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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #12-99, 24 March 99

The Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries and notes relevant to US and other nation's intelligence activities, based solely on open source material. WINs originated, and are produced and edited for AFIO by Roy Jonkers, AFIO Executive Director.

Graduate Student Ken Holt (KenH) contributed to this WIN. Contributions are invited.

The WIN is now sent to 895 members, up another 25 from last week. Keep them coming! We need more new members!

NOTE: AFIO SYMPOSIUM on Business Intelligence and the Law -- 25 MAY - see Bulletin Board, Section IV below.


SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

KOSSOVO - The US and NATO attacked Yugoslavia with missiles and bombs on March 24th. The last time this was done was by the Luftwaffe in 1941.

A number of military professionals in the Pentagon were reported to have opposed the action, arguing that "it created more problems than it solves" and urged other solutions. This apparently was a time that the military actually urged restraint, but according to multiple sources, the President was determined to send in the bombers. The operation is under full control of the White House. This is Mr. Clinton's war, according to military sources.

Military objections, if the above report is true, can be assumed to have dealt primarily with target selection and tactics based on available intelligence. The Yugoslav order of battle, however, is not impressive - only 75,000 soldiers out of a total population of a mere 8 million Serbs - not enough power to keep the old Yugoslavia from falling apart and degenerating into an ethnic free-for-all.

Like the Iraqis, the Serbs have a sizable number of older tanks (1,200) and numerous obsolescent surface-to-air missiles (SA-2, SA-3 and SA-6) as well as Stingers. The best of their combat aircraft are MIG-21's. Their technology is obsolete. All together, an unsophisticated fourth-rate army and air force that couldn't fight its way out of a paper bag -- - another easy kill, unless they become inspired and keep going in a guerrilla fashion, in which unlikely case it may be a protracted disaster- for them.

As to political intelligence, the Yugoslav civil population and military were, and are, unprepared for war, and did not expect the US/NATO military aggression against their country. They are said to have supported their governments' agreement to a political settlement in Kossovo, but also support the refusal to agree to the US/NATO ultimatum of ceding Kossovo to NATO occupation -- the reason for the current air assault. As noted before, Kossovo has a mystical significance in their folklore akin to Jerusalem for Israelis. The probability of a major humanitarian disaster as a result of the airstrikes is therefore reasonably high. Throughout the Yugoslav and Bosnian crises, however, killing, raping or ethnic cleansing Serbs has not been a great concern of this Administration. Without an international power sponsor (Russia has degraded itself to being the begging bagman of Europe, and their army has also become fourth rate), the Serbs are out of luck.

The President has laid out his justification for killing Serbs, citing their atrocities as the reason, as Presidents and Kings have done since time immemorial. Black propaganda (planted false-flag emotional themes and articles) and white propaganda were used to good effect also in other wars of this century. Since the White House is framing the argument, and since we have the power, and will write the history, the Serbs are out of luck in the propaganda war as well as on the ground.

The US military and the Intelligence Community have done, and will do their duty, leaving the policies, strategies and moralities of this sad affair to politicians and citizens. From a cold Pax Americana, geopolitical or historical perspective, let us hope we do not expend too much of our moral capital. (Wpost 24 Mar p. A20; NYT 21 Mar 99 p. 1; rfavela@abtechnologies.com) (RoyJ)

MORE ON THE CHINESE ESPIONAGE CASE- The increased security at Los Alamos and the cry for tighter security vis-à-vis China will have consequences for the current U.S. policy regarding military-to military exchanges between the two nations. The sharing of information between the two sides to date has been cited as helping to foster mutual understanding between the services.

There are those, however, who are critical of the exchanges, claiming the U.S. is giving out far more information than they are taking in. Several examples have been cited, including a 1996 visit to the U.S. by Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian. Chi was allowed to test-fire several pieces of U.S. military equipment, including an Abrams M-1 tank. In light of recent developments, it may be safe to assume nothing along those lines will be happening again anytime soon, since instances of how the US benefits on a one-for-one basis have not been publicized.

On another note, the Chinese government offered strong denials concerning its involvement with alleged spy Wen Ho Lee. China claims Lee visited Beijing on only two occasions, each time to discuss only "basic scientific matters." U.S. claims of Chinese espionage were not only "erroneous", but also tantamount to acts of "McCarthyism." Moreover, China claimed all efforts to develop its nuclear program were exclusively the result of their own efforts. For whatever it is worth! (KenH)

CIA DRUG ESTIMATES DISPUTED- Colombian officials disputed CIA estimates that stated the nation's coca crops expanded by over 28% last year, making it by far the world's largest drug producer. The CIA analysis also stated that Colombia's efforts to spray coca plants have come up short.

Colombia's assertions were upheld by the chief of the UN Drug Control Program, who argued that the CIA's exclusive reliance on satellite observation does not take into account plants on the ground that may actually be dead.

The controversy has spread beyond the CIA and Colombian authorities. The State Department, which finances much of Colombia's coca spraying program, was quiet on the issue, stating they were in no position to dispute the CIA report.

One official from the afore-mentioned UN program said he believed the CIA's estimates were higher because they had expanded their collection efforts to count coca plants in areas that had not been previously been under surveillance. (Miami Herald 15 March, P. 1) (KenH)


SECTION TWO-CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

OSINT: LOW MAN ON THE TOTEM POLE- Robert Steele and Mark Lowenthal were featured in an article in the Washington Post on March 22nd as major proponents of OSINT. They assert that the Intelligence Community does not make the most of the available open sources when analyzing and producing intelligence for its consumers, and that more should be done. OSINT's full potential has not been realized and it remains undervalued -- even if CIA has mined a segment of open source information for years through the FBIS (Foreign Broadcast Information System). OSINT can make a valuable contribution by providing context and by filling in the blanks in Intelligence data holdings by using academic, civil or commercial information and data bases. As with all information, mechanisms must exist to screen out information from disinformation and misinformation.

The two proponents do not advocate replacing the intelligence collection disciplines with Open Source Intelligence. They know that the need for technical and human source intelligence collection remains. While OSINT is cheap, and easily available, it is virtually worthless when dealing with hard targets.

Steele and Lowenthal doubt that the Intelligence Community will increase its budget for expanding OSINT in an major way any time soon. As they say, OSINT is not nearly as exciting as either SIGINT, or the new hot "INT", MASINT. (Washington Post , 22 Mar 1999, P. A 17, Vernon Loeb) (KenH)

SUIT FILED AGAINST CIA, JUSTICE DEPARTMENT- One of the more elaborate conspiracy theories in recent years- allegations that the CIA played a role in the crack cocaine epidemic in California- took another turn last week. Two class-action lawsuits were filed accusing the CIA and Justice Department of not reporting the criminal acts of Contra operatives that trafficked crack cocaine on the side. These actions, the suits allege, contributed to the deaths of several "men, women, and children." The suits seek compensation for California residents from the Agency and DOJ.

The allegations first surfaced in an August 1996 article in the San Jose Mercury News. The article, which has since been discredited, suggested the CIA started the crack cocaine epidemic in American cities. The primary motivation for this supposedly was to help fund Contra rebels battling Communist Sandanistas in Nicaragua. The whole issue has become a crusade for CIA bashers. (Seattle Times 17 Mar 1999, Prof John Macartney's Course Packet 1237-Spring 1999 P. 11) (KenH)

NORWAY DROPS CASE AGAINST THE MOSSAD- Norway closed the books on its case concerning the 1973 murder of Moroccan Ahmed Bouchiki. Bouchiki was killed by Mossad agents who mistook him for PLO terrrorist Hassan Salameh. Salameh was thought to be the mastermind behind the slaying of eleven Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics

Five Mossad agents were arrested and imprisoned briefly before being released. The Israeli who led the operation, Mike Harari, was able to escape capture and fled the country. Norway had pressed Israel for several years to make Harari available for questioning, only to be rebuffed each time. Norway's decision ends the case. (KenH)

INTELLIGENCE GENERAL PROMOTES COO-ING. Lieutenant General Claudia Kennedy, Army Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, dubbed a "White House favorite" by Bill Gertz writing in the Washington Times, addressed the annual meeting of Army Sergeants Major at Fort Huachuca, the Army's intelligence training center. She lectured the combat veterans on the Army's new policy, "Consideration Of Others", acronym COO, and how to conduct coo'ing sessions. The three star general also addressed "touchy-feely" social issues. Veterans remember other periods of intense social experimentation in the armed forces. Only the grunts in the trenches will be out of luck when cooing won't work. (Wtimes 26Mar99 p. A10) (RoyJ)

CRIMINAL INTELLIGENCE - In the words of Robert Heibel, former FBI counterintelligence specialist and now head of a four-year program at Mercyhurst College leading to a baccalaureate (effectively a BA in Intelligence), "The end of the cold war era has unleashed not only pent-up nationalism, but a new wave of organized crime and anarchy with which law enforcement must deal. Vital for law enforcement, at all levels, is intelligence. But effective intelligence is inseparable from counterintelligence... today's sophisticated criminals naturally attempt to penetrate their opponents, whether they be government in general or specifically law enforcement. This effort must be countered and turned to law enforcement's advantage." Bob Heibel's statement is a call to arms for former intelligence professionals looking for a job to do in your own community. (Larry Sulc)


SECTION III - BOOKS

BRITISH MILITARY INTELLIGENCE IN THE PALESTINE CAMPAIGN, by Yigal Sheffy, London: Frank Cass and Co, 1998. ( ISBN - 0 7146 4208 78) The author, a career officer in the Directorate of Military Intelligence in the Israeli Defense Forces, and now a professor of intelligence in Tel Aviv University, has done a thorough job in integrating intelligence into operations in this study of an often overlooked conflict. Sheffy covers such topics as innovations in collection, the predominance of technical means of collection over human intelligence (already in WW I !!!), deficiencies in analysis, and the role of intelligence in deception operations, and finally, evaluates the successes and failures of British MI against the Ottomans. This is a scholarly work on the development and utilization of military intelligence during World War I, appropriate for serious students of intelligence. (Dr. Ken Campbell)

THROUGH THE EYES OF THE ENEMY, by Stanislav Lunev (with Ira Winkler), Regnery Publishing Inc, Washington DC, 1998. The author was a colonel in the GRU, the Soviet military intelligence apparat, who defected to the United States in August 1988. This slim book is his story, told in simple, straightforward words, starting with his childhood and ending with his new life in America. It is a nice book for the general public, providing the human touch - spies are people, after all. (RoyJ)


SECTION IV - BULLETIN BOARD

NEW AFIO VICE PRESIDENT -- Lieutenant General Ed Heintz, USAF (ret) has agreed to join the AFIO executive leadership team as a Senior Vice President. The active participation of this first rate intelligence officer and senior executive in our reinvigorated mission of building a public constituency for a strong and healthy US Intelligence capability will be most helpful. Welcome aboard! (RoyJ)

AFIO - BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE AND LAW SYMPOSIUM, 25 May 1999, Holiday Inn, Rosslyn, Virginia. Seating is limited to 100 individuals. First come, first served. (RoyJ)

Symposium Chairman is Thomas Spencer, Esq., member AFIO Board of Directors.

REGISTRATION:

Make out check to AFIO. Amount: $125 members of AFIO, ABA or SCIP (per arrangement with George Marling), $165 to others (includes one-year AFIO membership) and send to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, Va 22101-4533, with registration information including your name, address, occupation, organization, tel/fax number and email address.

AGENDA:

(1) Elizabeth Rindskopf, Esq, (invited) former Legal Counsel CIA and NSA - Contemporary issues affecting US business community.

(2) Edward O'Malley, former Deputy Director of the FBI for CI -- Criminal Enforcement Trends and Procedures relative to Business Secrets and Intellectual Property.

(3) Professor James Chandler -- Civil Enforcement Trends and Procedures re: Intellectual Property and Business Secrets.

(4) Rosemary Lark -- Business Intelligence: Corporate America Meets James Bond.

(5) Theodore Shackley (CIA ret) -- Business Terrorism - You are the Target

(6) Panel : Neil Livingstone, Gary Stubblefield, Bob Quigley -- Global Options -- Protecting Your Business Assets // Preemptive Strategies and Case Studies.

(7) Hon. Royce Lamberth, Presiding Judge, National Surveillance Court (invited)

(8) Reception and Mixer.

(9) Viewing of exhibits at the Open Source Symposium 99. OSS 99 is hosting the independent and stand-alone AFIO symposium. The OSS 99 Symposium (host) is a continuation of a successful annual international assembly of extraordinarily varied individuals interested in - or involved in - security, intelligence and open source access and manipulations. For information on OSS 99, contact Robert Steele at bear@oss.net

NEW ENGLAND CHAPTER - The Spring Chapter meeting will be held on 23/24 April at The Williams Inn, Williamstown, Massachussetts. Williamstown is set in the Berkshire Hills, beneath Mount Greylock, the highest peak in the state. Friday evening there will be a cocktail gathering. Saturday speakers will include Chris Constanzo, recently retired from CIA/DO, speaking on "Life After Intelligence." In the afternoon, after the buffet, Herb Romerstein, who retired in 1989 as head of the office to counter Soviet Active Measures at USIA, will speak on the topic of his forthcoming book on "The Venona Secrets." Luncheon costs are $20 per person prepaid, $25 at the door. Hotel accommodations are $70 single, $90 double. All AFIO members and guests are invited. The New England chapter meetings are always quality events. For registration (or chapter membership) call Peggy Adler tel 413 458 9371. (RoyJ)

NORTHEAST FLORIDA CHAPTER MEETING - The Chapter will meet at the Radisson Ponce de Leon Resort, on April 24 at 11:30 a.m. An excellent restaurant, good food, an interesting speaker -- a worthwhile event for all AFIO members in the Northern Florida and Southern Georgia areas. Cost is only $10.00. Contact Chapter President John Guenther at guenusmc@aug.com AND also begonia@coj.net. (RoyJ)

EMPLOYMENT

WRITERS WANTED! The next issue of AFIO's academic newsletter, the "INTELLIGENCER," will be put together in April and mailed out in May. WE ARE SOLICITING ARTICLES & BOOK REVIEWS

Almost any subject that pertains to the intelligence business past or present is welcome, although we favor those pertaining to: teaching intelligence in colleges and universities ongoing issues and developments in intelligence history pertaining to intelligence Brevity is important in our limited space format, and we prefer articles of 1000 to 3000 words. Let us hear from you! Submit by e-mail to jdmac@erols.com.(Johnmac)

INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY STAFF MONOGRAPH - One of our members, Jim Boginis, suggested that a history of the IC staff, including its long-suffering attempts to assert authority over - or coordinate programs of - the Intelligence Community, would be a useful topic for an AFIO Monograph. I am therefore looking for a knowledgeable academic or professional to undertake on the project and write on past efforts to manage the Community. We will provide assistance. If interested contact afio@afio.com (RoyJ)

COLD WAR INTELLIGENCE PROJECT - CNN Interactive is doing a Cold War project about intelligence operatives "who did not make it back," those who died doing the mission. The producer is looking for historical material, anecdotal stories. Contact Bruce Kennedy (404) 827 4382, or visit the CNN site at <CNN.com/coldwar> If nothing works, email us afio@afio.com . (PeterE)


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