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Weekly Intelligence Notes
31 March 2000

WINs are produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers. WINs are protected by copyright laws and may not be reproduced except with the permission of the producer/editor afio@afio.com

Warning Notice: Perishability of Links:  WINs, sent weekly to members, often contain numerous webpage links to fast-breaking news, documents or other items of interest; unfortunately, after four weeks many of these websites [especially newspaper and other media sites] remove items or shift them into fee-only archives.  This underscores the benefit of receiving the WINs as they are released.
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SECTION I: CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

BIN LADEN WEAKENED --
Since the deadly bombings of US embassies in 1998 that killed 228 people in Tanzania and Kenya, attributed to bin Laden, a number of planned terrorist acts in the US, Jordan, Albania and elsewhere have been foiled. Reportedly a round-the-clock focus on bin Laden's movements and methods have proven effective. Dozens of terrorists, reportedly trained in Afghanistan and said to be connected with bin Laden, have been arrested in Britain, Germany, Canada, Jordan, Pakistan and the US. Informants in the Middle East and elsewhere have provided intelligence and law enforcement officials with valuable information, after infiltrating bin Laden's "al Qaeda" network and training camps in Afghanistan. Michael Rolince, Chief of the FBI International Terrorism Section, cites the indictments in the embassy bombings and the arrests of some of those indicted individuals as evidence of successes. Ely Karmon, of the International Policy Institute for Counterterrorism in Israel said that bin Laden has lost a lot of his infrastructure.
Nevertheless, said a senior US intelligence official, "Like any good terrorist, he has modified his approach and changed some of his standard operating procedures to reflect the increased scrutiny that his organization has come under." For example, bin Laden has shifted his focus to "soft targets" such as hotels and tourist sites rather than embassies, and has recruited Algerian terrorists and others who are not members of al Qaeda to carry out attacks. He has also broadened the scope of operations, claiming success for his role in Czechnya against the Russians - yet another set of infidels. And he has begun to empower a second tier of individuals within his organization with more authority. But, says a US intelligence official, he still "makes the decision when he wants to try and kill Americans." (Wpost 11 Mar 2000, p. A3, David Vise and Lorraine Adams) (Jonkers)

UN INVESTIGATOR CLAIMS KOSOVO A HAVEN FOR THE MOB -- Jiri Dienstbier, a U.N. special human rights investigator, claimed on March 20 that the absence of intact civilian power structures in Kosovo had made the region a veritable playground for various different mafia groups. The statement followed a 10-day visit to Yugoslavia where Dienstbier honed in on the problems that have faced the region since NATO-led "peacekeepers" (KFOR) were sent to the area in June, 1999. He reportedly indicted the international community for short-sightedness in bombing the region without knowing what to do with the area following the attack.
Although the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) is officially no longer in existence, Dienstbier explained that the power institutions now set up by the KLA are entrenched and would be difficult to remove. And in a notable corollary, Dienstbier claimed that, according to a U.S. anti-narcotics organization, 40 percent of Europe's heroin traffic was now traveling through Kosovo.
A number of observers have viewed our Yugoslav policies and particularly the US-run Rambouliet ultimatum process and subsequent bombing campaign destroying the Serbian civic infrastructure, and killing, maiming or wounding thousands of Serbs and Kosovars - and greatly contributing to the number of Kosovar refugees - as failures in diplomacy, damaging to our global security strategy, and a needless expenditure of our moral capital. It can also be considered as testimony to the unfortunate fact that even the best intelligence cannot overcome policymakers' errors -- but on the other hand that our intelligence supporting the military operations was, and still is, the best .
In addition to the boost for the European heroin trade, one of the other unfortunate yet predictable results of our alliance with Kosovo's Stalinist KLA extremists, formerly recognized by US intelligence as terrorists and narcotics criminals, has been yet another US-underwritten ethnic-cleansing and atrocity campaign in the former Yugoslavia. (SOURCES #164, 22 Mar 00) http://www.dso.com/cgibin/dso.newsearch.cgi? searchin=both&cartid=% CARTID%&searchfor=Kosovo ; WTimes 31 Mar 00, p. A29) (Jonkers)

HACKERS ATTACK RUSSIAN WEBSITE
- Hackers replaced the Russian military news agency's (AVN) Internet homepage with a string of insults written in English about Russia's army and leaders, the agency reported Wednesday. The hackers also changed some of the site's server configurations.
The AVN agency said the hackers were working from bases in Russia, Britain's Staffordshire University, and from Brazil. According to AVN, one of the hackers involved in the February attack on Yahoo and e-Bay had proclaimed as the objective "to totally exclude Russia from cyberspace to punish it for the war in Chechnya." The hacker, known under the pseudonym "Smart Doggy," promised continued attacks against sites linked to the Russian war effort. (No web link available) (Levine's Newsbits, leanalyst@inteltec.net  http://rlevine.home.netcom.com/newsbits.html) (Jonkers)

SECTION II: CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

SENATE CYBER DEFENSE COMMITTEE FORMED
-- Sen. Bob Bennett was appointed Monday to head a new Senate group designed to be a central clearing house for information on how to combat cyber-attacks. That comes after Bennett, R-Utah, said last week that he fears the next world war will not be fought with tanks and missiles, but by enemy hackers attacking the nation's computers to crash everything from the nation's utilities to its banking.
Bennett also headed a similar committee that oversaw combating the Year 2000 computer glitch. His new Critical Infrastructure Protection Working Group emerges largely to address threats warned about by the earlier Y2K committee Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., said he formed the group and named Bennett to head it because "recent hacker attacks on major e-commerce and government Web sites demonstrate the importance of information security." (Levine) leanalyst@inteltec.net 

RUSSIANS ARREST BRITISH MOLE -- On 15 March Russians arrested a senior Russian "special services" intelligence official, reportedly recruited by the British in Estonia. The alleged Russian spy is currently being detained in a high-security Russian prison, according to Federal Security Service (FSB) sources. The FSB implicated Estonian intelligence in the espionage operation. They claimed that the alleged spy often made contact with his British associates in Tallinn. Former Soviet states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, are said to have proven to be useful agents for Western nations gathering intelligence and recruiting spies.
(Itar-Tass News Agency March 25, Sources #170, Mar30, 2000) (Jonkers)

NATO AIR TARGETING PLANS IN KOSOVO LEAKED --
After a myriad of rumors and denials and speculation, a DoD spokesman has publicly acknowledged that NATO suffered security breaches in the early days of the Kosovo bombing campaign. The spokesman said NATO authorities believe that the Serbs somehow gained access to portions of the air tasking order, the blueprint for the bombing missions. The theory is that parts of the order were sent by facsimile machine from representatives to NATO headquarters in Brussels back to their home capitals. Another possible explanation might be that "too many of the allied aircraft sent their transmissions in the clear," allowing the Serbs to intercept the pilots' radio traffic. Despite British news stories of a Serbian spy in NATO's ranks, the DoD representatives denied any reports of indications of a spy in NATO. "We have no concrete evidence of any spy operating during Allied Force," the spokesman said.
Leaked information apparently enabled the Serbs to move surface-to-air missile batteries in anticipation of NATO flight plans.in the early days, but there is no indication that either of the two US aircraft downed during the air war was hit because of a leak. When the allied air forces changed their procedures, such as making greater use of encoded communications and limiting distribution of tasking orders, "the problem went away." He added, "The analysts who looked at it in our building think it was mainly a problem of sloppy communications."
Older observers are probably moved to wonder if the US has ever been involved in a shooting war in which one of the earliest lessons learned did not point to non-existent or sloppy operational security. (Wpost 10 March 2000, p. A2) (Harvey)

SECTION III: BOOKS AND SOURCES

"ESPIONAGE 101."
The Mar 27 issue of NEWSWEEK carries a short note with the
misleading title, above, on page 8. It refers to an 81-page monograph, "Intelligence Essentials for Everyone, " by Liza Krizan, published in June 1999 as Occasional Paper Number Six by DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College  http://www.dia.mil/jmic.html
The monograph was written by Krizan, a DoD analyst, as part of her thesis
while earning a masters degree in Strategic Intelligence at the College in 1996. It had been sitting unread on my bookshelf for 9 months when the Newsweek story prompted me to take a look. Well, it's an excellent primer on intelligence--but don't expect to find secrets, derring-do or skullduggery. It's mostly theoretical and practical, about knowledge and analysis -- an epistemology of intelligence if you will.
But don't let that put you off. This is an excellent book for those who work in intelligence, whether in the public or private sector, as well as those who teach about or simply want to better understand the intelligence business. It would also make a very good introductory text, whether for university students or government trainees. It's available on-line from GPO for, I think, $6.50.
http://ww1.access.gpo.gov/GPOAccess/sitesearch/su_docs_sale/market/00-82.html
(Macartney)

CASSIDY'S RUN - Double Agent for Twenty Years -- A new book to be published shortly is reported to relate the story of Joseph Cassidy, an Army sergeant working as an FBI double agent against the Soviet Union for more than 20 years. Mr. Cassidy, now living in retirement in Florida at age 79, has said in an interview, "The book is extremely accurate about my role as a double agent."
The case is revealed for the first time in David Wise's book, "Cassidy's Run: The Secret Spy War Over Nerve Gas." The FBI devised the dangle of Cassidy before Soviet intelligence officers to learn more about Soviet intelligence operations in America and to keep the KGB/GRU busy with an American agent under FBI control, rather than with real spies. The USSR was provided genuine U.S. nerve gas secret information concerning a formula that had been tried but had then been abandoned because it was considered too unstable for weapons use. Mr. Cassidy passed to the Russians documents indicating the nerve agent had been successfully developed in the hopes the false data would lead the USSR to waste time and effort up a blind alley and also to convince them the US was ahead in nerve gas development. The nerve gas deception operation ran for over three years. The news account did not cover any other deceptions the FBI concocted and ran via Mr. Cassidy, but the book states that the case ultimately allowed the FBI to unearth deep-cover Soviet moles operating in the US who were assigned by the Russians to work with Mr. Cassidy.
As portrayed in the news story, the affair would appear to be a clear HUMINT success for the US in the Cold War. It will be interesting to see how the media cover the book's release inasmuch as intelligence community failures, as perceived by the media, are usually accorded prolonged and prominent treatment. (NY Times 5 Mar '00, p. 13 by James Risen) (Harvey)

Annual Defense Report 2000 -- Forwarded to the President and Congress annually, the Secretary of Defense's Annual Defense Report serves as a basic reference document for those interested in national defense issues and programs. The 350-page 2000 edition is available in HTML and .pdf formats. It covers topics such as defense strategy, the current state of the armed forces, plans for transforming the armed forces and the Department of Defense, statutory reports from the individual secretaries, and a number of appendices. The Department of Defense (DOD) Annual Defense Report page contains previous reports to 1995 and an internal search engine. [MD] 
From The Scout Report, Volume 6, N 44, March  http://www.dtic.mil/execsec/adr2000/ target=_top http://www.dtic.mil/execsec/adr2000/Annual Defense Report -- DOD
http://www.dtic.mil/execsec/adr_intro.html  (Bancroft)

The Electronic Frontier: -- In August of 1999, President Clinton issued Executive Order 13133, which called for the creation of a Working Group to analyze unlawful conduct on the Internet. This month, the Working Group has released its report, which is now available at the Website of the US Department of Justice (DOJ). It is entitled The Electronic Frontier: The Challenge of Unlawful Conduct Involving the Use of the Internet: A Report of the President's Working Group on Unlawful Conduct on the Internet.
The report discusses the legal framework in which online crimes exist, the challenges facing law enforcement agencies in the online environment, and the role of public education and empowerment in combating online crime. Separate appendices focus on particular types of crime on the Internet, including fraud, child pornography, intellectual property theft, and the sale of controlled substances.
The report is available on the CCIPS homepage (see below). Launched by the DOJ on March 13, 2000, this site details their efforts to stop online crime. Here users will find materials such as speeches, reports, press releases, and testimony, covering topics including "prosecuting computer hacking, intellectual property piracy and counterfeiting, legal issues related to electronic commerce, freedom of speech, searching and seizing computers, encryption, privacy, and international aspects of cybercrime."
( From The Scout Report, Volume 6, N 43; March 17, 2000, Copyright Internet Scout Project 1994-2000. http://scout.cs.wisc.edu/  http://www.usdoj.gov/criminal/cybercrime/unlawful.htm Computer Crime and Intellectual Property Section (CCIPS) can be found at http://www.cybercrime.gov/ 
(Bancroft)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Commentary and opinions included are those of the Producer/ Editor Roy Jonkers or the associate editors (RADM (ret) Don Harvey or Professor (ret) John Macartney), or the contributor listed in the tagline.

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