Weekly Intelligence Notes #47-00
25 November 2000

WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN) #47-00
dtd 25 November 2000

WIN intelligence commentaries are selected, written and produced by Roy Jonkers. Associate Editors John Macartney and Don Harvey contributed articles to this WIN.

NOTE: This WIN was delayed by the Editor's computer transfer problems...a small downside of shifting to a new computer system (a much appreciated donation from AFIO member Capt Bob Wolfe). 
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SECTION I  --  CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

NRO Satellites Currently in Development
--  Follow-on to the Congressional NRO Report in WIN#46:  -- The recent 185-page report by a congressional commission on the National Reconnaissance Office concluded in general that the NRO needed direct presidential oversight, more funding, more freedom, and more secrecy.  The press has now noted that while calling for more secrecy, the commission included details of the NRO operations not known publicly before.  One appendix to the report revealed that the NRO has six different  satellites in development presently.  The first of the six began development about six years ago and is expected to be completed in 2001.  The last of the six -- which the press speculates could be the first of the so-called Future Imagery Architecture(FIA) satellites -- was started in 1998  and is expected to be operational in 2004.  One expert, not otherwise identified, said he knew of the first three initiatives but was surprised by the other three developments.  In another appendix, the first electro-optical imaging satellite of the NRO was identified as becoming operational  in 1977 -- there have been many references to space electro-optical capabilities, but this apparently is the first official acknowledgement of the development. (Wash Post 24 Nov '00 // Vernon Loeb) (Harvey)
EDITOR's NOTE: last  week's WIN coverage on the NRO elicited two Letters to the Editor that make useful contributions to knowledge by eminent insiders, both AFIO members. See SECTION V below.   

SCOTLAND YARD POLICE INTELLIGENCE ANALYST RECOGNIZED -- A young crime analyst was responsible for foiling the daring attempt last week to steal the $500 million De Beers diamonds from the London Millennium Dome,  The analyst, who works for SO 11, the Yard's Intelligence Branch, worked with detectives for five months after July, when he identified a possible link between an unsuccessful attempt by a gang to rob a  Securicor van in Aylesford, Kent, to a similar failed raid on a  Securicor van in Nine Elms, south-west London in February. An unnamed Scotland Yard official said: "The analyst identified a group of individuals he believed was likely to be involved in crime. He put together a pattern of criminal contacts. He had piles and piles of maps on the walls, with information including the fact that individuals had been seen together." The analyst's assessment prompted senior Yard personnel to select a team of intelligence officers from the Flying Squad and Kent police to work with him. Telephone calls and meetings between suspects were subsequently bugged and monitored. The diamond collection in the Money Zone of the Dome, which includes the 203-carat Millennium Star and 11 other rare blue diamonds, was identified as the target several weeks ago. As a result, De Beers swapped the jewels for copies. The operation was foiled.  Eight men arrested on Tuesday in connection with the incident at the  Dome were charged the next day with attempted robbery. (Sunday Telegraph, 12/11/2000 page 5, www.telegraph.co.uk //  Andrew Alderson) (courtesy Larry Sulc)

YEMEN DNA TESTING -- a new "INT"?   The FBI is performing DNA tests on some bodily remains to try to confirm the identities of two men who were aboard a small boat that exploded alongside the Cole in Yemeni harbor on Oct. 12, killing 17 American sailors.  Yemeni authorities also are conducting blood tests on people believed to be related to those involved in the attack.  The NY Times article says that evidence is beginning to point towards Osama Bin Laden.  If so, that could lead to more US retaliatory strikes.  The NYT also says that Yemeni authorities are thwarting parts of the FBI investigation. Other articles hint at US-Russian talks about a special mission to pick up Bin Laden in Afghanistan - ­ the Russians believe he is behind Czechen terrorism.
http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48771-2000Nov21.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/23/world/23YEME.html 

NEW MISSIONS FOR GLOBAL HAWK HIGH ALTITUDE UAV?
Multi-sensor payloads are being considered that would combine the output from radar, hyperspectral, infrared and signals intelligence sensors.
Global Hawk is also being examined as both a stand-in and stand-off jamming platform.   Information warfare (IW)--specifically the ability to intercept, read and alter enemy communications, as well as penetrate computers--is another possible role for Global Hawk.  Although a single Global Hawk could not duplicate the capability of the manned U-2, company officials believe multiple Global Hawks with integrated payloads could. (jdmac).
http://www.aviationnow.com/TwoShare/getPage?sid=5531626338283084245

SECTION II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

ISRAEL SELLS MISSILES TO INDIA  --
Israel has sold a number of anti-ship "Barak" missile systems to India for $270 million, ending a Russian monopoly on missile sales to New Delhi. The sale was quietly concluded in early October. The seven missile systems purchased (each consisting of five missiles), will ride on the Indian navyıs principal combatant, the aircraft carrier INS Viraat, and a couple of missile-firing frigates. They have the capability to target enemy ships beyond the horizon as well as missiles coming in from the air and sea. India chose the Barak because it offers protection against anti-ship missiles like the air-launched "Harpoon" (U.K.-made) and the ship-launched "Exocet" (French-made), which Pakistan possesses. The deal was inked around the same time Russian President Vladimir Putin was in India on a state visit, and could mark a significant shift in Indian defense purchases away from Russian firms. .
   The Barak offers precision, accuracy and an advanced target acquisition system not seen in comparable Russian systems like the Uran missile. The acquisition also means New Delhi is willing to pay a higher price for better quality.
   It is significant that Israel managed to sell the missile system when the United States, its main supplier of defense hardware, is said to be opposed to sales of advanced weaponry and missile systems to India. However, the India Abroad News Service (IANS) quoted the deputy spokesperson of the Israeli defense ministry in Jerusalem as saying that, "strategic arms sales to India are exempt from an American veto on technology transfer exports (by Israel)." The IANS report suggested that following a round of talks between the United States and Israel last month, Tel Aviv and India may revive the possible sale of the Phalcon early warning radar system.  (DefenseWk Nov20 p.5 // Mohammed Ahmedulla // (Jonkers)

MOSCOW COURT BARS EVIDENCE IN EDMOND POPE TRIAL.
Lawyers for US spy suspect Edmond Pope offered a court 83 pages of material they said was drawn from openly available literature about the high-speed Shkval torpedo. Defense lawyer Andrei Andrusenko said the material from scientific books at the Moscow Aviation Institute showed that Pope cannot be accused of spying. But the court refused to accept the material into evidence.  Pope, a retired naval intelligence officer, is charged with espionage for purchasing data about the torpedo.
Testimony at his closed, non-jury trial in Moscow City Court showed that a screening commission approved the information he was provided, and a key witness recanted his testimony that Pope received secret data. The original prosecutor in the case, Oleg Plotnikov, was replaced after it was disclosed that his son was part of the Federal Security Service team that investigated Pope.  Meanwhile, Judge Nina Barkova threw out a suit filed by a Russian navy anti-submarine weapons unit, which sought about $250 million in damages from Pope as a result of his activities. The one-page complaint claimed that this was the amount spent on developing the torpedo, created in the Soviet era.  [According to reports I've heard, there is already a "deal" -- Pope will be convicted then freed. --jdmac]
http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A56497-2000Nov24.html

BRITAIN'S MI 5 POISED TO ARREST FORMER STASI SPIES. An MI5 investigation into penetration of Whitehall, government research agencies and the British armed forces by the East German state security service, or Stasi, is coming to a head after almost two years.  (Kiracofe)
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/2000/11/26/stinwenws02032.html  

HOW NOT TO GET AHEAD IN THE US NAVY. Navy Lt Cmdr Jack Daly, the intelligence officer who continues to suffer from injuries experienced as a result of laser exposure during a 1997 encounter with a Russian spy ship, the Kapitan Man, has accused senior Clinton administration officials of treason for covering up the hostile attack.

"I have hesitated making this statement," Cmdr Daly said in an interview last week with Talk Net Daily radio host Geoff Metcalf. "But I am going to make this statement for the first time: According to the US Constitution, Article III, Section 3, this cover-up was treason. Those five people I named - [DepSecState] Strobe Talbott, [DepUndersDef] Jan Lodal, [DepNat SecurityAdv] James] Steinberg, [NSC staff aide] Robert Bell, Amb James Collins - committed treason. "

http://www.washtimes.com/national/inring-20001124214136.htm
(Macartney)

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

ISRAELI ­ PALESTINIAN   CYBER -WARFARE  BROADENS --
The cyber struggle that began in late September with the intensification of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict has reportedly led to the defacing or shut down of more than a hundred Web sites by pro-Israeli or pro-Palestinian hackers.  
As in the real-life conflict on the ground that has cost scores of lives (mostly Arab), there is a dispute as to who fired the first shot in this "virtual war."  One Web security firm monitoring the hacking conflict says that hackers from as far away as South America and the United States are expanding the battle by contributing their skills to whichever side has their sympathies.  A Washington, D.C., based Internet service firm believes students from Tel Aviv University have been attempting to hack into its site since early October.  The firm allows visitors to view broadcasts directly from various parts of the Middle East, including the Palestinian-controlled territories so shutting it down would deny access to Arab views.  
Thus far the cyber attacks have succeeded for at least brief periods in bringing down the main Israeli government portal, the Foreign Ministry Web site, but also penetrating the Hezbollah site, targeting Palestinian government sites and Palestinian  nationalist organizations such as Hamas.  What has distinguished this cyber-conflict from those seen in the past, such as in the Kosovo campaign, is that it is not even mainly a cat-and-mouse game of highly specialized hackers but instead appears to involve thousands of Israeli and Arab youngsters.  Often the attacks have followed the issuance of simplified instructions on the Web on how to strike the enemy.  Israel has an immense advantage in the conflict with about 1.1 million Internet hook-ups, more than in all 22 Arab countries combined.  Of course Israel's "connectedness" also means it offers more targets and is greatly more vulnerable to attack.  
In part due to the sheer lack of vital Palestinian pressure points, pro-Israeli hackers have apparently branched out to targets not directly involved but believed to be sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.  Casualties have been the Iranian Ministry for Foreign Affairs and Iran's Ministry of Agriculture.  
One expert estimates that roughly 90 pro-Israeli and 20 pro-Palestinian Web sites have been defaced or disabled since the cyber conflict began.  At least 12 different types of attack tools are thought to be in active distribution by both sides.  The most common are variations on denial-of-service and "ping-flood" types.  A variation of a tool known as the "Ping of Death" sends a single 64K packet that can completely crash most machines.  One estimate is that the core of the participants includes about 20 groups, and roughly 30 core individuals, from both sides,  with total numbers of participants substantially larger.  And that is not including Brazilian hackers who have attacked both Palestinian and Israeli sites.
One hopes the appropriate US authorities are studying all this for surely, we are highly likely to come under attack at some future point.
(Newsbytes (Yahoo) 20 Nov '00 by Brian Krebs;  Washington Post 22 Oct '00, p. A1;  USA Today 27 Oct '00, p. 20A;  Washington Times 28 Oct '00, p. A7) (Harvey)  

VIRUS ALERTS IN THE LAST WIN WERE HOAXES -- Several members were good enough to let me know that the virus alerts included in last WIN were incorrect. As a result the WIN will not report any further virus alert info -- I donıt have the time to check them out! Sorry for the inconvenience this may have caused. (Jonkers)  

SECTION IV ­ - BOOKS & OTHER SOURCES

TONY LAKE WILL BE AT OLSSON'S BOOKS TONIGHT. Anthony Lake, former National Security Advisor and DCI nominee, will discuss his new book, "SIX NIGHTMARES" at Olsson's Books, Metro Center, in Washington, DC, Tues, Nov 28, at 7pm.  Among other things, Lake advocates refined covert action by the CIA and the Pentagon, including cyber-attacks, so that the president will have retaliatory options that fall somewhere between Tomahawk cruise missiles and "posturing."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48840-2000Nov21.html 

ABA NATIONAL SECURITY CONFERENCE IN WASHINGTON, DEC 1& 2. http://www.abanet.org/natsecurity/ 

INTELFORUM.   IntelForum, an on-line, moderated academic discussion site focused on intelligence matters, is a year or two old now and is rapidly becoming a premier venue for serious discussion of intelligence. http://www.intelforum.org/http://www.intelforum.org/resources.html

SPY SCHOOL: DISCOVERY CHANNEL WEBSITE. This has got to be one of the slickest websites I've ever seen.  It's worth a visit for that reason alone.  But it also has a lot of information about intelligence.  Among other things, there's a "spy museum tour," a webcast of a TV show with Tony Mendez ("The Master of Disguise"), and a section called "the Masters," that contains photos and bios of history's famous spies (Mata Hari, Cambridge Five, Penkovsky and so on), plus a game, "To Catch a Spy."
[Jeremy Compton in New Zealand brought it to my attention. And where did Jeremy find it?  On the AFIO webpage, https://www.afio.com/, which has been growing and improving mightily in recent weeks thanks to Elizabeth Bancroft.]
http://www.discovery.com/stories/history/spyschool/spyschool.html //(Macartney)

THE CIA BRIEFING OF PRESIDENTS-ELECT. A new book on the webpage of the CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence (CSI) is "CIA Briefings of Presidential Candidates" by John Helgerson.  This important and fascinating book covers all pre-inauguration Presidential briefings from Truman through Clinton.  The author, Dr Helgerson, now retired from the CIA, is a former DDI ( Deputy Director for Intelligence).
http://www.cia.gov/csi/books/briefing/index.htm  (Macartney)

SECTION V ­- LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Two letters by eminent members of AFIO corrected some statements made in the NRO article in WIN#46. Both letters are greatly appreciated and add to understanding of the NRO, its place in the intelligence community, and its travails in Washington politics. The NRO has been, and remains, a truly important part of our national security defense.

LETTER TO THE EDITOR, by Marty Faga, former Director NRO, and current Director of MITRE Corporation, who served on the Congressional NRO Commission. Substance of letter correcting aspects of WIN46 article follows:

I was DNRO from 89 to Mar 93 and declassified the NRO in Oct 92.  My reasons for doing so, with the permission of the SECDEF and DCI and encouragement of Congress, was as you said, better integration with the rest of the intelligence community, better service to the military users, as well as recognition that we were classifying an open secret.  I once said in the debate leading to declassification:  "We're classified but not secret!  All of this long preceded the issue of the NRO building.

I also started the building project in 91 for the simple purpose of housing the organization which was becoming a single organization as a result of a Commission that reported to Bob Gates and recommended this course with which I strongly agreed.  The SSCI, particularly, pressed me to move forward on this but understood that the pace of collocation was hard to establish immediately.  The SSCI asked that I ensure that our facilities plans allowed for full relocation of all NRO elements.  To do that, required building rather than leasing a facility in order to have
the flexibility we needed.  All of this was regularly budgeted and reported.  
Time passes, committee members and staff changed, and in 1994, 18 months after I left, there was no one to remember all of this. Full review of the files showed that I had written 22 letters during my term to the Committees asking for various permissions, including reprogramming, and reporting on status of the effort.  
The idea that the building was paid for from funds intended for other purposes and in some hidden manner is not accurate.  I did not have the authority to redirect funds in such away from satellite to support programs; all was done in the routine budget process.

LETTER TO THE EDITOR by Dr. Mark Lowenthal, former Director, HPSCI Staff (104th Congress), Author and AFIO member. Substance follows:

Allow me to  take slight issue with your comments on the NRO (WIN 46-00, 11/17/00). The  key issue re NRO finances in the mid-90s was not the misapplication of  cost-savings achieved through durable satellites. First, re the NRO  headquarters -- that was only an issue in the Senate, which apparently had  trouble reading appropriations bills.  It was never an issue in the House.  Second, the issue that did become problematic was the carry forward  account. The NRO was allowed to carry forward appropriated funds from one  year to the next because Congress recognized that not all NRO programs were  fully executable in a 12 month fiscal year. The carry forward account  represented a cushion to avoid costly starts and stops in reconnaissance  programs.
The issue that arose was that the NRO was not being honest about  the size of the carry forward account, which had grown far beyond what had been  envisioned -- from a necessary cushion of several months to one that represented  perhaps "year's" worth of money. Repeated efforts by the HPSCI to find out  the true size of the account (which was also not revealed to the DCI until very  late in the process) was met with stonewalling. That was not and should  not have been permissible.  So, to  characterize the NRO as an agency that was punished for its achievements is  incorrect. NRO leadership was taken to task for being dishonest about its  management of appropriated funds.

SECTION VI - ­ ODDS AND ENDS

BELGRADE
--Serbian president Vojislav Kostunica, in concert with the Organization of the American States (OAS), announced the deployment more than 50,000 Serb and OAS peacekeeping troops to the U.S. Monday, based on disturbing intelligence reports of vote counting irregularities and problems in political correctness impacting on human rights, pledging full support to the troubled north American nation as it struggles to re-establish democracy.  "We must do all we can to support the rule of law and free elections in America to protect world peace and order"  Kostunica said. "The U.S. is a major player in the Western Hemisphere and its continued stability is vital to OAS interests in that region. Until America's political  figures learn to respect the institutions that have been put in place, the world stands at risk." OAS & Serb forces are being stationed in Florida, Tennessee, Oregon and Texas. Several of these states may be occupied for a long time, and may well be encouraged to become autonomous or independent states. Though Kostunica, speaking on behalf of the alliance, has pledged to work with U.S. leaders, he did not rule out the possibility of destroying the civilian infrastructure of the US by massive bombing and  economic sanctions if the crisis is not resolved soon." (courtesy Jack Nichols Moguls INFO@NOVASEC.COM) (Jonkers)

FLORIDA'S "DIMPLED CHAD": A CIA COVERT OPERATION?  Back in the 1980's, with the Cold War raging, the CIA developed a machine that could "manufacture" dimpled ballots.  The purpose was to contest close elections, if need be, in order to further US national interests. The machine was never used.  Rather, it was held in readiness by the CIA's covert operatives.  It was standing by (but not needed) when Violeta Chamorro defeated Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua's 1990 election. And just this September, the "dimple machine" was hauled out again (but not needed) when Vojislav Kostunica bested Slobodan Milosevic in Serbia's presidential election.  Of particular note, the "dimple machine's" inventor, a retired CIA employee (who happens also to be one of those suspected of having been on the "grassy knoll" in Dallas at the time of JFK's assassination), is believed to be now living in Florida.  SO, COULD the CIA's "dimple machine" have finally been put to work on the Vice President's behalf in Florida's Presidential balloting?  No way!  Absolutely not! Why?  Because, of course, I'm making all this up.  It's a JOKE!  Not one "dimple" of truth whatsoever.  Ha, ha  ( http://www.Lighten-Up.It's-a-Joke.com // Macartney)

ROYAL NAVY & MARINE FITNESS REPORTS­ (FORM S206) EXCERPTS - - British efficiency reports are often marked by pithy summations. Some samples:  
* His men would follow him anywhere, but only out of curiosity.
* When he joined my ship, this officer was something of a granny; since then he has aged considerably.
* This officer is really not so much of a has-been, but more of a definitely won't-be.
* When she opens her mouth, it seems that it's only to change whichever foot was previously in there. 
           (courtesy : Edward Badolato)

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