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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #18-99, May 7, 1999

The Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are produced and edited for AFIO by Roy Jonkers, Executive Director. Associate contributing editor ADM Don Harvey (DonH) provided an article for this edition.

This 7 May edition was emailed late, on 10 May, due to computer linkage problems.

WINs contain copyright material and may not be reproduced, with some exceptions listed at the end of Section IV below.

We are up to 949 email addressees. Whoever brings in #950 gets a free book! Every member recruit a new member!


ATTENTION I: -- - AFIO SYMPOSIUM - -Business Intelligence and the Law

25 MAY '99, Rosslyn Virginia (DC area)

See WIN 17-99 ADDENDUM (29 April) for registration form and agenda - which was also mailed to al members.

AFIO members, we need your help - please distribute this Symposium information to individuals or organizations that may benefit from attending.

ATTTENTION II -- - AFIO LUNCHEON at Fort Myer, Va., 14 June 99.

Speaker: The Hon. LAWRENCE EAGLEBURGER, former US Secretary of State and former Ambassador to Yugoslavia

Topic: THE BALKAN SITUATION

This promises to be a fascinating session by an eminent insider that you don't want to miss! Registration - see previous WIN 17-99 ADDENDUM (29 April) or call AFIO.


SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

KOSOVO - NATO bombs targeted and hit the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. Faulty intelligence is being blamed. A joint statement by the SECDEF and the DCI on 8 May cited "faulty information," said "sorry," but reemphasized that the bombing campaign would contine to be increased in intensity. An unidentified 'US official' was cited by AP as stating that the error was due to faulty information from the CIA. But the US European Command and NATO all allegedly screened and approved the target. The Chinese Embassy is (or was) located several hundred yards from the Yugoslav Government building that was the intended target.

Previously, bombs on hospitals, maternity wards, buses, homes etc. were officially blamed as 'inevitable' mis-hits in a 'pure' campaign aimed solely to destabilize the infrastructure of the Yugoslav state - a sort of explanation along the lines of "you can't make an omelet without breaking some eggs." But without a doubt, most of bombs have been successfully delivered on Yugoslav government, industry and communications infrastructure targets - targets which, if they were hit in the US in a single instance of terrorism, would create a great uproar.

In this instance, however, the target selected was the target hit. Initial explanations mention outdated target material of some years ago -- - - but this is somewhat incredible given the amount of current Yugoslav air and space reconnaissance imagery and other intelligence that must be available. Nevertheless, the target selection process is complicated, involving a number of agencies, and human error will occur in the current operations tempo.

Positive fallout for intelligence from this mini-crisis may be indicated by Congressional chairmen Porter Goss (HPSCI) and Richard Shelby (SSCI), who claim that intelligence resources had been overstretched as a result of underfunding for the past decade. Only during the past year has the Intelligence Community benefitted from increases in spending. The current budget requests allegedly amount to about $29 Billion, and purportedly entail a 9% increase in budget authority being sought.

The negative fallout of the US bombing (which constitutes 90% of the NATO effort) of Yugoslavia - and particularly Kosovo -- a turkey-shoot involving up to 700 attacks per day -- continue to spread in terms of widespread internal destruction throughout Yugoslavia, increasing numbers of Albanian and Serb refugees, and possible damage to US external (world) standing and interests (although acting like the old Romans under PAX ROMANA may also have some positive results). The Chinese Government is using the attack on its embassy to engender nationalist popularity at US expense. The Russian government continues in turmoil as Yeltsin impeachment hearings again promise instability and US bombing will be used by politicians there also for their own ends. One must hope for a diplomatic solution -- that could and should have been accomplished before the hasty and semi-ideological reach for the bombs -- and the best in the end. It will all pass soon. (Wpost & WTimes 8 & 9 May99, p. A-1, Wtimes10May, pA11) (RoyJ)

THREATS TO U.S. SATELLITES - The commander of the US Space Command, Gen. R.B. Myers, recently told an air warfare symposium that with the end of the Cold War the US has changed priorities, and this has created a gap in tracking anti-satellite threats. Intelligence priorities, he said, "have over time, migrated to other issues and it leaves us a bit naked in knowing exactly what the threat is."

US Space Command has already noted attempts to degrade satellite operations. "We have seen instances of jamming satellites by Indonesia, Turkey and Iran," he added. So far, the anti-satellite systems have beeen relatively primitive -- jammers as basic radio-frequency transmitters. Sophisticated anti-satellite systems are being developed, however. A DOD statement late last year said: " Given China;s current level of interest in laser technology, it is reasonable to assume Beijing would develop a weapon that could destroy satellites in the future." China already is believed to be capable of damaging optical sensors on satellites. Since the military is increasingly using commercial syustems for day-to-day operations because of the limited bandwidth available on its own systems, one of the main DOD concerns is the vulnerability of commercial communication satellites. Industry has thus far been uninterested in hardening their satellites due to the added coasts. (Av Wk 1Mar99) (DonH)

ISRAEL ESTABLISHES UNIT TO COMBAT "VIRTUAL TERRORISM" - The Israeli police and the military have established a new joint hi-tech effort to combat what is called "virtual terrorism," namely, to deal with persons and/or organizations attempting to penetrate into or disrupt the computer systems of security agencies of the country.

The new unit will be patterned on the bomb-demolition/removal unit model. While some of the personnel deal with neutralizing the problem at hand, the other members will be involved in tracking down the offenders and the subsequent interrogation of suspects once apprehended. In light of successful penetrations into the military's computer systems, and increasing awareness that the next "war" may be fought with computers, officials decided the time for such a unit was overdo.

Computer "freaks" are sought out prior to their induction into the IDF. They then undergo a intensive training program and unleashed on the nation's computer systems - in order to detect vulnerabilities of the computer systems serving the military, government, telephone systems, banks, hospitals etc.

The military has a special unit, serving under the auspices of the military police, to deal with computer crimes. Over 20 computer investigators were certified in the past years and the size of the unit should increase in the current year. The military unit will work with the new joint unit, as well as dealing with investigations of military personnel suspected of unauthorized removal of computer data from classified systems, copying of programs, or intentionally destroying data. One senior officer explained that in some cases, the soldiers involved were unaware of the severity of their actions, not realizing the "big picture" of dealing with the computer system of the nation's military and intelligence communities.

The police also have a special unit assigned to focus on computer-related crimes. In 1998 the computer unit dealt with a 200 percent increase in computer-related crimes compared to the previous year.The IDF added that if there is a successful penetration into the military system, it is determined if the action was intentional for criminal motives or an accidental penetration. In such a case the spokesperson added, the team would immediately begin damage control and simultaneous actions to pinpoint and identify the hacker. (IsraelWire-5/3) (courtesy C. Griffith) (RoyJ)

CIA DDO TO RETIRE - AGAIN -- On Thursday 6 May it was announced that Jack G. Downing will step down as the Deputy Director of Operations (DDO) of CIA next July. Preserving continuity, he will be succeeded by his deputy, James L. Pavitt.

With as many as 5,000 personnel, and responsibility for conducting espionage and covert operations worldwide, the Directorate of Operations generally operates "in the dark," figuratively speaking. The department suffered from disastrously low morale and high personnel losses in the wake of the Aldrich Ames case, to the detriment of US national security. To turn that situation around the current Director, George Tenet, asked Jack Downing, who had retired, to assume the position of DDO and rebuild the department. Downing accomplished that task by building a strategic plan and stressing fundamentals and the basics of tradecraft in personnel management and training. He was fortunate in the great support he received from Rep. Porter Goss, Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, who tirelessly sounded a clarion call on the need for a sound US espionage capability, and who took the lead during the past two years in seeing that additional funds were channeled into CIA to improve clandestine operations.

Jack Downing graduated from Harvard University majoring in Chinese language and history and Asian studies, spent two combat tours as an infantry officer in the US Marine Corps in Vietnam, and entered the CIA in 1967. During his illustrious CIA career he served as Station chief in both Moscow and Beijing, and as Chief of the DO East Asia Division. He retired in 1995, but was talked into serving another two year tour by the DCI in 1997. This tour will conclude in July. He succeeded, as one senior official said, in reminding the entire agency of the importance of the espionage mission, and of the need to get back to basics.

James Pavitt, a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the University of Missouri, joined CIA in 1973. He served as a clandestine case officer and DO official, and also served as the National Security Council's senior director of intelligence programs during the Bush administration. (CIA, WP 7May99 p. A37) (RoyJ)


SECTION II CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

RUMSFELD QUESTIONS OVER-COMPARTMENTALIZATION - When former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who heads the 'Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States,' received briefings at CIA about new missile threats he experienced some inconvenient effects of compartmentalization, and perhaps over-compartmentalization. Analysts frequently had to leave the room when questions arose outside their specialty, when information was discussed for which they were not cleared. As we know, compartmentalization is ordained to protect sensitive sources and methods. The number of compartments ballooned after the Ames case.

Rumsfeld included this as a major issue in a classified report sent in March to Director George Tenet. He said that compartments withheld from key analysts, "can have the effect of seriously impeding the flow of information, distorting analyses and resulting in incomplete or misleading information being presented to policymakers." Rumsfeld was irritated, for example, when he was told at the end of a two-hour briefing, that "most of what we had heard was incorrect," as "the briefers did not have access to the information contained in the compartments that we were now to be briefed on." He continued - "We ended up getting briefed two or three or four times on the same subject because the first two or three didn't have the correct information, not because people were lying to us, but because they did not know."

His recommendation to Tenet was that "we need to find a way to do cross-cutting, so a limited number of people are able to see what is going on in all these countries involved in proliferation." For Rumsfeld and others, over-compartmentalization creates insularity, and harms overall intelligence analysis. To most old intelligence officers, it is a familiar tale.

A senior intelligence official stated that steps were being taken to loosen some compartments, "but the solution must be a balance between access and protection of sources and methods." (W. Pincus in WashPost 5May99, p. A29) (RoyJ)


SECTION III - NEW BOOKS.

SPIES AND ABOTEURS: ANGLO AMERICAN COLLABORATION AND RIVALRY IN HUMAN INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION AND SPECIAL OPERATIONS, 1940-45, by Jay Jakub, St. Martin's Press, Inc., 1999, ISBN 0-312-21327-1. The author is an Oxford-trained intelligence historian presently on the staff of the House intelligence committee (HPSC/I). This is his first unclassified publication, and covers the evolution of relationships between British and US clandestine services, starting as a tutorial with the US as pupil, to an unequal - and subsequently full - partnership, and then, as so often occurs in human organizations, to competition and rivalry. It is the story of "Wild Bill" Donovan and his relationship with the likes of William Stephenson ("Intrepid"), Stewart Menzies ("C"), Admiral John Godfrey, the inscrutable Director of Naval Intelligence, and General Colin Gubbins, Britain's master saboteur. The book is based almost exclusively on recently declassified OSS and British intelligence documents and survivor interviews.

An anecdotal British view of the relationship: "Liaison with the Americans is like having an affair with an elephant: it is extremely difficult, you are apt to get badly trampled on, and you get no results for eight years."

Interestingly enough, the book includes a 'case study' chapter entitled "The Yugoslav Morass," which illustrates the divergence between British and US subversive policy in the European war in this area during the forties. It provides an early view of the morass in which we have presently descended and become embroiled. Excellent reading for students of history. (RoyJ)

SPYMASTERS: TEN CIA CASE OFFICERS IN THEIR OWN WORDS -by Ralph Weber, SR Books, Wilmington DE, 1999, ISBN 0-8420-2715-7 (paper) $19.95. This is a collection of interviews of ten eminent CIA officials, including Sidney Souers, Allen Dulles, Richard Bissell, Samuel Halpern, Lyman Kirkpatric, Robert Amory, Ray Cline, John McCone, Richard Helms, and William Colby. It covers topics ranging from the creation of CIA and the National Security Council to briefing presidents, Khruschev's ousting, Operation Mongoose and the Kennedy assassination, among many others. In my view the interview with AFIO's Sam Halpern alone is worth the price of the book and then some. (RoyJ)


SECTION IV -- AFIO BULLETIN BOARD

CIA CLANDESTINE SERVICE RESERVE CADRE (CSRC) -The DO is seeking former DO officers as candidates for the newly established Clandestine Reserve program to provide a surge capability and additional flexibility. Cadre members may be called upon to augment Headquarters or to deploy to the field. Recent retirees with strong recruiting records, language capabilities, current area knowledge and current security clearances are particularly encouraged to apply, but all categories of former DO officers will be considered. To express interest in participating in the program, send a brief summary of qualifications to: Executive Resume Services, Box 6430, Shirlington Station, Arlington VA 22206. (CIA) (RoyJ)

NATIONAL SECURITY COMMISSION STUDY GROUP REPORT - The National Security Study Group, (a.k.a.the "Hart-Rudman Commission") has posted an interesting paper, entitled "Technology, Society, and National Security," on the NSSG web site. This is a stimulating and interesting view of coming technologies that will shape our future. (Source: http://www.nssg.gov/NSSGtech.pdf . (738K) (http://jya.com/tsns.htm) (NSSG tel 703 602 4175) (RoyJ)

EMPLOYMENT SOUGHT - - Former senior Army Special Operations Officer, excellent analyst and writer (editor's opinion), several years experience developing C3I requirements and systems architectures, is seeking permanent position. Contact AFIO Administrator, tel: 703 790 0320, email <afio@afio.com>, reference File J-122.( Repeat of previous item when AFIO contact numbers were left off)

EMPLOYMENT AVAILABLE -- OPERATIONS RESEARCH ANALYST needed immediately, to do analysis and evaluation of problems, issues and trends, for contract support to HQS USAF Office of Special Investigations (OSI). Requires current TS/SBI. Peform analyses using AFOSI's Criminal and Counterintelligence Terrorism Information System, the AFOSI Business Intelligence System, the Defense Incident-Based Reporting System, and the Investigative Information Management System. Experience doing research using modeling techniques particularly desirable. Position Open Now! Call USATREX, Dir Human Resources Steve Ondrus 703 448 0178, mention AFIO lead provided by Ken Laursen. (RoyJ)


AFIO NATIONAL EVENTS AGENDA

AFIO SYMPOSIUM - -Business Intelligence and the Law 25 MAY '99, Rosslyn, Virginia (DC area)

See WIN 17-99 ADDENDUM (29 April) for registration form and agenda - which was also mailed to al members. Call AFIO 703 790 0320 if in the dark.

AFIO members, we need your help - please distribute this Symposium information to individuals or organizations that may benefit from attending.

AFIO LUNCHEON at Fort Myer, Va., 14 June 99.

Speaker: The Hon. LAWRENCE EAGLEBURGER, former US Secretary of State and former Ambassador to Yugoslavia

Topic: The Balkans

This promises to be a fascinating session by an eminent insider that you don't want to miss! Registration - see previous WIN 17-99 ADDENDUM (29 April) or call AFIO 703 790 0320.

AFIO NATIONAL CONVENTION & SYMPOSIUM - 21, 22 and 23 October '99 at Chantilly, Virginia (near Dulles Airport). The AFIO National Convention will be on October 21st, along with the AFIO Awards Banquet. The AFIO National Symposium will be conducted at the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) auditorium and on the 22nd; and sessions and tours will be scheduled for the 23rd. Mark Your Calendars!!!


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