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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #08-99, 24 Feb. 1999

WINs are protected by copyright laws and may not be disseminated in whole or part without permission of the AFIO Executive Director, except for single instances for purposes of recruiting a new member.

WINs contain commentaries researched and produced by Editor and AFIO Executive Director Roy Jonkers. Research assistance for this WIN was provided by graduate student Ken Holt.

WINs now reach over 850 AFIO members weekly. The number is growing, thanks to your help.

Please keep up the recruiting drive. Every member recruit a member in '99!


AFIO LUNCHEON 15 MARCH AT FORT MYER, VIRGINIA

Two great speakers:

Morning Speaker (11:00 - 12:00) John Koehler, author of STASI: The East German Secret Police, will discuss his book and the role of STASI in internal repression and worldwide espionage (see book review below). This will be terrific session. The author is willing to autograph his book.

Afternoon Speaker (13:00 - 14:00) : Professor Paul Goble will speak on the topic of - WHITHER RUSSIA. After the financial collapse, and with a deteriorating nuclear armament system and a disintegrating regional security system, a topic of highest importance. Russia today is in a state of severe depression, loaded with nuclear weapons, and disintegrating. Professor Goble is a recognized expert on Russia, with a longtime association with Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty. You are promised a fascinating, stimulating and enlightening presentation.

Reserve your place - send check for $26 (members) or $29 (non-members) to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, Va. 22101-4533. For further info, call 703 790 0320.


SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

RUSSIAN MILITARY AND ECONOMIC DETERIORATION - Analysts have predicted that Russia's nuclear arsenal - currently 6,000 warheads - could shrink to 600 to 800 by the year 2010. Quality is also suffering. Dozens of submarines have been decommissioned, others are inactive in harbors, and only three subs are believed to be on patrol at any one time. Bombers are obsolete and pilots are allowed too few flying hours per year to maintain combat readiness.

Russia's early warning defense are also deteriorating, raising the specter of an inadequate capability to evaluate threats and disastrous emergency decisions. US delegations are in Moscow now to address the problems of controls on nuclear materials and warning adequacy .

Russia's military deterioration is only one aspect of the problem. Russia is disintegrating. The hold of the center (Moscow) on the outposts is weakening. Severe economic problems - a depression much worse than the one the US experienced in 1929 and the thirties - is loosening the links between component regions and impacting on the general health of the population and the youth. These are pressures that may manifest itself in sales of missile and nuclear arms technology to states that are not considered in US national security interests. The role for US intelligence in monitoring this process is vital.

For Russian politicians Russia's economic problems are secondary to its loss of international prominence, adding worries about a psychological inferiority complex to the problem. As Alexander Lebed recently stated, "the only thing for which Russia is still respected in the world and which makes us worthy partners . . . is our strategic rocket forces." That is a slim reed indeed. (Wash Post 10 Feb through 25 Feb. Wtimes 11 Feb A-4) (KenH & RoyJ)

LATIN AMERICA TERRORIST ALERT - Two alleged Egyptian terrorists with ties to Gamaa Islamiya, a radical Islamic group, were recently arrested in Uruguay and Ecuador. There arrrests raised concerns from US officials that a round of terrorist attacks may occur in Latin America. Most US Embassies are already heavily protected, but US corporations with offices in Latin America are potential targets for attack. (Miami Herald 10Feb99) (KenH)

NEW NSA DIRECTOR NOMINATED - On 23 February Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen announced that the President had nominated Air Force Major General Michael V. Hayden for appointment to the grade of lieutenant general with assignment as Director, National Security Agency (NSA) and as Chief, Central Security Service (CSS). Hayden will replace Lieutenant General Kenneth Minihan, USAF, who is retiring after an illustrious intelligence career. Hayden is currently assigned as Deputy Chief of Staff, Intelligence, United Nations Command Korea. His previous assignment was as commander of the Air Force Intelligence Agency and director of the Joint Command and Control Warfare Center at Kelly Air Force Base, Texas. His resume also lists a previous position as director of defense policy and arms control at the National Security Council during the Bush Administration.

General Hayden will face challenging NSA problems in coping with new technologies and post Cold-War mission priorities impacting on communications intercepts, encryption and decryption. The increased National priorities on drugs, thugs and terrorists means that a greater variety of material in more languages must be "read." Digital communications, proliferating encryption technologies, and expansion of fiber transmission networks increase the range of technical intercept and processing problems. The workforce at NSA needs to change to a greater number of young college-grads with cutting-edge computer skills. But these problems are not new. During General Minihan's tenure, Congress has already appropriated hundreds of millions of dollars for new technologies at Fort Meade. General Hayden will have an opportunity to address interesting challenges in an area vital to national security. (Wpost 25Feb 99 p. p A21; http:/www.defenselink.mil/news/subscribe.html ) (RoyJ)

US INTELLIGENCE ROLE IN ARREST OF KURDISH LEADER - The arrest by Turkish security agents of Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan outside the Greek Embassy in Nairobi, Kenya, last week resulted in Kurdish protest demonstrations in various countries. First the Greeks, and then Israel's Mossad, were suspected by Kurds as having betrayed Ocalan's whereabouts. Finally US spokesmen vaguely hinted at US complicity, resulting in media tales that the Turks were tipped off by FBI personnel in Kenya (there to investigate the US Embassy bombing) and that the CIA had intercepted Ocalan's cellular telephone calls coming from the Greek Embassy, outlining his plans for departure. Whatever and however, US intelligence supported the Turks in finding Ocalan.

Ocalan had been on the run since October, when he had to leave Syria, his previous base of operations. Ocalan has fought Turkey, our ally, on behalf of the Kurdish minority, using guerrilla raids and kidnapping of tourists as means of getting attention, and is therefore defined as a terrorist. In Iraq we would designate him a freedom fighter. (Rome LaRepublica 19Feb99; Wpost 17 Feb p. A-12, and 21 Feb p A17) (KenH and RoyJ)


SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

CHINA BELIEVED TO HAVE STOLEN US MISSILE DESIGNS - In 1995, US officials were in the process of reviewing a 'top secret' Chinese nuclear weapons document (obtained by US spies) when they made an alarming discovery. The designs they reviewed were strikingly similar to those of US Trident missile nuclear warheads. The immediate result was the launch of an FBI counterintelligence investigation that is still ongoing.

The FBI investigation is the third such investigation concerning the loss of nuclear secrets initiated in the 1990's. The incidents have led to tightened security at DOE-run nuclear labs as well as at nuclear research labs such as Los Alamos. The increased measures include hiring former FBI agents to act as security monitors at the labs and tightening controls on foreign visitors to the labs.

Additionally, there are concerns about security leaks in email exchanges between US and Chinese scientists involved in joint arms control and non-proliferation efforts. The emails necessarily contain nuclear weapons data. (Wpost 17Feb PA7). (KenH)

CIA COUNTERINTELLIGENCE MEASURES INCREASED -- Five years after the arrest of Aldrich Ames, CIA and FBI officials believe they are better equipped to avoid penetration and to detect future moles. Focusing on the mis-communication and lack of coordination that allowed Ames to operate undetected for several years, both agencies have enacted rigorous methods to ensure another Ames situation does not occur. Currently an FBI official has unrestrained access to all CIA files and runs counterespionage operations from a permanent position inside the CIA. The CIA has tripled the amount of resources aimed at detecting internal security breaches. CIA officials are now required to submit detailed financial disclosures annually. additionally, new hires undergo more intense background investigations and lie detector tests.

The effect of these measures on employee morale has come into question. The DO has suffered as a number of case officers have quit. Stories of rough handling experienced by officers and wives, as well as college-age recruits, during recent polygraph exams, have filtered into the press, reportedly resulting in a number of initially-interested people being driven-off by the experience. Is the 'cure' being done to excess, as is almost everything in Washington? (Wpost 22Feb99, A-13 & other comments) (KenH and RoyJ)

CONVICTED CIA KILLER SEEKS REVIEW OF CASE - Claiming he was a political prisoner, Mir Amal Kasi has asked for his case to be reviewed by the International Court of Justice. Kasi, sentenced to death for the slaying of two CIA employees in January 1993, feels he did "his moral duty by attacking the CIA." He said his actual goal had been to kill the DCI. He stated that he would exhaust all his appeals because if he "didn't fight until the last moment, it would be like suicide." http://www.washington post.com/wp-srv/digest/nat002.htm (KenH)


SECTION III BOOK REVIEWS

 STASI: The Untold Story of the East German Secret Police, by John O. Koehler, 480 pages, Westview Press 1999, ISBN 0-8133-3409-8. Drawing on his own extensive experience as associated Press Bureau Chief in Berlin during the Cold War, interviews with former STASI officers as well as victims of oppression, STASI documents and US intelligence sources, Koehler recounts tales that contribute to understanding but sometimes read like Hollywood spy thrillers. He reviews Stasi activities within East and West Germany, ranging from internal repression to international espionage, terrorism,and clandestine operations, extending as far afield as Latin America and Africa.

Recommended (RoyJ).

 THE HAUNTED WOOD: Soviet Espionage in America - The Stalin Era, by Allen Weinstein and Alexander Vassiliev, Random House, 1999. This book is based on unique access to Russian intelligence files (abruptly closed in 1995), US/Russian cooperation between the authors, and the DCI release of thousands of intercepted and de-crypted NKVD messages (VENONA cables). The authors were often able to match up the decrypted messages (often incomplete) with the originals. It is the story of the extensive and pervasive Soviet network of spies and agents of influence in the United States from 1934 until 1945 -- a "golden age" of Soviet espionage -- but also showing that Soviet intelligence was never immune to bureaucratic incompetence or wackiness.

After the war and the defeat of the Nazis, along with the beginning of the Cold War, the ideological motivation of many network members dissipated while the US went through the public process of reversing the wartime pro-Soviet policies and propaganda. If the process was painful for the spies and "fellow travelers," it reflected the justified outrage at the extent of espionage and treason to which America had been subjected. The Soviets were never able to rebuild the network. And the big spy stories, as this book authoritatively posits, are again confirmed as true. Recommended reading. (RoyJ)


SECTION IV BULLETIN BOARD

PROFESSIONAL CONNECTIONS IN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY (PCIC) - a Conference on 25 March for intelligence professionals, with briefings, workshops on job-hunting, hiring trends, authors, placement experts and industry and government exhibits, and information on public and private sector organizations that hire within or support the Intelligence Community.

A must for those in career transition. Program includes Deputy Directors from NSA, DIA, NIMA, DDCI/Community Management; a CIA panel and industry roundtable; exhibitors for job-search tips, talent scouts etc.

DATE: Thursday 25 March 99, from 0750 - 1700 hrs. . PLACE: Hilton Mark Center (formerly Radisson Plaza), Alexandria, Va. Cost: $60. REGISTRATION: email pcic@pcic.net or call Lori Tugman 703 379 8400. (RoyJ)

INTELLIGENCE: TRUMP CARD IN DIPLOMACY AND WAR . The SMITHSONIAN will conduct a series of six lectures on intelligence on Thursdays at 8 pm, from April 22 to May 27, at the Smithsonian Campus in Washington DC.

Speakers include senior former intelligence officers, not only from the FBI, CIA, DIA, and OSD, but also from the KGB (represented by Stalislav Levchenko and Oleg Kalugin). Cost is $96, less for Smithsonian members ($72). Request tickets online www.si.edu/tsa/rap or call 202 357 3030 (between 9 and 5 EST). This public educational effort deserves AFIO support - spread the word! (RoyJ)

SAN ANTONIO CONFERENCE - The AFIO Alamo Chapter, in ground-breaking cooperation with the World Affairs Council (WAC) in San Antonio, Texas, sponsored a three-day long visit by Douglas J. Maceachin (CIA ret), author of a CSI Monograph on "The Final Months of the War with Japan: Signals Intelligence, US Invasion Planning and the A-Bomb Decision." The catalyst for this successful multi-organizational event was Alamo Chapter member Mike Abshire (CIA ret), Chairman of AFIO's Chapter Presidents' Council, diplomat level member of the WAC, and CSI associate.

On Monday 8 February Mr. Maceachin spoke at the USAF Air Intelligence Agency (AIA) at Kelly AFB as part of a program organized by Robert Weidman, DCI representative at AIA, and William Ellerson (AIA ret), and was briefed on AIA systems and projects. On Wednesday Mr. Maceachin addressed a joint AFIO /WAC luncheon group of well over 200 individuals, including select students from ten local highschools, at the Hyatt Regency hotel (on the riverwalk). The visit was a resounding success in that it not only gave positive visibility to AFIO, the National Intelligence Community and CIA, but also was a successful educational outreach to serving professionals, the general public, and students. WELL DONE ALAMO!

For membership in the Alamo Chapter, contact Col (ret) Henry Bussey hmbus@texas.net (RoyJ)

TEACHING HELP: AFIO member who is teaching a course on the 'American Intelligence Community' for The Washington Center would welcome intelligence professionals willing to speak to students by phone or in person. The Center is a Washington DC non-profit organization which arranges internships for undergraduates from various colleges and universities. Contact holsjon@hotmail.com. (RoyJ)

EMPLOYMENT

Small non-profit organization investigating 'globalization' problems such as financial instability and organized crime, is looking for an Executive Assistant to coordinate a range of programs, possessing skills in communicating, computers and organization of administration. Send resume to Box 112, 1718 M Street NW, Washington DC 20036. (RoyJ)

Security Project Officer wanted, to advise senior managers on development, implementation and monitoring of Department of State programs (Local Guard and Residential Security), including conducting on-site reviews and travel to foreign posts. Contact afio@afio.com, reference folder E-4.

Security Officer - Individual with two decades experience in security management, fraud investigation, security operations , security training (domestic and in Africa and Latin America) and executive protection, looking for position. Willing to travel. Spanish foreign language capability. Contact afio@afio.com Ref folder J-120.

IN MEMORIAM

EDWIN C FISHEL, NSA official, author and jazz musician, and longtime AFIO member, died February 11, 1999, at his home in Arlington, Va. at the age of 84, after suffering from Parkinson's disease for a number of years. Mr Fishel started with the Army Signals Intelligence Service during World War II, stationed in Arlington Hall, where he was a cryptographic analyst. He served with NSA from 1947 until 1972. He became a renowned jazz musician as a pianist and musical arranger for professional Washington area jazz groups. In addition he did Civil War research that resulted in his 1996 publication of "The Secret War for the Union," which provided an intelligence perspective on battles in 1861 through 1863. We mourn the loss and salute a talented colleague who truly led a full life. (RoyJ)


AFIO members: Your encouragement and participation is the basis for AFIO's success. We need each and everyone of you in fulfilling our educational mission of building of a public and leadership constituency for a strong and healthy US intelligence capability.

Each member, contributing to the mission according to his or her capability, is vitally important. If you can, recruit a new member or associate member in'99.

 YOUR MISSION: RECRUIT A NEW MEMBER in '99!

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