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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #09-99, 3 March 1999

AFIO members: Your encouragement and participation is the basis for AFIO's success. We need each and everyone of you - to fulfill our educational mission of building of a public and leadership constituency for a strong and healthy US intelligence capability.

Each member, contributing to the mission according to his or her capability, is vitally important. If you can, recruit a new member or associate member in'99.

With your help, membership is rising - this WIN now goes to 860 members - ten more than last week, almost one-third of our total membership. Keep them coming!


LAST CALL: AFIO LUNCHEON AT FORT MYER, VIRGINIA, MARCH 15, 1999

Morning Speaker (11:00 - 12:00) AFIO member John Koehler, author of STASI: The East German Secret Police, will discuss his book and the role of STASI in internal repression and worldwide espionage (see book review below). The author will autograph books.

Afternoon Speaker (13:00 - 14:00) : Professor Paul Goble will speak on the topic of - WHITHER RUSSIA. Professor Goble is a recognized expert on Russia, with a longtime association with Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty. You are promised a fascinating, stimulating and enlightening presentation.

Reserve your place - send check for $26 (members) or $29 (non-members) to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, Va. 22101-4533. For further info, call 703 790 0320.


SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

UNSCOM AND US INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS IN IRAQ - Recent media allegations claimed that US intelligence surreptitiously rigged UNSCOM offices and remote communication relays with equipment designed to intercept Iraqi communications and to disseminate the yield to overhead platforms . The US Government has denied it. The US would have been remiss however, if it had not done what others (Brits, French, Israelis, Russians) undoubtedly were doing in Iraq under the UNSCOM flag, for their own national interests. The notion of a UN inspection commission as a group of angelic virgins is not quite credible in the real world, but the publicity is not helpful for diplomacy or public policy.

UNSCOM covered distant Iraqi sites, such as weapons facilities, by remote video monitors delivering real-time 24-hour coverage through a hilltop-to-hilltop microwave communication system back to UNSCOM headquarters in Baghdad. The monitoring and communications equipment were installed by US personnel. The system was said to have contained a capability for burst communications to overhead reconnaissance intelligence receptors. Iranian intelligence agents supposedly detected these encrypted burst communications and correlated them with American U-2 flights, concluding that the US was running a special SIGINT operation. The Iranian agent's message to Tehran was said to have been intercepted by the British.

Chief UN weapons inspector Richard Butler stated that he had no knowledge of such an operation and had not approved it -- unlike another intelligence collection operation called "Shake the Tree," which intercepted low-powered radio transmissions used by Iraq in concealment programs. That operation was known to him and other high level UN personnel.

Butler said the publicity about the US special intercept operation was unhelpful and should not be used to jeopardize future arms control in Iraq. It plays into the hands of Baghdad, which has long accused the US of using UNSCOM as a cover for espionage operations. It would be most interesting to find out who provided this information / disinformation / misinfomation to the media and why.

As a further footnote, Butler also criticized Scott Ritter, the former UNSCOM inspector, calling him a "loose cannon on deck who has done us serious harm." Ritter had been quoted quoted as saying that the US worked the Iraqi intercept operation in conjunction with other nations under the UKUSA umbrella, and that the US therefore had "proxies" working for them within UNSCOM. It may be noted that this piece of media publicity coincided with the release of Ritter's new book called "Endgame." (Wpost 2 Mar 99, A-1; Reuters Ltd 4 Mar 99; Village Voice 24 Feb99 - 2 Mar99) (RoyJ & KenH)

DCI VIEW OF NATIONAL SECURITY THREATS - In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on 2 February 1999, DCI George Tenet covered THE THREAT - all the elements on the world scene that could threaten US interests and the well-being of its citizens, in justification for Intelligence budget requests. The entire text will be provided to members in the next Periscope.

The DCI started with transnational issues, beginning with those grouped under the rubric of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), discussing concerns about nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and chemical and biological warfare capabilities and controls in respect to Russia, China, North Korea, India, Pakistan and Iran.

He then progressed to terrorism, citing the contemporary bogeyman, Bin Laden, now holed up somewhere in Afghanistan, international narcotics (Colombia) and organized crime ( Russia), and Information Warfare, including the Y2K problem.

Finally he discussed general conditions and threats to world stability in Russia, China, North Korea, Iraq, Iran, the Indian subcontinent, the Balkans, the Aegean, Haiti and Africa.

He summarized as follows: " The questions are growing in number, the problems are more complex, and the issues are increasingly tangled together in intricate patterns. Many of our targets are paying closer attention to information security, and many are adding emphasis and resources to deny and deceive our intelligence gathering capabilities. Moreover, media leaks give our adversaries a roadmap to find and defeat our sources and methods."

The DCI concluded by saying that "our overarching aim is to ensure that our nation has the intelligence it needs to anticipate and counter the threats I have discussed..."

(C-span, transcript, and reprint in the SASA Colloquy February 99) (RoyJ)

HACKERS SEIZE UK MILITARY SATELLITE ??? - Unnamed UK security sources were cited in press reports about hackers allegedly changing a satellite's course and thereafter issuing a blackmail threat in mid-February. If true, this would be a serious matter. Neither police nor the Ministry of Defence would comment, however, and the incident reads too much like an exercise training scenario of pre-attack interference with military communications. Potentially interesting, but rating no more than F-6 at this time. (Reuters, London) 1 March 99) (RoyJ) (courtesy Alan Fields)


SECTION II CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY MANAGEMENT STAFF - DCI George Tenet is strengthening the ICM staff in an effort to improve coordination of collection, analysis and dissemination of intelligence among the agencies and departments constituting the intelligence community. A 'senior intelligence official' stated that Tenet used his first year to get control of CIA and is moving out in the second year to expand his reach to the intelligence community and the articulation of a common goal of where it is going.

Tenet has ordered the development of a "strategic intent of the intelligence community" paper, and has made careful personnel appointments to address the problem. With the additional authority provided by 1996 legislation, Tenet has filled the post of Deputy Director for Community Management with Joan A. Dempsey, who spent her career in Defense intelligence. He also appointed Charles Allen, former CIA warning center chief, as Assistant Director for Collection (acting) to coordinate the community's signals, imagery and human intelligence collection systems to avoid unnecessary duplication or gaps in coverage.

The last CIA director who tried to strengthen his control over the intelligence community was John M. Deutch, who, in the end, had little impact -- not unusual for Washington, where most change is at the margin.

In a recent Senate confirmation hearing, the DCI's choice of Assistant Director for Administration, James M. Simon Jr., criticized the past role of the ICM. He attributed this partly to poor or incomplete data supplied to them (or withheld completely) by CIA and the Pentagon, and partly to the quality of many of the ICM personnel he castigated as " retired in place" etc.etc. His testimony further referenced parochialism, excessive classification and "foolish compartmentalization," and stated his goal of establishing a central repository for special compartmented information. As an example he cited the recently introduced joint CIA and Pentagon (DIA) system for keeping track of clandestine operations abroad is a concept "we need now to extend . . . throughout the community." There are obviously good reasons for proceeding on this path, but also serious concerns about putting all our eggs in one basket in terms of the ever-present risk of insider compromise or treason. But one can count on the participants to draw attention to this risk. DCI success is by no means a given. (Wpost, 12 Feb 99, Walter Pincus) (RoyJ).


SECTION III BOOK REVIEWS

COUNTERFEIT SPIES: Genuine or Bogus? by Nigel West, Little Brown, London 1999. ISBN 0 7515 2670 3. Subtitled "An astonishing Investigation into Secret Agents of the Second World War," this latest book by the master of British authors on espionage takes a different cut at the history of espionage - an analysis of how spy stories have been manipulated - some used to provide plausible cover for other types of intelligence operations and methods that needed protection, others forgeries to support propaganda themes, and yet others manufactured by journalists and others and foisted off on a gullible public. Nigel West evaluates the claims and the stories - sorting the wheat from the chaff in a fascinating recital of cases

Among others he examines the remarkable mythology about the French resistance -- - after the war DeGaulle's people were astonished to find that an extraordinary sixteen million French people had been in the resistance, a peculiar post-liberation phenomenon to which I can also attest from personal experience in a different country. And there are some remarkable facts about Sir William Stevenson, celebrated in "A Man Called Intrepid. But read it for yourself. And incidentally, you will note that in the acknowledgment section the author cites AFIO member Hayden Peake at the top of the list, for his "encyclopedic knowledge of the subject." If espionage literature is your game, this is a "must read." (RoyJ)

AMERICA'S ACHILLES HEEL: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Terrorism and Covert Attack - by Richard Falkenrath, Robert Newman and Bradley Thayer, MIT Press, 1999, $22.50. This small book by a Harvard professor and his co--authors is both reassuring and sounding an alarm bell. By using a methodical (dry) mechanistic approach to dissecting terrorism, they establish limitations on terrorism and its goals as well as production and employment. Political reality dictate limits on terrorist capabilities even in "rogue" states - or they may be used against themselves by the terrorist groups. There are special hazards in the production and handling of unconventional materials, and most potential attackers "lack the resources, knowledge, and skill required to exploit fully the openings that exist."

On the other hand, the economic, educational and technological barriers to producing these weapons are eroding, and detecting a covert attack remains difficult. And the attack may come from elements within rather than necessarily from outside the country. The authors conclude with a steps to reduce the likelihood of successful terrorist attacks. Strategic planning (recognizing the problem), Intelligence and threat identification are top priorities. Human Intelligence (HUMINT) is an essential component. The authors demonstrate that the topic can be intelligently discussed in other terms than media, bureaucratic or political theater and hype, and that the threat can be reduced by sustained effort, attention to detail, and patient application of multiple and sustained deterrent measures. It appears that those type of efforts are underway. (Reviewed by Jody Robinson in WTimes 13 Feb, pA19) (RoyJ)


SECTION IV BULLETIN BOARD

SECRETARY TO THE BOARD WANTED - The Chairman of the Board of Directors has put out a call for a volunteer to serve as the Secretary to the Board.

Duties involve creating the agenda for each meeting in coordination with the Chairman and Committee chairmen as well as with the President and the Executive Director; keeping notes of Board proceedings and resolutions; and providing the resulting Minutes of the meetings to the Chairman on a timely basis. The Board meets quarterly. The position could also include functioning as parliamentarian and Bylaws expert, depending on individual interest. Please contact Chairman William Kvetkas wjkvetkas@aol.com.

FIRST ANNUAL AFIO SYMPOSIUM ON BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE AND LAW - -

One-day, 25 MAY 1999 from 8:30 a.m. (registration) until 6:30 p.m.(end of reception mixer), HOLIDAY INN HOTEL, Rosslyn, Virginia

Distinguished speakers include the Honorable Royce Lamberth (Presiding Judge, National Surveillance Court - invited), Hon. Elizabeth Rindskopf, Esq (invited), Professor James Chandler (invited) , Edward O'Malley, Rosemary Lark, Theodore Shackley, Neil Livingstone, Gary Stubblefield, and Bob Quigley. The agenda deals with economic espionage, cryptology, intellectual property, business secrets, business intelligence, business terrorism, judicial perspectives, enforcement issues and preemptive strategies and case studies.

Symposium Chairman: THOMAS SPENCER, Esq., member of the AFIO Board of Directors.

Agenda and registration package provided on request. afio@afio.com. Hosted by the OSS Symposium. (RoyJ)

PROFESSIONAL CONNECTIONS IN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY (PCIC) - a Conference on 25 March for intelligence professionals, with briefings, workshops on job-hunting, hiring trends, authors, placement experts and industry and government exhibits, and information on public and private sector organizations that hire within or support the Intelligence Community.

A must for those in career transition. Program includes Deputy Directors from NSA, DIA, NIMA, DDCI/Community Management; a CIA panel and industry roundtable; exhibitors for job-search tips, talent scouts etc.

DATE: Thursday 25 March 99, from 0750 - 1700 hrs. . PLACE: Hilton Mark Center (formerly Radisson Plaza), Alexandria, Va. Cost: $60. REGISTRATION: email pcic@pcic.net or call Lori Tugman 703 379 8400. (RoyJ)

INTELLIGENCE: TRUMP CARD IN DIPLOMACY AND WAR . The SMITHSONIAN will conduct a series of six lectures on intelligence on Thursdays at 8 pm, from April 22 to May 27, at the Smithsonian Campus in Washington DC.

Speakers include senior former intelligence officers, not only from the FBI, CIA, DIA, and OSD, but also from the KGB (represented by Stalislav Levchenko and Oleg Kalugin). Cost is $96, less for Smithsonian members ($72). Request tickets online www.si.edu/tsa/rap or call 202 357 3030 (between 9 and 5 EST). This public educational effort deserves AFIO support - spread the word! (RoyJ)

GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE MONTHLY - a new intelligence publication of the Condor-Weatherford Group headed by AFIO member Michael Ryan (President), provides a monthly review of worldwide intelligence news and features for an annual subscription of $45 per year (including a $5.00 tax-deductible contribution to AFIO). Inputs from AFIO members are invited. This month features include articles on "openness' of the intelligence budget, another battle over intelligence budget disclosures, a Greek intelligence shakeup after the Ocalan debacle, and problems in Czech intelligence, among others. A nice AFIO "ad" is also included.

Another publication available is "Intelligence ChronoLine '98", containing day-by- day capsules of major global intelligence news events during 1998, a valuable and useful reference source book. This annual is available for $20, including s&h. Contact Michael Ryan at thecondor@sisna.com (RoyJ)

EMPLOYMENT

Executive Assistant wanted - Small non-profit organization investigating 'globalization' problems such as financial instability and organized crime, is looking for an Executive Assistant to coordinate a range of programs, possessing skills in communicating, computers and organization of administration. Send resume to Box 112, 1718 M Street NW, Washington DC 20036. (RoyJ)

Security Project Officer wanted, to advise senior managers on development, implementation and monitoring of Department of State programs (Local Guard and Residential Security), including conducting on-site reviews and travel to foreign posts. Contact afio@afio.com, reference folder E-4.

Security Officer available - Individual with two decades experience in security management, fraud investigation, security operations , security training (domestic and in Africa and Latin America) and executive protection, looking for position. Willing to travel. Spanish foreign language capability. Contact afio@afio.com Ref folder J-120.

IN MEMORIAM

Eleazer Andrews "Lee" Williams, an AFIO Life member, passed away in Washington DC on February 24 at the Georgetown University Hospital at the age of 75. Lee Williams served in the Army during WWII in the European campaign. He was wounded in France and participated in the Battle of the Bulge when he found himself doing duty as a combat infantryman rather than what he was trained to do - being a Morse code operator. He left active duty as a commissioned officer in 1946 and later retired from the Army reserves as a colonel. He graduated from Princeton University in 1949, and then attended Harvard Law School before joining the State Department in 1952. Subsequently he joined the CIA in 1954, serving in many overseas assignments, retiring in 1978.

We salute a valued colleague who stepped up to do the full measure of his duty and made a lifelong contribution to national security. (RoyJ)


WINs contain commentaries researched and produced by Editor and AFIO Executive Director Roy Jonkers. If this WIN is a few days late, it is because of the many AFIO projects that we are launching - and bear with me!

Research assistance for this WIN was provided by graduate student Ken Holt.

WINs are protected by copyright laws and may not be disseminated in whole or part without permission of the AFIO Executive Director, except for single instances for purposes of recruiting a new member.

AFIO MEMBERS: RECRUIT A NEW MEMBER in '99!

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