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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #31-99, August 6, 1999

WINs are commentaries on intelligence-related news items. WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers. WINs are protected by copyright laws and may not be disseminated without approval by the Editor.


ANNOUNCEMENT: AFIO LUNCHEON 13 September 1999 - Fort Myer, Virginia - 10:30 a.m. - 2 pm. Two insiders discuss US behind-the-scenes intelligence operations in the Middle East and Tibet.

MAKE YOUR RESERVATION NOW - See Section IV Bulletin Board below.

ANNOUNCEMENT: Make your hotel reservation for the AFIO National Convention and Symposium 21-23 October soonest to obtain $84.00 / night rate. See Section IV Bulletin Board below.

IN MEMORIAM - We are sad to have to announce that Arizona Chapter President Browitt suddenly passed away. He will be missed. See Bulletin Board, below.


SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

TRANCAUCASUS INTELLIGENCE -- Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen conducted a Joint Press Conference with Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, in Tbilisi, Georgia, symptomatic of the greatly increased US strategic interest in this region, with its inescapable corollary of increased intelligence priorities and involvement.

President Shevardnadze, to whom the US is greatly indebted for his role in dismantling the Soviet empire, began by extending his profound gratitude "for all the assistance and support that the United States has provided to us in the process of building an independent state here in Georgia." After discussing the Georgian government's problems in Abkhazia (massive human rights abuses and ethnic cleansing), he said they "discussed problems pertaining to the transport of energy resources from Central Asia and the Caspian region to the West. We also discussed the restoration and re-establishment of the Great Silk Road."

"All these issues need to be taken very seriously, and we have to attach great importance to the problems of defense because the intensification of transport through the Caucasus, being a very positive development on the one hand, is a phenomenon by which we can risk increased trafficking of drugs and terrorist movement, and it is imperative for us to prevent these phenomena."

He concluded by thanking SecDef Cohen for US support to Georgia's army, saying that "today Georgian borders are patrolled by the Georgian Border Guard, and this has been made possible due to the financial and economic assistance that is provided to us by the United States."

SecDef Cohen responded by saying that "The United States strongly supports Georgia's sovereignty and Georgia's territorial integrity." With US assistance, Georgia has begun to control its own borders. "The helicopters that we plan to provide will support this effort and a variety of military and humanitarian activities. Our militaries are working closely together to help Georgia meet its security needs and to support Georgia's goal as a force for stability in the region. This year our militaries will carry out 30 joint exercises--training events and other contacts. That's a threefold increase since 1995. We have established a bilateral working group to help Georgia improve its defense planning, its resource allocation, and military training. Georgia's military reform program is serious--it's sensible and successful."

Seen in conjunction with the expanded view of NATO's role, the creation of an airpower projection infrastructure (see below), and our strategic interest in supporting Big Oil in the construction of a pipeline from the Caspian basin through Armenia and Georgia to Turkey and the Mediterranean -- by-passing Russian and Iranian territory -- it is clear that the foundations for an active US (or NATO) involvement in the Trans-Caucasus are being laid. (OSD / Public Affairs, 1 August 99) (courtesy Carl Griffith) (RoyJ)

US / NATO INFRASTRUCTURE EXTENDING INTO TO THE CAUCASUS AND BEYOND - NATO is preparing to extend its influence through a joint military-civil airspace management infrastructure into the trans-Caucasus and beyond, into Central Asia.

This effort builds on a 4-year old project called Regional Airspace Initiative to install modern, harmonized Air Sovereignty and Operations Centers (ASOCs) in countries belonging to Partnership for Peace. The Regional Initiative is funded by the US and now sponsored by NATO. Ed. NOTE: Former US Air Force USAFE personnel will recognize the ASOC acronym by their old Cold War name as Air Support Operations Centers -- for (NATO) air battle control.

The ASOCs will permit the seamless exchange of the air picture data of each country with each other and with NATO, and permit future add-on's such as weapon control and intercept capabilities as well as surface-to-air missile defense links to NATO's Airborne Early Warning and Control system aircraft. The new ASOCs are being built by Lockheed Martin Tactical Defense Systems, under a program managed by the USAF Electronics Systems Center, Hanscom AFB, Massachussetts.

ASOCs have been started in ten European nations, including a joint ASOC for the Baltic republics (in Lithuania), and three have become operational in March of this year -- in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Other ASOCs are underway in Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, and Macedonia.

The Balkan region has been identified as a priority for ASOC development, including prospective ASOCs in Bosnia, Croatia and Albania. Following that, the ASOC infrastructure development will proceed further east, to include Moldavia, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, extending US and NATO's influence deeper into former Soviet territory. A trans-Caucasus working group on regional cooperation will hold its first meeting in September. A NATO official was quoted as saying the "I wouln't be surprised if more regions were created"(under NATO's aegis), including Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

The next priorities for US intelligence as well as operations are clearly in sight, bolstered by the recent US success in getting NATO to adopt an activist and potentially interventionist posture, based primarily on airpower, as already demonstrated in Yugoslavia. The new NATO strategic concept, released as an 18-page document on April 24th, takes official note of the evolving "strategic environment" and extends its security interests from territorial self-defense to a new vision: "Alliance security interests can be affected by other risks of a wider nature, including acts of terrorism, sabotage, and organized crime, and by the disruption of the flow of vital resources." And further on "as NATO forces may be called upon to operate beyond NATO's borders," Allied capabilities must be "flexible, mobile, rapidly deployable and sustainable."

The new ASOC infrastructure is one step in building a potential air power projection capability needed for an increased US / NATO sphere of influence in the area, while a weak Russia is occupied with problems on the north side of the Caucasus range. . (Def News, 2Aug99, p.3; AF Mag, June99, p.20) (RoyJ)


SECTION II CONTEXT AND PRECEDENT

INFORMATION WARFARE POTENTIALS REVIEWED -- A recent review of the current situation for information warfare, or cyber war, against the United States, cited the following:

  • The US GAO estimates that 120 groups or countries have, or are developing, information-warfare systems.
  • The Center for Strategic and International Studies report indicates 23 nations have cyber-targeted the U.S.
  • The National Computer Security Center reported last year that of "520 large US corporations, government agencies, and universities that responded to their survey, 64% reported intrusions, up 16% in a year. The internet was the main point of attack.
  • DOD states that its computer systems are attacked 60 - 80 times a day.
  • In January of this year, a coordinated computer attacked targeted the US Air Intelligence Command. The attack appeared to come from Russia, but Russia may only have been used as a screen for the real location.
  • Chinese hackers attacked US Web sites following the bombing of the Chinese Embassy, causing damage, but also gave away the hidden "location" of several "backdoors" they had built into US Government networks.
  • In a 1997 exercise, NSA hired 35 hackers to simulate attacks on the national information structure. The hackers obtained "root access" -- the highest level of control -- in 36 of the government's 40,000 networks. If the exercise had been real, they could have created power outages across Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington and new York; could have taken out most of the Pacific Command communications; and could have gained access to computer systems aboard Navy ships.
  • According to a database analysis firm working for the US government, there are at least six nations right now who have active groups, paid by their governments, trying to formulate tools and procedures to cause computer terrorism in US corporations. The countries are Syria, Iran, China, India, Pakistan and Israel. (Other experts added France and Russia to this group). "Some are doing it for defense reasons, but they all have backdoors into American government computers."

The US government is taking information warfare seriously. The Administration recently announced a $1.46 billion program to improve US government computer security, including the creation of special "Cyber Cop" units to work with both government and industry. (Chr. Science Monitor, 24 Jun 99, p. 13) (Don Harvey)

NON-PROLIFERATION INTELLIGENCE -- - The United States and Ukraine extended the agreement to continue the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program to December 2006.

Through the CTR program, also known as the Nunn-Lugar program after its primary congressional sponsors, the US Department of Defense provides equipment, services and technical advice to assist Ukraine, Russia and other newly independent states in preventing proliferation and in securing and dismantling Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), related materials, and production facilities inherited from the former Soviet Union.

Through fiscal 1999, Congress has provided a total of $2.7 billion for CTR programs. Of that amount, $569 million has been dedicated to efforts in Ukraine.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine inherited the third largest nuclear stockpile in the world after the United States and Russia. CTR assistance has helped Ukraine to transfer all of the nuclear warheads on its soil back to Russia for dismantlement. By the spring of this year CTR had achieved the complete elimination of SS-19 ICBMs including 111 missiles, 130 missile silos, and 13 launch control centers. By extending the Umbrella Agreement, the U.S. and Ukraine will be able to continue similar efforts to prevent proliferation and reduce WMD arsenals over the next seven years.

The CTR program in Ukraine will now focus on eliminating SS-24 ICBMs and missile silos, Bear and Blackjack heavy bombers, and air-launched cruise missiles. CTR will also help to dismantle the former Soviet nuclear weapons infrastructure in Ukraine, including weapons storage sites, ICBM production sites, and missile propellant handling facilities. It will also continue to promote improved defense relations between the United States and Ukraine by funding a program of defense and military contracts. (DoD Press Release No. 365-99, 5 August 99) (courtesy Carl Griffith) (RoyJ)

ESPIONAGE AND THE IRS -- (Aldrich) Ames v Conner 112 Tax Court No 20.

The court recently made life more unpleasant for spies. It held that illegal income - whether from embezzlement, kickbacks, bribes, or, espionage - is still income during the year it is "earned", and subject to the same taxes, penalties and interest as any other type of income.

The taxpayer-spy here (Aldrich Ames) argued that illegal receipts were constructive income to him in 1985 when the KGB first informed him that a fund had been set aside for him -- not during the years 1989 through 1992, the years he actually received funds.

The Tax Court held that the taxpayer received the illegal income during the years 1989 through 1992. He did not constructively receive the income in 1985 because he did not possess "unfettered control" over the funds, even assuming they were in existence and segregated for his exclusive benefit. So long as the Soviets retained control over any funds or promised set-asides, there was no way the taxpayer could control payment.

Comment: The taxpayer communicated with the KGB primarily through a complex arrangement of signal sites ( a prearranged location where an individual leaves an impersonal mark or item to convey a prearranged message) and dead drops (locations for secretly leaving packages for anonymous pickup). The taxpayer personally met with the KGB only about once a year. Throughout 1989-1992, it was typical for the taxpayer to make a delivery of information and receive cash by means of signal sites and dead drops. It was this arrangement which the Tax Court saw as evidence of lack of "unfettered control" by the taxpayer over the funds. Ames received funds 1989-1992. The IRS demanded its due. Even for noxious spies like Ames, nothing assured but death and taxes.(courtesy Alan Lefkowitz) (RoyJ)


SECTION III - BOOKS.

The CIA and the U-2 Program, 1954-1974, by George W. Pedlow and Donald E. Welzenback (CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence), National Technical Information Service, 333 pages), 1999. At a Pentagon meeting in April 1954, Gen. Curtis LeMay, commander of the Strategic Air Command, fretted as scientists briefed him on a new high-altitude reconnaissance plane that could fly over the Soviet Union undetected by radar. "Midway through the briefing, he arose, took his cigar out of his mouth, and told the briefers that, if he wanted high-altitude photographs, he would cameras in his B-36 bombers . . . that he was not interested in a plane that had no wheels nor gun." He stalked out, saying the "the whole business was a waste of his time."

Thus it came to pass that the U-2 plane, the most successful US intelligence effort of the Cold War, came to rest at the CIA. Ironically, Allen Dulles did not want the program either, preferring human spies. President Eisenhower, fortunately, strongly supported spy planes to obtain strategic intelligence on the Soviet Union and its satellites, so Dulles had no choice.

CIA and the Lockheed Corporation had a U-2 ready for its first operational flight over Poland and East Germany on June 20, 1956. Eisenhower was edgy about flights over the USSR, fearing they "might lead to hostilities." Allen Dulles assured him "that we were unlikely to lose one. If we did lose one, the pilot would not survive." Dulles was wrong on both counts, of course, and a Soviet rocket knocked Francis Gary Powers out of the sky on 1 May 1960. By then, U-2s had flown over the USSR 24 times, producing almost 250 miles of film covering about 15 percent of the country, giving military planners a valuable picture of Soviet capabilities. Satellites then took over the surveillance mission. (Review by Joseph Goulden, Wash. Times 6 June 99, page B6) (RoyJ)

ERRATA: Re - OPERATION SOLO, History Channel item in the last WIN, (WIN#30) - the reference to Herbert Hoover in last sentence should, of course, be to J. Edgar Hoover.


SECTION IV -- BULLETIN BOARD

AFIO SEPTEMBER LUNCHEON, Monday 1030 - 14:00 hrs, 13 September, Fort Myer, Va. -- - Two outstanding speakers:

At 11 a.m., Rick Francona, retired intelligence officer, point man for US covert assistance to Iraq during the Iraq-Iran war, and interpreter for General Schwarzkopf during the Gulf War, will speak on intelligence and policy issues concerning Iraq's transition from ally to adversary.

Lunch 12:00 - 13:00

At 1 pm, Kenneth Knaus, who spent four decades as an operations officer in CIA, will speak on his participation in the planning, directing and execution of America's covert attempts to aid Tibetan resistance.

This luncheon occasion again promises to be an exceptionally interesting event. Introduce AFIO to a guest -- members and their guests $26, others welcome at $29. Send check to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533.


AFIO NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM AND CONVENTION 21-23 OCTOBER 1999.

--- The AFIO National Symposium, INTELLIGENCE 2000, will start on Thursday 21 October, with presentations 12:30 until 4 pm at the Marriott Hotel at Tysons Corner, Virginia, and continuing on Friday 22 October, hosted by the Honorable Keith Hall, Director NRO, at the NRO Auditorium in Chantilly, Virginia from 0800 until 1700 hrs.

A stellar cast of speakers has been invited to participate in the "Intelligence 2000" symposium, including, beside the host, the Hon. Keith Hall, (in alphabetic order):

Mr. Lee Hamilton, Director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars;

Mr. Jeffrey Harris, former Director NRO and President of Remote Sensing,Inc.;

Lieutenant General Patrick Hughes, USA, Director DIA;

Mr. Richard Kerr, former Deputy DCI;

the Honorable Warren Rudman, Chairman of the President's Foreign Advisory Board;

the Hon. Ted Stevens, US Senator - Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee;

Colonel Richard Stotts, Commander of the USAF Information Warfare Center;

and the Hon. George Tenet, Director of Central Intelligence.

RADM (ret) Don McDowell. donmcdo@aol.com is the Symposium Chairman.

- - The AFIO National CONVENTION will convene on Thursday at 4 pm with a general membership meeting, and continue with a reception and the Awards Banquet on Thursday evening. Special tours may be arranged on Friday, and conferences with Board and Chapter members will continue on Saturday morning.

Programs and full information will be mailed out shortly and also provided via email (afio@afio.com)

NOTE: For out-of-town members and guests, arrangements for lodging may be made with the Tysons Corner Marriott hotel, To qualify for the SPECIAL RATE of $84 per night (good for Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights only) you MUST mention ASSOCIATION OF FORMER INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS.

Early hotel reservations are recommended (soonest), as the Marriott is expected to fill rapidly and early due to other events in the area. Call hotel at 703 734 3200 (fax 703 442 9301) or 1 800 228 9290.


EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE

---- AFIO member with private detective agency primarily concerned with intellectual property investigations and "gray market" work, is looking for someone in southern New Jersey area with an intelligence background to work on complex cases. Interested individuals contact afio@afio.com and reference File E-15.

----Young Associate Member, MA National Security Boston University, with graduate courses in counterintelligence, intelligence and policy, weapons proliferation and information warfare, basic Russian language ability, familiar with Internet search engines, junior analyst with National Republican Senatorial Committee, seeks entry level position. Interested parties ref. File J-123.


IN MEMORIAM

It is with the greatest regret that we must convey the passing of James W. Browitt, a longtime AFIO Life Member (1981) and the President of AFIO's Arizona Chapter (since 1993) , who died suddenly and unexpectedly of a heart attack on August 9th in Dewey, Arizona. James Browitt served in the US Army's Counterintelligence Corps during WWII and up to 1951 and was a volunteer worker with the Cocochinno County Sheriff's department.

We sadly render a last salute to our longtime AFIO colleague and partner, with our gratitude for his dedication of time and effort to our mission.


RE: HEART ATTACK SURVIVAL INTELLIGENCE item in WIN#30 - please note that Mended Hearts organization (a support group for heart disease patients and families) is asking to stop the circulation of the article on the basis that "There is no evidence to show that this is a medically proven procedure." They explain that the procedure is also known as "cough CPR" and is used in emergency situations by PROFESSIONAL staff. Draw your own conclusions. (courtesy Ed Boelte) (RoyJ)


AFIO CORPORATE PROGRAM - AFIO invites corporations that can identify with and support AFIO objectives, including the building of a public constituency for a sound and healthy US intelligence capability, to become corporate members of the association. The annual fee is $1,000, and includes a number of specific benefits as well as making a significant contribution to a worthy cause.

For more information check with AFIO's Vice President for Corporate Programs, Jim Boginis , or tel: 540 338 4652.


WINs are now sent to 1,050 AFIO members and subscribers. We need 50 more new members in August to reach our goal of 1,100 WIN readers by the end of the month.

For enrolling new member #1020, William D. Hall, we thank his sponsor Donald Calese, who will receive a book as a small token of appreciation.

Our thanks also goes out to the other AFIO members who sponsored new members. Our goal can only be reached with your help and participation!

EVERY MEMBER SPONSOR A NEW MEMBER IN 1999! How? Let us know to whom we can send a membership application.

If a gift, you may fill out the membership application, and we will send the recipient a membership along with a card announcing your gift.

If you need membership brochures to hand out, let us know.

You know where to find us -- email , or tel 703 790 0320 -- or AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533 (Mrs Gretchen Campbell)

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