WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN)
#33-00 dtd 18 August 2000
WINs are produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers.
Don Harvey and John Macartney contribute articles to the WINs.
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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
PLATFORM ENDORSES INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY -- Buried in one
press story about the Republican Convention, the following "rousing"
endorsement of the intelligence community is quoted in its entirety: "A
Republican administration working with the Congress will respect the needs and
quiet sacrifices of these public servants as it strengthens America's
intelligence and counter-intelligence capabilities and reorients them toward
the dangers of the future."
The chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI),
Porter Goss, was interviewed for the story, and he stated he has briefed
George W. Bush and his aides on national security on several occasions,
describing in detail the nature of the threats to the United States, and the
responsibility the nation now has as the world's remaining superpower. That
final phrase of the quote about reorienting toward the future could be
interpreted to mean the community is not now oriented to the future, but that
surely was not the intent. (Gannett News Service 4 Aug '00) (Harvey)
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY KEY APPOINTMENTS -- The new CIA Deputy Director
for Intelligence is Winston P. Wiley, effective August 18th. He succeeds John
E. McLaughlin, who was appointed CIA's Acting Deputy Director on June 29th.
The new Assistant DDI will be Jami Miscik.
DCI ANSWERS CRITICS ON CHILE DOCUMENTS -- CIA Director George J. Tenet has
fired back at critics inside and outside government who are angry that he has
decided to withhold hundreds of documents relating to CIA covert operations in
Chile. In a letter to several members of Congress, Tenet said he was
withholding the information to protect US intelligence-gathering methods,
based on an assessment from the CIA's Directorate of Operations. Withheld are
several hundred documents related to covert activities -- such as operations
supporting a Chilean military establishment intent on overthrowing Allende,
who died in a 1973 coup staged by officers loyal to Gen. Augusto Pinochet.
Tenet said he decided to withhold the later covert action documents
"solely because . . . these materials present a pattern of activity that
had the effect of revealing intelligence methods that have been employed
worldwide. . . . I want to reemphasize that we are in no way trying to
withhold information embarrassing to the United States government."
The DCI noted that the more than 700 other documents that the CIA will release
"fully" meet President Clinton's directive for a broad release of
information relating to human rights abuses and political violence in Chile
from 1968 to 1991. "We have devoted several thousand hours over a
nine-month period to this endeavor," Tenet wrote. "The review was
thorough, intensive and dedicated to the release of as much relevant
information as possible consistent with my statutory obligation to protect
sources and methods."
Tenet said he has approved for release thousands of pages of records related
to the activities of right-wing and paramilitary groups, "including
information pertaining to the groups' kidnapping efforts, plans to mount
economic sabotage and reports that suggest the groups' involvement in a number
of assassination attempts." Those documents also include reports on the
assassination of Chilean Ambassador Orlando Letelier and his American
associate Ronni Moffitt by Chilean intelligence operatives on Washington's
Embassy Row in 1976, and several hundred documents pertaining to the CIA's
"major covert action undertaken in Chile in 1970" aimed at keeping
socialist Salvador Allende from winning the presidential election and assuming
Tenet also wrote that he has agreed to allow the documents being withheld to
be reviewed "one more time" by an interagency committee with CIA,
State Department and National Security Council representation. This would
"ensure that there is not some subset of these documents that may be
released without doing harm to intelligence sources and methods."
The critics, of course, are unimpressed and continue their campaign.
(WashPost Aug 17 p.27 by Vernon Loeb) (courtesy LaClair) (Jonkers)
TENET VISITS MOSCOW -- The CIA Director visited Moscow last week
Friday, according to a spokesman for Russia's FSB domestic security service.
This appears to be part of a trip that has covered several countries formerly
behind the Iron Curtain.
According to Interfax, George Tenet's visit had been arranged long before a
Russian nuclear submarine sank last Saturday, trapping 118 sailors, and it was
unknown whether he would discuss this tragedy with his Russian counterparts.
The United States may have information about the cause of the Kursk disaster.
U.S. intelligence officials have said they monitored two explosions aboard the
Kursk before it sank.
Interfax said Tenet most likely met with Russia's foreign intelligence chief
Sergei Lebedev to discuss issues of concern to both countries, such as
terrorism, organized crime, drug trafficking and weapons proliferation.
(Moscow: Reuters/Interfax/ Fri, 18 Aug 2000;
JAPAN PLANS NEW RECONNAISSANCE CAPABILITIES -- Citing concerns about
increased piracy in the seas of Southeast Asia, Japan's Coast Guard plans to
request funds for two long-range reconnaissance jets capable of making a
7,500-mile round-trip flight from Japan to the Strait of Malacca and back.
This new mission would provide Tokyo with an important new intelligence
capabilities. Anti-piracy missions launched from Japan would likely hug the
Chinese, Taiwanese and Vietnamese coasts and provide current imagery and other
types of intelligence.
Such surveillance would be consistent with the slow but steady redefinition of
Japan's security policies. The government recently announced that it will
operate forces far from home to come to the aid of its citizens abroad.
Spending on special operations forces has been increased. Japanese naval
forces will participate in patrols of the Straits of Malacca. Earlier this
year, the Japanese parliament announced a formal review of the nation's
pacifist constitution. The current long-range airborne recce plan fits the
Greater airborne surveillance would help solve another problem for the
Japanese - their reliance on intelligence from the United States. When North
Korea launched a missile in 1998, the Japanese government did not receive
timely intelligence from the United States. The ultimate solution for Japan
will be the development of its own constellation of reconnaissance satellites
and other sensors, expected during the next ten years. (Asahi, Japan/Stratfor
15Au00// courtesy Hart/Griffith/Doherty) (Jonkers)
SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE
PREDATOR / GLOBAL HAWK / U-2 RECONNAISSANCE SYSTEMS -- In contrast to the
early days of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), recent reporting indicates
successful performance and optimistic prospects for the future --and
continuing effective service for the work-horse U-2s. While at least nine UAV
programs were eventually canceled ($4 billion later), the current performer,
Predator went from concept to operational status in 30 months, has a range of
500 nm, ceiling of 25,000 ft, loiter time of 24 hr, and has proven itself in
various stressful situations, including Kosovo.
The latest UAV is the Global Hawk, a high-altitude, long-endurance bird. Flown
58 times with 710 flight hours, it has flown from Edwards AFB, California to
Alaska and returned, and from Eglin AFB, Florida to Portugal, collecting
imagery and returning. It has reached altitudes of 66,000 ft, flown 1,200 nm,
collected data over a target area for 24 hours and returned. It will provide
operational forces with near-real-time imagery of an area roughly equivalent
to the state of Illinois. In its so-called spot mode, it can produce images
within two square kilometers at one-meter resolution. As part of its
demonstrations, the UAV has operated successfully with Navy battle groups at
sea and with the Coast Guard. If the UAV is in position to shoot a picture,
operators can have a finished image in hand 12 to 15 minutes from the time the
location was shot.
While the UAVs look to be prime reconnaissance platforms in the future, the
venerable U-2 is being improved, with the 9th Recon Wing at Beale AFB, Calif.
receiving its first two upgraded versions of the U-2 this past spring. Some
$139 million has been requested for 2001 for further U-2 improvements looking
to keep the U-2 in the Air Force reconnaissance picture into the next decade.
The recent improvements give the bird more power to expand the performance of
its existing sensors and will allow it to use new equipment still in
development. It also is getting a new communications system that will allow it
to broadcast its surveillance results to two ground stations instead of one.
Improvements in reduction of its vulnerability to radar detection have been
begun as well. New radar and electro-optical sensors are being installed also.
In the meantime, the U-2s continue to fly operational missions from bases in
South Korea, Europe, Saudi Arabia and the US.(Aviation Week 7 Aug '00, p. 74;
Defense News 19 Jun '00, p. 24; Defense News 26 Jun '00, p. 66) (Harvey)
SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE
DARPA's 'EMERALD' PROVES WORTH IN CYBERWORLD - -EMERALD is a gem in the
world of cyberdefense. This EMERALD is not a green jewel, but the 'Event
Monitoring Enabling Responses to Anomalous Live Disturbances.' Developed by
SRI International and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA),
EMERALD's ability to detect computer hackers and other intruders surpasses
current technology, said Michael Skroch, program manager of the DARPA
information assurance program.
The new technology is needed. "We're seeing an increase in the number of
attacks and the severity of attacks in the cyberdomain," Skroch said. The
recent "I Love You" virus and the denial of service [DoS] attacks
are just two examples of the threats facing Defense Department and computer
users worldwide. (Levine's Newsbits 08/14) (Jonkers)
FEDS SHAPE CYBERWARNING STRATEGY -- The National Security Council has
developed a plan outlining roles and responsibilities for federal
cybersecurity organizations. Under the plan sent out to those organizations
and federal agencies late last month, the National Infrastructure Protection
Center, working with the General Services Administration's Federal Computer
Incident Response Capability office, will take the lead in alerting agencies
to cyberattacks and will coordinate any immediate response.
(Levine 08/14) (Jonkers)
EU - US CYBER RELATIONS -- The EU's European Commission Friday said it
would allow the formation of a joint venture between EU and US banks to create
an standardized electronic signatures authentication service, while at the
same time said it would not change licensing and status rules for Internet
telephony companies. The EC said it "plans to clear" the way for the
establishment of Identrus, a bank certification network for financial and
e-commerce transactions. The network would offer a standard for B2B
transactions between banks. (Levine08/15) (Jonkers)
INFOSEC EDUCATION REQUIREMENTS -- A report to be published this year by
one of the nation's top educators in information systems and security warns
that the current system of higher education cannot support the demand for
information assurance professionals and calls for a revolutionary change in
the way the government, academia and industry cooperate.
"The present national need for an immediate increase in the development
of information assurance professionals at all levels cannot be met within the
existing educational structure," said professor Corey Schou, chairman of
the National Colloquium on Information Systems Security Education and
associate dean of Information Systems at Idaho State University. (Levine 08/14)
INTERNET SECURITY FATALLY FLAWED -- A stark warning from a world expert
on internet security is threatening to have a devastating effect on online
banking and e-commerce. Bruce Schneier, a cryptographer and chief technology
officer at consultancy Counterpane Internet Security, says that there are
fatal flaws in the way systems operate. And he believes that security breaches
such as the recent Barclays bank blunder, where customers could see other
accounts, are just the tip of the iceberg.
US EASES COMPUTER EXPORT RULES -- Export controls on computers that are
used largely in business but can have military applications have been relaxed
somewhat. New rules were judged necessary as other countries were producing
higher levels of computer capabilities. The change will allow US computer
makers to export high-performance computers, whose power is measured in
millions of theoretical operations per second (MTOPS) without having to obtain
permission of the Commerce Department. Exports to Tier One countries, like our
European allies, Australia, New Zealand and Japan, are virtually unrestricted.
Exports to Tier Two countries in South America, Africa and Asia is set at a
limit of 45,000 MTOPS versus the current level of 33,000 MTOPS. For Tier Three
countries, including China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Israel, a level of
28,500 MTOPS vice the previous 12,500 MTOPS will be permitted. Under current
law, the new rules will go into effect in 6 months. (Wtimes, 4Aug00,
SECTION IV - BOOKS
TRUST BUT VERIFY: Imagery Analysis in the Cold War, by David T. Lindgren,
Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, Md, Sep 2000. ISBN 1-55750-518-7. This
forthcoming book by Professor David Lindgren of Dartmouth College documents
the role of reconnaissance imagery collection and analysis in the Cold War and
shows how imagery-derived information influenced US policy. He traces the
growth of imagery systems stimulated by the need to assess the Soviet Union's
military capabilities, and argues that the eventual development of
sophisticated recon systems and imagery led to more accurate assessments that
helped stabilize the relations between the two adversaries. A good book that
makes an important contribution -- supporting AFIO's mission and message. (Jonkers)
BROADCASTING FREEDOM: The Cold War Triumph of Radio Free Europe and Radio
Liberty, by Arch Puddington, University Press of Kentucky. The author
describes Radio Free Europe as "arguably the most influential politically
oriented international radio station in history," a sweeping statement
that immediately raises warning signs. Was RFE really more influential in the
fifties than the BBC was during WWII - or even in the fifties, when, as
Puddington notes, they were, the 'preference' of the 'educated classes' in
By far the most interesting part of the book is its desciption of its role
during the final days of the Soviet Union. Puddington argues that Boris
Yeltsin remained "a formidable political figure" in part because of
Radio Liberty. By the time of the attempted coup in August 1991, RL had more
than one hundred 'stringers' throughout the Soviet Union, and two of its
reporters remained at Yeltsin's side in the Russian White House during the
crisis. And it was over Radio Liberty that Yeltsin made his call for a general
strike on the coup's first day. Both Gorbachev and Yeltsin voiced their
appreciation for RL's role. (Rev. by C. Kaiser, Wpost Bk World, Aug6, p. 6) (Jonkers)
SECTION V - SPECIAL NOTES
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