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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #10-99, 10 March 99

WINs are produced and edited by the AFIO Executive Director, Roy Jonkers. WINs are protected by copyright laws and re-transmission is not permitteded without specific AFIO concurrence.

This AFIO WIN was researched andprepared by Dr. John Macartney, jdmac@erols.com


SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

ISA CONVENTION NOTES - In mid-February, John Macartney participated in the annual convention of the International Studies Association in Washington, DC. Some 4000 international relations professors gathered and listened to hundreds of panels. He picked up the following "tidbits"on or about intelligence:

- most senior officials think there is too much SMO ( support to military operations) and not enough strategic intelligence for senior policymakers.

- George Tenet is considered a popular and successful DCI

- whereas covert action (CA) used to take up a great deal of the House Intelligence Committee's (HPSCI's) time, it now gets attention more in keeping with spending for CA, which is "less, much less, than 1% of the intelligence budget."

- analysis takes up only 6% of the IC budget, and needs to be increased; everyone pays lip service to that, but year after year Administrations request, and Congress appropriates, more money for collection systems without providing for analysis. Why? Spy satellites are nifty, while rooms full of scholars (analysts) are not very exciting.

- encryption and access problems (fiber optics) are seriously degrading SIGINT. The best solutions to that involve using HUMINT to support SIGINT (by stealing codes, placing remote sensors, etc).

- Also, SIGINT has long been concerned with intercepting or protecting information "in motion," that is information being transmitted. In the information age, however, there are vast quantities of information "at rest" in computerized data bases and on hard disks. Increasingly, it is going to be "information at rest" that will become the target of SIGINT -- which implies a whole re-design and re-capitalization of the SIGINT business.

- there has been a 17% reduction in all IC personnel since the Cold War and a 21% reduction in military intelligence personnel

- biggest budget shortfall is need for funds to hire more, and better qualified, analysts

- the 50% cut in State Dept funding over the last decade has hurt intelligence. Why? Because embassies serve, among other things, as "intelligence platforms" -- that is, Defense Attaches as well as CIA and, sometimes, other intelligence entities are located in embassies. Also, regular diplomatic reporting amounts to intelligence. So when you close embassies and consulates, as this country has been doing, you get less intelligence. Quite a bit less.

- CIA is hiring and has received over 15,000 applications just since September. Those actually coming aboard are extremely well qualified. Most are in their late 20's or early 30's and have experience abroad. Almost half are fluent in a foreign language, many come from other than western European backgrounds. And most of them were already employed in the private sector when hired by CIA and had to take substantial pay cuts, up to 40%, to join the Agency.

- the Counterterrorism center is enormously successful and a good example of multiple bureacracies working together

- number one priority for US intelligence is proliferation; after that comes crime and drugs, info warfare and then Russian and Chinese transitions

- there is a big imbalance between imaging systems and imagery analysts; that is, US intelligence takes far more images (photos) than anyone ever looks at

- in the future, the government will purchase most of the satellite imagery it needs from commercial sources; it may also start outsourcing imagery analysis;

- already, I understand, some DIA HUMINT collection managers are contractor employees -- expect to see more and more such "outsourcing"

- HUMINT needs to be redesigned and reorganized, some say, switching from case officers under official cover serving 3 or 4 year tours to non-official cover officers (NOC's) who remain in one assignment for years, perhaps for an entire career. At the same time, case officers should not be in such a hierarchical environment.

- intelligence has, in general, become to bureaucratized and too risk adverse.

- more than anything, the IC needs more understanding and support from the public

- analysts from different agencies are too insulated -- do not confer enough with one another and with non-govt experts

- there is now an Environmental Intelligence Center and at least 50 analysts are working the "environmental account" full time (the technology & proliferation of cruise missiles, in contrast, has just one fully dedicated analyst position) (JohnMac)

FOUR RECENT MEDIA INTELLIGENCE "SCANDALS" - Four intelligence scandals blew up in the past week or so: (1) A US intelligence collection operation in Iraq; (2) Chinese theft of nuclear weapons secrets from Los Alamos; (3) the claim that Israel's Mossad had taped Clinton having phone sex with Monica Lewinsky and was using it to blackmail Clinton into stopping a mole hunt for an Israeli agent in the White House; and (4) suspicion that Greece had traded US and NATO jamming codes to the Russians. However true or false each of these is, their near simultaneous appearance suggests one or more leakers may have launched a campaign against the Clinton White House. http://www.stratfor.com (JohnMac)

CIA INFILTRATED UNSCOM? (Ed. Note: another take on the story told in last week's WIN) According to a lengthy and rather sensational front page story in the 2Mar99 Washington Post by Barton Gellman, the US was using the UN inspection teams in Iraq for US (not UN) intelligence purposes. In addition to intelligence operations the US conducted to assist the UN inspectors, there was another even more secret clandestine SIGINT operation that UN officials did not know about, according to the Post.

The former operation was revealed in the press last month and acknowledged by both US and UN officials. It was operated by the UN and the US in concert and for the purpose of carrying out the UN mandate of trying to locate Iraq's hidden weapons of mass destruction.

The second operation, if true, is different -- CIA DO officers, the Post says, secretly placed remote clandestine NSA SIGINT sensors in conjunction with UN communications installations. The "take" from these sensors, apparently, was not shared with the UN and did not relate to the UNSCOM inspection mission. The article also says that an Iranian spy in Bagdad had apparently caught on to all this when he detected "burst transmissions" from the clandestine American sensors that coincided with U-2 overflights. Furthermore, according to the article, the Iranian spy's transmission back to Teheran reporting his discovery was intercepted by British intelligence -- tipping London off about the US operation. US officials have declined comment on this story, while Kofi Anan, the UN General Secretary, issued a statement saying that if the story is true it will complicate future arms control efforts.

An article that appeared in the Village Voice on February 24th seems to have broken this story before the Washington Post got to it on March 2nd. The Village Voice article, among other things, alleges an Australian connection and provides details about what it calls the "Special Collection Service," a joint CIA-NSA organization that, according to the Voice, operates clandestine SIGINT sensors. The Voice has many other details about NSA and SIGINT.

Comment: In my view, this UNSCOM story seems to be an unfortunate disclosure of very sensitive classified information and may have been based on leaks from inside the US intelligence community, perhaps from NSA. The damage here is mostly to UN and US foreign policy and arms control goals rather than to US intelligence sources and methods -- apparently these sensors are no longer operative. But this revelation makes Saddam into a "victim" and that, in turn, is going to make it much harder for the US to get the UN or our allies to go along with future inspections or sanctions. Also, it is going to give other rogue states and proliferators, like North Korea, an excuse to avoid future inspection regimes. Bad news. Also, if the articles are true, they compromise US and British SIGINT capabilities (as well as Iranian). The Village Voice and the Post have gored everyone's ox -- and for what purpose? --(JohnMac)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/daily/march99/unscom2.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/iraq/iraq2.htm
http://www.villagevoice.com/features/9908/vest_madsen.shtml

CHINESE ESPIONAGE BRUSHED UNDER RUG ? -- A lengthy story in the March 6 NY Times tells more about Chinese espionage at the Los Alamos nuclear facility in New Mexico. According to the article, the Chinese apparently got critical nuclear technology from the US weapons lab at Los Alamos in the mid-1980's that enabled them to miniaturize their nuclear warheads as well as produce "neutron bombs. The theft wasn't discovered until the mid-1990's. While this matter was in the press a month ago, the new media charge is that policymakers did not want to hear about it nor did they want Congress to get it. Why? Because the info would clash with the Administration's policy of cultivating good relations with China. Also, the Clinton is vulnerable on this because of charges they accepted campaign contributions from Chinese intelligence in 1996.

In any event, according to the NY Times, no action was taken for nearly 2 years to tighten lax security at the national labs. Meanwhile, a Chinese-American computer scientist at Los Alamos who was and is suspected of espionage continued to work and hold the highest security clearances. Also, CIA was asked to prepare a report to the findings of espionage by Energy Dept counterintelligence analysts. Notra Trulock, the long time head of DOE intelligence, was apparently demoted -- possibly for providing to Congress information about Chinese espionage that the White House did not want circulated. Finally, in late 1998 the House intelligence committee held hearings on the matter, and the Energy Dept has thoroughly revamped security at its labs.

DAMAGE: Some officials are comparing this case to the Rosenbergs and the atomic spies of the 1940's (also at Los Alamos), and Paul Redmond, CIA's recently retired chief of counterintelligence is quoted as saying, "This was far more damaging to the national security than Aldrich Ames." The Senate intelligence committee is going to hold hearings..(JohnMac).

http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/asia/030699china-nuke.html http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/asia/030899china-nukes.html http://cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9903/07/china.nuclear.02/
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-03/08/065l-030899-idx.html http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-03/07/189l-030799-idx.html http://www.nytimes.com/library/opinion/safire/030899safi.html

DID ISRAEL BLACKMAIL CLINTON WITH MONICA TAPES? A new book claims that the Mossad was tapping Monica Lewinsky's phone and recorded some of her "phone-sex" sessions with the President, which then may have been used to put pressure on Clinton. The book, 'Gideon's Spies: The Secret History of the Mossad,' by Gordon Thomas, which will be out this week from St Martin's press, says Tel Aviv may have used the tapes to stop the probe of an Israeli spy, code-named "MEGA," who was, and could still be, in the White House.

Both Israel and the White House deny this story, but Monica (who held an SCI clearance at the Pentagon!!!!!!) did testify under oath that the President had once warned her that a foreign embassy was tapping the two phone lines in her DC apartment.(JohnMac) http://www.nypostonline.com/news/4016.htm.

DID GREECE LEAK NATO CODES TO RUSSIA? The Clinton administration cut off arms sales to Greece early this month because of suspicions in the Pentagon that the Greeks had supplied secret NATO aircraft jamming codes to Russia, according to administration officials and other sources. http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-02/27/103l-022799-idx.html


SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

SUDANESE PHARMACEUTICAL PLANT. A Saudi businessman whose pharmaceutical plant in Sudan was destroyed by a US missile attack last August is launching a legal counterattack with a lawsuit contending that the Treasury Department unlawfully froze $24 million in his bank accounts immediately after the missile strike.  The suit alleges that his funds on deposit in London were frozen without designating him a terrorist or formally declaring he is linked to a designated terrorist, as the law demands. There also may be a second lawsuit seeking payment for the destroyed plant. In order to defend against either or both lawsuits, the US may be required to release to the court intelligence sources & methods used to tie the plant to nerve gas production and the businessman to bin Laden. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-02/26/004l-022699-idx.html and http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/africa/020999sudan-plant.html

CIA AFTER ALDRICH AMES. The Feb 22 Washington Post had an interesting article on the CIA 5 years after the arrest of Ames Among other things, it tells how investigators finally caught onto Ames, details counterintelligence reforms instituted in the aftermath, and also says Agency morale is still suffering 5 years after the fact. (JohnMac) http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-02/22/094l-022299-idx.html

TRACK ME - BOMB ME. (Interesting if true) According to an e-mail of dubious reliability that I recently received, Microchip Technologies Inc. has developed a new low cost RF chip which emits a 154 bit code when illuminated with a 13.56 MHz signal. The chip is intended to locate lost packages and airline baggage. However, the same R/F signaling features can be used to secretly track people. It could be placed inside autos or put in electronic items such cellular phones. One source noted the chip R/F generators can be made powerful enough to disable the electronic ignition in a car or ruin the computer in which it is installed. The intention is to provide law enforcement with the ability to remotely disable vehicles, computers or handguns made with advanced electronic safety mechanisms.

During the Gulf war, the doubtful report says, US forces were able to locate Iraqi command posts because of a similar R/F emitter chip secretly deployed by the NSA. The so called "bomb-me" chip was installed in printers sold to Iraqi air defense units. The chip emitted a coded radio signal in the Gigahertz range whenever the printer was in use. During the war, USAF R/F intelligence aircraft were able to pin-point the faint signals from the "bomb-me" chips and pass on the printer locations to F-117A Stealth bombers. http://www.softwar.net (JohnMac)

BRITISH INTELLIGENCE REVELATIONS. M.I.6, the British intelligence service, suffered a blow as yet another of its agents has disclosed sensitive secrets.  The agent's revelations - identifying spies and describing MI6 front companies and covert operations - will further alarm the spymasters in Whitehall. They are still reeling from the damage inflicted by David Shayler and Richard Tomlinson, the other former spies who went public and the "naming and shaming" of the MI6 chief in Prague. The latest disclosure reveals how a Russian spy ring has penetrated the operations of Barclays Bank and the London gold and metals markets. (contributed by Fred Wettering) http://www.lineone.net/sundaytimes/99/02/21/news/britain/stinwenws01042-d.fhtml.

CIA GLOBAL RESPONSE CENTER. In the CIA's new , high-tech, Tom Clanceyesque command post in suburban Virginia, CIA workers are busy with the agency's newest weapon against terrorism -- the tactic of disruption. They pore over lists of names and photographs of terrorism suspects, and work with international law-enforcement services to prevent attacks around the world. Typically, a disruption operation begins with a scrap of information -- an intercepted cell phone call, word that a known terrorist has crossed into another country, a report from a field surveillance team. The CIA might provide evidence, for instance, for a legal pretext for arrest, such as information that a terrorist cell crossed a border with false papers or illegal arms. (JohnMac) http://cnn.com:80/US/9903/01/cia.terrorism/index.html


SECTION III - BOOKS & REPORTS

ADMIRAL JEREMIAH & RUMSFELD REPORTS. I recently heard a senior and much respected intelligence officer say that the Intelligence Community is on the verge of major changes and substantial rebuilding. "Looking back 20 or 30 years from now," he said, "people will see the recent reports by the Jeremiah Panel on the IC's failure to forecast the 1998 Indian nuclear test, and the Rumsfeld Commission report on the ballistic missile threat, as very important watershed documents. Strong words those. Nevertheless, you might take a second look at those 1998 documents. The full text of the Rumsfeld Report is the first link, below. The Jeremiah Report remains classified, but the text of a press conference that accompanied the report is at the second link, below. (Johmac) http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/bm-threat.htm http://www.fas.org/irp/cia/product/jeremiah.html

 

SCOTT RITTER'S Book, "Endgame," will be something of a bombshell when it comes out, probably in early April. It will detail US and Israeli intelligence cooperation with the UN and blast President Clinton and SecState Madeleine Albright foreign policy. It may also provoke another court test of prepublication review requirements for holders of SCI security clearances. (Johnmac)

http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/mideast/022499iraq-ritter.html http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/global/022399ritter-book.html

GORDON THOMAS, Gideon's Spies: The Secret History of the Mossad, St Martin's press, 1999. Just out, this is the book that, among other things, claims that Israeli intelligence was tapping into Monica Lewinsky's "telephone-sex" talks with President Clinton. (not reviewed)


SECTION IV - BULLETIN BOARD

OFFICE SPACE AVAILABLE -- AFIO is looking for an "organizationally compatible" renter for a 400 square ft office (including 2 small offices, reception area and a meeting/conference area) - and another possible 100 sq. ft storage space - available 1 April 99 in our AFIO suite in central McLean, Virginia. Please get in touch with us if interested. (afio@afio.com) or tel 703 790 0320. (RoyJ)

WRITERS WANTED! The next issue of AFIO's academic newsletter, the "Intelligencer," will be put together in April and mailed out in May. WE ARE SOLICITING ARTICLES & BOOK REVIEWS

Almost any subject that pertains to the intelligence business past or present is welcome, although we favor those pertaining to: teaching intelligence in colleges and universities ongoing issues and developments in intelligence history pertaining to intelligence Brevity is important in our limited space format, and we prefer articles of 1000 to 3000 words. Submit by e-mail to jdmac@erols.com Let us hear from you...

PCIC SYMPOSIUM The third big PCIC symsposium is coming up: 25 March 1999,this time at the Hilton Alexandria Mark Center (formerly Radisson Plaza) onSeminary Road just off I-395 at Exit 4.

"Professional Connections in the Intelligence Community" is a one-day, symposium on career development for intelligence & security professionals. Included will be a workshop, three discussion panels, nine seminars and many exhibits by Government and Industry talent scouts and recruiters. It's a big program, with lot's of top-notch speakers, forcing some tough choices on which sessions to attend.

This is NOT another "TechNet" for C++ twinks, this career fair is geared to experienced and upwardly mobile Intelligence Analysts & Operators.

The first two PCIC events held in May and Nov 1998 were GREAT, according to folks who were there, many of whom attended BOTH events.

The website provides full details on who/what/when/where and why.
http://www.pcic.net or call Lori Tugman, 202 767 6862 (RoyJ)

Please pass the word, this might benefit an Intel-type person you know.


"HEADS UP" SCHEDULE OF EVENTS OF INTEREST

NOTE: If you know of an event coming up in the next 12 months that should be added to this list, PLEASE ADVISE John Macartney, jdmac@erols.com

MAR 14, CNN Cold War TV episode on espionage, 8pm EST. http://cnn.com/SPECIALS/cold.war/experience/spies/

MAR 15, Ft Myer, VA, Officers Club. AFIO luncheon. At 11am, John Koehler will speak on his book: "STASI: The Untold Story of the East German Secret Police." Luncheon speaker will be Professor Paul Goble, a spell binding speaker and long time RFE/RLofficial, who will talk about "Whiter Russia." $26 (members and their guests) , or $29 (non-members) . AFIO, 6723 Whittier Avenue, #303A, McLean VA 22101-4533. 703-790-0320 / https://www.afio.com

MAR 21-25, Washington. National OPSEC Conference, Radisson Plaza at Mark Center in Alexandria, Virginia. http://www.opsec.org or call 301.548.1018

MAR 25, Alexandria, VA.  Professional Connections in the Intelligence Community (PCIC) Symposium (job fair), at Radisson Plaza Hotel at Mark Center, Alexandria, Virginia. http://www.pcic.net or call Lori Tugman at 703 767 6862

APR 14, Washington Naval Intelligence Professionals "Red Tie" luncheon at Bolling AFB O'Club with speaker, Paul Lowell, Deputy DNI.

APR 23-24, Williamstown, MA. Spring meeting of AFIO New England Chapter at the Williams Inn.  (860) 669-7706

MAY 21, Alexandria, VA. NMIA's Information Operations '99 and the NMIA Annual Awards Banquet, Radisson Plaza at Mark Center in Alexandria, Virginia. (301) 840-6642, http://www.nmia.org

MAY 23-26, Rosslyn, Virginia; OSS '99 Symposium and Expo at the Holiday Inn Westpark. Open Source information and expertise. for information call Robert Steele (703) 242-1700, http://www.oss.net/

MAY 25 - Washington / Rosslyn Westpark Holiday Inn - AFIO Mini-Symposium, " Business, Intelligence and the Law." Tel 703 790 0320. (afio@afio.com)

JUN 14 - Fort Myer, , Officers Club - AFIO quarterly luncheon and Board meeting. Speakers to be announced.

JUN 18, Washington. DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College sponsored conference on teaching intelligence in colleges and universities. Contact AFIO member LTC (colonel-select -- congratulations!) Kevin Johnson, (202) 231-4173 or k-m-johnson@worldnet.att.net

JUN 24 - 28, Great Lakes Naval Base, IL.  AFIO Midwest Chapter 10th annual Intelligence Seminar at Great Lakes June 24, 25 and 26, followed by at tour of the Joint Reserve Center at Fort Sheridan on the 27th, and sessions as well as dinners on 27 and 28 June at the Eagles Nest at the Great Lakes Base. Contact President Angelo Diliberti diaboliq@home.com.

JUL 16-17, Peru, VT . Summer meeting of AFIO New England Chapter at the Bromely Sun Lodge, (860) 669-7706.

SEP 10-12, Berlin, Germany. Conference, "Berlin: The Intelligence War," co-sponsored by the CIA Center for the the Study of Intelligence, the Allied Museum, and Teufelsberg.  Registration fee is $100. Deadline for registration is April 26. Attendance by invitation only. For information, contact: Carol Minor at fax (703) 613-3050, or richaes@ucia.gov

SEP 13 AFIO quarterly luncheon and Board meeting, Fort Myer, Virginia. Speakers to be announced. Contact (RADM ret) Don McDowell, AFIO VP Programs, with speaker suggestions - afio@afio.com.

OCT 29-30, Kennebunkport, ME. Fall meeting of AFIO New England Chapter, Nonantum Resort. (860) 669-7706.

OCT/NOV timeframe - AFIONational Symposium and Convention, planned to be held at the NRO facility, pending concurrence of DirNRO. More information forthcoming. Contact AFIO VP Programs Don McDowell (RADM ret) with suggestions afio@afio.com

DEC 3 - AFIO one-day mini-symposium - conducted in conjunction with a joint AFIO/NMIA/OPSEC " intelligence week."More information will be forthcoming shortly.


NOTE: AFIO MEMBERSHIP or Associate Membership is open to US citizens who subscribe to AFIO's principles and objectives - see AFIO's Homepage at https://www.afio.com

For back issues, updated periodically, see the AFIO Homepage https://www.afio.com

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