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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #15-99, 16 Apr 99

WINs are produced and edited for AFIO by Roy Jonkers, AFIO Executive Director afio@afio.com.

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This WIN includes articles by Contributing Associate Editors John Macartney (JdMac) and RADM Don Harvey (DonH), and by graduate student Ken Holt (KenH).

AFIO SYMPOSIUM -- - Business Intelligence and the Law

25 MAY '99, Rosslyn Virginia (DC area) -- a superb list of speakers -- limited number of seats -- See below Section IV Bulletin Board (end) for agenda and registration form.


SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY APPOINTMENT -- Secretary of Defense William Cohen announced today that the President has nominated Navy Rear Admiral Thomas R. Wilson for appointment to the grade of Vice Admiral and assignment as Director, DIA. Admiral Wilson is currently serving as the Joint Staff J-2, Pentagon. He has recently been frequently seen on C-Span contributing JCS factual military information of the war against Yugoslavia.

YUGOSLAVIA / KOSOVO - The problem for the public in slogging through the layers of propaganda and word manipulation remains daunting. Yugoslav Government propaganda remains fairly pitiful, as reflected on C-Span. US propaganda sank to a new low when the Kossovar civilian casualties from air attack were initially conjectured by the Pentagon civilian spokesman to be caused by strafing by a Yugoslav fighter. This was later disavowed. The White House spokesmen continues to refer to the Yugoslavs as the"evil Serbs," continuing the ideological typecasting, and everyone, Milosevic included, is seeking to validate themselves by reaching for the holocaust mantle. In this old observer's perspective, both sides are wrong in this reach.

The conflict is also being conducted on the internet, with bogus sites and email viruses being sent both ways. As in all other ways, however, the Yugoslavs are far outgunned by the firepower the US can bring to bear here also. The US Information Agency (USIA) resources have been marshaled to augment the military Information Warfare and Propaganda staffs and organizations.

A special supplement will be provided early next week to examine the status of the US war on Yugoslavia and provide a cold-eyed intelligence assessment -- based on available open source information. (RoyJ)

KURDS WARN TOURISTS - Kurdish rebels warned foreign tourists against visiting Turkey in the aftermath of the capture of Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) on 15 February in Kenya. US intelligence sources are said to have played a role in his arrest.

The PKK has been fighting a 14-year campaign to win an independent Kurdish homeland in southeastern Turkey. More than 30,000 people have died in the conflict, which has featured nasty terrorist incidents and brutal Turkish countermeasures -- shades of Kosovo -- including invasions into Iraq. Unfortunately for the Kurds, they have no powerful sponsor, and Turkey is an ally of the US; consequently they receive no US support (in fact, the opposite) and no White House or media melodrama or tears -- as was, and is, available for the Kosovars. Such is life! (Wpost 16Mar99, p. A14) (RoyJ)

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY -- Notra Trulock, until recently the Chief of Intelligence for the Department of Energy (DOE), testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee on April 12th. It was carried live on C-Span. The subject, of course, was Chinese espionage at the DOE nuclear weapons labs, and included a damning indictment of squelched investigations and cover-ups by senior DOE officials for reasons of policy -- they did not want the weapons labs to be damaged by adverse publicity and did not want to impact negatively on high strategy goals in US-China relations.

A recent DOE report to the President stated that while no nuclear material is in imminent danger of being stolen, there was still cause for concern regarding security at Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore. Moreover, the DOE's transportation division, entrusted with moving materials among DOE sites, was downgraded from "satisfactory" to "marginal" in the security assessment. In response to the report, Secretary of energy Richardson has asked for more funding to improve security.

DOE announced on 6 April that all scientific work on the computers containing America's most sensitive weapons secrets at its three nuclear laboratories, because of fears that security lapses make the computers vulnerable to espionage. Thousands of scientists and other researchers at the labs who rely on classified computer networks have been forced to drop their work and instead attend training sessions on cyber security.

The computer networks are used to model the reliability of weapons designs - necessary since the US has stopped the actual testing of weapons. One security flaw noted was that , although the classified computers network is not linked to the outside world, secret information could be copied onto a computer disk and then sent out via unclassified email from separate unclassified systems. Computer operations will not be resumed until security is improved. It may be noted that this flaw may well exist in many other classified computer networks.

Relative to accusations of Chinese espionage, new allegations accuse China of trying to obtain information about the US neutron bomb program in 1995 and 1996. The President was briefed on this by National Security Advisor Sandy Berger in 1997.

A Congressional report by the Cox Committee is expected to be published shortly. The report is said to include 37 recommendations for tightening security both at weapons labs and on dual-use technology transfers to China. (NYT 8Ap 99 p. A1; FinancialT 8 Ap 99 p.6; <http://search.nytimes.com/search/dailybin/fastweb?getdoc+iib-site+3+0+wAAA+espionage ; USA Today 31Mar99, p31A; SF Chron., Ap 7,' 99, p.1 -- courtesy Thomas Hart) (RoyJ/ JdMac/ KenH)

JAPANESE SPACE RECONNAISSANCE - Later this year Japan will send individuals to the US to begin specialized training as space imagery interpreters and analysts. The program will be conducted under the auspices of the Department of Defense. Approximately 40 new specialists of the Japanese Defense Agency will prepare for the inauguration of its first national satellite reconnaissance program in 2002.

The Japanese surveillance system will consist of four satellites. The satellites will be developed by the National Space Development Agency of Japan, with satellite parts and the intelligence analysis system to be acquired from the US.

The impetus for the adoption and funding of this program came from the North Korean missile tests. The Japanese have taken a harder line against North Korea recently, firing cannons and dropping warning bombs at North Korean "spy boats," representing the first hostile firing action taken by Japan since WW II. (Global Intel Monthly, Feb 99, p. 17, Wtimes) (KenH/RoyJ)

CHINESE MILITARY MOVES IN SOUTH CHINA SEA. Pentagon intelligence officials are given as the source of a recent report that satellite imagery shows the PLA is building a fuel-storage facility next to the airstrip on Woody Island, part of the Paracels, about 400 miles south of Hong Kong and 250 miles east of Danang. The Paracels chain of islands is administered by China but claimed by Vietnam (fighting broke out with Vietnam in 1978 and 1983). The added fuel capacity will extend the reach of Chinese Su-27 fighter-bombers hundreds of miles from the Chinese mainland. The runway is 7,300 feet long -- enough to accommodate bombers as well as fighters.

The new military construction on the Paracels follows recent reports of China's expansion of military facilities on another disputed South Sea island chain, the Spratly islands, farther south near the Philippines. Philippine military aircraft bombed a Chinese installation in the Spratly's in 1995.

On the Chinese mainland, foreign sources indicate that the PLA has deployed more than 100 additional short-range ballistic missiles in the provinces facing Taiwan. This recent development more than triples the number of missiles previously believed to be in that area. Although none of these developments have resulted in increased military activities on the part of any of the local protagonists as yet, that may occur. In the past, the US Navy has dispatched a carrier task force to the region when that happened. At present all carriers are deployed in the US/NATO war against Yugoslavia. (Wtimes 11 Feb99 p A1; Wpost 11 Feb p. A1) (DonH & RoyJ)

MONITORING CUBAN NUCLEAR LEAKS BEGINS. The Caribbean Radiation Early Warning System (CREWS), authorized and funded ($2 million) by DOD in 1996, has begun initial operations with the first site on-line in St. Petersburg, Florida. The mission of CREWS is to monitor possible radiation leaks from the unfinished Russian-technology nuclear power plant at Juragua, Cienfuegos province, Cuba. Over $1 Billion had been spent in 12 years on the facility when it came to a halt with the collapse of the Soviet empire in 1992. Fidel Castro announced last September that work on the plant has been suspended indefinitely.

CREWS will have five or six sites when complete, with installations at Key West, Miami, Texas, and either Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama. Each site is a high-volume air sampler, basically a giant vacuum running 500 cubic meters of air an hour, which allows detection of very minute traces of radiation. Since it is estimated that completion of the nuclear plant will cost around $750 million, and the Castro dictatorship is in dire financial straits, it would appear the monitoring sites will be underemployed for an extended period of time. (Wtimes 1 Feb 99, p A3) (DonH)


SECTION II CONTEXT AND PRECEDENT

COLD WAR CERTIFICATE APPROVED - Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen has approved a Cold War Recognition Certificate for all members of the armed forces and federal government civilian employees who faithfully served the United States during the Cold War era, between September 2, 1945 and December 26th, 1991. Congress established the Cold War certificate in Section 1084 of the fiscal 1998 National Defense Authorization Act. The Army has been designated the Executive Agent for the program. Ref. http://coldwar.army.mil/ for correct procedures to request the certificate. Documentation can be mailed (Cold War Recognition, 4035 Ridge Top Road, Suite 400, Fairfax, Va 22030), faxed (703 275 6749) or emailed coldwar@fairfax-emh1.army.mil . (courtesy Fred Battles, Veterans Digest) (RoyJ)

US ARMY INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY COMMAND (INSCOM) EUROPE has completed its move from Augsburg, Germany, to Griesheim, a suburb of Darmstadt. Some $18 million was spent on renovation for the Griesheim complex, which contains buildings dating from the 1930's. Some 50 functional intelligence areas had to be phased in at Griesheim while being simultaneously phased out at Augsburg, without loss of effectiveness. The move was complex, but successful. (Intelligence, N.95, 22 Mar99, p.18, ed. Olivier Schmidt) (RoyJ)

CIA PLOT TO TOPPLE MILOSEVIC? Media reports speculate that in the early '90s CIA agents, who had penetrated the Yugoslav government at its highest levels, presented a plan to overthrow Prime Minister Milosevic. The CIA allegedly infiltrated the Serb hierarchy in Belgrade, bugging key buildings and obtaining valuable information on Serb plans and intentions. Additionally, agents identified an individual to lead a coup against the government. A top-level CIA officer was dispatched to Belgrade to establish contact with the turncoat and other disillusioned members of Milosevic's inner circle. The potential coup leader was then flown to CIA headquarters, where he outlined a coup strategy. Since he claimed to have the support of key Yugoslav generals, the plan was thought to be feasible. The press pundits speculated that the plan was canceled because then-DCI John Deutch was purportedly not a fan of covert operations, and because Milosevic was then an integral part of ongoing Bosnian peace negotiations. (NwsWk 12 Ap99, p/ 36) (KenH, RoyJ)

FATAH REVOLUTIONARY COUNCIL AND MOSSAD - In January, Western media reported that former Palestinian terrorist Abu Nidal had moved to Iraq, but on Tuesday, March 16th, the London-based Arab newspaper "All Hayat" quoted Nidal's British biographer, Patrick Seale, as saying that Abu Nidal was under arrest in Egypt, in good health, and cooperating with authorities -- singing like a bird. Other members of the Fatah-Revolutionary Council group have recently been permitted to enter Palestinian territory, with Israeli approval.

Surprise? no. The group, which had murdered several prominent PLO representatives and peace negotiators, was considered by many specialists to be manipulated by the Israeli MOSSAD. In the byzantine world of Middle East terrorism and counter-terrorism, it is also interesting to note that the attempt to assassinate Israel's ambassador in London in 1982 was also done by Nidal's group. This assassination attempt was used by Israel as a justification for its the invasion of Lebanon -- that had the objective of expelling Palestinian forces controlled by Yasser Arafat -- who had nothing to do with Abu Nidal.

If this report may have shed light on the convoluted historic intrigues of the Mossad, that agency is now said to be undergoing changes. Israel, an increasingly democratic society, whose existence is now not nearly as precarious as it once believed it was, is re-examining the role of the Mossad. Independent commissions have found fault with agency planning. Additionally, Mossad is said to be having a harder time recruiting new spies, and there is evidence of bitter infighting near the top ranks of the organization. Critics also say the agency is too dependent on HUMINT and covert operations, to the exclusion of technologies that play a crucial role in collection. Israeli's are also scrutinizing the idea of state-sponsored assassinations that have been a cornerstone of Israeli policy against its Arab opponents. It may be ventured that whatever the press speculation appears or political contention exists, the role of the agency may undergo changes, but its importance to the state will continue. (Intelligence N.95, 22 Mar 99, p. 24) (KenH; RoyJ)

GUATEMALA - The Guatemalan Historical Clarification Commission (CEH) completed its work in February and published a report entitled "Guatemala Memory of Silence." It accuses the US-backed Guatemalan military of a host of human rights violations and systematic state terrorism against the Mayan Indian population. US operations in Guatemala were part of the Cold War. For those who wish to revisit this piece of history, check http://hrdata.aaas.org/ceh/ to read the report. (Intelligence N 95, 22 Mar 99, p. 21 (RoyJ)


SECTION III - BOOKS & OTHER SOURCES.

BLACK HAWK DOWN: A STORY OF MODERN WAR, by Mark Bowden, Atlantic Monthly Press, 1999. This new book covers the 3 Oct 1993 firefight in Mogadishu, Somalia, in which a 100 man force of elite US rangers and Delta Force commandos took some 70 casualties, including 18 killed. It's a gripping story -- hard to put it down. Mostly it is about a furious all night firefight, but it does have some interesting intelligence insights. In addition to satellite imagery, SIGINT, and a robust HUMINT effort, they had a US Navy P-3 (EP-3?) surveillance aircraft with all types of day, night and all weather sensors circling the city 24 hours a day. Once the operation got underway, there were three special ops helicopters with color TV cameras that kept the scene under continuous surveillance so that commanders could monitor the action in real time. I recommend this one! (JdMac)

CHINESE INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS, by Nicholas Eftimiades, 1998, paperback version $15.00. For all those interested in the stories of Chinese espionage in this country, this is the book to read. You can get it from Newcomb Publishers Inc, 4812 N. Fairfax Drive Arlington Virginia 22205-1510, with a special AFIO discount, courtesy of AFIO member Fred Smith - if you call him at 703 524 5310.

BIOHAZARD, by Ken Alibek with Stephen Handleman, Random House, 1999.

Alibek, then named Kanatjan Alibekov, was a high ranking scientist/manager in the Soviet/Russian biological weapon (BW) program and defected in 1992. Among other things, his book charges that Gorbachev authorized a broad expansion of the Soviet BW program in the late 80's and some Soviet SS-18 ICBM's carried anthrax and other germs. It also claims that Soviet intelligence found evidence that two epidemics of hemorrhagic fever that swept an area of China in the 1980s were caused by accidents at a Chinese BW plant. Both Chinese and Russian BW programs continue, the book charges, although both countries are signatories to a 1972 treaty banning biological weapons. http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/asia/040599china-germ-weapons.html (JdMac)

ELIZABETH, one of this year's "Best Picture" Oscar nominees and one of the year's better films, is not a spy story, but it certainly features the importance of an effective intelligence system as represented by the Earl of Walsingham, who provided crucial support to the young queen. The movie, of course, is not true to history in its details -- - such as the night Walsingham spends with French queen Mary of Guise, who was plotting to overthrow Elizabeth, ending with Mary's demise -- - but in a very general sense it conveys historical truth, for Walsingham did provide crucial intelligence and counterintelligence services to the Queen. An entertaining movie, with a demonstration of the importance of the value intelligence operations in history. (Global Intel Monthly, Feb 99p. 18) (RoyJ)


SECTION IV BULLETIN BOARD

AFIO CORPORATE MEMBERSHIP -- AFIO now invites corporations and professional offices to become corporate members. For more information and corporate membership registration, contact the AFIO Vice President for Corporate Membership Programs, James ("Jim") Boginis, jim.boginis@lmco.com or AFIO at afio@afio.com . (RoyJ)

AFIO CONFERENCES:

Apr 23-24, Williamstown, MA. Spring meeting of AFIO New England Chapter at the Williams Inn. AFIO-NE@juno.com, or call Peggy Adler (860) 669-7706.

May 25 -- AFIO SYMPOSIUM , "Business Intelligence and the Law," Rosslyn Westpark Holiday Inn, Alexandria Va. (See agenda and registration form below, or visit AFIO's Website at www.afio.com)

The AFIO event is held in conjunction with, and hosted by, OSS Œ99 which is conducted from May 23 - 26. (703) 242-1700, http://www.oss.net/

Jun 14 -- AFIO LUNCHEON, Fort, Va. Speakers to be determined - check with AFIO. Make out check to "AFIO" and send with note including name, address, tel/email info, to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, McLean, Va 22101-4533.

Jun 24 - 28, Great Lakes Naval Base, IL. AFIO MIDWEST Chapter 10th annual Intelligence Seminar at Great Lakes June 24, 25 and 26, followed by at tour of the Joint Reserve Center at Fort Sheridan on the 27th, and sessions as well as dinners on 27 and 28 June at the Eagles Nest at the Great Lakes Base. Contact President Angelo Diliberti diaboliq@home.com .

OTHER ANNOUNCEMENTS:

DIA's JOINT MILITARY INTELLIGENCE COLLEGE will sponsor a conference on June 18 on teaching intelligence in colleges and universities. Contact AFIO member Colonel Kevin Johnson, (202) 231-4173 /or check k-m-johnson@worldnet.att.net

SMITHSONIAN Campus on the Mall will conduct a series of sessions entitled "Intelligence: Trump Card in Diplomacy and War," on Thursday evenings at 8 pm, from April 22nd through May 27th. To register, call (202) 357 3030, fax (202 786 2034, or request tickets online www.si.edu/tsa/rap .

OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS Expo, OSS Œ99 is conducted from May 23 - 26. This is an always interesting and diverse conference, featuring everything from international hackers to open source gurus. To register, call (703) 242-1700, http://www.oss.net/

AFCEA'S PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT CENTER will offer its semi-annual course on "The US Intelligence Community" on May 18-20. The course is classified SECRET-US Only, and will be held at AFCEA's Fairfax, Virginia headquarters. Call 703 631 6135 for registration. Peter Oleson, AFIO member, teaches the course.

SPY YOUR OF WASHINGTON - Gary Powers' Cold War Museum activity will sponsor a "spy tour of Washington DC" on Sunday, May 23, 1999, from 9 am to 3:30 pm. The cost is $35 pp. Reservations must be confirmed and paid for by 21 May 99. This bus tour will visit the many locations that have been associated with intelligence and counterintelligence activities for the past two hundred years. Some walking is required. Contact gpowersjr@Coldwar.org or call 703 273 2381.

IN MEMORIAM

Arthur Raymond, aircraft designer, died on March 22nd, aged 99. He was not an intelligence professional -- but the aircraft he designed, the DC-3 (or C-47) remains a fixture in the minds of the WWII / Korean War generation. The DC-3 was born in 1935. It was the first aircraft to accommodate enough passengers to be profitable - - it signaled the start of mass air travel. By 1939 the DC-3 accounted for over 90% of the world airline trade. It served in WWII, and remained in general service until the 1960's. More than 18,000 were built, and some are still flying.

It was a tough aircraft - a quality much appreciated during the war. A Japanese zero fighter rammed a C-47 and fell to earth, while the crew flew home and the pilot was credited with a kill. The finest hour came in July 1948 when the Soviets cut off the land route between Berlin and Western Europe, and DC-3's flew in supplies to the beleaguered city until the blockade was lifted in September 1949.

Mr. Raymond lived a full life and had many other accomplishments. He was a founder of RAND, a think-tank that has affected US policy on security matters. But his monument was the DC-3. We salute one of the unsung giants of our age.(courtesy Bob Finneran, Economist 10 April 99, p. 86) (RoyJ)


AFIO SYMPOSIUM AGENDA AND REGISTRATION

AFIO Symposium "BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE AND LAW"

Tuesday, 25 May 1999, 0700 (registration starts) - 18:30 (reception closes), Holiday Inn, Rosslyn, Virginia.

Seating is limited to 100 individuals. First come, first served.

See our Website www.afio.com to download registration form or copy the entries below. This is a first clas symposium - highly recommended.

AGENDA: Speakers:

(1) Britt Snider, Esq, keynote speaker, Legal Counsel CIA -- Contemporary intelligence and counterintelligence legal issues affecting US business community.

(2) FBI National Security Division -- Economic Espionage Overview

(3) Edward O'Malley, former Deputy Director of the FBI for CI -- Criminal Enforcement Trends and Procedures relative to Business Secrets and Intellectual Property.

(4) Professor James Chandler -- Civil Enforcement Trends and Procedures re: Intellectual Property and Business Secrets.

(5) Rosemary Lark -- Business Intelligence: Corporate America Meets James Bond.

(6) Theodore Shackley (CIA ret) -- Business Terrorism - You are the Target

(7) Panel : Neil Livingstone, Gary Stubblefield, Bob Quigley -- Global Options -- Protecting Your Business Assets // Preemptive Strategies and Case Studies.

(8) Reception and Mixer.


REGISTRATION FORM:

Please complete form and send form and check to: AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, Va 22101-4533.

NAME

TITLE

ORGANIZATION

POSTAL ADDRESS

EMAIL ADDRESS

TELEPHONE/FAX

FEES: $125 for AFIO members, and members of SCIP, NMIA or ABA.

$165 for all others -- NOTE that this fee includes a one-year subscription to the AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (email) and an AFIO membership for US citizens who are interested and eligible.

Mail check and Registration Form to AFIO at address above.


WIN #14 ADDEDDUM:

Macartney's Assessment of Kossovo -- -NOTE: this is a non-intelligence PERSONAL editorial assessment by JohnMac; each of our readers will have their own. WINs do not reflect AFIO positons - - those are restricted to intelligence-related matters and are articulated by the AFIO Board of Directors. Editorial (JohnMc & RoyJ) positions are based on 4 to 5 decades of experience and perspectives on intelligence, special operations and college instruction.

Mascartney: Numerous observers are saying that the NATO mission cannot succeed without ground troops and a NATO invasion of Kosovo, or even of Serbia itself. I agree, but I'm afraid ground troops are NOT an option. Why? Lack of political will and lack of time. British, French and American public opinion and legislatures would probably go along, but NATO operates on consensus -- ALL 19 NATO countries (including Italy and Greece which are already pressing for an end to the bombing) would have to agree. That's unlikely to happen. But even if a unanimous decision for ground troops could get through the NATO bureaucracy and the 19 legislatures involved, it would still take 6 to 8 weeks, maybe longer, just to deploy and assemble the forces and all their equipment. In short, NATO could not exercise its "ground force" option before June or July -- long after most Kosovars will have been expelled from Kosovo. Bottom line, NATO can't succeed without ground troops, and ground troops are not possible. Face it, NATO lost this "war. Now it's a refugee crisis. --Macartney


AFIO MEMBERSHIP or Associate Membership is open to US citizens who subscribe to AFIO's principles and objectives - see AFIO's Homepage at https://www.afio.com

The Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries and notes relevant to US and world intelligence activities, based solely on open source material.- -- WINs are protected by copyright laws and re-transmission is not permitted without specific AFIO concurrence of the editor (afio@afio.com, with the following EXCEPTIONS:

* One-time retransmission of a WIN for purposes of recruiting a new member;

* Retransmission of a single article

* Retransmission within the corporate entity that is a Corporate Member of AFIO. Check with the AFIO VP Corporate Membership, Jim Boginis jim.boginis@lmco.com for corporate membership information.

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