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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #14-99, Apr 8, 1999

John Macartney (jdmac@erols.com) researched this WIN. Graduate Student Ken Holt (KenH) contributed to the research.

Contributions by members are invited.

WINs originated and are produced and edited for AFIO by Roy Jonkers, AFIO Executive Director afio@afio.com


NOTE: Sign up now for the AFIO SYMPOSIUM " Business Intelligence and the Law" -- 25 MAY - a superb list of speakers - limited number of seats -- Members, please spread the word! See Bulletin Board Section IV below for agenda and registration form.


SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

KOSOVO - So far, not much about intelligence has come out of the ongoing Kosovo story, or, in my view, the "Kosovo debacle."

(1) Warning -- Both the Washington Post and the NY Times have said that DCI Tenet (and or the CIA, depending on publication) had warned the White House repeatedly that initiation of a NATO bombing campaign was likely to increase the speed and ferocity of Serbian ethnic cleansing in Kosovo. Meanwhile, the JCS, according to the Post, did not think military force should be used in part because Kosovo is not a vital US interest. Also, they argued that bombing alone would not cause the Serbian government to reverse course. I expect there will be Congressional Hearings on all this...

(2) Reconnaissance. It wasn't until the 4th or 5th day of the bombing campaign that Predator UAV's were sent over Kosovo to try and monitor the extent of ethnic cleansing operations. Why was Predator left out of the planning for this operation? Good question. In a related story, Amnesty International has called upon states "with substantial reconnaissance & intelligence capabilities to monitor the human rights and humanitarian situation in the area, to make public the information available where appropriate, and share fuller details with the relevant international organizations. It may be important that states inside and outside of NATO do this..." http://www.amnesty.org.uk/news/press/releases/29_march_1999-0.shtml

(3) Russian AGI, and Spies. Russia, which opposes the bombing and considers Serbia an ally, has dispatched an AGI intelligence collection trawler to the Mediterranean to "monitor NATO actions against Yugoslavia." Furthermore, according to an article in the March 23 Washington Times, Russia is recruiting spies, collecting technology, "sabotaging" international peacekeeping in the Balkans and using world organizations as cover. All this according to a report by the CIA's Counterintelligence Center which was leaked to Times reporter Bill Gertz. The CIA wrote the report to alert US policy-makers to the problem of letting Russia participate in the Kosovo Verification Mission set up late last year by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The spying has been facilitated by "a conscious international effort to include Russians, the report said. <http://www.drudgereport.com/gertz.htm>

(4) First Imagery Released. On April 5th, the Pentagon released some imagery of "ethnic cleansing" operation underway in Kosovo. These were probably satellite photos that had been intentionally fuzzed to conceal capabilities. While they showed Serbian tanks herding civilians out of town and homes burning, they were not clear enough to determine if executions were taking place.

(5) WIN EDITORIAL ADDENDUM -- - Personal Editorial Comment -- - Numerous observers are saying that the NATO mission cannot succeed without ground troops and a NATO invasion of Kosovo, or even of Serbia itself. I agree, but I'm afraid ground troops are NOT an option. Why? Lack of political will and lack of time. British, French and American public opinion and legislatures would probably go along, but NATO operates on consensus -- ALL 19 NATO countries (including Italy and Greece which are already pressing for an end to the bombing) would have to agree. That's unlikely to happen. But even if a unanimous decision for ground troops could get through the NATO bureaucracy and the 19 legislatures involved, it would still take 6 to 8 weeks, maybe longer, just to deploy and assemble the forces and all their equipment. In short, NATO could not exercise its "ground force" option before June or July -- long after most Kosovars will have been expelled from Kosovo. Bottom line, NATO can't succeed without ground troops, and ground troops are not possible. Now it's a refugee crisis. --JdMacartney

(NOTE: WINs do not reflect AFIO positions -- those are restricted to intelligence-related matters and are promulgated by the AFIO Board of Directors. Editorial positions by the WIN editor or senior associate editors -- - not necessarily reflecting the same opinions -- - are based, in each case, on 4 to 5 decades worth of experience and perspectives on intelligence, special operations and college teaching.)

REPORTS OF CHINESE ESPIONAGE CLOUD VISIT. On the eve of Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji's visit to Washington, the LA Times is reporting that China's military intelligence chief, Gen Ji Shengde, dispatched $300,000 for Clinton's 1996 Presidential campaign (there is some doubt that the President or his senior people knew the source of the funds). http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/POLITICS/NATPOL/lat_china990404.htm

Also, according to a March 23 report by the American Foreign Policy Council, the CIA and FBI officials say Beijing has created a vast espionage network in the United States that has penetrated not only nuclear weapons labs, but also many companies and corporations whose technology is coveted for both military and commercial needs. A March 29 Newsweek article on Chinese espionage says that evidence now surfacing "had been languishing unread in intelligence-agency computers for years. Some hadn't even been translated from Chinese. Why did it take the intelligence community so long to realize they had a debacle on their hands? According to one official, though US spy agencies use a dazzling array of technical wizardry to collect vast stacks of raw intelligence data, they don't have enough analysts to make sense of it all. And sources say the American nuclear-weapons program is so closely guarded that intelligence analysts aren't allowed to know the details. Without a grasp of the technology and its arcane lingo, the analysts didn't know what warning signs to look for as they pored over intelligence. reports. (Newsweek, March 29, 1999)
http://newsweek.com/nw-srv/printed/int/us/na0813_1.htm
http://www.afpc.org
http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/asia/032499china-nuke.html (JdMac)

PFIAB. President Clinton announced March 24 his intent to appoint Cresencio Arcos and Stephen Friedman to serve as Members of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. Arcos was a career Foreign Service Officer who began with the United States Information Agency before moving into the State Department years ago. Friedman was for many years a General Partner of Goldman, Sachs & Co, and retired as its Chairman in 1994.


SECTION II CONTEXT AND PRECEDENT

NEW DoD SECURITY PLEDGE REQUIREMENT. A new DOD Directive that went into effect Feb 15 requires all personnel with Top "Secret and/or SCI clearances to "make a verbal attestation that he or she will conform to the conditions and responsibilities imposed by law or regulation on those granted clearance or access. This pledge is designed to restore "a sense of obligation and honor," to those granted top-level security access. The new policy is the result of a year-long security. "Since the end of the Cold War," Asst Secretary Hamre stated, "the security system has became somewhat lax due to the lack of a clear opponent. We let a lot of the basic discipline for security atrophy." http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Mar1999/n03221999_9903223.html . (JdMac).

AMERICAN-ISRAELI COMMERCIAL SATELLITE. According to Defense News on-line of March 29, a US-Israeli joint-venture company is building a high-resolution imaging satellite for launch late this year. The joint venture, which is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, eventually plans to launch a constellation of eight small satellites based on Israel's Ofeq spy satellite design. The company has named the constellation Eros. The ground resolution of each satellite in the constellation will be around 1.5 meters, which means objects that size and larger can be identified.(Jdmac).


SECTION III - BOOKS & OTHER SOURCES.

The Spring 1999 edition of the "International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence" is just out. There is a book review by past AFIO President, John Waller, of BRITISH SECURITY COORDINATION: THE SECRET HISTORY OF BRITISH INTELLIGENCE IN THE AMERICAS, 1940-45 (St Ermin's Press 1998), a now declassified British govt publication with an introduction by Nigel West. This, of course, is about William Stephenson (aka, "Intrepid") the M.I.6 officer who ran British intelligence liaison and covert action missions in the US during WWII. The review itself is a great read.

Another must read is Abe Miller's review of Gary Webb, DARK ALLIANCE: CIA, THE CONTRAS AND THE CRACK COCAINE EXPLOSION, Seven Stories Press, 1998. Abe Miller is a Professor at the University of Cincinnati and a former chairman of ISA's Intelligence Study Section. (He is also enrolled in AFIO's AEP program for teaching profs.) Miller wrote two earlier reviews of Gary Webb's "Dark Alliance" series which ran in the San Jose Mercury News in 1996. Well, Abe is still refuting Webb's CIA crack conspiracy thesis, but he does praise Webb for having amassed a mountain of evidence and tells us that we all really ought to read the book.

An article by Cynthia Nolan, a doctoral candidate at American U (where I teach), explores the public opinion impact of the 1974-75 NY Times series on intelligence misdeeds by Seymour Hersh. While the series helped set off investigations by the Rockefeller Commission as well as the Church and Pike Committees, and led to the Hughes-Ryan Amendment and the creation of the two congressional oversight committees, she says, it only helped. That is, Nolan argues that in the aftermath of Vietnam and Watergate, the CIA probably would have come under intense scrutiny and oversight with or without Hersh. She also notes that then as now, the general public cares little about the CIA or intelligence scandals -- watching over intelligence, she writes, is an inside-the-beltway thing. (JdMac)

HERSH ARTICLE IN THE NEW YORKER. Speaking of Seymour Hersh, he didn't go away in 1974. His 1986 book, THE TARGET IS DESTROYED, about the shootdown of KAL007 remains, in my view, one of the best books every written about intelligence. His 1991 book, THE SAMPSON OPTION, about Israel's nuclear weapons program, also had quite a bit about intelligence in it. More recently, he has been publishing intelligence related articles in the New Yorker. Last fall there was one about the Somalia pharmaceutical factory that was hit by US cruise missiles and another about the UNSCOM intelligence matter in Iraq.

The April 5 New Yorker has still another Hersh article on intelligence. In it, he says, among other things, that the Iraqi government paid at least $800,000 to Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, who later hindered U.N. efforts to monitor Baghdad's illegal weapons programs. Also, according to Hersh, the US attempted to assassinate Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein during allied airstrikes last December. And more.... http://www.abcnews.go.com/wire/World/AP19990329_483.html

ABC's OF SPYING. Robert Gates, former DCI, had a good op-ed piece on Chinese espionage, intelligence and US foreign policy in the March 14 NY Times. <http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/oped/14gate.html> (JdMac)

INFORMATION WARFARE. The CNN website has some stories on what a "cyberwar" might look like, discussing results of an NSA-run hacker simulation in 1997. See also LA Times web page on this. http://cnn.com/TECH/specials/hackers/
http://www.latimes.com:80/excite/990330/t000028307.html(JdMac)


SECTION IV -- BULLETIN BOARD

AFIO CORPORATE MEMBERSHIP -- AFIO invites corporations and professional offices to become corporate members. For more information contact the AFIO Vice President for Corporate Membership Programs, James ("Jim") Boginis, jim.boginis@lmco.com


"HEADS UP" SCHEDULE. Lists events of interest to AFIO members and intelligence scholars. NOTE: If you know of an event coming up in the next 12 months that should be added to this list, PLEASE ADVISE John Macartney, jdmac@erols.com and AFIO afio@afio.com

April 13, MacDill AFB, Florida. AFIO Suncoast Chapter meeting, 11:30am at the Officers Club, with guest speaker James Livingston, who is the FBI OC/Drug Coordinator for Central Florida. As part of the Chapters ongoing outreach program, a number of students will be invited. The cost is $8.50 for lunch - please make your reservation by 9 April. All AFIO members and guests are invited. Call Nat Alderman (813) 526 8969

April 14, Washington. Naval Intelligence Professionals "Red Tie" luncheon at Bolling AFB O'Club with speaker, Paul Lowell, Deputy DNI.

April 23-24, Williamstown, MA. Spring meeting of AFIO New England Chapter at the Williams Inn. AFIO-NE@juno.com, or call Peggy Adler (860) 669-7706.

May 21, Alexandria, VA. NMIA's Information Operations '99 and the NMIA Annual Awards Banquet, Radisson Plaza at Mark Center in Alexandria, Virginia.&. (301) 840-6642, http://www.nmia.org

May 23-26, Rosslyn, Virginia. OSS Œ99 at the Holiday Inn Westpark. (703) 242-1700, http://www.oss.net/

May 25 -- AFIO Mini-Symposium, "Intelligence and the Law." In conjunction w/OSS, Washington / Rosslyn Westpark Holiday Inn. Tel 703 790 0320. (See agenda and registration form, below.)

June 14 -- AFIO Luncheon, Fort Myers, Va. LGEN Macaffrey, White House "drug czar" (invited) and Dr. Carr, Director of local High Intensity Drug Area Intelligence Center. AFIO members and guests, $26. Others $29. Make out check to "AFIO" and send with note including name, address, tel/email info, to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, McLean, Va 22101-4533.

June 18, Washington. DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College sponsored conference on teaching intelligence in colleges and universities. Contact AFIO member LTC (colonel-select -- congratulations!) Kevin Johnson, (202) 231-4173 or k-m-johnson@worldnet.att.net

June 24 - 28, Great Lakes Naval Base, IL. AFIO Midwest Chapter 10th annual Intelligence Seminar at Great Lakes June 24, 25 and 26, followed by at tour of the Joint Reserve Center at Fort Sheridan on the 27th, and sessions as well as dinners on 27 and 28 June at the Eagles Nest at the Great Lakes Base. Contact President Angelo Diliberti diaboliq@home.com.

July 16-17, Peru, VT. Summer meeting of AFIO New England Chapter at the Bromely Sun Lodge, (860) 669-7706.

September 10-12, Berlin, Germany. Conference, "Berlin: The Intelligence War," co-sponsored by the CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence, the Allied Museum, and Teufelsberg. Registration fee is $100. Deadline for registration is April 26. Attendance by invitation only. For information, contact: Carol Minor at fax (703) 613-3050, or richaes@ucia.gov

September 13, AFIO Luncheon, Ft Myer, Virginia. Speakers to be announced.

October 7-9, AFIO National Convention and Symposium. Symposium will be conducted 8 October in the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) Auditorium, Chantilly, Virginia. Further announcements will be forthcoming.

October 29-30, Kennebunkport, ME. Fall meeting of AFIO New England Chapter, Nonantum Resort. (860) 669-7706.


REGISTRATION AND AGENDA

AFIO Symposium "BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE AND LAW"
Tuesday, 25 May 1999, 0800 - 0900 (registration); 09:00 - 17:00 - - reception 1700 - 1830
Holiday Inn, Rosslyn, Virginia.

Chairman: Thomas Spencer, Esq, member, AFIO Board of Directors.

Seating is limited to 100 individuals. First come, first served.


AGENDA: Registration 0800 - 0845.

Introduction by Symposium Chairman Tom Spencer at 0845. Speakers 0900 following:

(1) Britt Snider, Esq, Legal Counsel CIA -- keynote speaker -- - Contemporary intelligence and counterintelligence legal issues affecting US business community.

(2) FBI National Security Division -- Economic Espionage Overview

(3) Edward O'Malley, former Deputy Director of the FBI for CI -- Criminal Enforcement Trends and Procedures relative to Business Secrets and Intellectual Property.

(4) Professor James Chandler -- Civil Enforcement Trends and Procedures re: Intellectual Property and Business Secrets.

(5) Rosemary Lark -- Business Intelligence: Corporate America Meets James Bond.

(6) Theodore Shackley (CIA ret) -- Business Terrorism - You are the Target (7) Joseph Rosenbaum, Esq., Legal Techniques and Strategies to Protect Corporate Property

(8) Panel : Neil Livingstone, Gary Stubblefield, Bob Quigley - - Global Options -- Protecting Your Business Assets // Preemptive Strategies and Case Studies.

(9) Reception and Mixer (5:30 p.m. until 6:30 p.m).


REGISTRATION FORM:

Please complete form and send form and check to: AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, Va 22101-4533.

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The Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries and notes relevant to US and world intelligence activities, based solely on open source material.- -- WINs are protected by copyright laws and re-transmission is not permitted without specific AFIO concurrence (afio@afio.com), with the following EXCEPTIONS:

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