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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #13-99, 2 April 99

WINs originated, and are produced and edited for AFIO, by Roy Jonkers, AFIO Executive Director afio@afio.com. RADM Don Harvey (DonH) and Graduate Student Ken Holt (KenH) contributed articles to this WIN. Contributions by members are invited.

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NOTE: Sign up now for the AFIO SYMPOSIUM on Business Intelligence and the Law -- 25 MAY - a superb list of speakers - limited number of seats -- see Bulletin Board, Section IV below for agenda and registration form.


SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

ISRAELI LASER TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO CHINA? - Apparently based on access to a classified DIA report and unnamed defense officials, a Washington paper recently reported that Israel is suspected by the Defense Department of sharing restricted US weapons technology with China.

Three US contractors and four Israeli firms are involved in a $131 million THEL (Tactical High Energy Laser) joint laser weapon program started in 1996, based on an US-Israeli agreement to rapidly build a weapon to knock out Kayusha rockets fired by the Hezbollah from southern Lebanon. DIA suspicions about technology leakage are allegedly based on US contractor reports, spotting Chinese technicians working secretly at Israeli plants involved in the laser program.

The Israeli's have also been trying, according to DIA, to obtain the US source codes for the laser's target selection computer software in order to increase the weapons' range so that they can be used to knock out targets other than those permitted by the US-Israeli joint agreement. Once the built-in limitations are circumvented, the technology would be a much more valuable commodity for sale to customers such as China.

The Israeli Defense Ministry has denied the accusations. (Wtimes 27Jan99, p.A1) (DonH)

CHINA PLANNING ANTI-SATELLITE LASERS - In a Congressionally-mandated report, DoD has warned of PLA PLANS to "develop a capability to establish control of space or to deny access and use of military and commercial space systems in times of crisis or war." The report detailed a range of high-technology, weapons-related systems Beijing is pursuing, such as laser radars, advanced radar systems and high-energy laser equipment to track satellites, and noted that the PLA may be developing jammers that could be used against the US Global Positioning System receivers.

The PLA may already have beam weapons capable of damaging sensors on space-based reconnaissance and intelligence systems and is working on the ability to destroy space-based communications systems.

The DoD report also took note of PLA interest in pre-emptive strikes and concepts for developing radio frequency weapons, accurate and stealthy ballistic and cruise missiles, and UAVs, including a rotary wing vehicle for use as a reconnaissance platform, as well as acquiring advanced aerospace technologies with help from Russian and other unidentified Western nations. (Def. Nws 2-8 Nov 98, p 6)

GERMANY ANNOUNCES HANDOVER OF STASI FILES - In a seemingly endless story, the German government stated that the US had agreed to hand over sensitive files on the STASI obtained by the CIA after the Cold War. Both sides reached an agreement when it was decided that only those files with director relevance to Germany's internal security would be returned. These rest of the files would remain in the possession of the CIA.

In exchange for their files, the CIA is to receive information from Germany's Gauck archives, detailing the fall of the East German regime. German authorities pointed out that there would be no further legal action against former Stasi spies as a result of the exchange of documents. (Reuters, 23 Mar 99) (KenH)

MELISSA - A new and fast-replicating computer virus - nicknamed MELISSA - swept across electronic mail networks all over the nation on 29 March, forcing emergency shutdowns such as that by Lockheed Martin of Bethesda, with cut its 100,000 person e-mail system off from the outside world. Computer viruses are one of the unforeseen byproduct of the information age, a kind of civic information war manifestation or information terrorism. Do not open a message that has the subject line "Important Message from XXXX" - in which XXXX could be your close friend. If you open the attachment, your word processing program is infected, and the same messages (with virus) will be sent to the first 50 names in your address book. The FBI took a dim view of the affair and has arrested a man in New Jersey as the culprit. (Wpost 30 Mar p. E-1, CBS 3 April 99) (RoyJ)

KOSSOVO/ YUGOSLAVIA - DCI George Tenet along with military leaders were cited in the Washington press as having warned the President that a NATO air attack on Serbia would result in a campaign of ethnic cleansing in the Serb province of Kossovo - and we are seeing precisely the outcome that had been forecast. But the President pressed on with his air campaign decision in the face of this advice.

Kossovo is covered extensively in the press, and the WIN is not an op-ed vehicle.

For those of you who have read enough on this topic, cease reading here. What follows is a cursory and incomplete, but critical - and perhaps cynically balanced - intelligence assessment based on open source reading. .The assessment focuses on three elements: (1) the observable facts on the ground, (2) the propaganda war in context, and (3) tactics and strategic aims of the combatants.

The reported facts are that hundreds of thousands of Muslims are fleeing Kossovo, while at the same time, the Serbian nation's infrastructure is being dismantled from the air -- - - power, communications, bridges, factories, logistics etc., with the expectation that the lightly armed Serbian troops and police in Kossovo will soon run out of gas and ammunition, setting the stage for a NATO ground assault. With absolute US / NATO technological mastery, complete control of the air space, and full-time pervasive intelligence and reconnaissance coverage, the outcome is foreordained - like a fight between the cavalry and an Indian tribe. It will be over in a flash.

A recon patrol - the precursor of such an invasion, was captured - and in a almost comic opera vignette, if true, may be tried for entering Serbia without a visa. Soon the elements will be in place for the occupation of Kossovo by NATO troops - and the apparent tactical and ideological goals envisioned by the Clinton strategy will be achieved.

The propaganda war is clearly being won by the President. His words are carefully tailored to suit his objectives and to whip up public support, with themes changing daily. He makes frequent use of powerful holocaust terminology ( for those who participated in the war against the Nazis, such as this editor, a cheapening, shallow and misleading use and effect).

The fleeing refugees - whether they seek refuge from the NATO air war, the fighting between Serbs and KLA, or Serb "ethnic cleansing" is immaterial -- as is the fact that US policy has provoked a good deal of the current disaster -- - none of it matters, as the TV pictures of weeping women and reports of atrocities attributed to the Serbs will carry the day. There are, incidentally, no photos of dead Serbs from the air assault on Serbia in US media - the media coverage is as one-sided, caricatured and shallow as usual.

As a minor footnote, US handwringing about "ethnic cleansing" is ironical when considered against the precedent of ethnic cleansing 300,000 Serbs from Croatia not long ago - without photos, no crocodile tears - and supported by the US. This was recently recognized as a war crime, but little will come of that. War crimes are in the eye of the beholder too, it seems, and we control the process. The Serbs are, and will be out of luck.

Serbian TV propaganda is pitiful. Where the President warps facts to his use (few individuals know much about the Balkans, so he commands the field) and draws on humanitarian sympathies of the disaster evoked in part by US policies, the Serb TV broadcasts are a mixture of "victimhood," reports of support from Greece and Russia, reports of demonstrations against US embassies in various countries, and some blatantly baldfaced untruths - dozens of allied aircraft shot down etc. A depressing performance.

The difference between US and Serb propaganda is that the Serbs are playing to themselves, the US is playing to the world, counting on media focus on human interest stories of refugees and accusations of atrocities to gain political support and to prepare the ground for killing more Serbs in air and ground attacks to come.

The President is winning the tactical propaganda battle hands down in the US, and predominantly in Europe, even if the headline in the Economist asks "Kossovars - Victims of Serbia or NATO?" But that is for the post mortem.

According to an Army estimate, the Serb goals are to retain Kossovo province, for reasons of history and to maintain sufficient territory to defend themselves against coalitions of their local rivals - a sense of danger and victimhood that is an ever-present Serbian obsession.

Kossovo was just another Serb province with local self rule (autonomy), until the Kossovo Albanian communist mafia's depredations against both Kossovar and Serb residents during the '70's and eighties' got out of hand and played a part in causing Milosevic to suspend local autonomy, using the Belgrade central administration to control the Kossovo criminal gangs after 1988. (the President makes much use of this event as if it came about without history).

A few years later Albania collapsed and massive amounts of weapons became available to one and all. Parenthetically, Albania itself was, and is still, a complete basket case, very unsafe - even Kossovar refugees get taken to the cleaners. An insurgency was started by Albanians coming across the border, soon supported by Albanian expatriates in western Europe, including local criminal mafias now operating drug and prostitution rings in Germany. The insurgents started killing Serb policemen and Serb residents.

Not unexpectedly, the police did not take kindly to cop killing, and, in their view, terrorism. The Serb countering tactics were brutal, as is the wont in this neck of the woods. But US policy soon supported the insurgents, and started always to refer to Kossovo in terms of its ethnic majority (90% Albanian) - imprinting the fact that it was this majority that mattered most. The result was a destabilized Kossovo.

To counter the probability of a Kossovo secession and creation of a greater Albania, which the Serbs perceived as a threat to them (based on their history and cultural paranoia) the Serbs recently decided on a policy of population transfer to remove the threat of US policy based on provincial ethnicity. In this they followed principles and precedents set in this century, including those ethnic cleansings approved and supported by the US - none of them were pretty - but also, none were on CNN - a fundamental Serb miscalculation. Since NATO operations began, this population transfer policy was implemented in a frantic form -- what began as a US public objective of preventing harm to the Albanians, actually acerbated the process. But on CNN, it serves a purpose.

Serbian strategy rests on three pillars: (1) the ability to absorb NATO airstrikes, which may do damage, but consolidate internal popular support and patriotism ( needed as Milosevic had been on shaky internal political ground), (2) the unwillingness of NATO to mount a ground attack, and (3) the willingness of Russia to support Serbia - politically and with supplies and intelligence. The Serbs believed that a Russian crisis with NATO is in the interest of both Primakov and Yeltsin. The Serbs are miscalculating on all points, although their options were indeed very restricted by US policy objectives.

The Administration strategy in the former Yugoslavia appears to have been, and remains, to reduce the strength of Serbia relative to the other states in the Balkans and thereby to establish stability in the region. To accomplish that, we have supported the creation of non-states like Bosnia and Macedonia, dependent on long-term protection and occupation and infused with fictions of ethnic love and democracy -- a job for NATO. And we supported Croatia, including the ethnic cleansing of 300,000 Serbs from that state, fulfilling their WWII Nazi dreams.

In parallel the President's policy seems to be driven by certain ideological criteria that are shared, to some extent, with the compatible socialist regimes now in place in the UK, Germany and France. This apparent ideological desire to punish Serbia (for Srbenica - but that is yet another story) was the reason why alternative means of resolving the real problem - keeping the Kossovars in Kossovo, did not receive priority. Alternative constructive policies could have used the Russians combined with other political and economic means (Kissinger et al.) . Instead there were the Rambouillet "peace proposals" -- - in reality an ultimatum that promised to cut the province of Kossovo out of Serbia under foreign occupation (Rambouillet may be compared to an Oslo "peace" accord for Israel that would include the occupation of a portion of Israel, including Jerusalem, as part of the package; the Israeli reaction would probably exceed that of the Serbs).

The President has been accused of having no strategy - but it is, and has been, reasonably clear, as noted above: to emasculate Serbia as a basis for area stability, and to punish Serbia for actions in the ethnic free-for-all which followed the dissolution of Yugoslavia. The president's propaganda may be ideologically one-sided and often warped, but so have been that of other leaders. US public opinion, which accepted the cleansing of 300,000 Serbs from Croatia, will not accept the removal of a similar number of Muslims from Serbia. NATO will cripple the Serbia state by air -- the latest announcement of bombs on Belgrade are again reminiscent of an earlier war - the "Rotterdam" precedent -- and kill round numbers of Serbian men, women and children, and attack on the ground as well, in Kossovo and perhaps in Serbia.

The Serb strategy will fail as its assumptions are flawed, its propaganda ineffective. The Serbs - along with the Kossovars - will pay the price. We also control the war crimes designation and judgment process. It is all the fault of Milosevic.

The president's strategy and tactics, questioned by eminent foreign policy and military experts, may be proven right or wrong - all policy is an exercise in risk assessment and management. Both the strategic and ideological bases of the President's policy are suspect, but he commands the field and only the future will tell. The cost to the US will be calculated later, in terms of damage to US-Russian relations (Henry Kissinger's concern), the marginalization of the UN and the Security Council, the marginalization of the Senate (no war declaration or approval), the change in the nature of NATO from a defensive organization to an offensive one, the precedent of an unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation, the fallout from the damage done to Serbia as well as Kossovo in European public opinion, the argument about the cost of using of airpower alone to defeat a nation, and eventually, a balanced assessment of what went on, etc. etc. This may be significant, or, it may all well be swept under the rug. This is the era of Pax Americana.

Whatever happens, the best possible national intelligence assessments will be provided to the President -- - who has the prerogative to disregard them for his policy decisions. There is no doubt, however, that battlefield intelligence will be superb and well utilized. (Economist April 3rd, Wpost Mar 25 - Apr 1, MICA-Gram 99-12 dtd 31Mar 99 courtesy Tom Fergusson, Cspan2, NYT, NY Rev of Bks ) (RoyJ)


SECTION TWO-CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

NATIONAL SECURITY HARMED BY LEAKS - Testimony of DCI George Tenet and DIA Director LGen Patrick Hughes before the Senate Armed Services committee recently addressed the problems caused by classified information leaks to the media. "I think the government is hemorrhaging in a way I've never seen in my lifetime, and the implications for the nation's security are profound," the DCI told senators.

The DirDIA told the committee that classified information is routinely leaked to the press, and in some cases those leaks come in advance of planned operations. LGen Hughes said the country has to strike the right balance between protecting classified intelligence and keeping the public informed, but "....we now seem to have erred on the side of making so much available that some of it has been damaging."

The source of the problem is not the press and the those journalists who write about classified informed, the DCI testified. Instead he put the blame at the feet of federal employees who feed the material to the press. "The problem is people believe they derive some power from leaking classified information," said Mr. Tenet, adding that roughly 80 percent of the leaks stem from the executive branch. "People have lost their sense of discipline, and at the end of the day, we will lose our ability to serve you because of that lack of discipline," he told the senators.

It will be recalled that articles previously highlighted in this space were based on leaks - in one instance leaked before the Top Secret NIE reached the White House. (Inside the Pentagon 4Feb99, p. 19) (DonH)

CHINESE ESPIONAGE FALLOUT - CONTINUED - The CIA allegedly received information from a Chinese defector in 1995 concerning Beijing's knowledge of US weapons programs. The Chinese were said to have information of seven different US nuclear warheads, dating as far back as the neutron bomb of the early 1970's, and also about US efforts to devise a nuclear weapon to create an electromagnetic pulse. The CIA concluded that this information could not have been obtained by either foreign visitors to the labs, nor from leaks through US allies, but must have been derived from an "insider," an American citizen with direct access.

The defector's report allegedly was not translated for a year or more - probably being just one more HUMINT report in a mountain of such reports containing all kinds of assertions of varying credibility. More information is collected than the system can process expeditiously to find the few gems in the mountain of chaff. Now that the Chinese espionage has become a political hot potato again, increased priority will most likely be given to processing these types of China reports. (Nwswk 29 Mar 99 p.30) (KenH/RoyJ)


SECTION III - BOOKS

ALLEN DULLES: MASTER OF SPIES - by James Srodes, to be published by Regnery Publishing, Washington DC. At present still in the stage of an uncorrected proof, this book is expected to be published later this year. Allen Dulles was at the forefront in building a US espionage service even before World War II. The book promises not only to cover Dulles' contributions in World War II, but his role as an active intelligence agent against Hitler before the war; and also includes tidbits on Dulles family's relationship with Alger Hiss, and even the Bay of Pigs. We shall await publication to read the final product and review. (RoyJ)


SECTION IV - BULLETIN BOARD

NEW AFIO VICE PRESIDENT -- CORRECTION - in the previous WIN I mis-spelled the name of AFIO's new Senior Vice President, Lieutenant General Edward Heinz, USAF (ret), former Director of the IC Staff, and also a former VP with General Electric and Lockheed Martin. We are honored to have him join us in pursuit of our mission. (RoyJ)


AFIO Symposium - BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE AND LAW,
Tuesday, 25 May 1999, 0730 (registration) - 17:00 (reception),
Holiday Inn, Rosslyn, Virginia.
Seating is limited to 100 individuals. First come, first served.

 

SYMPOSIUM CHAIRMAN is Thomas Spencer, Esq., member of the AFIO Board of Directors, e-mail trsmiami@aol.com.

PURPOSE AND INTENDED AUDIENCE:

The intended audience of the conference includes, besides members of AFIO, SCIP and the ABA, professionals in business, security, intelligence & counterintelligence, law and academia, as well as interested citizens.

The purpose is to provide relevant, practical and useable information, presented by eminent and credible experts in the fields of intelligence, lawmaking and enforcement, business intelligence and security threats, including terrorism.

CONTACT INFORMATION: Contact the Symposium Chairman for questions on the agenda. All other queries contact afio@afio.com


AGENDA:

Registration 07:00 - 08:00

(1) Speaker to be determined, FBI National Security Division - -Economic Espionage Overview

(2) Britt Snider, Esq, (invited) Legal Counsel CIA - - Contemporary intelligence and counterintelligence legal issues affecting US business community.

(3) Edward O'Malley, former Deputy Director of the FBI for CI -- Criminal Enforcement Trends and Procedures relative to Business Secrets and Intellectual Property.

(4) Professor James Chandler - - Civil Enforcement Trends and Procedures
re: Intellectual Property and Business Secrets.

(5) Rosemary Lark -- Business Intelligence: Corporate America Meets James Bond.

(6) Theodore Shackley (CIA ret) -- Business Terrorism - You are the Target

(7) Panel : Neil Livingstone, Gary Stubblefield, Bob Quigley - - Global Options -- Protecting Your Business Assets // Preemptive Strategies and Case Studies.

(8) Hon. Royce Lamberth, Presiding Judge, National Surveillance Court (invited)

(9) Reception and Mixer.


REGISTRATION FORM:

Please complete form and send form and check to:

AFIO
6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A
McLean, Va 22101-4533.

NAME

TITLE

ORGANIZATION

POSTAL ADDRESS

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TELEPHONE/FAX

FEES: $125 for AFIO members, and members of SCIP or ABA

$165 for all others -- NOTE that this fee includes a one-year subscription to the AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes and an AFIO membership for US citizens who are interested and eligible.

Mail check and Registration Form to AFIO at address above.


SUNCOAST CHAPTER MEETING - On April 13th the Chapter will hold its meeting starting at 11:30 a.m. at the MacDill Air force Base Officers Club, featuring as guest speaker FBI Supervisory Special Agent James Livingston, who is the FBI OC/Drug Coordinator for Central Florida. As part of the Chapters ongoing outreach program, a number of students will be invited. The cost is $8.50 for lunch - please make your reservation by 9 April. All AFIO members and guests are invited. Call Nat Alderman (813) 526 8969 for more information on the luncheon and membership in this dynamic chapter, and mail your check for $8.50 made out to "Suncoast Chapter, AFIO" to PO Box 55221, St Petersburg, FL 33732-5221.

CORRECTED PHONE NUMBER for NEW ENGLAND CHAPTER MEETING - The Spring Chapter meeting will be held on 23/24 April at The Williams Inn, Williamstown, Massachussetts. Williamstown is set in the Berkshire Hills, beneath Mount Greylock, the highest peak in the state. Friday evening there will be a cocktail gathering.

Saturday speakers will include Chris Constanzo, recently retired from CIA/DO, speaking on "Life After Intelligence." In the afternoon, after the buffet, Herb Romerstein, who retired in 1989 as head of the office to counter Soviet Active Measures at USIA, will speak on the topic of his forthcoming book on "The Venona Secrets." And as a special attraction, Rupert Allason (Nigel West) will also be attending on the 24th. He also has a forthcoming book on Venona - the discussion should be most interesting!

Luncheon costs are $20 per person prepaid, $25 at the door. Hotel accommodations at the Williams Inn are $70 single, $90 double, a special rate for AFIO - you must mention AFIO/NE to get this rate. All AFIO members and guests are invited. The New England chapter meetings are always quality events. For registration (or chapter membership) contact AFIO-NE@juno.com, or call Peggy Adler tel 860 669 7706. (RoyJ)

NORTHEAST FLORIDA CHAPTER MEETING - The Chapter will meet at the Radisson Ponce de Leon Resort, on April 24 at 11:30 a.m. An excellent restaurant, good food, an interesting speaker -- a worthwhile event for all AFIO members in the Northern Florida and Southern Georgia areas. Cost is only $10.00. Contact Chapter President John Guenther at guenusmc@aug.com AND also begonia@coj.net. (RoyJ)

BARBABA BUSH AT CIA - Mrs Barbara Bush will be speaking in the Bubble at CIA headquarters on 26 April at 2:30 p.m. Only thirty tickets are available. Anyone who would like to attend should contact Midge Homes at 703 356 5525 (or email <chrsnmidge@aol.com>) no later than 6 April. Midge will need your social security number. If you are among the lucky 30, you should arrive 20 minutes early and pick up your ticket at the Visitor's Center. (G. Campbell afio@afio.com)

CONFERENCE on TEACHING INTELLIGENCE AT COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES - sponsored by the JOINT MILITARY INTELLIGENCE COLLEGE (JMIC). Friday 18 June 1999, DIA Auditorium, Bolling Air Force Base, Washington DC. Contact Colonel Kevin Johnson for more information <afjmic@dia.osis.gov>. Conference fee is $20.

EMPLOYMENT

WRITERS WANTED! The next issue of AFIO's academic newsletter, the "INTELLIGENCER," will be put together in April and mailed out in May. WE ARE SOLICITING ARTICLES & BOOK REVIEWS

Almost any subject that pertains to the intelligence business past or present is welcome, although we favor those pertaining to: teaching intelligence in colleges and universities ongoing issues and developments in intelligence history pertaining to intelligence Brevity is important in our limited space format, and we prefer articles of 1000 to 3000 words. Let us hear from you! Submit by e-mail to jdmac@erols.com .(Johnmac)


AFIO MEMBERSHIP or Associate Membership is open to US citizens who subscribe to AFIO's principles and objectives - see AFIO's Homepage at https://www.afio.com

The WIN is now sent to 912 members, up another 17 from last week.

We need the support of each and everyone of you - EVERY MEMBER RECRUIT A MEMBER!

The Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries and notes relevant to US and world intelligence activities, based solely on open source material.

NOTE - WINs are protected by copyright laws and re-transmission is not permitted without specific AFIO concurrence (afio@afio.com), with the following exceptions::

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