WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN) #40-00
dtd 6 October 2000
WINs are intelligence commentaries written, edited and
produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers to assist in AFIO's
educational mission. Opinions are those of the Editor and the associate
editors listed. Principal sources on which the commentaries are based, are
cited in each item.
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HAVE YOU SPONSORED A NEW MEMBER YET?
SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
SENATE AUTHORIZATION BILL -- The fiscal 2001 Intelligence Authorization
Act was passed last week by the Senate. It contained sections that were
clearly inspired by the Wen Ho Lee investigation, the John Deutch affair, and
the security problems at the State Department. The bill orders the Attorney
General to personally review high-level requests for secret wiretaps and
search warrants . This was a reaction to Attorney General Reno's delegation of
an FBI wiretap request relating to Wen Ho Lee to a subordinate. There is also
a provision permitting judges to consider a suspect's "past
activities" in determining wiretap permission - reacting to a Department
of Justice judgment that some of Lee's activities were too far in the past to
be relevant. Lastly, the Act requires the FBI director to communicate in
writing to departments and agencies whose employees are under active
With reference to Deutch, the Senate bill requires CIA to inform the House and
Senate intelligence committees about all investigations by the CIA Inspector
General into the activities of top officials, current or former, acting or
confirmed. This relates to the 18 months in which Deutch's investigation
resided in limbo.
As to the State Department, the bill prohibits State's Bureau of Intelligence
and Research (INR) from storing sensitive compartmented information (SCI)
unless the DCI certifies that INR is in compliance with all intelligence
community security directives.
The most controversial provision may be that the bill makes LEAKING any type
of classified information a felony punishable by up to three years in prison.
This provision causes the press to fear prosecutions. The subsequent
Senate/House conference committee report still included this last provision,
raising an immediate alarm from the Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee,
Henry Hyde, protesting that he was bypassed, and that Hearings will be
necessary. It is unlikely that this provision, desirable as it may be, will be
enacted, given the ruckus that will be raised by leakers and their press
beneficiaries. (Wpost 10 Oct 2000, p.A23 // V. Loeb // < http://www.fas.org/sgp/news/2000/10/hyde.html
> courtesy T. Hart) (Jonkers)
JOHN DEUTCH INVESTIGATION -- The Pentagon's investigation of computer
security violations committed by John Deutch has stalled because Deutch is
declining to answer questions about his actions. In particular, a Pentagon
press briefer stated yesterday, "It's our understanding that ... material
was indeed transcribed onto floppy disks, but we do not have those floppy
disks; those have not been recovered. It would be a question we would need to
ask of Dr. Deutch -- Do you still have them? Where are they? What did you do
with them? -- Questions of that sort. But he has declined, through counsel, to
answer questions on that, so far, at least. And that's where we are."
There is no need to dwell on similarities between this case and another one
where cooperation led to incarceration. Dr Deutch is well-acquainted with the
system and advised by counsel.
> courtesy T. Hart) (Jonkers)
SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE
RUSSIAN MILITARY POSTURE & THREAT -- Although Soviet power was
virtually destroyed, the Russian successor state still controls a great number
of nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles that must continue to be a US
national security concern of a high order of magnitude, both in terms of
numbers and in relation to potential domestic Russian instability.
During the past year the new Russian President, Vladimir V. Putin consolidated
his political and military control, preventing, for the time being at least, a
further fragmentation of the state. In May 2000 he created seven new federal
districts corresponding closely to the seven existing military districts. He
appointed seven Presidential representatives (five of whom retired generals)
to these federal districts. These acts provide Putin with centralized top-down
control throughout the 89 regions making up the Russian Federation.
In April 2000 the Russian Security Council, chaired by the President, approved
a new military doctrine providing for the use of nuclear weapons not only in
response to a nuclear attack, but also in case of a large-scale conventional
attack against Russia or its allies. The doctrine also highlighted terrorism
(e.g. Islamic fundamentalism in Chechnya and Central Asia) as a military
In August 2000 the Security Council decided to cut the number of Russia's
nuclear warheads unilaterally and drastically from the current 5,300 to 1,500,
and to transfer the budget savings to strengthen the conventional forces. They
further projected an eventual shift of the Russian missile command to the Air
Force, and a shift of investment priorities to build up their decrepit
Russian conventional forces were successful in Chechnya, but without a final
victory. The conflict, involving about 80,000 Russian troops, showed the poor
condition of these forces in terms of both training and equipment. Most
Russian army equipment is obsolete by NATO standards. The deplorable condition
of the Navy was demonstrated when Russia's newest and most modern attack
submarine sank on August 12th. Russian Air Force pilots are also lacking in
training -- they get less than 24 hours a year of flying time a year -- except
for those flying combat missions in Chechnya.
Total Russian military forces have declined from over 5 million men in 1989 to
1 million men today, including all services. Nuclear warheads (on missiles and
for bombers) declined from over 10,000 to about 5,000 today, with further
reductions planned to the 1,500 level. Total number of bombers and missiles in
1999 amounted to a nominal 1,138 -- not considering (lack of) operational
readiness. This included 756 ICBMs, 74 long-range bombers (including
prop-driven ones), 308 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (from 21
submarines, most of them not operational), all categories reduced by more than
50% since 1989.
The former Soviet tiger has been reduced to a Russian pussycat, nowhere near
as dangerous unless pushed into a corner without escape - - when it still
potentially could expire in a spasm of deadly destruction. Instability within
Russia, and the concomitant potential leakage of nuclear weapons knowledge and
capabilities to other states, remain the current principal concerns for US
policy and security. One would conjecture, however, that Russia's decade-long
internal financial and social disintegration, coupled with individual
citizens' deprivation and all-pervasive corruption, have provided
opportunities for efficient and effective US overt and clandestine
intelligence collection and operations in Russia to meet many or most of our
national security objectives and concerns. In other words, in the local
vernacular, we should be well into their knickers by now, and should sleep
more soundly because of that. (Tamar Mehuron with Harriet and William Scott)
Russian Military Almanac, AF Magazine October 2000) (Jonkers)
ENIGMA STOLEN FROM BLETCHLEY PARK MUSEUM -- A captured German encoding
machine that helped the British to crack the Nazi Enigma code in one of the
turning points of World War II has been missing from its case in a
Buckinghamshire museum for six months, and getting it back has turned into
something of a riddle itself. It was stolen in the spring from a glass display
cabinet in the museum, in the Bletchley Park estate that was the clandestine
wartime office of the remarkable team of crossword puzzle experts, linguists,
chess masters, mathematicians and refugee intellectuals the British assembled
to read encrypted enemy communications.
Code-cracking capabilities were based initially on code-breaking information
on Enigma provided by Polish intelligence. The capture of Enigma technology by
the Royal Navy from a disabled Nazi submarine in May 1941 further assisted the
Bletchley Park codebreakers.
The existence of the Bletchley Park 10,000-member spy unit, known as Station
X, was never disclosed during the war, prompting Churchill to call the members
"the geese that laid the golden eggs and never cackled."Their
accomplishment has been credited for Allied successes in destroying much of
the Italian Navy, mounting a defense against U-boat attacks on Allied convoys
and decimating the supply shipments for Rommel's North African campaign. The
code breakers believed that the work at Bletchley Park shortened the war by
two years, and General Eisenhower gave them credit for saving thousands of
The only details of the April 1 ENIGMA machine theft that the police will
disclose are that at least four people were involved and that they seemed to
have inside knowledge of both Bletchley Park and the Enigma machine. Last
month, an awkwardly composed ransom letter arrived, asking for 25,000
($36,000) and threatening to destroy the machine unless the money was paid.
The museum has raised the entire sum from an anonymous benefactor and publicly
says it is prepared to meet the terms to get the device back.
This caper is, in effect, the second time this year that the British have been
robbed of cherished evidence of their wartime Enigma exploit.
The thriller movie "U-571" was based on the capture of the Nazi
cipher device, but the filmmakers stripped the captors of their British
identities. The naval heroes in the Hollywood version are Americans. But then,
the British in turn do not often mention the trailblazing work done by Polish
intelligence - the Poles broke the Enigma code in 1933. (NYTimes, Warren Hoge,
Oct 9, 2000 < http://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/09/world/09BRIT.html
POLAND SEEKS RECOGNITION FOR ENIGMA WORK -- Britain may complain that
Hollywood is belittling its role in fighting Nazi Germany but Poland says the
Western powers have ignored the role its people played in defeating Hitler's
forces in World War II. Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek this month gave posthumous
decorations to three Polish mathematicians who first broke Germany's
super-secret Enigma code in 1933, long before the more famous British signals
breakers got to work. He described the deciphering of Enigma in 1933 Poland's
greatest contribution to the Allied victory in the Second World War, and
demanded a stop to persistent falsehoods surrounding Enigma code-breaking,
"often spread by official sources." Buzek spoke at a ceremony where
he presented the families of Marian Rejewski, Jerzy Rozycki and Henryk
Zygalski with high-ranking state decorations.
Rejewski, using military intelligence supplied by a French agent within the
German defense ministry, was able to construct an Enigma machine in 1933 and
the Poles used it to monitor signal traffic throughout the 1930s. In 1938 the
German High Command ordered a change in the workings of the machine, a sign to
the Poles that war was near. The Polish team broke the code again and handed
two Enigma machines over to surprised British intelligence agents in 1939
before the German invasion of Poland that started World War II. The Polish
gift boosted the work of Britain's Ultra decoding program.
(Reuters, Warsaw, Bob Strybel, Jul 29 & 30, 2000) (courtesy Dr. C..
Kiracofe < email@example.com
SECTION III - BOOKS & LETTERS
BOWLING ALONE: The Collapse and Revival of American Community by Robert
D. Putnam, Simon & Schuster; ISBN 0684832836 (June 2000) -- The greatest
threats facing the United States today are not military, but societal and
environmental. As in ancient Rome, our "legions" still stand firm
and remain dedicated and effective. It is internal rot that threatens to
corrode our societal core and it is a threat we must understand and address to
the extent possible.
As rational participants, we need to understand the components of the
phenomenon. One of these (among a number of others, including chipping away
Constitutional guarantees of free speech, seizure of property, etc. as well as
obvious threats to liberty by growing "thought police" measures and
well-advertised special interest bribery and corruption in the political
arena), is the disintegration of our communities. Americans are no longer
involving themselves in civic and community life.
Few people outside certain scholarly circles had heard the name Robert D.
Putnam before 1995. But then this self-described "obscure academic"
hit a nerve with a journal article called "Bowling Alone." Suddenly
he found himself invited to Camp David, his picture in People magazine, and
his thesis at the center of a raging debate. In a nutshell, he argued that
civil society was breaking down as Americans became more disconnected from
their families, neighbors, communities, and the republic itself. The
organizations that gave life to democracy were fraying. Bowling became his
Years ago, he wrote, thousands of people belonged to bowling leagues. Today,
however, they're more likely to bowl alone: Television, two-career families,
suburban sprawl, generational changes in values -- these and other changes in
American society have meant that fewer and fewer of us find that the League of
Women Voters, or the United Way, or the Shriners, or the monthly bridge club,
or even a Sunday picnic with friends fits the way we have come to live. Our
growing social-capital deficit threatens educational performance, safe
neighborhoods, equitable tax collection, democratic responsiveness, everyday
honesty, and even our health and happiness.
Putnam takes a stab at suggesting how things might change, but the book's real
strength is in its diagnosis rather than its proposed solutions. For the
thinking reader, a worthwhile study.
(Based on review by John J. Miller [Amazon.com reviewer], and in The Industry
Standard at http://www.thestandard.com/
SECTION IV - NOTICES
AFIO CONVENTION 2000 -- The AFIO Symposium and Convention 2000, as well
as the 25th Anniversary Awards Banquet, were a success. AFIO thanks all
participants, and appreciates their support to the Association and its
This is the third year for the newly introduced format of a Symposium to run
alongside the modified AFIO Convention, and the third Banquet with the new
awards program. All three years the event has been successful in terms of
attendee satisfaction, support to AFIO's viability, and achievement of AFIO
Our most sincere thanks and great appreciation go to our distinguished list of
speakers, headed by the Host, Lieutenant General Michael Hayden, Director NSA,
and his staff. Without exception the speakers were informative and interesting
on both days, and the facilities and support were outstanding.
Lastly, we thank the AFIO team members who worked together to make this event
yet another success, including Don McDowell,
Julia Wetzel, Ted
Bancroft, and Gretchen Campbell,
and Emerson Cooper -- all were
terrific. President Gene Poteat
did a great job presiding over the events. The Chairman, Lt Gen (ret) Linc
Faurer, was influential in the background with NSA and chaired
a reception at the NSA Museum. The Executive
Director was part of the team as orchestrator and coordinator
of the events.
We look forward to another winning team effort next year. We invite
suggestions by attendees as we do our "lessons learned," and plan
for further enhancements < firstname.lastname@example.org
JIM BOGINIS - We have been notified that Jim Boginis' long ordeal is
close to an end, leaving us with only the memory of yet another valued
colleague, friend and AFIO member. We will let you know about the memorial
services as soon as details come available. (Jonkers)
SECTION V - ODDS AND ENDS
BEYOND INTELLIGENCE: During the Japanese attack on Hong Kong British
officers objected to Canadian infantrymen taking up positions in the officer's
mess. "No enlisted men allowed" you know.
(< Ellis@EllisMarples.com >)
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