Weekly Intelligence Notes #06-02
WIN 06-02 dated 11 Feb 2002
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are produced by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and ISIS associates. Don Harvey contributes articles to the WINs.
INTELLIGENCE SYMPOSIUM, 16 May 2002, McLean, Virginia.
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WHITE HOUSE BUDGET FOR STRENGTHENING HOMELAND SECURITY -- The President's budget nearly doubles funding for a sustained strategy of homeland security, focused on four key areas: Bioterrorism, Emergency Response, Airport and Border Security, and NEW INTELLIGENCE ARRANGEMENTS.
The President's Plan includes the following:
(1) Nearly $6 billion to defend
against bio-terrorism. This will help hospitals become better able
to respond to a bio-terror emergency; boost research and development
of new vaccines, medicines and diagnostic tests; and build up the
critical National Pharmaceutical Stockpile.
Teets also announced two additional appointments f or his new organization: Air Force Lt. Gen. Brian Arnold, currently commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center at Los Angeles Air Force Base, is the new Program Executive Officer for Air Force Space; and Army Brig. Gen. Steve Farrell is the new National Security Space Architect.
The new offices are the result of changes recommended in the 'Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization,' which Congress authorized as part of the FY2000 defense budget. The commission's report, issued in January 2001, urged better cooperation and coordination between military and civilian agencies responsible for U.S. space activities.
Teets, the former president and chief operating officer of Lockheed Martin's Information and Services Sector, said that "Our mission now is to bring together military and national space capabilities. It is vitally important to have assured access to space, and also to protect those assets." Even if we can only see the tip of the iceberg of national space operations, the comprehensive "systems" approach to US national security-related space assets, both military and civil, from both offensive and defensive perspectives, in peace, war and conditions in between (such as terrorism), is a most useful step forward. (Jonkers) (Washington 9 Feb 02 //L. Burgess) ( http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=6669 )
REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE - AFGHANISTAN -- The Taliban are regrouping, the foreign minister of Afghanistan has warned. He said that its leaders have formed two new political organizations "in another country" -- Pakistan. The Pashtuns, whether notionally Afghan or Pakistani, have never acknowledged the 1,400km (900-mile) border between the two countries. After the collapse of the Taliban, most of the movement's members simply changed their black turbans, swapped sides and stayed put in the cities of Afghanistan. But senior commanders, who feared they would be arrested by Americans went on the run. Abdul Sahadi , the former Defense Minister, now in Pakistan, explained how their getaway had been arranged. "We shaved off our beards, changed our turbans from Taliban white to Kandahari green, got in cars and drove across the border," he said. "We're not broken, we're whole. Now we are just waiting. We are regrouping. We still have arms and many supporters inside [Afghanistan], and when the time is right, we will be back."
The case of the former Taliban foreign minister Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil, who surrendered this weekend, reinforces the point. Muttawakil, 32, had various jobs in the Taliban high command, including Mullah Omar's driver, translator and food taster, before becoming foreign minister an interesting side-commentary on the Taliban's leadership. He is being interrogated by US forces in Kandahar. He was not "captured"; he merely walked in and gave himself up, probably with the "encouragement" of Pakistani authorities. In mid-October, Mr. Muttawakil materialized in Islamabad, reportedly having been spirited out of Afghanistan by Pakistani secret agents in a light aircraft. He had a 90-minute meeting with Lieutenant-General Ehsa-nul Haq, President Pervez Musharraf's hand-picked chief of ISI, the powerful military intelligence agency, apparently trying to get Pakistan to persuade America to suspend bombing for a few days, in return for which he would persuade Mullah Omar to hand Osama bin Laden to the US. The deal, of course, came to nothing.
Along with the Taliban leadership, the bulk of the al Qaeda personnel also seem to have escaped, either through Pakistan or Iran, and have moved onward. At the beginning of the Afghan campaign an earlier WIN predicted that the Taliban regime would collapse like a house of cards if we played our hand correctly. This was based on the example of how the Taliban got control over the state to start with by bribing local warlords. The Taliban government has collapsed, but the game goes on. As the President has warned, the war will be protracted. Neither the al Qaeda or Taliban, under whatever name, nor Islamic radicalism, nor the causes that fuel their fervor, have disappeared. (Jonkers) (11 Feb 02// P. Popham/ New Delhi)
REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE - IRAN - RUSSIA - US -- Russia's parliament recently ratified a partnership treaty with Iran signed last year by Iranian Premier Khatami and President Vladimir Putin on 12 March 2001, superceding the 1940 treaty. The new cooperation treaty commits Russia and Iran not to use force, or the threat of force, against each other, and further commits each country not to harbor or condone "aggression, subversive or separatist acts against the other. " The previous treaty, signed by Iran and the USSR in 1940, envisaged Soviet troops entering Iranian territory when and if Iran's security was threatened. Significantly, that provision has been eliminated in the new 2001 treaty.
Moscow and Tehran also signed a military purchase agreement on 2 October 2001 that could earn Russia around 400 million dollars in sales of its medium-range air defense systems and other arms. Russia had earlier last year scrapped an agreement with the United States barring arms sales to Iran, perhaps following in US footsteps in repudiating treaties it no longer finds in its interest.
President Bush has included Iran in his "axis of evil." US leaders have expressed concern over the military links between Russia and Iran, and about Russian assistance in building the nuclear-power generation plant at Bushehr, leading to fears that Iran could gain expertise that could be useful for potential nuclear arms development. Such a potential capability is seen as a threat to Israel's regional monopoly of nuclear (and other) 'weapons of mass destruction.' Russia, very much short of cash and needing export earnings, has tried to dismiss those fears, while stating that it will continue construction of the Iranian power plant, and that it may also involve Iran in joint space projects. Given the clash of perceptions and interests amidst a welter of conflicting paranoia's, things will remain interesting for clandestine activities as well as overt diplomatic activities, and certainly for intelligence. (Jonkers) (Agence France-Presse //Terradaily 26 Dec 02 ) ( http://www.spacedaily.com/news/nuclear-civil-01g.html)
REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE - INDIA - RUSSIA -- India and Russia concluded a wide-ranging military protocol, paving the way for several billion dollars worth of defense deals that will impact on the strategic balance in the region with respect to Pakistan and China. The protocol will steer the long-time military allies away from simple supply and acquisition of equipment towards the area of joint defense development and production. Russia is willing to go beyond the sale and lease of hi-tech weapons. Currently intense negotiations are underway for the lease by India of two Russian nuclear submarines and two TU-22 long-range strategic bombers, as well as the purchase of the aircraft carrier, Admiral Gorshkov. If agreements are reached on all the leasing proposals, as well as the carrier purchase, the total cost to India could be in excess of three billion dollars. The $2 Billion cost of the 44,000-ton Admiral Gorshkov would include the vessel, the price of a modernization program underway in Russia's northern port of Severodvinsk, and the training of Indian crew members. The deal also includes the construction of port facilities in India capable of receiving the Admiral Gorshkov and the supply of MiG-29K jets that would fill its hangars.
India is also negotiating similar large contracts with Israel and the US for a variety of weapons and sensor systems, including the ARROW anti-missile system. (Jonkers) (Agence France Presse /Times of India 8 Feb 2002) (Defense News 410Feb 02, p.6)
GERMAN SPECIALIST TROOPS DEPART FOR ARABIAN PENINSULA -- According to the BBC, "The Bundeswehr is now deploying NBC [nuclear, biological, chemical] defense forces on the Arab Peninsula. The unit is to participate, alongside US special forces, in an exercise for the detection of nuclear, biological and chemical contamination in Kuwait." This may mean little, or possibly a lot, in the context of the announced US drive to overthrow Iraq's Saddam Hussein. (Jonkers) (Financial Times 6 Feb 02 & BBC Monitoring Service) http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020206005025
INTERPOL TERRORIST FINANCIAL DATABASE -- Over the next months, Interpol will provide the world's police agencies with lists of terrorist financiers. This is a first follow-up on the December 2001 initiative between Interpol and the U.S. Department of Treasury to strengthen the international efforts to crack down on terrorism financing. (B. Sawallesh) http://www.interpol.int/Default.asp
CYBER SECURITY POLICY -- Richard A. Clarke, White House Cyberspace Security Advisor, has engaged in an aggressive public awareness campaign on the US vulnerability to a cyber attack. In private meetings with chief executives and in speeches at conferences, Clarke has pushed companies to commit themselves to protecting the online world from attacks by terrorists and other nefarious parties. "There is . . . a growing consensus in government and industry that we can no longer continue praising the emperor's new clothes," Clarke said in an interview this week. "There is a willingness to admit that there are vulnerabilities and it is not inconceivable that they will be used against us in a way that could be very damaging to the economy." Clarke successfully lobbied for an increase from $2.7 billion in fiscal year 2002 to $4 billion in 2003 for government-computer security.
There are indications that the industry "heavies" are coming aboard. Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates declared that making his company's software less vulnerable to security breaches would take precedence over adding new features. Oracle Corp.'s Larry Ellison pledged to make his company's database programs "unbreakable." Cisco Systems Inc.'s John Chambers told clients at a private conference that he no longer regarded security enhancements on equipment that directs traffic across the Internet as extras but as necessities.
The various government agencies in charge of cyber security will come together under one roof this month at the old Y2K initiative headquarters at 18th and G Street. The Commerce Department's Critical Infrastructure Assurance Office and the FBI's National Infrastructure Protection Center outreach operations -- two groups known for past turf battles -- will join Clarke's staff. His office has created task forces of major Internet service providers, router manufacturers and security experts in and out of government to develop a plan to protect the basic infrastructure of the Internet. Their proposals are due in April. Over the past few months Clarke has drawn up his own ambitious agenda, which includes:
Creating an Underwriters Laboratory-type place to test software security.
Establishing a priority cell-phone system for law enforcement and medical personnel.
Creating a "reverse 911," or multimedia emergency broadcasting service, to send alerts to people in specific areas on land lines, cell phones or computers.
Establishing ties with cyber security experts in other countries to coordinate investigations.
Setting up a government-run Internet called GovNet.
Some question Clark's priorities. His proposal to create GovNet has been criticized by many experts as impractical and costly. His partnership approach to get industry to do things voluntarily has clashed with the opinions of groups such as the National Academy of Sciences, which recently put out a report that said new liability laws are the answer. Eugene Spafford, director of Purdue University's Center for Education and Research in Information Assurance and Security, said Clarke should spend more of his energy on getting federal computer systems up to par.
(Jonkers) (WashPost 8 January 2002, page E 1 //A. Cha)
HOUSE BILL PUMPS $800 MILLION INTO CYBER SECURITY R & D -- The House today overwhelmingly passed a bill to expand systems security R&D at the National Science Foundation and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Members approved the Cyber Security R&D Act by a vote of 400 to 12. HR 3394 would authorize $880 million over five years beginning in fiscal 2003. (Levine 02/07)
PRESIDENT BUSH GUIDED BY KOREA REPORT?? -- The tough-minded findings of a 1999 report written by Richard Armitage when he headed a policy forum on North Korea, may be relevant in regard to the president's position on North Korea, which is now included in the 'axis of evil.' Armitage, now Bush's Deputy Secretary of State, recommended that, should diplomacy fail, North Korean ships be interdicted on the high seas to stamp out its missile exports. It proposed, as a last resort, pre-emptive strikes targeting military facilities against which the U.S. believes it would have "probable success." http://www.feer.com/articles/2002/0202_14/p012region.html
SEE NO EVIL: The True Story Of A Ground Soldier In The CIA's War On Terrorism, By Robert Baer. New York: Crown Publishers, 2002. Illustrated. 284 pages. Robert Baer, a retired mid-level officer in CIA's directorate of operations (DO), who has been called an energetic and talented risk-taker but also somewhat of a "loose gun on deck,' has written a very readable story of his activities and frustrations in serving the Agency and the country. He has a cause and a message. ''The CIA. was systematically destroyed by political correctness, by petty Beltway wars, by careerism and much more.'' No wonder, he says, that the Sept. 11 attacks caught the United States by surprise.
Baer, who quit the agency four years ago, says he is angry about all this, but he clearly has a good time recounting how the CIA. went to the dogs. Though ''See No Evil'' is breezy and blustery and presents a one-sided view, it is also entertaining and at times revealing. The timing of his book is opportune. With the CIA. engaged in a secret war against terrorism, there is -- and should be -- great public interest in the culture of the place and the kinds of men and women who work there. Insiders will argue that Baer's information is outdated, but it may be grist on the mill for partisan headhunters. A Congressional joint committee is now gearing up to start an investigation of CIA and the Intelligence Community.
The most dramatic set piece in ''See No Evil'' is Baer's virtually single-handed attempt to stir up a rebellion against Saddam Hussein in Iraq in the mid-90's. As Baer tells it, he managed to get various Iraqi colonels and Kurdish leaders lined up to overthrow the Iraqi strongman, but the nervous Nellies in Washington pulled the plug at the last minute. The Kurds fell to fighting with each other, and Baer had to flee. Did the Clinton administration blow a great opportunity? Baer argues that it did, but Clinton's national security adviser, Anthony Lake, and the CIA's analysts back at Langley apparently believed that the operation had been fatally compromised and decided to cut their losses. The full truth about the operation and its chances for success will probably never be known.
How credible is Baer? The key to good intelligence is striking a balance and accepting the reality that some covert actions will fail. For the most part, policy makers turn to covert action when all other options look hopeless. Presidents still call on the agency to do dirty jobs: intelligence officials now say that the CIA. has been trying to kill Osama bin Laden since at least 1998. The agency's failure of intelligence on Sept. 11 may say more about the magnitude of the task than the lack of will or effort. Now the job is to root Al Qaeda out of dozens of countries. That will take luck and ingenuity and -- for all their bluffing and swagger and perhaps skewed sense of proportion -- more men like Bob Baer. (Jonkers) (Evan Thomas, NYT Book Review 3 Feb 02)
LT. GENERAL (ret) JAMES CLAPPER, DIRECTOR NIMA, writes in regard to an item in WIN 44-01 dtd 12 Nov 01, entitled 'National Imagery and Mapping Agency Buys Commercial Imagery of Afghanistan' --
"I want to provide you with some insight into the value of that commercial collection for our increasingly integrated geospatial intelligence mission, which we are calling 'geospatial intelligence.' We are pleased with our progress in incorporating the use of commercial imagery into our routine production..." In the immediate aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks, we provided products we derived from IKONOS imagery to FEMA, DoD, the State Department, USIA and coalition organizations. " ...The expedited delivery of these products (incorporating commercial imagery and with minimum annotations and symbology) enables decision-makers, planners and operators to work with very current information."
..."Please allow me to correct some statements in the article: (1) In respect to Israel, no Federal Agency may "license the collection or dissemination of imagery more detailed or precise than that routinely available from non- U.S. commercial sources. In practice this does not preclude collection, but does affect the size of what can be recognized on images of Israel; (2) That restriction is not what is understood by "shutter control." That condition may be enforced, upon formal request by the Department of Defense, against US commercial imaging satellites, to preclude collection and distribution, except as needed by the US Government, over a given territory and time span. "To date, 'shutter control,' a directive action by the U.S. Government, has not been exercised."
And (3), NIMA has reserved the exclusive rights to some Afghanistan imagery, not by paying a heavy premium, but in accordance with an "option in our basic purchase contracts with each vendor."
EDITOR's NOTE: Our thanks to General Clapper for this update and correction. Other than the substantive information, a most interesting reference in this letter is to NIMA's "geospatial intelligence mission." This reflects Gen. Clapper's energetic and effective leadership in integrating the missions of the old Defense Mapping Agency and the IC's Imagery Analysis functions that were combined in a shotgun marriage into NIMA a few years ago. We look forward to his presentation at a forthcoming AFIO Luncheon. (RJ)
DUTCH DOCUMENTARY CREW SEEKS HELP -- "We are looking for experts from abroad who are willing to tell us about their experience with Dutch Intelligence ( and more particularly with the BVD National Security Service), during the Cold War. "We are focusing on the 'successes', of the BVD, or at least that what makes them interesting. For decades the Dutch press has been focusing more on failures (or what looks like failure) and victims, which may be useful but which does not show the complete picture. We hope and have good reasons to believe we are able to show a new view on Intelligence for our national audience. A non-biased overview of a fascinating history."
Anyone who has the requisite experiences of interacting with the Dutch and is at liberty to discuss same, may contact the documentary crew directly. Producer E. van Slagmaat, Spring Film, Amsterdam, tel 31-20-771 45 75 (or 78)
IN MEMORIAM -- Robert J. Lamphere, 83, former FBI agent, died 7 January 2002 in Tucson, Arizona. He supervised, contributed or participated in the investigations of some of the biggest espionage cases of the Cold War, including those of the Rosenbergs, Klaus Fuchs and Kim Philby.
Lamphere's greatest contribution was in using deciphered Soviet WWII cables (VENONA) to build espionage cases from 1948 onward until 1955, when he left the FBI. He published his memoirs in 1986. His book is entitled The FBI-KGB War: A Special Agent's Story, (Random House, 1986). As he recounts, he followed the trail step-by-step, spy-by-spy, through the cases of Klaus Fuchs, Harry Gold and Ruth Gleenglass to the Rosenbergs. He contradicted the notion of an FBI frame-up of the Rosenbergs, long suggested by their supporters. He noted that this would have required that the FBI 'set out to get them' years before the agency even knew who they were. In regard to the fate of the Rosenbergs' it was Lamphere's opinion shared by many of us that Ethel Rosenberg should not have been executed. In his view Julius Rosenberg deserved the death penalty, but should have been offered a reprieve if he had been willing to cooperate with the FBI which he did not do. Incidentally, Lamphere also was critical of Senator McCarthy, who played a key but unfortunate role in bringing the world of communist "fellow-travelers" to the attention of the American public after the prolonged period of US Government/ media pro-communist propaganda during WW II, for his "lies and overstatements" that "hurt the counterintelligence efforts." (Jonkers) (NYT 11 Feb02//D. Martin)
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