Weekly Intelligence Notes #44-00
3 November 2000

WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN) #44-00
dtd 3 November 2000

WINs contain intelligence items of interest and commentaries selected, edited and produced by Roy Jonkers. WINs are intended to assist AFIO members in pursuing AFIO's educational mission.
Associate Editors John Macartney and Don Harvey contributed articles to this WIN. Opinions are those of the editor or associate editors listed.
===================================================

HAVE YOU CONSIDERED A TAX-DEDUCTIBLE DONATION TO AFIO YET???


=============================================
SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

PRESIDENT VETOES INTELLIGENCE LEAKS PROVISION IN BILL
-- The FY 2001 Intelligence Authorization Bill contained an 'anti-leak' provision would have made it a felony (punishable by a fine and up to three years in prison) for an active or retired government official or employee to willfully disclose classified information to unauthorized persons. The measure would have made it easier to initiate an investigation of purported leaks, and would have relieved prosecutors of the need to prove in court that unauthorized disclosures had damaged national security.
The measure was supported by the CIA and the Department of Justice, and obviously also the Congressional intelligence committees. It addressed an urgent Washington problem often deplored by key officials, including the DCI. It was opposed by an unusual last-minute coalition of some White House, Congressional, media and civil liberty special interests. In his veto message, the President noted that he did not dispute "the gravity of the problem, but the best way to respond to it." He called on Congress to hold public hearings and to present a more narrowly drawn provision.
CIA spokesman Bill Harlow said "Our intent all along has solely been to plug a gap in existing law which jeopardizes the security of the United States and compromises our ability to protect the American people." DCI George Tenet has frequently complained about the number and scope of leaks of classified data in Washington, and the damage this practice is doing to national security. One might say that since the notorious disclosure of the Pentagon Papers a few decades ago (so applauded by the media), the practice has become an institution in Washington. As noted in an earlier WIN, either the entire classification system needs to be reexamined, or the enforcement system needs to be made whole -- and the vetoed provision was a step in the right direction. Let us hope for a follow-on.
Incidentally, authorization for new and continuing intelligence activities funding were not held up by the veto. The President signed a backup intelligence authorization provision that was passed as part of the FY2001 Defense Appropriations Bill. (WPost Nov5,2000, p.A5 // W. Pincus) (Jonkers)

CIA's CHINA ESTIMATES UNDER FIRE -- 
Columnists Gertz and Scarborough produced an ominous column -- calling up visions of future intelligence assessments produced and slanted to fit partisan political agenda's -- asserting that Republican national security officials are planning a major house-cleaning at CIA's China Analysis Division, including the removal of its longtime chief, Dennis Wilder, if President Bush is elected. Some Congressional Republicans, allegedly supported by some Chinese analysts inside and outside of government, were reported to believe that the CIA's Chinese analysts take too benign a view of China, and are planning to "fix" that.
The Senate Intelligence Committee failed earlier this month to pass tough provisions in this year's intelligence authorization bill to "fix CIA's China analysis problem." Legislation to mandate competitive analyses by outside critics was watered down by the Conference committee in the authorization bill, at the urging of CIA and with the help of Rep. Porter Goss, the House Intelligence Committee chairman. Instead of ordering the creation of a "Team B'' composed solely of China skeptics from outside the agency, the final bill, just vetoed by the President, simply requested CIA to conduct competitive analysis in a general way.
Outside experts, and 'competitive' analyses arguing from alternate premises, may well make a contribution, and are indeed currently utilized. But the outright call for conclusions different than that produced by an objective independent intelligence analysis constitutes a call for a debasement of the intelligence process. If the report on future Republican Administration measures is correct (and it is unlikely to reflect the position of a future President, for it would be truly counter-productive), it implies the potential of heavy-handed intrusion and politicization - and indeed corruption - of our intelligence process. Seen in context, of course, this report -- and after, it is only just a columnist report -- is one more reflection of partisan warfare in Washington and the sense of deep distrust of the current White House by many.
One must believe that the good of the nation is kept in sight by responsible leadership in the midst of all this political posturing and provocative reporting. The professional competence, excellence and integrity of intelligence continues to be vitally important to the nation. While constructive critique and prudent vigilance are always in order, neither the intelligence institutions nor the process should be made political footballs. The political leadership can always use intelligence as they see fit. (Gertz & Scarborough, Inside the Ring, WTimes 10/27)
< http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_gertzscar/20001027_xcgsc_uss_cole_p.shtml >) (Jonkers)

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

OVERHAUL OF ORGANIZATION AND CULTURE AT NSA  -- The most wide-sweeping cultural transformation and organizational reorientation at National Security Agency in many years was recently announced by NSA Director, Lt. Gen. Michael Hayden. While some of our readers might not find this a riveting item, the announcement covers the most profound change in NSA since WWII.
(NOTE: AFIO members who attended the recent AFIO symposium received the inside view of some of the Agency's problems and future directions.)
By way of background, when coming to the Agency in early 1999, General Hayden was charged by his Pentagon bosses, the DCI, and the Intelligence Committees of the Congress to re-do the Agency to make it more responsive to the requirements of the 21st Century and to the needs of its customer community. He commissioned two panels to study the situation -- one staffed with agency personnel and the other manned by private sector executives. If anything, the internal group's report was more critical than the external group. One quote from the internal panel captures the general tenor of the comments of the two studies: "NSA has been in a leadership crisis for the better part of a decade. It is lack of leadership that is responsible for both NSA's failure to create and implement a single corporate strategy, and for the complete breakdown of the NSA governance process. Lack of leadership is also at the heart of unfortunate organizational behaviors that have created a perception among customers and stakeholders that NSA places higher value on its tradecraft than it does on outcomes for the nation. As a result, NSA has lost credibility with its stakeholders and customers and has failed to begin the organizational transformation for success in the Information Age."
Those blunt words fostered the complete overhaul of NSA's leadership structure. The new "Executive Leadership Team" has fewer members than its predecessor and concentrates on corporate-wide, strategic issues rather than day-to-day operations. The current leadership team consists of General Hayden, Deputy Director Bill Black (a retiree recalled to active duty), and the agency's deputy directors for operations, information assurance and technology. A new office of the chief of staff, RAdm Joe Burns, has replaced the executive director and corporate management divisions. New "associate director" slots have been created to handle the agency's information technology, human resources, installation and logistics functions with a fourth associate director in charge of the agency's National Cryptologic School. General Hayden describes himself and the deputy as the CEO and the COO. Bill Black will be primarily responsible for "keeping the agency running" while the "CEO has the primary responsibility for keeping it relevant."
The agency now has a Chief Financial Manager, a Chief Information Officer, a Senior Acquisition Executive, a Transformation Office, and a division whose primary function is to assure the well-being of the highly stressed information technology infrastructure. These latter offices operate under the Chief of Staff. Widely known throughout the intelligence community as having an entrenched hierarchy dedicated to doing business largely the way the hierarchy desired -- regardless of the particular flag officer detailed to be the director -- the NSA now has a centralized management structure with much of the power concentrated directly under the director and his deputy.
Illustrative of the new management of the Agency and General Hayden's style of leadership, all of the changes in the organization were announced to the 285 top managers on a Saturday and to the entire work force the following week, and more pattern-breaking, the changes were briefed to the press in some detail soon afterward. The new chief financial manager was brought in from the outside financial management world. Some 2,000 employees are to be released (and assured of jobs with the new contractor) with basic computer operations to be performed by private industry. Emphasis for the future will be on retaining and attracting people with skills and motivation to help the agency transform itself to meet the new threats to national security while displaying the imagination and innovation to solve the challenges of the information technology world.
The remarkable thing is that Hayden seems to have most of the major players - DOD, DCI, NSA senior people, Congress, etc. - at least tacitly agreeing with his thrust. Let's hope it works; it will take a huge change like this to really make a difference at NSA. (Defense Information & Electronics Report 20 Oct '00 / R.Lardner; WashPost 17 Oct '00, p. 31 / V Loeb; Balt. Sun 17 Oct '00, p. 1 / L. Sullivan //)
(< http://www.nsa.gov/releases/nsa_external_team_report.pdf >)
(< http://www.nsa.gov/releases/nsa_new_enterprise_team_recommenda >) (Harvey)

RELATED NSA ITEMS

(1) Former NSA employees launch security business
(< http://www.redherring.com/vc/2000/1019/vc-spies101900.html >), and
(2) NSA is looking for new employees on-line.
(< http://www.nsa.gov/programs/employ/index.html > ( courtesy Jeremy Compton) (Macartney)

THE GLOBALIZATION OF THE FBI -- It used to be that the FBI did domestic law enforcement as well as conduct counterespionage investigations in this country, while the CIA operated overseas, doing both intelligence and counterintelligence. It's not so simple anymore. As drugs, terrorism, financial crime and other international criminals have gone global, so has the FBI. Increasingly, the FBI is becoming as much a foreign as well as a domestic law enforcement and counter- intelligence organization. It now has agents (Legal Attachs, or "Legats") abroad in 44 countries, and teams of CONUS-based FBI investigators frequently deploy abroad to investigate such matters as the attack on the USS Cole.
Louis Freeh, Director since 1993, came into office with a vision of making the Bureau global and he has done so. Freeh and other FBI officials draw a sharp distinction between their primary mission abroad -- gathering information and evidence to serve as a basis for prosecution -- and the role of the CIA, collecting and evaluating intelligence for decision makers. The agencies overlap in their counterintelligence missions and the pursuit of information about terrorism, however, and both act in diplomatic liaison capacities with foreign law enforcement and intelligence organizations. There appear to be many opportunities for competition, but the present environment is (thus far) described as one of productive FBI-CIA teamwork. (Wpost 28 Oct2000 // < http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35401-2000Oct28.html > ) (Macartney)

DOD COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE... closing the barn door after the horse is gone -- The Pentagon is hiring 450 additional counterintelligence specialists to protect defense secrets after learning that China obtained classified US missile technology, including critical information about the heat shield that keeps America's most advanced missiles from burning up as they reenter the atmosphere. While applauding the attempt to boost security, members of Congress said it was long overdue, coming more than five years after the Defense Department was told of the suspected Chinese espionage.
A trove of Chinese military documents, allegedly given to the CIA in 1995 by a former Chinese missile specialist (part of successful US espionage in China) showed that Beijing had gathered some classified data about US nuclear weapons, but a great deal more about America's ballistic missiles. The Energy Department reacted quickly to the apparent loss of nuclear secrets, launching a probe that focused on Los Alamos National Laboratory and scientist Wen Ho Lee after premature publicity made the affair into a political football. But the Defense Department has been slower to respond to what officials now say was the far more substantial evidence that China had obtained missile technology. Anyway, the result is positive -- Defense counterintelligence is getting a boost.
< http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6213-2000Oct24.html > (Macartney)

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

MIDEAST CYBER WARFARE -- A spearhead force of Israeli hackers, augmented by thousands of teenage keyboard warriors, launched an Internet assault on Hezbollah and other Arab world websites earlier this month as violence in the region spun out of control. This week the Arabs struck back with a fury, apparently led by pro-Palestinian cyber-soldiers in the United States. In a sustained, coordinated counterattack, websites of the Israeli army, Foreign Ministry, prime minister and parliament, among others, have been staggered by a barrage of hundreds of thousands -- possibly millions -- of hostile electronic signals. < http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A21154-2000Oct26.html > (Macartney)

AIPAC WEBSITE INVADED -- The website for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), a US lobbying group, was defaced Wednesday with anti-Israeli commentary -- an increasingly common occurrence as the escalating conflict between Israelis and Palestinians has spilled over into cyberspace. But this time the intruders also downloaded some 3,500 e-mail addresses and 700 credit card numbers from the site, sent anti-Israeli messages to the mailing list and published the credit-card data on the Internet. "This hack is to protest against the atrocities in Palestine by the barbarian Israeli soldiers and their constant support by the U.S. government,'' said a manifesto that the attackers put in place of the lobbying
group's home page.
(< http://www0.mercurycenter.com/svtech/news/breaking/merc/docs/081697.htm >) (rlevine Nov 3/00)

EXPERTS PREDICT MUTATING VIRUSES -- Havoc wrought by Internet-based computer viruses continues to worsen. Software vendors are predicting an even darker future in which self-mutating viruses become practically undetectable and almost unstoppable. These mutating menaces, known as polymorphic and metamorphic viruses, are not yet common. But virus hunters warn that a few of this year's virus crop - in particular the NewLove worm - are precursors of mutants that will be difficult to stop because they change shape to evade detection.
< http://www.nwfusion.com/news/2000/1030virus.html > (Levine's Newsbits 1 Nov 00 // < rlevine@ix.netcom.com >)

NSF INVITES CYBER SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM PROPOSALS -- The National Science Foundation has invited colleges to develop grant proposals for a new federal initiative to bring information security professionals into government. NSF released its solicitation last week for the Scholarship for Service (SFS) initiative, one of several security training and education projects under the Federal Cyber Service program. The main thrust of the SFS initiative is to provide scholarships to students pursuing information security degrees in return for a period of service in the federal government.
< http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2000/1030/web-nsf-11-01-00.asp >

CANADIAN COMPANY TO PROTECT WHITE HOUSE NETWORK -- A small Canadian software company, Kasten Chase Applied Research (KCA.TO), said on Wednesday that its anti-hacking computer products would protect
sensitive data in White House networks. Kasten Chase, which already has computer security contracts with the U.S. military and some government agencies, said the U.S. President's Executive Office would use its RASP Secure Access system. The system is designed to protect sensitive data that can be accessed by remote computers and to prevent unauthorized access to internal networks. Even if Canada is our close neighbor, it is interesting that White House security is entrusted abroad.
< http://www0.mercurycenter.com/svtech/news/breaking/reuters/docs/584459l.htm > (Levine/Jonkers)

SECTION IV - BOOKS & SOURCES

STRATEGIC DECEPTION BY BRITS DURING COLD WAR --
 English military planners worked out an elaborate strategy to counter the Soviet Union's Cold War power by feeding Moscow exaggerated accounts of British military strength, secret papers released on Friday revealed. (< http://www.intelbriefing.com/newswatch.htm > // Macartney)

CIA BALKANS ATLAS ONLINE.
Not just maps -- lots of info. < http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/balkan/regter.html > (courtesy Jeremy Compton) (Macartney)

CIA COVERT ACTIONS PART OF HISTORY -- CIA covert actions are included in the State Dept's official history of US foreign policy for the first time. The CIA's role in supporting the Thai government's election campaign in 1969 is acknowledged and documented in the new State Department volume, "Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964-1968, volume XXVII: Mainland Southeast Asia; Regional Affairs".
< http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/vol_xxvii/covert.html >  (Macartney)

THE CHINA THREAT: HOW THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC TARGETS AMERICA
, by Bill Gertz, Regnery Publishing, 1 November 2000, ISBN 0-89526-2819. Not yet reviewed. According to Reuters, the book includes extensive excerpts from a U.S. intelligence report titled "Foreign Collection Against the Department of Energy: The Threat to U.S. Weapons and Technology," which describes how various countries targeted U.S. nuclear secrets.

-- Japan targeted U.S. nuclear labs for information on sensitive technologies through the Japan External Trade Organization.
-- China's nuclear stockpile was deteriorating and so it targeted U.S. information related to nuclear weapons design, the report said. "This effort has been very successful, and Beijing's exploitation of U.S. national laboratories has substantially aided its nuclear weapons program."
-- Israel, France, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and Taiwan "...are known to intercept U.S. satellite communications, and, in many cases, have extensive capabilities to intercept other communications."
-- Russia mainly sought U.S. nuclear weapons secrets that involved state-of-the-art technologies.
-- France has a record of exploiting legitimate access to U.S. businesses and government institutions to collect information, and has commonly sought information beyond the parameters of joint agreements.
-- India has emerged as a dangerous intelligence threat and is said to have a well-developed and aggressive intelligence collection capability for U.S. secrets on advanced military and civilian technology.
-- Taiwan has "a substantial intelligence presence in the United States" and focuses its spying efforts on the United States and China.
-- South Korea has a "major intelligence presence" in the United States and expanded collection of nuclear technology secrets during the 1990s,
-- Iraq pursued information on U.S. technologies from other countries.
-- The activities of Israeli intelligence were not further specified in the report.

     The Gertz book is said, by advance publicity, to focus on how "China has infiltrated our government . . and even our military," how China is preparing to "fight a multi-front war," how it is damaging western industries and economies, and how China conducts diplomatic treachery -- in other words, a new "Evil Empire."
Bill Gertz is a well-known, controversial columnist, published regularly in the Washington Times and elsewhere, who has gained widespread recognition -- some say notoriety, some fame, depending on one's perspective and position -- for being the channel for publishing and providing commentary on classified information and reports "leaked" by government insiders. We must await reading the book before passing judgment on the merits of the China threat theme of the book. Mr. Gertz was invited to the AFIO luncheon at Fort Myer, VA, on 7 November to present his China thesis and his book. (Reuters 1 Nov 00 < http://www.insidechina.com/news.php3?id=215735&section=default >)  (Jonkers)

SECTION V - ODDS AND ENDS


WWII AIRWAR.

-- More US servicemen died in the Air Corps than the Marine Corps. While completing the required 30 missions your chance of being killed was 71%.
-- A number of air crewmen died of breaking wind (ascending to 20,000 ft. in an unpressurized aircraft causes intestinal gas to expand 300%).
-- German Me-264 bombers were capable of bombing New York City but it wasn't worth the effort.
-- The Russians destroyed over 500 German aircraft by ramming them in midair (they also sometimes cleared minefields by marching over them).    (E. Marples)

MIDEAST "THREATCON" -- The heightened readiness condition mentioned for US forces in the Middle East mentioned in WIN #43 should have been THREATCON DELTA, not DEFCON DELTA. The editor spent too much time in Washington. Thank you J. Weisman! (Jonkers)

USS LIBERTY CORRECTION
-- The Israeli attack on the USS Liberty took place in 1967, not 1947, as indicated in a recent WIN. Mea culpa. The attack on the USS Liberty remains controversial -- a bitter memory for the survivors in particular and the military in general, and for others as well, a devastating commentary on the (lack of) independence and guts of Washington politicians in Congress and the White House. The Vice President of the USS Liberty Veterans Association (LVA), Joe Meadors, posted the following on the Web --

"As most of you know, on June 8, 1967 the Israeli Defense Forces attacked the USS Liberty while it was steaming in international waters off the coast of the Sinai Peninsula. Since that attack over 33 years ago the US government has never conducted an investigation of the attack. They have also never held any official memorial service for those who were killed during the attack. We were reminded of those facts when the USS Stark was struck by an Iraqi missile and just recently when the USS Cole was damaged by suicide bombers. Both attacks resulted in memorial services with the President of the United States in attendance. Both attacks resulted in public investigations by committees of the United States Congress. Not so the attack on the USS Liberty. No memorial service. No public Congressional investigation. In order to correct the latter we have created an online petition for all to sign. Perhaps the first time in American history that a group of former U.S. Navy personnel have had to resort to such a tactic simply to convince the Congress of the United States that an attack that
includes such atrocities as the deliberate machine gunning of our life rafts in the water does, indeed, warrant public Congressional scrutiny. The petition is located at < http://www.ussliberty.com/petition/ >. 
Author James Ennes maintains the USS Liberty web site at:< http://www.ussliberty.org/jim/ussliberty >"


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WIN information is provided for non-profit research and educational purposes. 
Back issues of the WIN are stored on the AFIO Website <www.afio.com
with a two month delay.

HAVE YOU SPONSORED A NEW MEMBER YET??
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++end++++++++++++++++++++++++

For comments, contact the editor Roy Jonkers at  afio@afio.com 
For email address changes, contact Gretchen Campbell at  afionational@cs.com 
For back issues of the WIN, check the AFIO Website  www.afio.com 
For AFIO Website requests/comments, contact   afio@afio.com   

Back to Top

About AFIO | Chapters & Chapter Activities | Membership | Corporate | Weekly Intelligence Notes | Event Schedule | Bulletin Board | Book Reviews | Search | AFIO Store | Academic Exchange | Other Intel Sites | Home Page

AFIO Central Office
6723 Whittier Avenue, Suite 303A
McLean, Virginia 22101-4533
Telephone: 703 790 0320 | Facsimile: 703 991 1278
Email: afio@afio.com