warfare) campaign. The resolution said: "The Soviet government and Central Committee were misled. The spread of information in the press about the use by the Americans of bacteriological weapons in Korea was based on false information. The accusations against the Americans were fictitious."

In spite of this neither Soviet nor Russian officials have stated to this day that the Korean War biological warfare allegations were false. It is not known if American diplomats have sought, as they administer the latest increment of American largesse to the Russians and the Chinese, to have the historical records corrected by the recipients. (Wash Times 18Nov98, p. A14) (DonH)


SECTION III BOOK REVIEWS

THE GRAND STRATEGY OF PHILIP II, by Geoffrey Parker, Yale University Press 1999. For the intelligence reader, a change of pace to context and strategy. This book is useful as a case study both in leadership -- an intelligent ruler who was unable to delegate meaningful authority to subordinates -- and as an example of strategic reach exceeding strategic grasp -- with the notable intelligence correlary that an abundance of information is not an automatic blessing nor guarantor of success. Philip II presided over a global empire during the 16th century. He was a man of high moral principle, and incorruptible. With all that he compiled one of the worst won-lost records in Western history, including the debacle of the Grand Armada and the disastrous religious war in the Netherlands. This is a well written, interesting and readable book by a veteran historian, with many lessons for today - including the parallel problem of data abundance (overload) versus effective data procesing into knowledge, for executive decision-making, and the influence of the cultural domestic environment and values upon fitness for world leadership. (From rev. by Gary Anderson, WTimes 16Jan99, p. A13) (RoyJ)


SECTION IV BULLETIN BOARD

NEW AFIO EXECUTIVE OFFICERS:

We welcome aboard a new Vice President for AFIO Symposium Programs, Don McDowell (RADM, ret), (email afio@afio.com), who will henceforth be the focal point for structuring, coordinating and publicizing Washington area (Fort Myer etc.) luncheons, symposia and the convention. Anyone interested in working with him on these AFIO acitivites, let him know!

We also welcome a new Vice President for AFIO Corporate Programs, Jim Boginis (CIA ret), (email j.boginis@lmco.com), who will be the AFIO prime on structuring AFIO's corporate program to assist AFIO in building a constitutency for a strong and healthy US intelligence system. Individuals interested in assisting with this effort, let him know.

Both officers will work with the Executive Director and the President in formulating and running their programs. (RoyJ)

NEW AFIO MEMORABILIA PROGRAM: AFIO is re-building a capability to provide members with AFIO memorabilia, through the assistance of AFIO member Roger F. Folkes. One of the first items will be a golf shirt planned envisions a discrete AFIO logo -- along with a motto.

We need your help and ideas with devising the motto. Roger's suggestion was to build this on the- - "been there, done that" - - phrase, such as, for example -- "the original 'been there, done that' club"- - Let us have your thoughts and ideas for the right motto! What would you like to see on your AFIO golf shirt -- or other memento? (RoyJ)

NEW AFIO MERIT SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM - thanks to the donations received from members restoring AFIO to financial health, AFIO has initiated a merit college tuition scholarship program for children or grandchildren of members. Two one-thousand dollar scholarships will be available for the Spring Semester of 2000. Merit criteria will be further publicized. Funds will be disbursed directly to the universities concerned. AFIO members interested in being involved in this program are requested to let us know. (RoyJ)

NEW AFIO EDUCATIONAL OUTREACH PROGRAM - the Ransburg educational program, funded by the generous donations received from Mrs. Maria Ransburg, will be implemented throughout the US through participating chapters. Each chapter will run it's own program with a nearby educational institution - highschool or college - and annually present an award (with funds provided by AFIO National) to a deserving student for overall merit, leadership and constructive interest in national security affairs. The AFIO Chapter President's Council will be provided with additional details. RoyJ)

NEW AFIO CHAPTER HANDBOOK - Nat Aldermann of the SUNCOAST Chapter in Florida is putting together a pamphlet of basic guidelines for forming a new chapter and ideas for running a successful chapter. This will include tips on membership recruiting, meeting arrangements, a sample charter, examples of outreach programs, etc. Our AFIO VP for Chapters, Mike Abshire, invites anyone interested in assisting, contributing chapter experience, programs, ideas, suggestions etc. for inclusion in this Guidebook, to contact Nat at <aldermannj@aol.com>, or fax 727 525 2245. (RoyJ)

AFIO PERIODICALS SCHEDULE - The latest (expanded) edition of the Periscope was mailed on 5 January 99. Included are some long-overdue special thank-you's to the members who have made special contributions to AFIO and AFIO objectives during the past year, and a report on the last Convention. We also have turned over a new leaf by printing a Periscope with photographs .

The next - expanded - issue of Intelligencer is expected to be mailed out in February. (RoyJ)

AFIO LUNCHEON SCHEDULE: The next AFIO luncheon at Fort Myers will be held on Monday, 15 March '99. One of our original speakers had to cancel, so we are still looking for a new set of top-drawer speakers, but you can rest assured they will again be excellent and interesting. Washington area members, please note and reserve the time on your calendar!

The AFIO Speakers' Program is an integral part of the Association's mission to inform the American public on the role and importance of intelligence and to build a public constitutency for intelligence. The Association maintains a data base of members who have volunteered to speak to groups around the country. In the past speakers have been provided to universities, high schools, Chapter meetings and civic associations. This AFIO program is managed by Chuck Slack. He may be contacted at chuckslack@aol.com (RoyJ)

MEMBER VOLUNTEER ACTIVITY - one of our newer members is doing volunteer work with "Cyberangels," chasing pedophiles on the net and turning them over to law enforcement. Interested individuals might check their Web site www.cyberangels.org.

EMPLOYMENT OPORTUNITY - A Washington DC area corporation has a vacancy for an individual with experience in engineering and avionics/mission systems to work on systems security issues in the Program Security Directorate. Interested individuals contact TIM at AFIO (afio@afio.com), an refer to file #E-11.

IN MEMORIAM: We mourn the passing of the following colleagues:

Tom Flores, longtime CIA Station Chief in WH and former COS, Saigon, holder of several CIA medals, died on January 3rd, 1999 at his retirement home in Caracas, Venezuela. For more information contact <htmmlm@aol.com>

Frances B. Prugh, a longtime AFIO member, who worked in F-Branch (R&D) of the Army Security Agency at Arlington Hall during WW II, died December 13, 1998. She leaves her husband, Thomas Prugh, also a valued AFIO member, who can be reached at taprugh@cpcug.org.

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