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The Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are produced and edited for AFIO by Roy Jonkers, AFIO Executive Director.
WINs contain copyright material and may not be reproduced, with some exceptions listed at the end of Section IV below.
NOTICE : I will be in Texas until 25 May, when I will send out WIN #21-99, and then leave on vacation in Europe (France) from 26 May until 14 June. Dr. John Macartney will keep the WINs going while I am gone.
NOTE: WINs are now sent to 968 members - two more to go for a book award to the member bringing in a new member. EVERY MEMBER RECRUIT A NEW MEMBER IN '99!
NEXT WEEK!!! AFIO SYMPOSIUM - -Business Intelligence and the Law -- 25 MAY '99, Rosslyn, Virginia (DC area)
SUPER AGENDA - call AFIO 703 790 0320 to attend.
SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
MIDDLE EAST TRENDS - Confidential CIA reports, which apparently were not confidential enough to be kept away from Israeli officials, detail a growing interaction between Russia, Syria and Iran. The reports outline three areas of concern: firstly, about a potential increase in the supply of advanced technology weapons to Iran and Syria from Russia; secondly, the evidence of an increase in mutual visits by military delegations of the three nations; and thirdly, the political and military implications of an overall strengthening of security relationships.
On the part of Russia, the driving impulse probably is to earn money for their ailing weapons industries, along with an effort to regain some regional influence. On the part of Iran and Iraq, fostering closer relationships with Russia and re-emphasizing the requirement for new weapons and technology, may be an effort to counterbalance the recent agreements between Israel and Turkey involving military training, weapons contracts, intelligence exchanges, etc. Syria finds the Israeli-Turkish pact particularly upsetting.
Israel, for its part, is particularly concerned about potential Russian transfers of sensitive missile technology to Iran. US Intelligence sources indicate that Iran has recently test-fired a ship-launched ballistic missile, which could also be considered a (even if somewhat far-fetched) potential threat to the continental US. Israel, of course, opposes a nuclear-armed Iran with ballistic missiles. Such a development could threaten Israeli regional hegemony and change the current balance of power in the region. (Tel Aviv Ma'arev 2 May 99; NYTimes 1 May 99, p. A4) (KenH & RoyJ)
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT COUNTERINTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY BEEFED UP - According to John Hamre, Deputy Secretary of Defense, about 100 CIA personnel have been assigned to DOD, and more are expected to be added, to assist with counterintelligence and security operations. In context, Pentagon spending on security operations to counter potential attacks by terrorists armed with chemical or biological "weapons" (Weapons of Mass Destruction), has doubled, and will reach $7Billion by the year 2,000. In a related development, the department is also beefing up its security clearance process, requiring each DOD employee to take a personal oath to safeguard classified information. (DefNws May24, 99, p. 2 & 4) (RoyJ)
INDIAN MISSILE DEVELOPMENTS - The Indian Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) is planning to develop a wide range of modern nuclear missiles. The plan envisions development of an intercontinental ballistic missile within two years, along with a medium-range missile and medium-range air-to-air missiles.
The ICBM, nicknamed Surya, is said to be already under development, and is scheduled to be tested in 2001. In addition a 2,000 mile ballistic missile has already been tested - the Agni series - with a production schedule of about 20 missiles by 2001.
India is also developing a medium-range air-to-air missile called Astra. The first of such missiles is scheduled for test firing in October 1999. This missile is to be carried by the Sea Harrier, the MIG-29 and the Su-30.
In context, Russia is preparing an export version of its latest air-to-air missile, the R-77 (NATO designation AA-12, Adder) as part of its upgrade package for the Indian MIG-21 fleet. The R-77 is considered the equivalent of the US AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air missile. About 125 Indian MIG-21's are to be upgraded for $340 Million. The upgraded Indian MIG-21, dubbed the MiG-21-93, is already being flown at the Ahktubinsk test center in southern Russia.
India's plans are relevant not only to Pakistan's nuclear missile posture, but also to China's nuclear missile production strategy. China considers India a threat, requiring nuclear missile parity at the minimum. (DefNws 24May99, p14) (RoyJ)
SECTION II CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE
CYBER TERRORISM AND FRAUD - President Clinton recently requested $2.8 Billion to fight exotic forms of terrorism, including on-line terrorism, as the US is becoming increasingly vulnerable to this threat. Computer hackers could, for example, shut down power grids and intrude or deceive military computer networks.
In a related development, a recent GAO study indicated that Internet fraud is increasing exponentially. One target is on-line trading. The SEC has set up a special unit to monitor this threat, and that unit now receives about 300 fraud tips a day. Techniques include spreading false or misleading information, and getting traders to send money to non-existent brokers. False brokers create web pages inviting clients to send money (e.g. for offshore funds), or duplicate web sites of reputable firms, replacing correct addresses and telephone numbers with false information. Traders beware! (IntelRpt, CTC Intl, Spring99 (561 655 3111) (RoyJ)
CIA EMPLOYEES SUE FOR RIGHTS TO LEGAL HELP - A group of eight current and former CIA employees has brought a lawsuit against the CIA, claiming that the agency does not permit employees to obtain counsel in cases of internal disciplinary actions. The claimants charge that agency officials have refused to provide their attorneys access to CIA regulations and classified investigative reports, denied them access to classified personnel files and intercepted privileged attorney-client phone calls. Attorney Roy Krieger, who filed the complaint, is attempting to have the court certify it as a class action of behalf of all CIA employees. Krieger, who has been given a government security clearance to pursue the action, claims that CIA actions have been "so prevalent as to indicate a policy or practice" in a series of actions involving race, sex and age discrimination, security breaches, counterintelligence investigations and polygraph disputes.
One of the eight disaffected employees identified in the complaint received a reprimand for an alleged major lapse in CIA security - the sale of 25 CIA laptop computers sold to the public while still containing Top Secret information on their respective hard-drives.
The Agency position is that "employees of the CIA are subject to a variety of restrictions that may not be applicable to others, and those restrictions include limitations on access to official information ... Under any theory, plaintiffs simply have no right to have the CIA supply counsel with access to classified information." The access to classified information is reserved to the Executive under the Constitution, an the "Agency's decison that counsel had no need to know this information is entirely discretionary and unreviewable in this Court." (Wpost 14May99, p. A31) (RoyJ)
HISS SPY CASE TESTIMONY TO BE RELEASED - Federal Judge Peter Leisure, US District Court, New York, has ordered the release of grand jury testimony from the 1947 and 1950 investigations into Soviet spying that led ultimately to the perjury conviction of Alger Hiss. This material has been kept secret for the past fifty years. The US Attorney tried to block the release, arguing that it could compromise the safety of witnesses and cloud the integrity of future grand jury investigations.
The Hiss case has been a subject of intense controversy for decades, with true believers on both sides. There is intense historical interest in the case, which has ramifications including the McCarthy hearings and Congreessman Richard Nixon, who also appeared before the grand jury. Hiss was convicted, largely on the evidence presented by Whittaker Chambers, but maintained his innocence until his death at age 92. Recent revelations about Soviet espionage, including the Venona files, have strengthened the case against Hiss. (Wpost 14May99, p. A10)
SECTION III - NEW BOOKS.
Betrayal: How the Clinton Administration Undermined American Security, by Bill Gertz, Regnery, May 1999. Bill Gertz, uses his extensive sources within the government and (unfortunate -- ed. opinion) access to confidential documents in this sensational book. A 3-part series taken from the book appeared in the Washington Times. The book was also reviewed on the Op Ed page of the WTimes. The Justice Department reportedly has considered bringing charges against Gertz for some of his revelations, but this will most likely come to nothing, as such a prosecution would draw further attention to the book and imply that the allegations are factually correct - - something that can now only be inferred, but not taken for granted.
"Betrayal" includes allegations that China stole US nuclear secrets and actually tested a neutron bomb as a result; that China and Pakistan hoodwinked the US on their collaboration on nuclear weapons development; that US policy covered up North Korean nuclear weapons development; that the growing instability in Russia's nuclear establishment endangers US security; that the Administration's anti-ballistic missile defense politics are deceptive; and that there was a 'cover-up' of the alleged incident where a Navy Lieutenant was "lazed" by a Russian merchant ship. And the list goes on from there. (courtesy JohnMac & J. Goulden) (RoyJ)
SECTION IV -- AFIO BULLETIN BOARD
AFIO LUNCHEON at Fort Myer Officers Club, Va., 14 June 99.
Speaker: The Hon. LAWRENCE EAGLEBURGER, former US Secretary of State and former Ambassador to Yugoslavia
Topic: US POLICY in the BALKANS
An eminent insider discusses the political and other ramifications of our policy in the Balkans and Kosovo.
Registration - $26 FOR MEMBERS AND THEIR GUESTS, $29 FOR OTHERS. Send check to AFIO, 6723 Whitter Ave, Ste 303A, McLean VA 22101-4533. Call AFIO if needed (703 790 0320).
MIDWEST CHAPTER MEETING : DATE: June 24,25,26 - Annual Intelligence Seminar, Great Lakes Naval Base, Chicago.
Thursday the 24th is arrival date. Quarters are arranged at the Navy Lodge at Great Lakes, $48 per room.
Friday begins with a working tour of the Joint Reserve INTELLIGENCE Center at Fort Sheridan which works directly with the Center at Molesworth, England. Friday after starts the briefings - Friday evening will be dinner w/guest speaker at the Eagles Nest on base.
Saturday is a full day of briefings from various intel agencies & services, with dinner & speaker Sat night.
Meals are pre-arranged & catered by the Eagles Nest - $8 for breakfast, $8 for the luncheon buffetts, and Friday nite dinner $19, Saturday nite dinner $23.
All AFIO members are welcome and are invited. $10 registration fee per person, or $15 per couple. Itinerary, map & agenda will be mailed to those who register. Send name(s), address & registration fee(s) and room requirements to: Capt Bruce Walker, USN, Ret, 1226 E. Willow, Wheaton, Il 60187 --- tel (630) 653-4196, or inquire firstname.lastname@example.org .
AFIO NEW ENGLAND CHAPTER MEETING - - DATE: July 16-17, 1999 - - LOCATION: Bromley Sun Lodge, Bromley Mountain, Peru, Vermont 05152, Tel. reservations - call (802) 824-6941 /or/ (800) 722-2159. Bromley Sun Lodge is holding 20 rooms for AFIO/NE, at the special rate of $50, until June 16th. Mention AFIO when making the reservation.
As noted in the previous WIN (#19-99) in more detail, the morning speaker will be Ted Morgan (aka Sanche de Gramont), who won the Pulitzer Prize for journalism in 1961.Our afternoon speaker is Linda McCarthy, a 24 year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency. All AFIO members are invited. Contact Peggy Adler to sign up. Tel: (860) 669-7706 and e-mail address (AFIO-NE@juno.com)
CORPORATE MEMBERSHIP PROGRAM -
AFIO MEMBERS ACTIVE IN CORPORATE OR PROFESSIONAL BUSINESSES AND CORPORATIONS: we solicit your help.
Be among the first to sign up, or sponsor, a corporate member!!! Special welcome packet for the first one dozen corporate members and their sponsors!
We have opened our drive to obtain corporate members, a term that also encompasses business and professional offices and enterprises. Corporations that support AFIO principles and objectives may become corporate members.
For a donation of $1,000 per year, corporations will receive
(1) recognition in AFIO publications and Web sites;
(2) have a senior representative as member of the AFIO 'Business Intelligence Advisory Council' (BIAC) that provides advice on non-governmental interests in intelligence, counterintelligence and security matters to the AFIO President and the Chairman of the AFIO Board of Directors;
(3) receive all AFIO publications, including the WIN, with permission to retransmit and disseminate the WIN -- WITHIN their corporation;
(4) receive drastic discounts on exhibit fees at AFIO meetings and symposia,
(5) get free use of the AFIO Employment Exchange on the Web and on the WIN Bulletin Board, and
(6) receive the benefit of AFIO special networking opportunities, protocol treatment and professional education at AFIO conferences, seminars and symposia.
CORPORATE MEMBERSHIP REGISTRATION is simple:
(1) send us a brief note signifying support for the AFIO objectives -- of building a public constitutency supporting a sound and healthy US intelligence system and capability through educational means;
(2) list the name and address (mailing, telephone, fax, email) of the corporation or enterprise;
(3) list the organizational contact point - the person who will receive the AFIO mail for the corporation -- name and telephone/fax/email; and
(4) list the name of the senior organization member who will be the 'protocol' representative and member of the BIAC.
(5) List the name of the AFIO sponsor (if any).
FEE - The above information, with the CHECK made out to AFIO for $1,000, is to be forwarded to: AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, Va 22101-4533
Any questions may be directed to the AFIO VP for Corporate Programs, Jim Boginis (703 283 4233) , or the AFIO Executive Director, Roy Jonkers (tel 703 790 0320, email email@example.com.)
AFIO MEMBERS: Our goal is to eliminate our operating deficit and to enhance our program. We need thirty corporate members to achieve our goal this year. We are working to enhance our program, both for the benefit of our members and to increase our mission accomplishment effectiveness.
We need your support in spreading the word about this program. For those of you who are senior executives, we invite your participation.
CHAPTER PRESIDENTS -- please note: The Corporate program is also meant to support AFIO chapter's public outreach programs. You will receive a $250.00 REBATE to the Chapter if you sponsor a Corporate member. Check with - and work through - our VP for Chapters, Emerson Cooper, (757 653 6107). (RoyJ)
AFIO VP CHAPTERS - The new Vice President for Chapters, Mr. EMERSON COOPER (tel.360 653 6107, fax 360 658 1781), intends to exert himself energetically on behalf of our chapter programs. He will, among other initiatives, facilitate a Chapter Handbook, now being compiled by our Suncoast Chapter's Nat Aldermann Jr.; work with the chapters to implement the Ransburgh Award program, in which each chapter will be provided with $100 by National as part of a Chapter Award outreach program to deserving students; serve as a focal point for the Chapter Corporate Member program (see above); and organize a chapter input (criteria, nominations) for the selection of the winner of the General Stilwell award this year. (RoyJ)
AFIO MUGS FOR SALE -- white coffee cups with the AFIO logo in three colors. The price is $9.95 plus shipping and handling etc. $3.95. SEND CHECK FOR $13.90 per cup to AFIO. We will also have these mugs available for sale at the Convention on
21 October. In the near future we expect to have additional items such as caps, pens etc. Orders and ideas are welcome. (RoyJ)
EMPLOYMENT EXHANGE: New York party is seeking a reliable investigator with quality contacts in financial circles in Brazil and Bolivia. Contact firstname.lastname@example.org
CIA EMPLOYMENT REFERRAL - The CIA Recruitment Center INVITES REFERRALS by former CIA and Intelligence Community professionals.
A referral should be considered for candidates considered competitive, have the candidate's approval, and consist of the candidate's resume and your cover note. Candidates are sought in four general areas -- ANALYSTS (hot areas: computer science, economics, biological and physical sciences or engineering);- - CLANDESTINE SERVICES trainees (hot areas: international experience/ language/ residence, science technology strength, and adjudged a 'calculated risk taker') ; -- ENGINEERS AND SCIENTISTS; and - - PROFESSIONAL SERVICES, such as accounting, acquisition management, graphic designers, secretaries.
Send your employment referral to: Recruitment Center, PO Box 12727, Arlington VA 22209-8727, ATTN: Gil Medeiros (Center Director).
Also available are student internships, cooperative education programs, and graduate study stipends. All are extremely competitive. For application deadlines etc., call toll free number 877 502 0853 for 'Employment Referral Guide' pamphlet. (CIA May '99) (RoyJ)
COLD WAR CERTIFICATE - --- LAST "HOW TO" NOTICE ---- Military and civilian intelligence personnel who served during the period September 1945 to December 1991 are eligible for a 'Cold War Recognition Certificate'. Obtain yours by sending a letter addressed to:
Cold War Recognition, 4035 Ridge Top Road, Fairfax Virginia 22030. Letter and documentation may be mailed or faxed (703 275 6749).
Sample text outline : Address as above; Please send me a Cold War Recognition Certificate for my service during the authorized period of September 2, 1945 to December 26, 1991.
Enclosed is a copy of XXXX (source document) , with my (social security number or military or foreign service number), that verifies my service during the the Cold War. I understand that the enclosed copy of XXXXX (source) document will not be returned.
Submission of this request confirms my faithful service to the nation during the Cold War era. If my service was (ADAPT AS THE CASE MAY BE) in the Armed Forces, I further certify that my discharge was honorable, or general under honorable conditions. If I served as a federal civilian employee, I further certify that the character of my service was honorable.
Please mail my Cold War Recognition Certificate to the following address: XXXXXXXX. Sincerely etc.
NOTE: the above contains the essential elements for successful application. If any essential item is missing, you won't hear anything and get nothing. They will not correspond. (courtesy Fred Battles, Veterans Digest) (RoyJ)
The Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries and notes relevant to US and world intelligence activities, based solely on open source material.
WINs are protected by copyright laws . Re-transmission or re-publishing is not permitted without specific AFIO concurrence of the WIN Editor (email@example.com, with the following EXCEPTIONS:
* One-time email re-transmission of a WIN by an AFIO members for purposes of recruiting a new member;
* Email retransmission by an AFIO member of a single article out of a WIN for non-profit purposes only.
* Email retransmission by a Corporate Member of AFIO to personnel within the member corporation of office. NOTE: Check with the AFIO VP Corporate Membership, Jim Boginis firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com for corporate membership information.
* For use by a professor who is an AFIO member for use in his/her course of instruction.
For back issues, updated periodically, see the AFIO Homepage https://www.afio.com