Weekly Intelligence Notes #30-00
28 July 2000

WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN) #30-00 dtd 28 July 2000

Have you checked our Website at < www.afio.com > lately? Lots of new "stuff" -- courtesy of Elizabeth Bancroft.

Warning Notice: Perishability of Links:  WINs, sent weekly to members, often contain numerous webpage links to fast-breaking news, documents or other items of interest; unfortunately, after four weeks many of these websites [especially newspaper and other media sites] remove items or shift them into fee-only archives.  This underscores the benefit of receiving the WINs as they are released.

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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

US MARINE CORPS APPOINTS GENERAL OFFICER AS NEW DIRECTOR OF INTELLIGENCE -- BGen (sel) Michael E. Ennis was installed as the new Director of Marine Corps Intelligence (USMC DirInt) on July 17th., 2000, emphasizing the importance of intelligence. For the past twelve years the HQMC Intelligence Director's position has been assumed as an additional duty by the general officer also heading the Command, Control, Communications and Computers (C-4) Staff.
The Commandant of the Marine Corps, General J. L. JONES, announced the appointment in a message saying "In the future, intelligence will remain the indispensable precursor to operations. Recognizing this, we have been enhancing MAGTF intelligence capabilities for several years . .. . To sustain this progress, I have directed the establishment of an intelligence department (Code I) at HQMC and will assign a general officer to serve as the Director, Intelligence.... I hope all Marines will recognize both the emblematic and practical significance of the Commandant having a "G-2" who can serve as both a proponent for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance inside the combat development process and as the focal point for leveraging intelligence community support for our warfighting capability."
The newly appointed BGEN (select) Ennis attended the University of Paris (Sorbonne) as a student and earned a Master's degree in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. French and Russian are his foreign languages. During his career he has served, among other assignments, as a translator on the Washington-Moscow hotline, as the Assistant Naval Attaché in Moscow, as the US Military Representative in Azerbaijan, and as Commander of the Joint Military Intelligence Center Pacific (JICPAC) in Pearl Harbor. Mr. Michael Decker (SES4) will remain as the Assistant Director of Marine Corps Intelligence at HQS USMC.
(< http://www.usmc.mil/almars/almar2000.nsf/ByNumber?OpenPage >)
(courtesy M. Decker) (Jonkers)

GAO SAYS US INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY MAY EXAGGERATE "WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION" THREAT -- A GAO Congressional investigator said Wednesday that U.S. intelligence may give policymakers an exaggerated view of the threat from a terrorist biological, chemical or nuclear attack because the hurdles to obtaining and using such weapons are not discussed. Terrorists would have to overcome "significant technical and operational challenges" to successfully make and release chemical or biological agents to harm large numbers of people without substantial assistance from a foreign government. This opinion is but a single voice for balanced judgments in the flood of hype, whereby intelligence is often pressed for "worst case" scenarios that are then presented as the mainstream justification for one project or another in the Washington political or budget justification wars.
(< http://www.abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20000726_3567.html >)
(Jonkers/ Macartney)

NEW SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY OVERWHELM NIMA -- The Senate Intelligence committee wants the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) to devote a greater proportion of its resources to satellite imagery exploitation - requiring the Agency to take it "out of hide" - and included a directive provision to that end in the Senate's 2001 Intelligence Authorization Act. Secretary of Defense William Cohen and Army Gen. Henry Shelton, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, objected. They claim NIMA cannot afford to spend more of its budget on imagery exploitation (analysis) without impacting adversely on other NIMA missions.
Comment: The Senate provision probably relates to a DoD proposal for a new constellation of imagery satellites that is expected to increase the flood of imagery manifold. Congress charged that the new satellite system was being planned without including a provision for proper funding for equipment and analysts to exploit the increased flow of new imagery. This is not an unusual strategy in budgeting for new systems, but in this case Congress threatened that if funding was not found for proper exploitation and analysis of the imagery "harvest" they would not fund the new satellites. All part of the big money, big systems, big Washington poker-game hardball budget wars. (Defense News This Week: 31 July 2000) (Jonkers/Macartney)

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

TALEBAN DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVES -- Afghanistan's ruling Taleban government became uncharacteristically conciliatory over the last week. It promised on July 26 to hand over Pakistani nationals wanted by Pakistan. The same day, the Afghan ambassador to Pakistan gave a guarantee to a Chinese delegation that no groups would be allowed to operate against China from Afghanistan.
Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran and the US all have stakes in Afghanistan, including it's sponsorship, training and "export" of "homeless" and other radical Islamic terrorists; in the ongoing war of the Taleban with the "Northern Alliance; " and in the exercise of regional influence.
China is concerned about Taleban support for Islamic militants in the western province of Xinjiang. Pakistan, the Taleban's major sponsor, wants a stable border and economic transit routes. The same goes for Iran, which supports some factions of the Northern Alliance. Russia is agitated over the fact that radical Taleban elements are training Chechen Islamic extremist rebels --- and therefore has threatened airstrikes on Afghanistan. The US is in a similar position as the Russians, having already done the airstrike scenario.
The Taleban diplomatic initiative appears to encourage the Chinese government to work with Pakistan and Iran to bring about a negotiated settlement to the internal war. Unless the terrorist issue is addressed as part of the package, however, the Taleban will continue to have to deal with active direct and indirect US and Russian political action, intelligence surveillance, covert action and potentially, military force. (analysis based on, but not identical with, information from <Stratfor Global Intelligence Update - 28 July 2000 < http://www.stratfor.com/ >) (provided courtesy Tom Hart) (Jonkers)

RUSSIA DROPS PRETENSE OVER WALLENBERG --
Russia has stopped saying that Swedish wartime diplomat Raoul Wallenberg, long feared murdered in prison, died a natural death while in Soviet hands, a Swedish diplomat said on Tuesday. Wallenberg is credited with taking great personal risks to save some 100,000 Hungarian Jews from German death camps during World War Two. But his fate has remained a mystery since he was taken to Soviet headquarters when the Red Army occupied Hungary in 1945.
< http://www.cnn.com/2000/WORLD/europe/07/25/sweden.wallenberg.reut/index.html >
< http://www.russiatoday.com/news.php3?id=182387&section=default >

COVERT ACTION RESCUED HAITI POLITICIAN -- Leon Manus, president of Haiti's independent election commission, was marked for assassination because he had refused to validate election results that gave former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's party sweeping victories. The Clinton Administration spent two days debating the matter before ordering a clandestine rescue and extraction in June. (Macartney)
< http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/20000725/t000069601.html >

ISRAEL ASKED JONATHAN POLLARD RELEASE -- According to a Reuters dispatch from London, which quotes the London-based Arabic-language newspaper Al-Hayat, Israeli negotiators at Camp David reportedly demanded the release of two of their spies as part of any peace agreement with the Palestinians. The Israelis wanted the release of Jonathan J. Pollard and an Israeli citizen named Azzam Azzam, who is currently serving a 15 year sentence in an Egyptian prison for espionage. (Macartney)

WAS WEN-HO LEE'S WIFE A CIA INFORMANT? -- According to the San Jose Mercury News, Sylvia Lee, the wife of jailed Los Alamos scientist Wen Ho Lee, sometimes provided information to the the CIA on Chinese delegations that visited Los Alamos. Whatever the truth of this reporting, media reports have clouded this issue by saying she "worked for the CIA," implying she was a full time CIA employee.
Instead, this appears more like the routine work of the CIA's National Resources Division which elicits information from US citizens who have traveled abroad or otherwise might know something of use to the government. Cooperation is voluntary and seldom if ever involves exchange of money. Many thousands of people, few of whom think of themselves as "working for the CIA," have provided such information when asked.
< http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2000/07/23/national1855EDT0555.DTL >
< http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_sperry/20000703_xcspy_press_goes.shtml >
< http://www.fas.org/irp/ops/ci/selective_prosecution.html >

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

JUSTICE DEPARTMENT REVIEWING CARNIVORE -- Attorney General Janet Reno described Thursday a two-step process to review a new FBI Internet-wiretap system called Carnivore that has raised privacy concerns. With lawmakers and privacy advocates concerned the system allows for widespread surveillance of e-mails, Reno said the first step will be for a group of academic experts to conduct a detailed review of the computer program's source code.
< http://www.mercurycenter.com/svtech/news/breaking/merc/docs/055425.htm >
< http://www.msnbc.com/msn/438436.asp > (Levine Newbits 07/27/00) (Jonkers)

INTERNET VULNERABLE TO TERRORIST ATTACK
-- The Internet's reliance on a few key nodes makes it especially vulnerable to organized attacks by hackers and terrorists, according to a new study on the structure of the worldwide network. Like the airline hub system that falls apart when weather shuts down airports in Chicago or Dallas, the Internet could collapse if its major nodes were targeted in a malicious attack, the researchers said.
(Levine 07/27 < rlevine@ix.netcom.com >)
http://www.mercurycenter.com/svtech/news/breaking/ap/docs/245468l.htm

EC ADOPTS US SAFE HARBOR DATA PRIVACY PLAN
-- The European Commission today announced that it has formally settled on the so-called Safe Harbor data protection arrangement that allows US companies to engage in e-commerce data transfers with companies and individuals in the European Union (EU), despite European Parliament concerns about the effectiveness of the arrangement. The Safe Harbor will become effective in 90 days.
(Levine Newsbits 07/27)
< http://www.newsbytes.com/pubNews/00/152834.html >

CRYPTOME SITE UNDER SIEGE
-- A website that has displayed secret documents from U.S. and Japanese intelligence agencies apparently is under pressure from the FBI and possibly from DoS (denial-of-service) attacks. The publisher of cryptome.org, which houses a massive archive of files related to spy agencies, recently started publishing a series of classified CIA documents and personnel files related to Japan's Public Security Investigation Agency [PSIA]. In response the FBI this week visited online archivist John Young who maintains the massive web site http://cryptome.org/ . The agents said they were asking on behalf of the Japanese Ministry of Justice to take down what appears to be a personnel document of the PSIA. Young refused.
For the past week or two, Young has put up a number of documents relating to Japanese intelligence on his site. One of those documents, 10 slides marked "Secret," appears to be an overview briefing on the US Intelligence Community given by the CIA to a group of visiting Japanese intelligence officials in 1998.
The Cryptome site was down on Sunday, possibly due to outside interference (DoS attacks) . On the other hand, press references to the site may be generating more hits than the server can handle -- i.e., there is probably no "government action" involved. (Macartney/Levine/Jonkers)
< http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A28051-2000Jul22.html >
< http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,37718,00.html >
< http://cryptome.org/cia-ico.htm > < http://www.openpgp.net/censorship/psia/cia-ico.html >

PORNO SITE CUSTOMER LIST OPEN TO THE PUBLIC -- At the time of this writing, all customer orders of a U.S.-based electronic commerce site, with pornography as the best-selling item, were openly available online without any protection. The site lists information on more than 800 orders, all placed last year. More than 600 of these were paid by credit card. The numbers and expiration dates of the cards can be viewed by anyone. Order details also include the customers' names, mailing addresses, and the items ordered. (Levine's Newsbits)
(< http://www.pcworld.com/pcwtoday/article/0,1510,17811,00.html >)

SECTION IV - BOOKS AND OTHER SOURCES

HART-RUDMAN COMMISSION Reports -- The Phase I and Phase II Reports of the US Commission on National Security are on-line (PDF format) at the web site below. Phase I looks at future threats to national security and Phase II deals with national interests, goals and objectives. Phase III, which is due next spring, will deal with recommended force structures, budgets, etc. Since the Pentagon will be required to produce another QDR (Quadrennial Defense Review) next year, the Hart-Rudman report may be taken as starting place, or as an alternative.
The second URL listed below is a critique of the Hart-Rudman report by Dr Andrew Krepinevich, Director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. (Macartney)
< http://www.nssg.gov/Reports/reports.htm >
http://www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/Archive/B.20000419.Hart-Rudman_Commis/B.20000419.Hart-Rudman_Commis.htm

THE REAL J. EDGAR HOOVER: For The Record, by Ray Wannall, Turner Publishing Company, Paducah, Ky., 2000, Appendices, Notes & Sources, Index, 239 pages, ISBN 1-56311-553-0.
The former FBI director's life has been dissected numerous times. Honored by many, he was feared by some not only as the director of an American "secret police" force -- but as a force deeply involved in the hunt for Soviet spies -- thereby touching on the breeding ground for Soviet agents, the American communist party, and its numerous "fellow travelers" - ideological socialist and (some) liberal sympathizers. This was further complicated by embroilment in controversial civil rights matters, including FBI wiretaps on Martin Luther King (authorized by Robert Kennedy). In time it spawned a veritable Edgar Hoover vilification 'industry' that blossomed and became fashionable during the Kennedy administration, producing a flood of invective and derisive commentary [often fanned by Kennedy supporters] that over the years has probably built a wall of prejudice and a constituency impervious to reasoned argument or discussion.
Nevertheless, that is what this book attempts to do. Written by an FBI insider, a man who served in the Bureau for several decades under Hoover, and rose to the rank of an Assistant Director, Ray Wannall provides the view from the within -- and it is a different view indeed from the prevalent caricatures. It is a picture of a man brought in as part of the effort to clean up a corrupt Justice Department in 1924 , a man totally dedicated to a clean, effective and incorruptible FBI, who was involved in an enormous range of activities and relationships over half a century of service. Ray's highly readable, informative book touches on many of these, including chapters on COINTELPRO and on "Hoover and the Kennedy's."
How did this feisty, petty, egotistical, formidable, domineering man - as described by one of his lieutenants - manage to stay in office for nearly half a century? Was he a homosexual, crossdresser and blackmailer - as portrayed by his enemies? Distinguished AFIO member Ray Wannall served in the FBI for 33 years and knew everybody in the organization and where the skeletons were buried. In addition he has done his research and does not hesitate to point out some of the warts. Read his book and judge for yourself. Highly recommended reading. (Jonkers)

SECTION V - SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

AFIO AUTHORS -- AFIO Members who have written a book during the past few years, please send me an email with your name, book title, publisher, date of publication, and ISBN.
Please include a three-line abstract of the topic.
NOTE: All AFIO authors will be recognized on our Website, and will be eligible for a special book award to be made at the 25th Anniversary Awards Banquet. Please overlook the fact that a number of you are known to me as authors - and let me have the information once more. Thanks! Roy Jonkers

JOHN MILLIS CHILDREN's EDUCATION FUND - Dr. John Millis was a strong supporter of the Intelligence Community and of AFIO. His death was a tragedy. A contribution to this Education Fund established by the HPSCI staff honors a good man, a good friend and a patriot.
You may contribute in either of two ways: (1) DIRECTLY, by sending a "non-tax-deductible" contribution check made out to "Millis Children Educational Support Fund," including this account number on the check: "account #131 688"," and mailing it to: The Wright Patman Congressional Credit Union, PO Box 2408, Merrifield, VA 22116-2408.
(2) INDIRECTLY, THROUGH the INTELLIGENCE SCHOLARSHIP FOUNDATION (ISF), which will make a contribution the Millis Children's Fund. AFIO members may make a "tax-deductible" contribution to the ISF for inclusion in the ISF donation. Make the check out to ISF and make a notation "Millis Childrens Fund" on the check, and send it to: AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533. The ISF is 501(c)(3) tax-exempt educational organization (Jonkers/Absher)

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For comments, contact the editor Roy Jonkers at < afio@afio.com >.
For email address changes, contact Mrs Gretchen Campbell at < afionational@cs.com >.

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