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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #04-99, 24 January 1999

WINs are news commentaries researched and produced by Editor and AFIO Executive Director Roy Jonkers. This WIN contains contributions by Dr. John Macartney (JohnMac) and RADM Don Harvey (DonH). Principal sources used as a basis for the commentaries are cited.

WINs are protected by copyright laws and may not be disseminated in whole or part without permission of the AFIO Executive Director, except for single instances for purposes of recruiting a new member.

The AFIO Spring Luncheon will be held at Fort Myer, Virginia, on March 15, 1999, from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. As usual, there will be two outstanding speakers. See Section IV CALENDAR below.

The AFIO Board Meeting will be conducted immediately afterward at 2 p.m.


SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

RUSSIAN - IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEALINGS - Nuclear cooperation by Russian entities and Iran goes well beyond the construction of a nuclear power station at Bushehr in western Iran. (NOTE: the Bushehr nuclear reactor was started in 1974 with German assistance and was suspended in 1979). Reportedly, US intelligence reports indicate officials from at least two key Russian nuclear-research institutes have been quietly negotiating to sell Iran a 40-megawatt heavy-water research reactor and a uranium-conversion facility. The reports suggest Russian nuclear scientists are also secretly advising Iran on how to produce heavy water and nuclear-grade graphite. American officials believe the technology and information are building blocks for a long-range Iranian effort to manufacture plutonium or highly-enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb.

The Russian covert assistance may be an effort intended to keep paying Iranian customers happy and in a buying mood. Russia's once all-powerful Ministry of Atomic Energy, known as Minatom, is believed to be desperate for cash and arrogant enough to violate Russia's agreement with the US not to expand its nuclear cooperation with Iran. "We are aware that a number of Russian entities are engaged in cooperation with Iran that goes beyond the Bushehr reactor project," the State Department has said.

US sanctions against the two institutes have been announced, and more can be expected unless Moscow takes steps to halt the nuclear trade. If the past is prologue, however, US measures will be at least partially ineffective in this long-running development. (WallSt Jrnl 15Dec98 p.A1; Wtimes 16Dec pA1) (DonH)

IRAQ STRIKE -- Three weeks after the fact, further bomb damage assessment (BDA) based on "intelligence information beyond aerial or satellite photographs," indicates a more severe impact of the bombings than initially reported. The Chairman of the JCS recently stated that the U.S.-British air campaign against Iraq last month killed from 600 to 1,600 members of President Saddam Hussein's elite military and security forces, including "several key individuals. "He lost a lot," according to General Shelton. (http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/news/world/iraq-damage.html) (JohnMac)

US RADIO FREE IRAQ -- Radio Free Iraq is so unlikely to attract the Iraqi public's attention, according to the chief editor of Iraq's Baath Party newspaper, that its radio transmissions will NOT be jammed. "It is just a drop in the ocean. It is going to do nothing," the editor said. The US-funded operation in Prague started broadcasts aimed at Iraq in November. ( Note: Farsi language broadcasts to Iran were also begun at the same time.)

Prior to the Radio Free Iraq broadcasts, Iraqis could hear broadcasts opposed to Saddam Hussein from neighboring Iran, Kuwait and Syria as well as from Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq. In addition, the BBC, the Voice of America, the French-sponsored Radio Monte Carlo and Israel Radio have Arabic-language broadcasts heard throughout the region. From Iran, the Voice of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq regularly accuses the Baghdad government of being a puppet of the US in general and the CIA in particular. From northern Iraq, the Voice of the Iraqi People has been telling Iraqis for the past eight years that the days of Saddam Hussein are numbered. It would appear that the decision not to jam was not unreasonable even in the context of Saddam's extreme sensitivity to any possible threat to his stranglehold on the people. (AP 1Dec98, Leon Barkho) (DonH)

AFGHANISTAN - Opium and heroin production in Afghanistan has increased markedly since the Taleban established control over most of the country, despite the fundamentalist Moslem tenets of the movement. US estimates, based on overhead imagery, show that poppy cultivation in Afghanistan grew from about 50,000 acres in 1992 to 99,000 acres at the end of 1997, and continues to expand. Afghanistan is the second-largest opium producer in the world and is responsible for the production of more than one-third of the world's opium and heroin.

The Taleban controls 96% of the poppy-growing regions and reaps profits by taxing poppy growers and those who refine poppies into opium. Poppy production has increased dramatically in Kandahar province, which is both the heartland of the Taleban movement and base of operations for Osama bin Laden. US Intelligence agencies have received credible reports that members of bin Laden's security forces protect drug shipments and store drugs in their guarded warehouses. The British press further printed speculations that bin Laden forces are offering to buy opium directly from the farmers, theoretically providing them the potential to market narcotics through bin Laden's reputed international network of contacts. (Wpost 5Oct98 pA15; Wtimes 30Nov98 pA13; London Observer) (DonH)


SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

CHINESE ESPIONAGE ASSESSMENT - A top secret House committee report last year detailed two decades of Chinese espionage efforts, including theft of the neutron bomb and illegal campaign contributions. In calling for release of the report, the LA Times hints at a US counterintelligence "failure," a favorite topic of the popular press. "Secrecy is understandable, but findings like these warrant making key parts of the report public--the sooner, the better. If China's espionage activities are as extensive as the committee indicates, a review of American intelligence policies clearly seems in order."

For a sensational expose on this matter, see "YEAR OF RAT" in the book review section, below.

Meanwhile action has been taken. President Clinton issued a classified-decision directive -- PDD-61 -- in early 1998, calling for sweeping changes to the Energy Department's counterintelligence program. The department has since established an independent intelligence office, headed up by a Central Intelligence Agency official and a separate Office of Counterintelligence, headed up by a former FBI official. It has also placed counterintelligence officers at all five weapons-design labs, begun more intensive security reviews for scientists working in sensitive programs -- including lie-detector tests -- and changed the screening process for foreign scientists applying to visit any of the labs. Officials say that the department's classified counterintelligence budget doubled between fiscal years 1998 and 1999, and is expected to double again next year. (http://www.latimes.com:80/excite/990106/t000001614.html ; WallSt Journal Jan7) (JohnMac)

WHAT IS MASINT ? Senior US intelligence officials are saying publicly that MASINT

(Measurement and Signature Intelligence), is gaining in importance and will soon be one of the most valuable of all the collection disciplines. What is MASINT?

In Measurement and Signature Intelligence the key word is "signature." MASINT sensors come in a wide variety -- among them are seismographs, air samplers, hyperspectral imagers, radiation, sound and motion detectors. What they seem to have in common is the ability to detect "signatures" that reveal the presence of particular materials or phenomena -- like underground nuclear tests, or marijuana patches, or industrial pollutants, or anthrax, or nerve gas, or explosives.

The US Intelligence Community officially recognized MASINT in 1986. In 1992, MASINT was cast as one of four main "INT's," alongside HUMINT, SIGINT, and IMINT and the Central Masint Office (CMO) was established within DIA. Current MASINT collection data sources depend on science and technology research and development and are used, according the a 1997 DOD IG report, to exploit the following phenomena: - nuclear, chemical, and biological features; - emitted energy (e.g., nuclear, thermal, and electromagnetic); - reflected (re-radiated) energy (e.g., radio frequency, light, and sound); - mechanical sound (e.g., engine, propeller, or machinery noise); - magnetic properties (e.g., magnetic flux and anomalies); - motion (e.g., flight, vibration, or movement); and - material composition.

"Material composition," above, is probably the most promising of these technologies and is an outgrowth of commercial developments in multispectral and hyperspectral imaging. Recall 1997, when we all watched our TV's and saw the Pathfinder spacecraft's wheeled robotic vehicle moving about the surface of Mars and reporting back to earth, 119 miles away, the chemical and mineral composition of the Red Planet's surface. That was a demonstration of a "material composition" sensor in action. This is very hi tech, Buck Rogers type stuff, but basically hyperspectral imagery allows (or WILL allow -- this technology is still mostly on the drawing boards and mostly in the commercial sector) the chemical analysis of material remotely -- from a hand held "spectrometer or from an aircraft or space platform.

If you want to pursue MASINT further, recommend you go to the FAS site below and search for "masint." For more information on commercial hyperspectral imaging, try the "techexpo" site, #2 below. And for a very interesting article (Airpower Journal, Summer 1995) that speculates about the constellation of intelligence sensors and information processing systems that may be available in the year 2020, go to the "airpower.maxwell" site below. (JohnMac)

http://www.fas.org/irp/> http://www.fas.org/irp/ , http://www.techexpo.com/WWW/opto-knowledge/IS_resources.html , http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/spacast1.html

PASSIVE RADAR ??? Radar, of course, works on the principle of sending out radio waves and reading them when they "bounce back" from a distant target. Because it must be transmitting to be effective, it is hard to hide a radar, and missiles can home in on the radar transmissions -- as Iraqi anti aircraft crews have learned. Recently I came across something in Aviation Week about an experimental new passive radar that works without any emissions of its own. Only in the experimental stage, it works, as I understand it, like this: In the industrial world these days the air is full of microwaves from phones, radios, TV's etc, The experimental passive "radar" essentially monitors those microwaves and establishes their normal pattern. When the pattern is subsequently disturbed by a passing aircraft, the "radar" detects that disturbance. A test bed has been, according to Aviation Week, successfully monitoring the flow of commercial airliners in and out of the Baltimore-Washington Airport (BWI) for several months.(JohnMac)

CIA JOB SEEKERS. A brief item in the Jan 11 Washington Post reports that resumes from job seekers are pouring into CIA at a high rate -- 11,000 in the four months since last September, a substantial 25% ahead of last year's pace. Of the few hundred who are actually offered positions, the acceptance rate is a very high 68 percent.

PAPA WAS A SPY. Declassified Justice Dept memos available on the internet show that Ernest Hemingway was assisting the US embassy in Havana with intelligence operations during World War II. Among other things, he was passing along reports from his own "agents" about corruption of Cuban officials, German and Spanish intelligence activities in Cuba and submarine sightings from his fishing boat. The documents also indicate FBI concern that Hemingway was running his own "out of control" investigations. http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/hemingway1.shtml (JohnMac)


SECTION III BOOK REVIEWS

The Haunted Wood: Soviet Espionage in America - The Stalin Era, by Allen Weinstein and Alexander Vassilev, Random House, 400 pages, $30.00. Why do people betray their countries - or their parents - and become spies? The phenomenology of espionage and betrayal is both straightforward and complex. This book deals with spies motivated by communist/socialist idealism, dedicated Soviet-inspired fanatics undeterred by facts published about Stalin's terrifying record of genocide and terror. ( On the other hand, it must be noted that they were living and operating in a society in which capitalism was under great pressure from the shock of the depression in the thirties (which, incidentally, was not as severe as the one in Germany during the Weimar Republic or the current one in Russia) and also, during the war, suffused with wartime pro-Soviet Government political bias and propaganda.) Based on hitherto closed Soviet archives of the Stalin-era Soviet secret police, it is shocking to read about the enormous network of Americans willingly engaged in treason on behalf of the Soviets during and after World War II and the extent of the penetration of spies and agents of influence (fellow travelers) in American institutions. Supplementing the VENONA revelations, this book provides a documented glimpse of the day-to-day operations of the Stalin-era espionage and agents-of-influence apparat. Essential reading for students of the era and espionage phenomenology. (RoyJ)

The Year of the Rat: How Bill Clinton Compromised US Security for Chinese Cash, by Edward Timperlake and William Triplett, Regenery, 1998, 256 pages. Written by two veteran GOP Hill staffers, this book, which I have not seen, must be an anti-Clinton hatchet job. However that may be, for our purposes it relates to Chinese Intelligence and US Counterintelligence. Here is how amazon.com describes the book: "Timperlake and Triplett gather together an astonishing - and largely convincing - mass of evidence that the Clinton-Gore Administration made a series of 'Faustian bargains' and policy blunders that allowed a hostile power to further its aims in Washington. In addition to the potential security breach represented by Huang, they document numerous policy decisions that risk strengthening the technological and military power of Communist China, power that might well be used against the United States in the future." (John Mac).

Further Comment: This episode would have made a much more convincing case against the President, but either the evidence was not there or nobody's skirts were clean in election campaign financing. (RoyJ)


SECTION IV BULLETIN BOARD

Change of Pace - Pick Your World Leader. It is time to elect a world leader, and your vote counts. Here's the scoop on three leading candidates.

CANDIDATE A - Associates with ward heelers and consults with astrologists. Chain smokes and drinks 8 to 10 martini's a day.

CANDIDATE B - Kicked out of office twice, sleeps until noon, used opium in college and drinks a quart of brandy every evening;

CANDIDATE C - Decorated war hero, doesn't smoke, drinks an occasional beer and hasn't had any illicit affairs.

Which of these candidates is your choice? Make your selection, pick one, then scroll down past next article (Defense Reform) to compare clues.

Defense Reform - For those wishing to keep up with this slow-moving elephant, the Web Site for the Defense Reform Office - - within the Office of the Secretary of Defense -- is www.defenselink.mil./dodreform.

Pick Your Leader continued:

Candidate A is Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Candidate B is Winston Churchil.

Candidate C is Adolph Hitler.

Happy with your choice? (courtesy Ed Milligan)

CALENDAR ITEMS:

AFIO SPRING LUNCHEON - 15 March at Fort Myer, Virginia.

Two superb speakers:

Morning session (11 a.m. - 12 noon) John O. Koehler will speak on the subject of his book: "STASI: The Untold Story of the East German Secret Police." The entire topic of the STASI files, reportedly in CIA possession, is fascinating. Books will be available, and the author will autograph them.

Afternoon Session (1 - 2 pm) We have an invitation out to Professor Paul Goble to speak on RUSSIA. We should know next week. A spellbinding orator and expert on Russia, this promises to be a memorable presentation.

Reserve your place. Send check for $26.00 (members and their guests) , or $29.00 (non-members) to AFIO - 6723 Whittier Avenue, Ste 303A, McLean VA 22101-4533.

On Thursday 4 February the Director of the Romanian Foreign Intelligence Service, Catalin Harnagea, will speak on "Crisis Management in the Balkans and the Romanian Intelligence Service" at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Ronald Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW . The session is open to the public. Reservations are required. Call Ms Cynthia Ely to reserve your place (tel 202 691 4188). (J. Goulden)

A Counterrorism and Security Seminar organized by POSSE (Police Officers Survivors Services Endowment) will be conducted at the Atlanta North Central Marriott Hotel on April 19-21, 1999. Other than high ranking US Government speakers, the former director of CI for the KGB, General Victor Budanov, will present the risks of Russia's current criminal and terrorism situation. For more info, contact POSSE c/o MIC, tel 703 527 8000 or email micexpos@aol.com and reference AFIO.

The ABM Treaty in a Changed World: Cornerstone of Strategic Stability or Part of the Problem? A Capitol Hill forum conducted on Thursday February 18 from 5 pm to 7 pm, sponsored by the Center for National Security Law in the Rayburn House Office Building (Room 2168 - Gold Room) is open to the public. Notify the Center by Monday Feb 15th of your wish to attend (cnsl@virgnia.edu.

AFIO NEWS

AFIO Board Position Requirement: The Chairman of the Board is calling for a volunteer to function as Secretary/Parliamentarian to the Board. This involves attending quarterly Board sessions, taking note of the essence of the proceedings and compiling the Minutes, and advising the Chairman on procedures when necessary. Interested individuals please contact the Chairman at wjkvetkas@aol.com.

Recently Filled AFIO Executive Officer Positions:

(1) Vice President for AFIO Symposium Programs, Don McDowell (RADM, USN ret). Anyone interested in assisting him with planning, organizing and running meetings and conferences, let him know! (email donmcdo@aol.com).

(2) Vice President for AFIO Corporate Programs, Jim Boginis (CIA ret). Individuals interested in assisting with structuring and running an effective corporate program, please contact him. (email jim.boginis@lmco.com). NOTE: This corrects error in email address in last WIN.

(3) Vice President for Chapters, Emerson Cooper* (VP Ford Motor corp, ret), Pacific Northwest Chapter, will structure active chapter support, guidance and feedback program for AFIO (tel 360 653 6107; fax 360 658 1781).

(4) Chairman, AFIO Chapter Presidents' Council, Mike Abshire (CIA ret), San Antonio Chapter, coordinates chapter issues and positions.

(5) Chairman, Fundraising and Bequests Committee, Albano Ponte* (Investment Banking). Structure a conceptual approach and implementing plan to obtain financial support to achieve AFIO objectives; when approved, implement. Individuals interested in participating on Committee contact afio@afio.com .

NOTE: Asterisk denotes appointment by President, to be approved by Board. (RoyJ)

AFIO CHAPTER HANDBOOK - Nat Aldermann of the SUNCOAST Chapter in Florida is putting together a "manual" containing basic guidelines and suggestions for forming a new chapter and ideas for running a successful chapter.

Anyone wishing to contribute chapter experience, programs, ideas, suggestions etc. for inclusion in this Guidebook, contact Nat at aldermannj@aol.com, or fax 727 525 2245. (RoyJ)

AFIO MEMORABILIA REQUIREMENT: We received several excellent inputs and ideas for a tasteful and appropriate (short) motto to go along with the AFIO symbol. We solicit more ideas for a pithy AFIO motto. (RoyJ)

AFIO MERIT SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM REQUIREMENT - We need some AFIO members to run this program.

Thanks to the donations received from members, AFIO has initiated a college tuition scholarship program for children or grandchildren of members, and indeed, possibly for members themselves. A pair of one-thousand dollar scholarships will be funded and available for the Spring Semester of the year 2000. Merit criteria will be further publicized. Funds will be disbursed directly to the universities concerned. (RoyJ)

MISCELLANEOUS:

Request for Expertise - AFIO member Joe Fontana is working on a second novel, "Crescent Eagle," involving the topics of international arms dealing and Bosnia. He would like to talk to any member who can provide some realistic perspectives on the topics. Incidentally, his first novel, PENTIUM, sold out and is going to a second printing.

Contact JoeFontana@worldnet.att.net.

Research Support Requested: Mona K. Bitar, of the School of Politics, Faculty of Law and Social Sciences, University of Nottingham, is doing a study on UK and US policy towards Cambodia between the years 1955 - 1965. Bitar is seeking information on the extent to which CIA tried to stop Vietnamese and Thai plotting against Cambodia during that period, supplementing, confirming or contradicting information contained in Sedgwick Tourison's "Secret Army, Secret War." (Fax 0115 951 4859)

EMPLOYMENT OPORTUNITY - A Washington DC area corporation has a vacancy for an individual with experience in engineering and avionics/mission systems to work on systems security issues in the Program Security Directorate. Interested individuals contact TIM at AFIO (afio@afio.com), and refer to file #E-11.

IN MEMORIAM - We regret to report the passing of the following colleagues:

Captain Frank Notz, USN, died on January 5th and was interred with full honors in Arlington National Cemetery on the morning of January 20th. He succumbed after a two-year battle against cancer at the young age 55. Frank Notz was an exemplary Navy intelligence officer, a former Commander of the Navy Marine Corps Intelligence College, who was "kind of a legend" to his colleagues of all ranks, an overflow number of whom bid him farewell on his final cruise. (Tom Fergusson)

Lieutenant General Jammie M. Philpott, USAF, died January 18th 1999 at age 79 of complications to a broken hip. He served in WWII and Korea, and as Deputy Chief of Staff, Intelligence for the Seventh Air Force in Vietnam. (WPost)

AFIO members: Your encouragement and participation is the basis for AFIO's success. We need each and everyone of you in fulfilling our educational mission of building of a public and leadership constituency for a strong and healthy US intelligence capability.

Each member, contributing to the mission according to his or her capability, is vitally important. If you can, recruit a new member or associate member in'99.

EVERY MEMBER RECRUIT A NEW MEMBER in '99!

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