Weekly Intelligence Notes #33-00
18 August 2000

WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN) #33-00 dtd 18 August 2000

WINs are produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers.
Don Harvey and John Macartney contribute articles to the WINs.

Warning Notice: Perishability of Links:  WINs, sent weekly to members, often contain numerous webpage links to fast-breaking news, documents or other items of interest; unfortunately, after four weeks many of these websites [especially newspaper and other media sites] remove items or shift them into fee-only archives.  This underscores the benefit of receiving the WINs as they are released.

DON'T FORGET TO REGISTER FOR THE AFIO SYMPOSIUM AND CONVENTION!
Check
www.afio.com

HAVE YOU SPONSORED A NEW MEMBER YET?

SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

PLATFORM ENDORSES INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY -- Buried in one press story about the Republican Convention, the following "rousing" endorsement of the intelligence community is quoted in its entirety: "A Republican administration working with the Congress will respect the needs and quiet sacrifices of these public servants as it strengthens America's intelligence and counter-intelligence capabilities and reorients them toward the dangers of the future."
The chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI), Porter Goss, was interviewed for the story, and he stated he has briefed George W. Bush and his aides on national security on several occasions, describing in detail the nature of the threats to the United States, and the responsibility the nation now has as the world's remaining superpower. That final phrase of the quote about reorienting toward the future could be interpreted to mean the community is not now oriented to the future, but that surely was not the intent. (Gannett News Service 4 Aug '00) (Harvey)

INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY KEY APPOINTMENTS -- The new CIA Deputy Director for Intelligence is Winston P. Wiley, effective August 18th. He succeeds John E. McLaughlin, who was appointed CIA's Acting Deputy Director on June 29th. The new Assistant DDI will be Jami Miscik.

DCI ANSWERS CRITICS ON CHILE DOCUMENTS --
CIA Director George J. Tenet has fired back at critics inside and outside government who are angry that he has decided to withhold hundreds of documents relating to CIA covert operations in Chile. In a letter to several members of Congress, Tenet said he was withholding the information to protect US intelligence-gathering methods, based on an assessment from the CIA's Directorate of Operations. Withheld are several hundred documents related to covert activities -- such as operations supporting a Chilean military establishment intent on overthrowing Allende, who died in a 1973 coup staged by officers loyal to Gen. Augusto Pinochet. Tenet said he decided to withhold the later covert action documents "solely because . . . these materials present a pattern of activity that had the effect of revealing intelligence methods that have been employed worldwide. . . . I want to reemphasize that we are in no way trying to withhold information embarrassing to the United States government."
The DCI noted that the more than 700 other documents that the CIA will release "fully" meet President Clinton's directive for a broad release of information relating to human rights abuses and political violence in Chile from 1968 to 1991. "We have devoted several thousand hours over a nine-month period to this endeavor," Tenet wrote. "The review was thorough, intensive and dedicated to the release of as much relevant information as possible consistent with my statutory obligation to protect sources and methods."
Tenet said he has approved for release thousands of pages of records related to the activities of right-wing and paramilitary groups, "including information pertaining to the groups' kidnapping efforts, plans to mount economic sabotage and reports that suggest the groups' involvement in a number of assassination attempts." Those documents also include reports on the assassination of Chilean Ambassador Orlando Letelier and his American associate Ronni Moffitt by Chilean intelligence operatives on Washington's Embassy Row in 1976, and several hundred documents pertaining to the CIA's "major covert action undertaken in Chile in 1970" aimed at keeping socialist Salvador Allende from winning the presidential election and assuming power.
Tenet also wrote that he has agreed to allow the documents being withheld to be reviewed "one more time" by an interagency committee with CIA, State Department and National Security Council representation. This would "ensure that there is not some subset of these documents that may be released without doing harm to intelligence sources and methods."
The critics, of course, are unimpressed and continue their campaign.
(WashPost Aug 17 p.27 by Vernon Loeb) (courtesy LaClair) (Jonkers)

TENET VISITS MOSCOW -- The CIA Director visited Moscow last week Friday, according to a spokesman for Russia's FSB domestic security service. This appears to be part of a trip that has covered several countries formerly behind the Iron Curtain.
According to Interfax, George Tenet's visit had been arranged long before a Russian nuclear submarine sank last Saturday, trapping 118 sailors, and it was unknown whether he would discuss this tragedy with his Russian counterparts. The United States may have information about the cause of the Kursk disaster. U.S. intelligence officials have said they monitored two explosions aboard the Kursk before it sank.
Interfax said Tenet most likely met with Russia's foreign intelligence chief Sergei Lebedev to discuss issues of concern to both countries, such as terrorism, organized crime, drug trafficking and weapons proliferation. (Moscow: Reuters/Interfax/ Fri, 18 Aug 2000;
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/000818/1/aggb1.html (Jonkers)

JAPAN PLANS NEW RECONNAISSANCE CAPABILITIES --
Citing concerns about increased piracy in the seas of Southeast Asia, Japan's Coast Guard plans to request funds for two long-range reconnaissance jets capable of making a 7,500-mile round-trip flight from Japan to the Strait of Malacca and back.
This new mission would provide Tokyo with an important new intelligence capabilities. Anti-piracy missions launched from Japan would likely hug the Chinese, Taiwanese and Vietnamese coasts and provide current imagery and other types of intelligence.
Such surveillance would be consistent with the slow but steady redefinition of Japan's security policies. The government recently announced that it will operate forces far from home to come to the aid of its citizens abroad. Spending on special operations forces has been increased. Japanese naval forces will participate in patrols of the Straits of Malacca. Earlier this year, the Japanese parliament announced a formal review of the nation's pacifist constitution. The current long-range airborne recce plan fits the pattern.
Greater airborne surveillance would help solve another problem for the Japanese - their reliance on intelligence from the United States. When North Korea launched a missile in 1998, the Japanese government did not receive timely intelligence from the United States. The ultimate solution for Japan will be the development of its own constellation of reconnaissance satellites and other sensors, expected during the next ten years. (Asahi, Japan/Stratfor 15Au00// courtesy Hart/Griffith/Doherty) (Jonkers)

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

PREDATOR / GLOBAL HAWK / U-2 RECONNAISSANCE SYSTEMS --
In contrast to the early days of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), recent reporting indicates successful performance and optimistic prospects for the future --and continuing effective service for the work-horse U-2s. While at least nine UAV programs were eventually canceled ($4 billion later), the current performer, Predator went from concept to operational status in 30 months, has a range of 500 nm, ceiling of 25,000 ft, loiter time of 24 hr, and has proven itself in various stressful situations, including Kosovo.
The latest UAV is the Global Hawk, a high-altitude, long-endurance bird. Flown 58 times with 710 flight hours, it has flown from Edwards AFB, California to Alaska and returned, and from Eglin AFB, Florida to Portugal, collecting imagery and returning. It has reached altitudes of 66,000 ft, flown 1,200 nm, collected data over a target area for 24 hours and returned. It will provide operational forces with near-real-time imagery of an area roughly equivalent to the state of Illinois. In its so-called spot mode, it can produce images within two square kilometers at one-meter resolution. As part of its demonstrations, the UAV has operated successfully with Navy battle groups at sea and with the Coast Guard. If the UAV is in position to shoot a picture, operators can have a finished image in hand 12 to 15 minutes from the time the location was shot.
While the UAVs look to be prime reconnaissance platforms in the future, the venerable U-2 is being improved, with the 9th Recon Wing at Beale AFB, Calif. receiving its first two upgraded versions of the U-2 this past spring. Some $139 million has been requested for 2001 for further U-2 improvements looking to keep the U-2 in the Air Force reconnaissance picture into the next decade. The recent improvements give the bird more power to expand the performance of its existing sensors and will allow it to use new equipment still in development. It also is getting a new communications system that will allow it to broadcast its surveillance results to two ground stations instead of one. Improvements in reduction of its vulnerability to radar detection have been begun as well. New radar and electro-optical sensors are being installed also. In the meantime, the U-2s continue to fly operational missions from bases in South Korea, Europe, Saudi Arabia and the US.(Aviation Week 7 Aug '00, p. 74; Defense News 19 Jun '00, p. 24; Defense News 26 Jun '00, p. 66) (Harvey)

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

DARPA's 'EMERALD' PROVES WORTH IN CYBERWORLD - -EMERALD is a gem in the world of cyberdefense. This EMERALD is not a green jewel, but the 'Event Monitoring Enabling Responses to Anomalous Live Disturbances.' Developed by SRI International and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), EMERALD's ability to detect computer hackers and other intruders surpasses current technology, said Michael Skroch, program manager of the DARPA information assurance program.
The new technology is needed. "We're seeing an increase in the number of attacks and the severity of attacks in the cyberdomain," Skroch said. The recent "I Love You" virus and the denial of service [DoS] attacks are just two examples of the threats facing Defense Department and computer users worldwide. (Levine's Newsbits 08/14) (Jonkers)
http://www.af.mil/news/Aug2000/n20000814_001219.html

FEDS SHAPE CYBERWARNING STRATEGY -- The National Security Council has developed a plan outlining roles and responsibilities for federal cybersecurity organizations. Under the plan sent out to those organizations and federal agencies late last month, the National Infrastructure Protection Center, working with the General Services Administration's Federal Computer Incident Response Capability office, will take the lead in alerting agencies to cyberattacks and will coordinate any immediate response.
http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2000/0814/news-tritak-08-14-00.asp
(Levine 08/14) (Jonkers)

EU - US CYBER RELATIONS -- The EU's European Commission Friday said it would allow the formation of a joint venture between EU and US banks to create an standardized electronic signatures authentication service, while at the same time said it would not change licensing and status rules for Internet telephony companies. The EC said it "plans to clear" the way for the establishment of Identrus, a bank certification network for financial and e-commerce transactions. The network would offer a standard for B2B transactions between banks. (Levine08/15) (Jonkers)
http://www.newsbytes.com/pubNews/00/153614.html

INFOSEC EDUCATION REQUIREMENTS -- A report to be published this year by one of the nation's top educators in information systems and security warns that the current system of higher education cannot support the demand for information assurance professionals and calls for a revolutionary change in the way the government, academia and industry cooperate.
"The present national need for an immediate increase in the development of information assurance professionals at all levels cannot be met within the existing educational structure," said professor Corey Schou, chairman of the National Colloquium on Information Systems Security Education and associate dean of Information Systems at Idaho State University. (Levine 08/14) (Jonkers)
http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2000/0814/web-work-08-14-00.asp

INTERNET SECURITY FATALLY FLAWED -- A stark warning from a world expert on internet security is threatening to have a devastating effect on online banking and e-commerce. Bruce Schneier, a cryptographer and chief technology officer at consultancy Counterpane Internet Security, says that there are fatal flaws in the way systems operate. And he believes that security breaches such as the recent Barclays bank blunder, where customers could see other accounts, are just the tip of the iceberg.
(Levine 08/15) http://www.thisismoney.co.uk (Jonkers)

US EASES COMPUTER EXPORT RULES -- Export controls on computers that are used largely in business but can have military applications have been relaxed somewhat. New rules were judged necessary as other countries were producing higher levels of computer capabilities. The change will allow US computer makers to export high-performance computers, whose power is measured in millions of theoretical operations per second (MTOPS) without having to obtain permission of the Commerce Department. Exports to Tier One countries, like our European allies, Australia, New Zealand and Japan, are virtually unrestricted. Exports to Tier Two countries in South America, Africa and Asia is set at a limit of 45,000 MTOPS versus the current level of 33,000 MTOPS. For Tier Three countries, including China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Israel, a level of 28,500 MTOPS vice the previous 12,500 MTOPS will be permitted. Under current law, the new rules will go into effect in 6 months. (Wtimes, 4Aug00, p.B11//Dougherty) (Jonkers)

SECTION IV - BOOKS

TRUST BUT VERIFY: Imagery Analysis in the Cold War
, by David T. Lindgren, Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, Md, Sep 2000. ISBN 1-55750-518-7. This forthcoming book by Professor David Lindgren of Dartmouth College documents the role of reconnaissance imagery collection and analysis in the Cold War and shows how imagery-derived information influenced US policy. He traces the growth of imagery systems stimulated by the need to assess the Soviet Union's military capabilities, and argues that the eventual development of sophisticated recon systems and imagery led to more accurate assessments that helped stabilize the relations between the two adversaries. A good book that makes an important contribution -- supporting AFIO's mission and message. (Jonkers)

BROADCASTING FREEDOM: The Cold War Triumph of Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty, by Arch Puddington, University Press of Kentucky. The author describes Radio Free Europe as "arguably the most influential politically oriented international radio station in history," a sweeping statement that immediately raises warning signs. Was RFE really more influential in the fifties than the BBC was during WWII - or even in the fifties, when, as Puddington notes, they were, the 'preference' of the 'educated classes' in Hungary? Doubtful.
By far the most interesting part of the book is its desciption of its role during the final days of the Soviet Union. Puddington argues that Boris Yeltsin remained "a formidable political figure" in part because of Radio Liberty. By the time of the attempted coup in August 1991, RL had more than one hundred 'stringers' throughout the Soviet Union, and two of its reporters remained at Yeltsin's side in the Russian White House during the crisis. And it was over Radio Liberty that Yeltsin made his call for a general strike on the coup's first day. Both Gorbachev and Yeltsin voiced their appreciation for RL's role. (Rev. by C. Kaiser, Wpost Bk World, Aug6, p. 6) (Jonkers)

SECTION V - SPECIAL NOTES

AFIO SYMPOSIUM / CONVENTION NEWS
-- We have a super Symposium and Convention program - come, enjoy, support, participate and celebrate AFIO's 25th anniversary! Bring a guest. See our Website for details at www.afio.com or check your snailmail.
____________________________________________________________
The underlying source material may be copyrighted and all rights are
retained by the original author/publisher. The information is provided to members for non-profit educational purposes. For back issues with some weeks delay, or AFIO Membership and Symposium information, see the expanded AFIO Website < www.afio.com >.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++end++++++++++++++++++++++

For comments, contact the editor Roy Jonkers at  afio@afio.com 
For email address changes, contact Gretchen Campbell at  afio@afio.com 
For back issues of the WIN, check the AFIO Website  www.afio.com 
For AFIO Website requests/comments, contact  afio@afio.com   

Back to Top

About AFIO | Chapters & Chapter Activities | Membership | Corporate | Weekly Intelligence Notes | Event Schedule | Bulletin Board | Book Reviews | Search | AFIO Store | Academic Exchange | Other Intel Sites | Home Page

AFIO Central Office
6723 Whittier Avenue, Suite 303A
McLean, Virginia 22101-4533
Telephone: 703 790 0320 | Facsimile: 703 991 1278
Email: afio@afio.com