Weekly Intelligence Notes #40-00
6 October 2000

WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN) #40-00
dtd 6 October 2000

WINs are intelligence commentaries written, edited and produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers to assist in AFIO's educational mission. Opinions are those of the Editor and the associate editors listed. Principal sources on which the commentaries are based, are cited in each item.

Warning Notice: Perishability of Links:  WINs, sent weekly to members, often contain numerous webpage links to fast-breaking news, documents or other items of interest; unfortunately, after four weeks many of these websites [especially newspaper and other media sites] remove items or shift them into fee-only archives.  This underscores the benefit of receiving the WINs as they are released.

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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE


SENATE AUTHORIZATION BILL -- The fiscal 2001 Intelligence Authorization Act was passed last week by the Senate. It contained sections that were clearly inspired by the Wen Ho Lee investigation, the John Deutch affair, and the security problems at the State Department. The bill orders the Attorney General to personally review high-level requests for secret wiretaps and search warrants . This was a reaction to Attorney General Reno's delegation of an FBI wiretap request relating to Wen Ho Lee to a subordinate. There is also a provision permitting judges to consider a suspect's "past activities" in determining wiretap permission - reacting to a Department of Justice judgment that some of Lee's activities were too far in the past to be relevant. Lastly, the Act requires the FBI director to communicate in writing to departments and agencies whose employees are under active counterintelligence investigation.
With reference to Deutch, the Senate bill requires CIA to inform the House and Senate intelligence committees about all investigations by the CIA Inspector General into the activities of top officials, current or former, acting or confirmed. This relates to the 18 months in which Deutch's investigation resided in limbo.
As to the State Department, the bill prohibits State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) from storing sensitive compartmented information (SCI) unless the DCI certifies that INR is in compliance with all intelligence community security directives.
The most controversial provision may be that the bill makes LEAKING any type of classified information a felony punishable by up to three years in prison. This provision causes the press to fear prosecutions. The subsequent Senate/House conference committee report still included this last provision, raising an immediate alarm from the Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Henry Hyde, protesting that he was bypassed, and that Hearings will be necessary. It is unlikely that this provision, desirable as it may be, will be enacted, given the ruckus that will be raised by leakers and their press beneficiaries. (Wpost 10 Oct 2000, p.A23 // V. Loeb // < http://www.fas.org/sgp/news/2000/10/hyde.html > courtesy T. Hart) (Jonkers)

JOHN DEUTCH INVESTIGATION -- The Pentagon's investigation of computer security violations committed by John Deutch has stalled because Deutch is declining to answer questions about his actions. In particular, a Pentagon press briefer stated yesterday, "It's our understanding that ... material was indeed transcribed onto floppy disks, but we do not have those floppy disks; those have not been recovered. It would be a question we would need to ask of Dr. Deutch -- Do you still have them? Where are they? What did you do with them? -- Questions of that sort. But he has declined, through counsel, to answer questions on that, so far, at least. And that's where we are." There is no need to dwell on similarities between this case and another one where cooperation led to incarceration. Dr Deutch is well-acquainted with the system and advised by counsel.
(< http://www.fas.org/sgp/news/2000/10/dod101000.html > courtesy T. Hart) (Jonkers)

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

RUSSIAN MILITARY POSTURE & THREAT
-- Although Soviet power was virtually destroyed, the Russian successor state still controls a great number of nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles that must continue to be a US national security concern of a high order of magnitude, both in terms of numbers and in relation to potential domestic Russian instability.
During the past year the new Russian President, Vladimir V. Putin consolidated his political and military control, preventing, for the time being at least, a further fragmentation of the state. In May 2000 he created seven new federal districts corresponding closely to the seven existing military districts. He appointed seven Presidential representatives (five of whom retired generals) to these federal districts. These acts provide Putin with centralized top-down control throughout the 89 regions making up the Russian Federation.
In April 2000 the Russian Security Council, chaired by the President, approved a new military doctrine providing for the use of nuclear weapons not only in response to a nuclear attack, but also in case of a large-scale conventional attack against Russia or its allies. The doctrine also highlighted terrorism (e.g. Islamic fundamentalism in Chechnya and Central Asia) as a military threat.
In August 2000 the Security Council decided to cut the number of Russia's nuclear warheads unilaterally and drastically from the current 5,300 to 1,500, and to transfer the budget savings to strengthen the conventional forces. They further projected an eventual shift of the Russian missile command to the Air Force, and a shift of investment priorities to build up their decrepit conventional forces.
Russian conventional forces were successful in Chechnya, but without a final victory. The conflict, involving about 80,000 Russian troops, showed the poor condition of these forces in terms of both training and equipment. Most Russian army equipment is obsolete by NATO standards. The deplorable condition of the Navy was demonstrated when Russia's newest and most modern attack submarine sank on August 12th. Russian Air Force pilots are also lacking in training -- they get less than 24 hours a year of flying time a year -- except for those flying combat missions in Chechnya.
Total Russian military forces have declined from over 5 million men in 1989 to 1 million men today, including all services. Nuclear warheads (on missiles and for bombers) declined from over 10,000 to about 5,000 today, with further reductions planned to the 1,500 level. Total number of bombers and missiles in 1999 amounted to a nominal 1,138 -- not considering (lack of) operational readiness. This included 756 ICBMs, 74 long-range bombers (including prop-driven ones), 308 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (from 21 submarines, most of them not operational), all categories reduced by more than 50% since 1989.

The former Soviet tiger has been reduced to a Russian pussycat, nowhere near as dangerous unless pushed into a corner without escape - - when it still potentially could expire in a spasm of deadly destruction. Instability within Russia, and the concomitant potential leakage of nuclear weapons knowledge and capabilities to other states, remain the current principal concerns for US policy and security. One would conjecture, however, that Russia's decade-long internal financial and social disintegration, coupled with individual citizens' deprivation and all-pervasive corruption, have provided opportunities for efficient and effective US overt and clandestine intelligence collection and operations in Russia to meet many or most of our national security objectives and concerns. In other words, in the local vernacular, we should be well into their knickers by now, and should sleep more soundly because of that. (Tamar Mehuron with Harriet and William Scott) Russian Military Almanac, AF Magazine October 2000) (Jonkers)

ENIGMA STOLEN FROM BLETCHLEY PARK MUSEUM -- A captured German encoding machine that helped the British to crack the Nazi Enigma code in one of the turning points of World War II has been missing from its case in a Buckinghamshire museum for six months, and getting it back has turned into something of a riddle itself. It was stolen in the spring from a glass display cabinet in the museum, in the Bletchley Park estate that was the clandestine wartime office of the remarkable team of crossword puzzle experts, linguists, chess masters, mathematicians and refugee intellectuals the British assembled to read encrypted enemy communications.
Code-cracking capabilities were based initially on code-breaking information on Enigma provided by Polish intelligence. The capture of Enigma technology by the Royal Navy from a disabled Nazi submarine in May 1941 further assisted the Bletchley Park codebreakers.
The existence of the Bletchley Park 10,000-member spy unit, known as Station X, was never disclosed during the war, prompting Churchill to call the members "the geese that laid the golden eggs and never cackled."Their accomplishment has been credited for Allied successes in destroying much of the Italian Navy, mounting a defense against U-boat attacks on Allied convoys and decimating the supply shipments for Rommel's North African campaign. The code breakers believed that the work at Bletchley Park shortened the war by two years, and General Eisenhower gave them credit for saving thousands of lives.
The only details of the April 1 ENIGMA machine theft that the police will disclose are that at least four people were involved and that they seemed to have inside knowledge of both Bletchley Park and the Enigma machine. Last month, an awkwardly composed ransom letter arrived, asking for 25,000 ($36,000) and threatening to destroy the machine unless the money was paid. The museum has raised the entire sum from an anonymous benefactor and publicly says it is prepared to meet the terms to get the device back.
This caper is, in effect, the second time this year that the British have been robbed of cherished evidence of their wartime Enigma exploit.
The thriller movie "U-571" was based on the capture of the Nazi cipher device, but the filmmakers stripped the captors of their British identities. The naval heroes in the Hollywood version are Americans. But then, the British in turn do not often mention the trailblazing work done by Polish intelligence - the Poles broke the Enigma code in 1933. (NYTimes, Warren Hoge, Oct 9, 2000 < http://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/09/world/09BRIT.html > (Jonkers)

POLAND SEEKS RECOGNITION FOR ENIGMA WORK -- Britain may complain that Hollywood is belittling its role in fighting Nazi Germany but Poland says the Western powers have ignored the role its people played in defeating Hitler's forces in World War II. Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek this month gave posthumous decorations to three Polish mathematicians who first broke Germany's super-secret Enigma code in 1933, long before the more famous British signals breakers got to work. He described the deciphering of Enigma in 1933 Poland's greatest contribution to the Allied victory in the Second World War, and demanded a stop to persistent falsehoods surrounding Enigma code-breaking, "often spread by official sources." Buzek spoke at a ceremony where he presented the families of Marian Rejewski, Jerzy Rozycki and Henryk Zygalski with high-ranking state decorations.
Rejewski, using military intelligence supplied by a French agent within the German defense ministry, was able to construct an Enigma machine in 1933 and the Poles used it to monitor signal traffic throughout the 1930s. In 1938 the German High Command ordered a change in the workings of the machine, a sign to the Poles that war was near. The Polish team broke the code again and handed two Enigma machines over to surprised British intelligence agents in 1939 before the German invasion of Poland that started World War II. The Polish gift boosted the work of Britain's Ultra decoding program.
(Reuters, Warsaw, Bob Strybel, Jul 29 & 30, 2000) (courtesy Dr. C.. Kiracofe < cliffkir@mindspring.com >) (Jonkers)

SECTION III - BOOKS & LETTERS

BOWLING ALONE: The Collapse and Revival of American Community by Robert D. Putnam, Simon & Schuster; ISBN 0684832836 (June 2000) -- The greatest threats facing the United States today are not military, but societal and environmental. As in ancient Rome, our "legions" still stand firm and remain dedicated and effective. It is internal rot that threatens to corrode our societal core and it is a threat we must understand and address to the extent possible.
As rational participants, we need to understand the components of the phenomenon. One of these (among a number of others, including chipping away Constitutional guarantees of free speech, seizure of property, etc. as well as obvious threats to liberty by growing "thought police" measures and well-advertised special interest bribery and corruption in the political arena), is the disintegration of our communities. Americans are no longer involving themselves in civic and community life.
Few people outside certain scholarly circles had heard the name Robert D. Putnam before 1995. But then this self-described "obscure academic" hit a nerve with a journal article called "Bowling Alone." Suddenly he found himself invited to Camp David, his picture in People magazine, and his thesis at the center of a raging debate. In a nutshell, he argued that civil society was breaking down as Americans became more disconnected from their families, neighbors, communities, and the republic itself. The organizations that gave life to democracy were fraying. Bowling became his driving metaphor.
Years ago, he wrote, thousands of people belonged to bowling leagues. Today, however, they're more likely to bowl alone: Television, two-career families, suburban sprawl, generational changes in values -- these and other changes in American society have meant that fewer and fewer of us find that the League of Women Voters, or the United Way, or the Shriners, or the monthly bridge club, or even a Sunday picnic with friends fits the way we have come to live. Our growing social-capital deficit threatens educational performance, safe neighborhoods, equitable tax collection, democratic responsiveness, everyday honesty, and even our health and happiness.
Putnam takes a stab at suggesting how things might change, but the book's real strength is in its diagnosis rather than its proposed solutions. For the thinking reader, a worthwhile study.
(Based on review by John J. Miller [Amazon.com reviewer], and in The Industry Standard at http://www.thestandard.com/ ) (Jonkers)

SECTION IV - NOTICES

AFIO CONVENTION 2000 -- The AFIO Symposium and Convention 2000, as well as the 25th Anniversary Awards Banquet, were a success. AFIO thanks all participants, and appreciates their support to the Association and its objectives.
This is the third year for the newly introduced format of a Symposium to run alongside the modified AFIO Convention, and the third Banquet with the new awards program. All three years the event has been successful in terms of attendee satisfaction, support to AFIO's viability, and achievement of AFIO objectives.
Our most sincere thanks and great appreciation go to our distinguished list of speakers, headed by the Host, Lieutenant General Michael Hayden, Director NSA, and his staff. Without exception the speakers were informative and interesting on both days, and the facilities and support were outstanding.
Lastly, we thank the AFIO team members who worked together to make this event yet another success, including Don McDowell, Julia Wetzel, Ted Shackley, Peter Earnest, Elizabeth Bancroft, and Gretchen Campbell, Bob Heibel, and Emerson Cooper -- all were terrific. President Gene Poteat did a great job presiding over the events. The Chairman, Lt Gen (ret) Linc Faurer, was influential in the background with NSA and chaired a reception at the NSA Museum. The Executive Director was part of the team as orchestrator and coordinator of the events.
We look forward to another winning team effort next year. We invite suggestions by attendees as we do our "lessons learned," and plan for further enhancements < afio@afio.com >.

JIM BOGINIS - We have been notified that Jim Boginis' long ordeal is close to an end, leaving us with only the memory of yet another valued colleague, friend and AFIO member. We will let you know about the memorial services as soon as details come available. (Jonkers)

SECTION V - ODDS AND ENDS

BEYOND INTELLIGENCE: During the Japanese attack on Hong Kong British officers objected to Canadian infantrymen taking up positions in the officer's mess. "No enlisted men allowed" you know.
(< Ellis@EllisMarples.com >)

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WIN information is provided for non-profit research and educational purposes. The underlying source material may be copyrighted and all rights are retained by the original author/ publisher.
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