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Weekly Intelligence Notes
2 June 2000

WINs contain intelligence-related open source items and commentaries produced and edited by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers. Associate Editor John Macartney was a major contributor to this WIN.

WINs are protected by copyright laws and may not be reproduced except with the permission of the producer/editor <afio@afio.com>.

Warning Notice: Perishability of Links:  WINs, sent weekly to members, often contain numerous webpage links to fast-breaking news, documents or other items of interest; unfortunately, after four weeks many of these websites [especially newspaper and other media sites] remove items or shift them into fee-only archives.  This underscores the benefit of receiving the WINs as they are released.
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SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

NATIONAL OPERATIONS & ANALYSIS HUB (NOAH) - A NEW NATIONAL FUSION CENTER? -- Representative Curt Weldon (R. PA) is advocating the establishment of a new government-wide "data mining" agency tasked with developing threat profiles of terrorists and world hotspots - a national fusion agency. NOAH would be modeled after the Army's Land Information Warfare Activity (LIWA) at Fort Belvoir, Virginia, which Congressman Weldon credits with one of the most effective massive data mining and profiling capabilities in the intelligence community. NOAH would integrate the more than 28 intelligence community networks as well as databases from a vast array of government agencies, in a "very controlled environment of classified and unclassified systems," to support policymakers. Rep. Weldon, who chairs the House Military Research and Development Subcommittee, stated that "in the 21st century, you have to be able to monitor where information is going and who's tapping into it. You have to be able to do massive data mining, and nobody can do that today." Weldon wants to kick-start NOAH this year with funding in the DOD budget.
On the face of it, this appears to conflict with CIA's charter of being the central focus and integrator of the nation's intelligence production. The technology juggernaut is moving apace, however, and one must remain nimble and adapt fast or wither on the vine, a challenge for older companies and agencies alike. One surmises the DCI will adapt. (Federal Computer Wk, 8 May2000; SIGNAL April 2000) (Jonkers & Macartney)

EU TO REMOVE ALL RESTRICTIONS ON EXPORTING STRONG ENCRYPTION -- The European ministers of Foreign Affairs are expected to decide to lift all barriers to the export of encryption software to countries outside the European Union. The US opposes that, but our own restrictions have already loosened most of the way. <http://www.heise.de/tp/english/inhalt/te/8179/1.html> (Macartney)

PENTAGON ESTIMATE OF 2020 CYBER-WARFARE -- A Joint Staff report published on 31 May ("Joint Vision 2020") discusses the U.S. military capability by 2020 to conduct attacks on foreign computers and networks while defending its systems against strategic information warfare strikes. The military also will seek to improve weaknesses uncovered during the Kosovo conflict last year to better conduct operations with allies in combat. In conjunction, a senior DOD official said last week that DOD is redefining the emerging field of high-tech information operations, based on the lessons learned from the 78-day air war in Kosovo.
<http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2000/0529/news-nato-05-29-00.asp>
<http://www.washtimes.com/national/default-200053122319.htm>
(R Levine <rlevine@ix.netcom.com>NewsBits - 06/01/00) (Jonkers)

US MILITARY TURNING ATTENTION TO ASIA -- When Pentagon officials first sat down last year to update the core planning document of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, they listed China as a potential future adversary, a momentous change from the last decade of the Cold War. But the final version of the document, titled "Joint Vision 2020," (see above item also) is far more discreet. Rather than explicitly pointing at China, it simply warns of the possible rise of an unidentified "peer competitor."
The Joint Chiefs' wrestling with how to think about China--and how open to be about that effort--captures in a nutshell the U.S. military's quiet shift away from its traditional focus on Europe. Cautiously but steadily, the Pentagon is looking at Asia as the most likely arena for future military conflict, or at least competition. This new orientation is reflected in many small but significant changes: more attack submarines assigned to the Pacific, more war games and strategic studies centered on Asia, more diplomacy aimed at reconfiguring the U.S. military presence in the area. It is a trend that carries huge implications for the shape of the armed services. It also carries huge stakes for U.S. foreign policy. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7981-2000May25.html> (Macartney)

FBI TO ISSUE LIST OF INTERNET VULNERABILITIES - - The FBI, the Department of Justice and the System Administration, Networking and Security Institute are jointly releasing a list detailing the 10 most critical Internet security threats and how to eliminate them. There are no shockers in the List. The NUMBER ONE security mistake is an obvious one - opening e-mail attachments without checking the source or content. (RLevine Newbits 1 June2000) (Jonkers)
(<http://www.thestandard.net/article/display/0,1151,15608,00.html>)

TAIWAN TO GET GROUND STATION FOR US SATELLITE DATA -- According to Space Daily, the Taiwanese military is building a ground station to receive China data collected by US spy satellites. (The article does not make clear whether it is referring to SIGINT or IMINT or perhaps commercial imagery). <http://www.spacedaily.com/news/china-00z.html> (Macartney)

US PLACES TAIWAN ON INTELLIGENCE THREAT LIST -- In a departure from longtime policy, the US Justice Dept has placed Taiwan on the FBI's secret list of hostile intelligence threats. Listed, in order of priority are: Russia, China, North Korea, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Serbian-controlled Bosnia, Vietnam, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Sudan and Taiwan. <http://www.washtimes.com/national/default-2000524233846.htm> <> (Macartney)

US SPECIAL FORCES IN SIERRA LEONE? -- According to a "reliable Army source," the US dispatched from Germany to Sierra Leone, a task force of green beret soldiers to help capture notorious rebel leader Foday Sankoh. The source said the American commandos blended in among 10,700 UN peacekeepers and helped pro-government forces locate Mr. Sankoh. The key break was developing an informant who said the Revolutionary United Front leader planned to return to his home to recover some stashed cash and diamonds. When he arrived, he was shot in the leg and captured. Also, a American patrol boat offshore presumed to have Navy SEAL commandos aboard left the area shortly after the capture. <http://www.washtimes.com/national/inring-2000526211824.htm> (Macartney)

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEES SAY INTELLIGENCE IS UNDER-FUNDED AND IN TROUBLE --
The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) faults the Clinton administration for under-funding the CIA and its sister spy agencies and says the administration's lack of commitment "is placing undue risks on its armed forces and its national security interests by not redressing the many crucial problems facing the Intelligence Community."
The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) homes in on under-funding and an array of serious management issues that have defied solution for decades, ordering up a blizzard of reports from the secretive agencies on everything from press leaks to hiring practices by intelligence community inspector generals.
Both committees saved their most breathless commentary for the perilous state of the National Security Agency, with the SSCI "increasingly troubled" by the NSA's inability to cope with new communications technologies and the HPSCI demanding "ruthlessly honest assessments" about which new signals intelligence (SIGINT) technologies the NSA can develop in-house and which it needs to buy from the private sector. <http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22957-2000May28.html> <http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2000_rpt/hr106-620.html> <http://intelligence.senate.gov/000504.htm> (Macartney)

US NAVY TO UPGRADE SUBMARINE FLEET FOR INTELLIGENCE MISSION
-- A recent JCS study finds that the projected high operating tempo in the contemporary world environment will require 68 rather than 50 submarines by 2015, with deployments for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions the most prevalent and important. Beginning with the FY 2002 budget, therefore, the Navy will put greater emphasis on submarine ISR capabilities. This means a shift away from a current investment focus on acoustic systems towards future ISR systems, including the use of unmanned undersea vehicles (UUV's) for improved intelligence gathering, and an increased use of digital technologies, antennas with greater sensitivity, and similar technical enhancements. (Jane's Def. Wkly, 31 May2000) (Jonkers)

FUTURE USMC ROBOT INTELLIGENCE AND SENSOR SYSTEMS -- These excerpts from an article in "Inside the Navy" (5/22), give a flavor of future intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) systems:
Two weeks ago the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory completed an "access denial war game."The war game gave the Marine Corps a chance to test the viability of a sensor-to-shooter concept that uses micro-sized ground robots, mini-UAVs, humans and other assets to gather and send targeting information on mobile targets like Scud missile launchers.
The war gamers also simulated Marines infusing several ground robots and other unmanned vehicles into the enemy's territory to keep casualties down during the assault. These include "Rattler" and "Mini-Rattler" robots that have cameras for daytime use and a forward-looking infrared system for night use to perform surveillance and reconnaissance missions in areas too dangerous for troops. The Rattler is smaller than the Marine Corps' current SARGE ground robot but just as powerful, while the even smaller Mini-Rattler is about the size of a shoebox yet still can be guided around a battlefield and gather information for troops at a remote location. The robots are under development at the Sandia National Labs, and would likely be produced by an Orlando, FL, company if the service orders them in production quantities. The new robots will be placed on the battlefield by delta-wing gliders, or powered parafoils with wings that melt in (" Inside the Navy" 5/22) (Macartney)

SECTION III - BOOKS

THE CULTURAL COLD WAR: The CIA and the World of Arts and Letters, by Frances Stonor Saunders, New Press, 2000. The book deals with CIA's covert funding of cultural magazines and conferences, mostly in the 1950s. It is not an unbiased view of history -- rather, the author betrays her loathing for the intelligence community's attempt to wage a cultural offensive against the Soviet Union throughout the book. Michael Dirda, who reviewed the book in the Washington Post, states that Saunders writes from a position of "savage indignation," and the book should be regarded as a "historical diatribe." At the heart of the study lies the Congress for Cultural Freedom and its sponsor, Julius Fleischman's Fairfield Foundation, which presumably laundered CIA's funding. Did the participants know? Michael Dirda opines that "Given that the people involved were mainly intellectuals or academics, one can grant them an ingrained naiveté and presume that most of them probably never thought hard about who was paying for the spiffy parties, the first-class air fares, the caviar and champagne. Weren't they the smart guys, after all, and deserving the best?" Not having read the book, I will further quote Michael Dirda's bottomline: " Welcome to the world as it really is......Machiavelli reminded us that we live in a fallen world ..... only the young and unduly hopeful believe otherwise. So do I like the book? Yes, in many ways: It's filled with testimony, facts and figures; makes clear the sinuous interlocking nature of American governmental, corporate and cultural life; and is consistently fascinating. " Unquote. (M. Dirda in Wpost /BookWorld 2 April 2000, p.15) (Jonkers)

SECTION IV - MISCELLANEOUS

EBBN #6 Master Schedule Correction: The NMIA Potomac Chapter Luncheon is scheduled for Tuesday 13 June, not on the 15th as announced in EBBN#6.
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