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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #17-99, 29 Apr 99

WINs are produced and edited for AFIO by Roy Jonkers, Executive Director.


ATTENTION: -- - AFIO SYMPOSIUM - -Business Intelligence and the Law

25 MAY '99, Rosslyn Virginia (DC area) See WIN 17-99 ADDENDUM for registration form and agenda.

AFIO members - please distribute this information to individuals or organizations that may benefit from attending.

ATTTENTION: AFIO Luncheon at Fort Myer, Va., 14 June 99.

We are honored to present the Hon. LAWRENCE EAGLEBURGER, former US Secretary of State and former Ambassador to Yugoslavia, speaking on the Balkans. This promises to be a fascinating session you don't want to miss!

ATTENTION: SECTION IV - BULLETIN BOARD -- IS NOW INCLUDED IN THE ADDENDUM SENT OUT SEPARATELY.

NOTE: The Addendum includes an employment opportunity in for former intelligence personnel to assist in Europe.


SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

PAKISTAN -- On Thursday 15 April Pakistan tested its newest ballistic missile. It fired off the Ghauri II near Jhelum in Punjab province, to Jiwani, some 715 miles downrange. The Ghauri II has a maximum range of 1,250 miles. It can carry a payload of 2,200 pounds of either conventional of nuclear explosives, and can reach all of India.

The test came in response to an Indian test on the previous Sunday of a similar ballistic missile, the Agni II, which can carry a warhead to any target in Pakistan. The Agni II can also reach most of China, and is considered a threat by that country. The Indian ballistic missile threat therefore may well increase pressure on Chinese weapons production.

Both India and Pakistan proclaimed that there was no arms race in South Asia. Wpost Apr15,99 p. A23) (RoyJ)

RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS -- On April 29th the Russian Security Council approved new positions concerning nuclear weapons policy covering tactical nuclear weapons and the nuclear weapons complex. The new positions contain adoption of a BLUEPRINT for refurbishing thousands of short-range and tactical nuclear weapons that had been taken out of service in 1991, on the basis of the Bush-Gorbachev back-to-back unilateral announcements. This includes short-range missiles, bombs, artillery shells and submarine-based tactical weapons, numbering a total of about 8,000 weapons.

Russian weapons designers are also said to clamoring for an opportunity to do nuclear tests. The spokesman for the Security Council, Vladimir Putin, said that a way had to be found for Russia to evaluate its nuclear stockpile without violating international test ban agreements.

Unnamed sources were cited as saying the Security Council decisions reflected anxiety about NATO airstrikes against Yugoslavia, and the related concern about Russia's weakness in conventional and non-nuclear weapons. Russian conventional forces are in a shambles, and recent security doctrines have therefore emphasized the nuclear deterrent. The Security Council announcements may be seen more as a diplomatic negotiation warning shot across NATO's bow rather than a action item, as the Russian Government lacks the resources to accomplish a large-scale tactical weapons program.

Russian actions must also be seen in the context of Russian Government instability. Mr. Yeltsin recently rose from his sickbed to bully his prime Minister, Yevgeny Primakov, who promptly developed a backache and retired to bed. He was then snubbed by Yeltsin's appointment of Victor Chernomyrdin as his special envoy for Yugoslavia policy -- which Mr. Primakov had been running. Yeltsin is also currently propping up Yuri Luzhkov, the mayor of Moscow, and even floundering ex-general Alexander Lebed, as potential rivals to keep Primakov in check. The leadership turmoil continues. (Hoffman, WPost Apr30,99, p. A1, Economst Apr 24,'99, p. 51) (RoyJ)

US NUCLEAR SECURITY -- The saga of nuclear weapons information security and possible theft at the Laboratories grows, and the plot thickens. It was revealed that Wen Ho Lee, a Taiwan-born physicist, during the years 1983 - 1995, may have transferred secret nuclear weapons data from a classified computer network to an unclassified system vulnerable to outsiders -- a similar accusation to that leveled against former CIA director John Deutch (ref WIN #16-99), but with arguably more damaging implications.

The programs on his personal computer included some of the so-called legacy codes, which incorporate a body of historic knowledge developed over the past 50 years of more than 1,000 nuclear tests. These codes allow the simulation of warhead detonations - - essential in view of the ban on actual weapons testing. Los Alamos uses the world's most powerful computer, capable of 1.6 trillion calculations per second, enabling scientists to develop a new generation of codes that can produce three-dimensional simulations of warheads as they explode.

Unauthorized access to these so-called legacy codes would be a foreign intelligence coup -- if they had the computing power to make use of them. Current investigations are seeking to determine if anyone had accessed the codes on Lee's computer, with preliminary official indications that no compromise had been found as yet.

Besides the FBI investigations, there are now nine separate congresssional investigations into the Los Alamos case. The release of the 1,000 page classified Cox Committee report is controlled by the Administration, which has the "sole authority" to determine what is classifed and what is not. It is expected to be released May 15th, but much of the gist of the report is already in the public domain. Much of the Congressional ire derives from politically motivated lax security procedures involving policymakers during the current Administration.

Former Senator Rudman, now a member of the Presidents Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, is also expected to issue a report in the near future.(WPost/Times 29, 30 April) (RoyJ)

CIVIL INFORMATION WAR - After causing hundreds of thousands of computer meltdowns around the world, especially in southeast Asia, the author of the Chernobyl virus was identified. Cheng Ing-Hau, a former computing engineering student now serving his two-year compulsory military service in Taiwan, was identified by his fellow students as the culprit. The Taiwan Office of Criminal Investigation is on the case. (Wpst Ap30,99) (RoyJ)

COLOMBIA LOOKS TO US FOR INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT - A growing threat from leftist guerrillas has prompted Colombian officials to seek improved military support from the US. The rebels have a reliable source of support and are elusive in their operations. They are well-funded by drug cartels that pay them for protection. Their jungle bases have made them hard to detect, and therefore hard to attack. Colombia is therefore seeking to buy Cobra helicopters to do reconnaissance as well as to attack drug laboratories and provide air cover for troops in jungle areas. Additionally Colombia is seeking to buy intelligence-collection equipment to intercept communications between guerrillas and drug traffickers and to pinpoint guerrilla unit locations. US aid will be sought, as the Colmbian economy is weak and the budget tight - there is little or no money to make these purchases. (DefNws 12Ap99, p. 14) (KenH)

AIRPOWER TO COMBAT WMD TERRORISM - A recent RAND study proposed that airpower be used in the fight against terrorists using "Weapons of Mass Destruction," (WMD) . With space based reconnaissance intelligence sensors, unmanned airborne reconnaissance platforms, and signals intelligence intercepts, terrorist locations could be pinpointed in urban areas, where WMD terrorist events are most likely to occur. Airpower could then be applied to take out specific targets.

Leaving aside the implications of this proposal for international relations, in terms of intelligence a substantial case can be made for HUMINT as the key discriminator of terrorist cell intentions, although all intelligence disciplines make their contribution to terrorist discovery and pursuit. (AVWk&Space Tech 19 Ap99, p. 25) (KenH/RoyJ)


SECTION II CONTEXT AND PRECEDENT

BUSH CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE INAUGURATED - CIA Headquarters was renamed the 'George Bush Center for Intelligence' in a ceremony at Langley on Monday April 26th. Former President Bush was present and spoke with emotion at a gathering of about 1,000 CIA employees and guests (including AFIO members and the AFIO President, Peter Earnest) in a tent outside the main building. Mr. Bush was CIA director for one year, from January 1976 to January 1977, but he he is fondly remembered for standing up for the agency when it was sharply criticized during congressional hearings and accused of abuses. Mr Bush said that his being a CIA director 22 years ago had a major impact on him and remained with him. "I kept the trust and treated the office with respect." He received a standing ovation. (Gertz/ WTimes Apr22, 99, p. A4) (RoyJ)


WIN 17 -99 ADDENDUM 30 Apr 99

This ADDENDUM contains EMPLOYMENT sought and offered, Corporate membership help request, a listing of AFIO conferences, and the Symposium agenda and registration for the 25 May AFIO Symposium on Business Intelligence and the Law.

The ADDENDUM is produced by WIN Editor Roy Jonkers.

The WIN is diseminated to 945 AFIO members, an increase of ONLY TWO (2) over last week. Support our mission and every member recruit a member! The one who brings is #950 gets a free book!


EMPLOYMENT SOUGHT - Former senior Army Special Operations Officer, excellent analyst and writer (editor's opinion), several years experience developing C3I requirements and systems architectures, is seeking permanent position. Contact AFIO, ref File J-122.

EMPLYMENT OFFERED - > IMMEDIATE REQUIREMENT. Betac Corporation is seeking persons with military intelligence experience for immediate utilization with elements of the U.S. Army Europe (USAREUR) in Germany and the United Kingdom for a minimum period of 60-90 days. Ideal candidates should have recent experience with tactical or theater level intelligence units or staff in the U.S. armed forces, particularly in the U.S. Army or U.S. Marine Corps, in one or more of the following functional areas:

all source analysis;
ground order of battle (OB);
intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB);
intelligence and electronic warfare (IEW) staff planning;
detailed terrain analysis;
collection management;
imagery analysis;
signals intelligence (SIGINT) analysis;
information operations (IO); and
counterintelligence/force protection analysis.

Current information indicates that most of USAREUR's requirements are expected to be concentrated in the functional areas of all source analysis, IEW planning, and possibly, collection management.

Previous experience at the Joint Analysis Center (JAC) at Molesworth, U.K; J2, U.S. European Command (USEUCOM); Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence (DCSINT), USAREUR; 66th Military Intelligence Group; or with any USAREUR unit is desirable, but not mandatory. Recent Army or Marine Corps experience with a tactical intelligence unit or staff at corps / division level and below is also desirable. Will require Top Secret (TS)/SCI security clearance. Ifinterested, please contact either Tom Fergusson at (703) 824-3246 / fergusson@betac.com, or Gregg Jones at (703) 575-3322 / jonesg@betac.com.

AFIO MEMBERS HELP SOUGHT WITH CORPORATE MEMBERSHIPS- - AFIO members are invited to let us know if they are "decisionmakers" in corporate or professional offices that might be interested in becoming corporate members of AFIO, or if they personally know someone who is at the level where such a decision might be made in a corporation or professional or enterpreneural organization. WE NEED YOUR HELP!

To improve our funding profile and to accomplish our mission agenda, we need significant annual funding support in addition to membership dues. We seek to enroll Industry & Business corporations and Professional offices that interested in supporting our AFIO MISSION - to build a public constituency for a sound and healthy US intelligence capability

The cost is $1,000 per year, and we offer, in addition to their support for a worthy cause, a number of specific benefits.

AFIO invites corporations and professional offices to become corporate members. For more information and corporate membership invitation and registration form, contact the AFIO Vice President for Corporate Membership Programs, James ("Jim") Boginis, jim.boginis@lmco.com, or AFIO at afio@afio.com. (RoyJ)

RESEARCH ASSISTANCE NEEDED - Dan Fruchey is doing research on counterespionage activities within the continental United States during WWII, and would like to ask questions of former OSS or FBI members who might have participated in such activities during that time. Please contact dfruchey@sonoma-county.org.


AFIO CONFERENCES:

May 25 -- AFIO SYMPOSIUM , "Business Intelligence and the Law," Rosslyn Westpark Holiday Inn, Alexandria Va. (See WIN 17-99 ADDENDUM, or visit AFIO's Website at www.afio.com.)

The AFIO event is held in conjunction with, and hosted by, OSS '99 which is conducted from May 23 - 26. (703) 242-1700, diaboliq@home.com

June 14 -- AFIO Luncheon, Ft Myer, Virginia.

Guest Speaker: The Honorable LAWRENCE EAGLEBURGER, former Secretary of State, s[ealomg pm the topic of US policy in the BALKANS.

Cost: AFIO members and guests, $26. Others $29. Make out check to "AFIO" and send with note including name, address, tel/email info, to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, McLean, Va 22101-4533. We expect a full house.

June 24 - 28, Great Lakes Naval Base, IL. AFIO MIDWEST Chapter 10th annual Intelligence Seminar at Great Lakes June 24, 25 and 26, followed by at tour of the Joint Reserve Center at Fort Sheridan on the 27th, and sessions as well as dinners on 27 and 28 June at the Eagles Nest at the Great Lakes Base. Contact President Angelo Diliberti diaboliq@home.com.

OCTOBER 21-23 - AFIO NATIONAL CONVENTION AND SYMPOSIUM, Chantilly, Virginia. The National Symposium will be conducted on 22 October in the Conference Section of the National Reconnaissance office (NRO). The Convention, including a General Membership Meeting and an Awards Banquet, will be held in a nearby hotel on 21 October. Board, Chapter, and other meetings will be conducted on Saturday 23 October. Please mark your calendars -- more information will be fothtcoming shortly.


AFIO 25 MAY 99 SYMPOSIUM AGENDA AND REGISTRATION

AFIO Symposium "BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE AND LAW"

Tuesday, 25 May 1999, 0700 (registration starts) - 18:30 (reception closes), Holiday Inn, Rosslyn, Virginia.

Seating is limited to 100 individuals. First come, first served.

Copy registration form entries below or see our Website www.afio.com to download registration form or.

This is a first clas symposium - highly recommended.

AGENDA:

Chairman: Thomas Spencer, Esq. trsmiami@aol.com

Speakers --

(1) Hon. Britt Snider, Esq, keynote speaker, CIA Inspector General, -- Contemporary Intelligence and Counterintelligence legal issues affecting US business community.

(2) FBI National Security Division - - Economic Espionage Overview

(3) Edward O'Malley, former Deputy Director of the FBI for CI - - Criminal Enforcement Trends and Procedures relative to Business Secrets and Intellectual Property.

(4) Professor James Chandler - - Civil Enforcement Trends and Procedures re: Intellectual Property and Business Secrets.

(5) Rosemary Lark -- Business Intelligence: Corporate America Meets James Bond.

(6) Theodore Shackley (CIA ret) -- Business Terrorism - You are the Target

(7) Panel : Neil Livingstone, Gary Stubblefield, Bob Quigley - - Global Options -- Protecting Your Business Assets // Preemptive Strategies and Case Studies.

(8) Reception and Mixer.


REGISTRATION FORM:

Please complete form and send both the registration form and your check to: AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, Va 22101-4533.

NAME

TITLE

ORGANIZATION

POSTAL ADDRESS

EMAIL ADDRESS

TELEPHONE/FAX

FEES: $125 for AFIO members, and members of SCIP, NMIA or ABA.

$165 for all others -- NOTE that this fee includes a one-year subscription to the AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (email) and an AFIO membership for US citizens who are interested and eligible.

Mail check and Registration Form to AFIO at address above.


WINs are protected by copyright laws and re-transmission is not permitted without specific AFIO concurrence (afio@afio.com), with the following EXCEPTIONS:

* One-time retransmission for purposes of recruiting a new member;

* Retransmission of a single article

* Retransmission within the corporate entity that is a Corporate Member of AFIO. Check with the AFIO VP Corporate Membership, Jim Boginisjim.boginis@lmco.com for corporate membership information.

* For use by an instructor for an educational course.

For back issues, updated periodically, see the AFIO Homepage https://www.afio.com

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