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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #07-99, 15 Feb 99

WINs are produced by the AFIO Executive Director, Roy Jonkers. NOTE: This AFIO WIN was researched and prepared by John Macartney, jdmac@erols.com


SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

MEXICAN "CERTIFICATION." By February 28 each year, the President must "certify" which foreign countries are helping in the war on narcotics and which are part of the problem. Decertification cuts off assistance relationships with the US. The whole process is considered a humiliating assault on sovereignty by other governments, but the US Congress loves it. Columbia has been decertified for several years now and Mexico is a borderline case. Well, this is another issue where intelligence conflicts with policy. The Clinton Administration does not want to offend Mexico with decertification and is unlikely to do so. Nevertheless, it is the job of the the CIA (and the rest of the intelligence community) to provide an honest, objective appraisal of how Mexico is doing -- which is likely to portray Mexico as a "narco state." That, of course, will anger the Administration while pleasing those in Congress and elsewhere who oppose the President's policy -- putting the CIA between a rock and a hard spot. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/mexico/mexico.htm

SENIOR INTELLIGENCE AGENCY APPOINTMENT RUMORS. According to Bill Gertz, the Washington Times intelligence reporter, the President is about to nominate AF MajGen Michael Hayden to replace outgoing NSA Director LTGEN Kenneth Minihan. Meanwhile, the White House is eyeing LTG Claudia Kennedy, the Army's deputy chief of staff for intelligence, to replace Army LTG Patrick Hughes, who will retire in July as Director DIA.

DISEASE CONTROL INTELLIGENCE. Smallpox, which once claimed millions of victims a year and but was then declared eradicated in 1979, is back at the top of a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention watch list ˜ as the leading biological terrorism threat to the US. Intelligence reports led CDC officials to conclude that North Korea and other potential adversaries may have harvested smallpox for use in weapons. http://www.msnbc.com/news/236026.asp


SECTION II CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

ISRAEL DENIES DIA REPORT. Israel says it did not transfer classified US technology to China. Commenting on a Jan 27 Washington Times report saying the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) suspects Israel shared restricted US weapons technology with China, a Defense Ministry spokesman termed the allegations "completely baseless." The suspicions were said to be based on reports by US employees who saw Chinese technicians working in an Israeli plant that is also involved in building a battlefield laser gun to knock out Katyusha rockets. http://nt.excite.com/news/u/990203/13/international-china-us

SUDANESE PHARMACEUTICAL PLANT. Chemists who examined soil, sludge and debris samples from a Sudanese pharmaceutical plant destroyed in August by American cruise missiles found no traces of chemical weapon compounds, according to a scientist hired by the owner of the plant. Meanwhile, the Clinton Administration and the US intelligence community are saying little but standing by their decision. (Which means, in my view that either (1) they got it right but are unwilling to reveal their intelligence sources and methods, or (2) they have doubts and want the issue to go away. http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/africa/020999sudan-plant.html

SEAWOLF TO RIGGED FOR CLANDESTINE MISSIONS. According to Defense Week, the attack submarine USS Jimmy Carter, now under construction, will be modified to undertake special clandestine projects and intelligence collection missions.

ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE. FBI Director Louis Freeh told a symposium on economic espionage at the US Chamber of Commerce that the stealing of corporate secrets is a growing issue for US firms. The main threat comes from employees, http://www.abcnews.go.com/wire/World/Reuters19990209_2397.html

INTELLIGENCE FILES ON PRINCES DIANA. A US judge has ordered the DIA and CIA to provide their 1,000-page dossier on Diana to Mohamed Al Fayed, father of Diana's lover. http://www.abcnews.go.com/wire/World/Reuters19990209_2304.html

SEE THROUGH WALLS. The Army is seeking through-the-wall imaging capabilities. "Systems should have capability to image through walls of varying construction, including: (a) Interior Walls -- Standard sheet rock; plaster over lath; plaster over screening Materials, wood, ceramic tile, brick, cinder block, stone (marble or granite). These materials are typically installed over interior framing that is either wood or metal; and (b) Exterior Walls -- Wood, brick, cinder block, stucco, vinyl or aluminum siding, concrete, and reinforced concrete." http://web.fie.com/htdoc/fed/dod/amy/any/proc/mti/01209907.htm

UK ASKED TELEPHONE ENGINEERS TO REPORT. Britain says it had asked four British telephone engineers who were later murdered in Chechnya to report back with sensitive information. http://www.russiatoday.com/rtoday/news/99011302.html?html

IS THE US GOVT COVERING UP LASING INCIDENT? In April 1997, Lt Jack Daly, a US Navy intelligence officer assigned to liaison duties with the Canadian Navy in British Columbia, was flying in a Canadian helicopter that was surveilling a Russian merchant ship, the Kapitan Man, which was thought to be spying on US nuclear submarines near Tacoma, Washington. While photographing the ship, Daly and the Canadian helicopter pilot both apparently suffered eye damage from a laser beamed up from the ship. The US Govt searched the ship after it reached Tacoma and found nothing -- but the searchers were denied access to parts of the ship and, in any event, the State Dept had given the ship's captain a 24 hour heads up before the search. Since no laser was found, the US and Canadian govt positions on the matter, according to Lt Daly, is there is no proof -- although the laser beam (or something) was captured in Daly's photo.Daly believes there is an ongoing cover up in order to not disturb US-Russian relations. Now, almost 2 years later, Daly has permanent and debilitating eye damage, has been reassigned to San Diego and has received a low fitness report -- that, Daly says, is because he won't shut up about the incident. Read about it yourself in the Feb 12 Washington Times.

CANADIAN SPY STORY. A year ago the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) made headlines by trying to toss one of its former spies out of the country. Ryszard Paszkowski, who had worked for CSIS in Edmonton, keeping an eye on Polish subversives at the University of Alberta, caused his spy masters in Ottawa a lot of grief when he walked out on them and went public with his story. CSIS retaliated by trying to ship him back to Poland against his wishes. Paszkowski holed up in the basement of Trinity United Church in Ottawa. And CSIS didn't dare charge into the church to evict him. A sort of Polish stand-off ensued; it was settled after nine days when a judge told CSIS to leave Paszkowski alone and sent the former Canadian spy back to his family in Edmonton. Meanwhile, CSIS, which controls his immigration security clearance, still refuses to clear him to become a landed immigrant. http://www.canoe.ca/CNEWSPoliticsColumns/981229_cleroux.html

DEFENSE LANGUAGE INSTITUTE at Monterey has been training intelligence linguists, primarily SIGINT'rs, for the past 50 years. According to the Baltimore Sun. Until 1990, more than half the students learned Russian, German or Czech. Then the Berlin Wall came down, the Soviet Union crumbled, and war broke out in the Persian Gulf. The number of Arabic teachers doubled to 190. Last year, the school graduated more than 500 Arabic-proficient students, compared with 10 from all other US colleges. In addition to a huge shift toward Middle Eastern languages, military and economic concerns in China, Korea and Japan have prompted a shift toward Asian languages, too. The number of Korean language teachers has trebled to 130. About 24 languages are now taught here. (Balt Sun, 5Jan99)

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE -- Jobs for Retired Intelligence Officers. "Wall Street banks and investors are seeking out former spies and law enforcement officials to help them do extensive background checks on individuals and companies seeking funds. The KGB, the US Drug Enforcement Administration, the CIA, British intelligence, the FBI and IRS -- all are sources of talent for nervous Wall Street insiders. "The reason the industry has grown this decade is because of the end of the Cold War," said Rustmann, a 24-year veteran of the CIA and chairman of West Palm Beach, Fla.-based CTC International Group Inc.(and AFIO member). Former Cold War spies offer not only the ability to gather information in emerging markets but also the networks they developed when they were on a government's payroll." (CNNfn, 5Jan99)


SECTION III - BOOKS, PUBLICATIONS & RELATED ITEMS

NIXON ADMINISTRATION OFFERED INTELLIGENCE TO CHINA. A new book (The Kissinger Transcripts: The Top Secret Talks with Beijing and Moscow, New Press, 1999, edited by William Burr), reveals that in 1973 Henry Kissinger and President Nixon offered to share US intelligence on the Soviet Union with China at a time when China feared a Soviet nuclear attack. http://www.seas.gwu.edu/nsarchive/nsa/publications/DOC_readers/kissinger/tilt.htm http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-01/10/158l-011099-idx.html

Politics & Prose Bookstore at 5015 Connecticut Ave in Washington, DC  will have as a featured author this Wednesday evening, Feb 17, Allan Weinstein, co-author of "Haunted Wood." Allen Weinstein & Alexander Vassiliev, The Haunted Wood: Soviet Espionage in America -- the Stalin Era, Random House 1998, 402pp. Based on documents from KGB archives which were available during a 2 year window after the end of the Soviet Union, this book documents espionage by a number of the Americans accused during the McCarthy era -- Alger Hiss, Laurence Duggan, Michael Straight, Lauchlin Currie, etc.  While none of those are new, their appearance in KGB files (one document is about a Soviet decoration secretly awarded to Alger Hiss for his espionage successes), certainly ends all doubt.& Of note, while the authors did not find any evidence that atomic scientist J Robert Oppenheimer was a spy, they did find documentation that he was a secret member of the Communist Party USA. http://www.nytimes.com/books/99/01/03/reviews/990103.03persict.html

CNN Cold War series will cover espionage March 7. CNN's ongoing series about the Cold War (Sunday's 8- 9pm EST) has been criticized, rightly I think, for "moral equivalence" -- equating McCarthyism with the Gulag, for example. In any event, the March 7 issue will cover espionage. http://www.us.net/cip/cia.htm


SECTION IV BULLETIN BOARD.

CAN YOU ASSIST WITH FILM DOCUMENTARY? Ted Landreth, a documentary film producer and a former head of the international news operation at CBS News, has contacted AFIO and asked if any members can help him. He is preparing an investigative documentary about BG John Weckerling, who was Chief of the Intelligence Division of the Army General Staff in 1950-52, under MG Alexander Bolling as G-2 (and Gen Joseph Lawton "Lightning Joe" Collins as Chief of Staff). He would like to identify, locate -- and talk to -- anybody who worked with or knew the late BG Weckerling. Ted Landreth, (323) 934-6620

INTELLIGENCE ON THE INTERNET. The World Wide Web has given birth to a whole industry of point-and-click spying -- "open-source intelligence." In 1995 the CIA held a contest to see who could compile the most data about Burundi. The winner, by a large margin, was a tiny Virginia company called Open Source Solutions (OSS), whose clear advantage was its mastery of the electronic world. Among the firms making the biggest splash in this new world is Stratfor, Inc., a private intelligence-analysis firm based in Austin, Texas. NOTE: Stratfor products are free; also, Stratfor is hiring http://www.stratfor.com , http://cgi.pathfinder.com/time/magazine/articles/0,3266,18728,00.html

GOOD SITE for military-related publications:

http://militaryinfo.hypermart.net/

FUTURE OF US MILITARY. Policy.com's issue of the week. http://www.policy.com/issuewk/1999/0201_55/index.html

Take a look at this web page:

http://www.covertcomic.com/CovertComicJokes.htm


SECTION V -- MONTHLY "HEADS UP" SCHEDULE.

NOTE: If you know of an event coming up in the next 12 months that should be added to this list, PLEASE ADVISE John Macartney, jdmac@erols.com.

FEB 16-20, Washington. ISA Convention. This is the premier forum for intelligence scholars and will include 13 panels devoted to intelligence. http://csf.colorado.edu/isa/washington/

FEB 16, Washington. Federation of American Scientists conference, "Through the Keyhole: Public Policy Applications of Declassified Corona Satellite Imagery."Carnegie Endowme

FEB 17, Washington. Politics & Prose Bookstore at 5015 Connecticut Ave in Washington, DC will have as a featured author this Wednesday evening, Allan Weinstein, co-author of Haunted Wood: Soviet Espionage in America -- the Stalin Era.

FEB 18, Washington. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon with Dr Mark Lowenthal, 1130 at the Bolling AFB NCO Club. Subject is the "Future of Imagery. Highly recommended -- Lowenthal is the best speaker on intelligence I know. Currently President of OSS, he's been Staff Director of the House Intelligence committee, AsstSecState for Intelligence, and Chairman of CRS's international affairs department. He also teaches at Boston U and has authored several books and articles on intelligence. Cost is $15 including breast of chicken lunch, payable at the door.To go you must RSVP, no walk-ins.You can call (703) 379-8400 and navigate to "Potomac Chapter," or send e-mail to Lori Tugman at lj@pcic.net.; In order to get base access, you must RSVP by 10am Monday the 15th -- it's Wednesday the 17th if you have access (military or other govt ID, I suppose).

MAR 8-9, Chantilly, VA. NMIA's Symposium, "MASINT Support to the Warfighter", NRO Conference Center, Chantilly, VA. Classification level: SECRET CALL 301 840 6642.

MAR 8-11, The Hague, Netherlands.& EuroIntel '99 conference sponsored by OSS, Inc. http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700

MAR 14, CNN Cold War TV episode on espionage, 8pm EST. http://cnn.com/SPECIALS/cold.war/experience/spies/

MAR 15, Ft Myer, VA, O'Club, AFIO luncheon. At 11am, John Koehler will speak on his book: "STASI: The Untold Story of the East German Secret Police." After- lunch speaker will be Professor Paul Goble, a spell binding speaker and long time RFE/RLofficial, who will talk about "Whiter Russia." Send check for $26.00 (members and their guests) , or $29.00 (non-members) to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Avenue, Ste 303A, McLean VA 22101-4533. 703-790-0320 / https://www.afio.com

MAR 21-25, Washington. National OPSEC Conference, Radisson Plaza at Mark Center in Alexandria, Virginia. http://www.opsec.org / 301.548.1018.

MAR 24-25, Washington. Professional Connections in the Intelligence Community (PCIC) Symposium (job fair), at Radisson Plaza Hotel at Mark Center, Alexandria, Virginia. http://www.pcic.net

May 21, Alexandria, VA. NMIA's Information Operations '99 and the NMIA Annual Awards Banquet, Radisson Plaza at Mark Center in Alexandria, Virginia. (301) 840-6642, http://www.nmia.org

May 23-26, Rosslyn, Virginia. OSS Œ99 at the Holiday Inn Westpark. (703) 242-1700, http://www.oss.net/

May 25 - Washington / Rosslyn Westpark Holiday Inn - AFIO Mini-Symposium, "Intelligence and the Law," Chairman Tom Spencer. Conducted in conjunction with, but independent from, OSS Conference. Tel 703 790 0320. https://www.afio.com

Apr 23-24, Williamstown, MA. Spring meeting of AFIO New England Chapter at the Williams Inn. (860) 669-7706.

June 18, Washington. DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College sponsored conference on teaching intelligence in colleges and universities. Contact AFIO member LTC (colonel-select -- congratulations!) Kevin Johnson, (202) 231-4173 or k-m-johnson@worldnet.att.net

June 24 - 28, Great Lakes Naval Base, IL. AFIO Midwest Chapter 10th annual Intelligence Seminar at Great Lakes June 24, 25 and 26, followed by at tour of the Joint Reserve Center at Fort Sheridan on the 27th, and sessions as well as dinners on 27 and 28 June at the Eagles Nest at the Great Lakes Base. Contact President Angelo Diliberti diaboliq@home.com.

Jul 16-17, Peru, VT. Summer meeting of AFIO New England Chapter at the Bromely Sun Lodge, (860) 669-7706.

Oct 29-30, Kennebunkport, ME.Fall meeting of AFIO New England Chapter, Nonantum Resort. (860) 669-7706.


NOTE: AFIO MEMBERSHIP or associate membership is open to US citizens who subscribe to AFIO's principles and objectives - see AFIO's Homepage at https://www.afio.com For back issues, updated periodically, see the AFIO Homepage: https://www.afio.com

NOTE - WINs are protected by copyright laws and re-transmission is not permitted without specific AFIO concurrence.

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