Weekly Intelligence Notes #10-02
WIN #10-02, dated 11 March 2002
Apologies: WIN 10 dissemination was delayed due to server problems during server upgrades and consolidations.
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are produced and edited by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members, ISIS associates and WIN subscribers. RADM (ret) Don Harvey contributes articles to selected WINs.
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THREAT WARNING -- Robert Walpole, the NIO for
strategic and nuclear programs, told a Congressional panel that "The
missile threat will continue to grow." The chance that a missile with a
nuclear, chemical or biological warhead will be used against US forces or
interests (my italics) was said to be 'greater than during most of the Cold
Walpole's public remarks were drawn from a classified CIA report to Congress that covered the threat during the next 15 years. Walpole reflected current Washington fashion by singling out the obligatory threesome of dwarfs, identifying Iran and North Korea as 'probably' being capable of having a missile that could reach the USA itself by 2015, and Iraq 'unlikely but possibly' capable. North Korea was farthest along technologically and might be ready to test the Taepo Dong-2, a missile capable of delivering a nuclear payload to the United States. The country is believed to possess one and perhaps two nuclear weapons and has undertaken chemical and biological weapons programs. Iran is unlikely to test a missile capable of reaching the United States for five years or longer, but this may be shorter -- a judgment possibly reflecting prevailing political pressures. Iraq lags both countries, due to crippling UN sanctions. ''Most agencies believe that Iraq is unlikely to test before 2015 any [intercontinental ballistic missiles] that would threaten the United States, even if UN prohibitions were eliminated or significantly reduced in the next few years.'' Iraq, an internally fractured and crippled minor secular Arab power, not yet infected by religious fundamentalism (except in the Kurdish area) is, of course, reported to be next in line for unspecified, but likely violent, US operations.
In judging these predictions for nuclear-armed missiles fifteen years hence, one must note that they are difficult under the best of circumstances, even if they are made on the basis of good intelligence and by smart people. Like past assessments, the testimony (and presumably the report) focused on the technological programs of the three minor power "dwarfs." It offered no reason why the three "evil" powers would risk a totally devastating US preemptive or counterattack and absolute destruction by preparing to launch a very limited strike on the United States, its forces, or its declared allies.
In regard to great power threats, Walpole noted that Russia posed a lesser
threat (one supposes based on intent and readiness rather than numbers
analysis) . From about 10,000 warheads in 1990, Russia now maintains fewer than
4,000. Unless it dramatically increases spending, the arsenal will probably
have fewer than 2,000 by the year 2015. That drop is expected with or without a
new arms control deal. China is expected to have about 200 ICBMs by 2015. Other
nuclear powers with Weapons of Mass Destruction capabilities (UK, France,
Israel, India, Pakistan) were not mentioned in the article.
Rising to cold reality, Walpole stressed that the Intelligence community analysts believe a greater danger to the US, now and until 2015, is the risk of terrorist delivering a 'weapon of mass destruction' (lethality varies greatly in this definition) by non-traditional means -- truck, ship or airplane. '' Non-missile delivery methods and means are less costly, easier to acquire, and more reliable and accurate. Walpole noted that since Sept. 11, intelligence agencies have been focusing more and more on weapons delivered unconventionally. ''Those are very hard for intelligence to track, whether it's domestic intelligence, the FBI doing it, or whether we're trying to do it overseas,''
Obviously, to guard against such an attack, Intelligence, counter-terrorist operations, and security measures and consciousness pervading the homeland defense structures and the general society, are our primary defenses.(Jonkers) (Boston Globe 12 Mar02, p. 12)
CLASSIFIED U.S. NUCLEAR GUIDANCE LEAKED -- The gist of the classified DEFENSE NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW leaked this week reportedly named seven countries -- Russia, China, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Libya and Syria (can Cuba be far behind?) -- as potential nuclear targets in U.S. contingency planning. It further asserted the need for the development of new small nuclear weapons that would be tailored destroy underground bunkers.
The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) was mandated by Congress, which directed that its report to Congress be delivered "in unclassified and classified forms, as necessary." It was presumably the intent of Congress that the broad policy issues involved in the structuring of U.S. nuclear forces should be the subject of public debate. But no unclassified NPR report was delivered, although a declassified foreword was released at a Pentagon briefing on 9 January.
The current leak has opened public debate about the Administration's view of nuclear weapons as an instrument of power across a broad spectrum of applications. The classified report is not yet in the public domain, but has been described at some length in the press -- see references below. (Jonkers) (Secrecy News) (LATimes 10 Mar02 // Arkin <http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-op-arkinmar10.story>) (NYT 10/11 Mar 02 //Gordon) (<http://nyimes.com/2002/03/10/international/10NUKE.html> <http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/11/international/11ASSE.html>)
NEW INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION SENSORS -- Defense Department officials recently announced about $30 million worth of technology development projects as part of a program this year to bring new high-tech equipment into the military inventory.
Of intelligence collection interest is a $1 million project this year to develop a tiny, 6-by-9 inch surveillance drone or UAV. There had been "Gee Whiz" references in the press to a toy-like drone earlier, but this seems to be the first specific confirmation. The tiny drone for surveillance, if developed and deployed, has two advantages: one, it almost surely will be under the control of the people in the field who have the immediate need for the intelligence; and two, it is small enough to make it difficult for enthusiastic backers to lard it up with improved capabilities, armor or weapons, similar to what has happened with the Predator.
Another new technology development project is the "Hyperspectral Collection and Analysis System" to allow the pinpointing of targets, such as tanks, despite the enemy's efforts to conceal them. DOD plans to spend $3 million on this effort this year. The officials making the announcement also indicated they hope to get enough funding from other countries to develop the Spartan, a remote-controlled watercraft to be used for surveillance and to fire weapons.
(Harvey) (AP - NY Times, 5 Mar '02 )
INTELLIGENCE ISR NETWORKS KEY TO VICTORY IN AFGHAN COMBAT -- The Afghanistan air campaign is not over, but analysts and senior military officials are hailing it as the first conflict in which intelligence was the primary U.S. tactical weapon. Key factors were the ability to maintain round-the-clock surveillance, integration at the tactical and operational levels of intelligence from many sources, and the ability to command and control data collection and strike operations.
In Afghanistan the US has enjoyed, for the first time, a truly persistent, real-time Intelligence / Surveillance /Reconnaissance (ISR) system, networked directly with each other , or through a Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC). For example, a Rivet Joint orbiting over Pakistan, or a signals intelligence satellite in space, picks up a communication indicating Al Qaeda activity in some corner of Afghanistan. That SIGINT "tipper" is sent to the CAOC. Operators there look for the fastest intelligence / surveillance platform--Joint-STARS, AWACS or P-3, for example--and send it to the hot spot to begin controlling the local engagement using its wide-area sensors. Meanwhile, a slower Predator UAV is turned and starts taking its acute but narrow field-of-view sensors to the scene. A Joint-STARS ground surveillance radar can look over a wide area and find moving objects, for instance, so having Joint- STARS cue the Predator was very effective. The Predator shows up and relieves the manned aircraft, which moves off to the next problem. The UAV then provides precise target coordinates to an AC-130 gunship or a strike aircraft.
The CAOC in Saudi Arabia proved itself a critical part of the Afghanistan campaign. The ground-based combined air operations center was absolutely fundamental to making all this work It was the one place that had a complete picture of the air campaign. The CAOC allows the operators to watch ISR lead the mission. They can then, based on what they see, change the direction of the battle. All in all, even allowing for the completely permissive air operations environment, this has been a quantum step forward from the much-maligned Kosovo air campaign, and a an immense enhancement of Gulf War capabilities. (Jonkers) (Aviation Wk &Space Technology, 11Mar02, p.24 //D. Fulghum)
IRAQI OPPOSITION TO GET US-BACKED RADIO TRANSMITTER -- The State Department has indicated that it is prepared to pay to build a radio transmitter on Iraqi territory, to broadcast Iraqi National Congress (INC) programs to the Iraqi people . Apparently the INC had considered setting up the transmitter in Iranian territory -- where it already has an office in Tehran as a base for many of its activities -- but for symbolism reasons, the INC leader, Ahmad Chalabi, has decided to persuade the State Department he has sufficient Kurdish backing to allow the installation in part of northern Iraq. The two main Kurdish groups, one led by Jalal Talabani and the other by his rival, Massoud Barzani, allegedly will support the installation which Chalabi proposes to locate on territory controlled by a small Kurdish Socialist party that supports the plan.
The US currently spends about $400,000 a month to broadcast INC satellite television programs to Iraq, a four-hour broadcast, repeated six times a day, which can only be seen by Iraqis with satellite dishes. US short-wave radio broadcasts to Iraq are also in use, and a new FM transmitter would have the power to reach Baghdad and other cities in central Iraq. FM is more popular and more difficult to jam according to the INC officials. Earlier activities of the INC have been judged as mere irritants to the Saddam Hussein regime. The current planning is apparently considered to fall in the "something is better than nothing" category. (Harvey) (NYTimes 28 Feb '01, p. 1 // M. Gordon)
COMPUTER-SURVEILLANCE SPYWARE EXPOSED ON THE WEB -- Software marketed as a computer surveillance tool for law enforcement investigators had its secrets laid bare on an anonymous Web site. A closely-held software package designed to allow law enforcement agencies to secretly monitor a suspect's computer turned up on an anonymous Web site in the Netherlands Wednesday, along with user manuals, financial information, contracts and invoices apparently stolen from the company that makes the surveillance tool. (Levine's Newsbits 03/13/02)(http://online.securityfocus.com/news/354)
QWEST CEO TO HEAD NSTAC -- Joe Nacchio, chief executive of Qwest Communications International, was appointed chairman of President George W. Bush's National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (NSTAC). NSTAC consists of a group of 30 telecom and technology CEOs that provides advice and analysis to the president and other government officials on matters of national security, such as how to safeguard the nation's telecom infrastructure and protect critical information.
SECRET SERVICE ESTABLISHES ELECTRONIC CRIMES TASK FORCES -- The Secret Service was mandated by the USA Patriot Act to establish a nationwide network of Electronic Crimes Task Forces, modeled after the Secret Service's New York electronic crimes office. So far, eight have been implemented. The task forces mark a new direction for the Secret Service. That direction involves a more inclusive approach to crime fighting that invites industry and academia to join law enforcement in attacking cyber-crime.
TARGETED BY THE CIA: An Intelligence Professional speaks Out on the Scandal that Turned the CIA Upside Down, by S. Peter Karlow, Turner Publishing Company, Paducah, KY., 2001, ISBN 1-56311-653-7.
What would you do if suddenly you were accused of being a Soviet mole? It would obviously be a complete and utter shock. Peter Karlow lived this nightmare. After service with the Navy and OSS field operations during World War II -- in the course of which he lost part of a leg -- he continued in the CIA, until, one day, he was addressed by two FBI agents and asked to "assist with inquiries," as the British euphemistically call it. This inquiry turned out to be his own. He was accused of being a Soviet spy. Any loyal career officer can understand the shock. His crime, he found out later, was that his name started with a "K." Alexander Golitsin, Soviet defector, had told James Angleton that there was a mole within CIA. He could not remember the name, but it started with a "K." That ended Peter's career and began years of turmoil, until he was finally completely cleared, compensated and decorated.
Peter tells his story, his OSS days (the first 88 pages of 178) with operations in North Africa, Corsica, Italy , the creation of CIA, and his CIA Cold War work, and then when the CIA turned on him -- the FBI interrogations and what followed, including his eventual complete exoneration and decoration, all in easy to read fluid prose. It is not only a shocking story, but an interesting account by someone with an outstanding memory, who tells the story without bitterness or rancor, a treasure of information from a working-level perspective about wartime and peacetime intelligence and "special" operations. It is also an account of the struggles within the CIA (and the Intelligence Community) to deal with the threat of penetration and betrayal -- threats with which we have become familiar with the stories of Walker, Ames and Hanssen, among a host of others. As it worked out, Angleton and Golitsin formed a strange team that indeed can be said to have turned 'CIA upside down', decimated the work of the Soviet Russia Division and impacted on CIA's defenses against Soviet operations.
Peter Karlow's book is one of four recently published by distinguished AFIO members, including John Waller, Fred Rustmann, and David Doyle, that will be reviewed in the WINs in the next weeks, each one special in its own right. I read, liked, and recommend this one by Peter Karlow -- a remarkable story. It should be made into a movie. (Jonkers)
DOOMSDAY SCENARIO, L. Douglas Keeney (ed), Motorbooks International 2002, is mentioned here as it relates - vaguely - to U.S. government planning for nuclear war in the articles in Section I above. The slim volume reprints a 1958 edition of the Pentagon's "Emergency Plans Book," which described in grim detail a catastrophic nuclear attack scenario and the obstacles to reconstituting civilized life.
The document was declassified in 1998 and made publicly available in the National Archives. The book's foreword, by Stephen I. Schwartz, links the emergency preparedness efforts of the early Cold War to the Continuity of Government plans that were activated on September 11. For a review, see Salon Magazine, Feb 7, 2002. (Aftergood, Secrecy News) (< http://www.salon.com/books/feature/2002/02/07/doomsday/index.html >)
FOREIGN RELATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES 1961-1963 - Volume XXV," was published by the US Department of State last week. One of the many topics covered is the Kennedy Administration's interest in "Information Policy" , which is relevant to the recent dust-up over the DoD's surfacing of its "Office of Strategic Influence," now apparently torpedoed by insider leaks. It all relates to various forms of US Government propaganda against foreign targets. During the Cold War, these activities included officially deniable sponsorship of foreign media outlets as well as overtly targeted "message" campaigns. "Every effort shall be made to avoid public awareness of the relationship between the various ostensibly non-governmental broadcasting stations and the U.S. Government," according to a newly declassified sentence from the 1961 National Security Action Memorandum No. 63. The new FRUS volume also documents the reorganization of military intelligence during the early 1960s, including the establishment of the National Reconnaissance Program and the new Defense Intelligence Agency.
(Jonkers) (Secrecy News #19) (< http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ho/frus/kennedyjf/ol/xxv/ >)
Andre LG writes -- I recently gave a talk on
Terrorism and Intelligence and the War in Berkeley (Ca.) and received the following
email from an attendee. "My personal thanks to you and your wife for the
invaluable service you have given our country. It takes dedication and
integrity to devote so much of
your time and energy to the safety and well-being of our citizens. Thank God for you and others like you." Since this type of comment to a serving or x-case officer is unique in my experience, I thought I would share it with everyone who deserves the thanks.
ANNOUNCEMENT - OSS '02, The Tenth International Global Information Forum, will be conducted in Washington, D.C. in early May, as follows:
6 May: Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) Training
7 May: Advanced Internet Exploitation for the Government Intelligence Professional
8 May: FEDERAL DAY: Making Sense of Non-State Actors
9 May: Exhibits of advanced analysis tools, deep skill workshops
10 May: INTERNATIONAL DAY: Web-Based Information Sharing for Global Coverage
Complete information at http://www.oss.net/OSS02; or send email to email@example.com or call (703) 242-1700 or fax (703) 242-1711. Sponsored by Robert David Steele, author of ON INTELLIGENCE: Spies and Secrecy in an Open World (AFCEA 2000, OSS 2001). Registration - Substantial discounts for early and multiple registrations -- available by the day.
AUSA's INFORMATION OPERATIONS SYMPOSIUM 2002 -- will be at the Fairview Park Marriott April 8-10. Military co-sponsors are G2 (lead), G3 and G6. This year's theme is Asymmetric Warfare. Highlights include dinner speaker GEN (R) McCaffrey and GEN Meigs. Full agenda and online registration are on the AUSA web site at http://www.ausa.org/meetings. Point of contact for Army G2 is Collin Agee, Army Intel Master Plan at Collin.Agee@hqda.army.mil or (703) 681-9345.
HUMINT VACANCIES - 40 - 60 individuals are needed. Job opportunities in the CONUS are in Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Leavenworth, San Antonio, Albuquerque, Denver, Miami, Atlanta, Chicago, Washington DC, Boston, New Carrollton, Suitland, New York, and Andrews AFB. Overseas locations include Hawaii, Korea, Japan, Germany and Bosnia. Applicants selected will be subject to a government security investigation and must meet eligibility requirements for access to classified information. MUST HAVE A CURRENT TS /SCI CLEARANCE. Submit all résumé's via email to <firstname.lastname@example.org> Contact: Emmanuel Sheafe, 9am- 5pm 757-518-8600, After 5pm, 757-518-9508 EXT 35 Fax 757-518-9436
FORMER NATIONAL ASA MEMBERS ON INTERNET: Calling all former National Army Security Agency (NASA) Members. The NASA Association (NASAA) invites you visit its website at <http://nasaa-home.org>. Since it's founding in 1997 NASAA has provided a forum for old comrades-in-arms to find each other. The NASAA website contains links to over 400 ASA -elated websites, the most comprehensive listing of ASA Reunions available anywhere, and much more. (<BCooper960@aol.com>)
IN MEMORIAM -- LEE HOUCHINS, a longtime AFIO member, died on March 4th in Arlington from acute emphysema at the age of 75. A retired Navy Commander who obtained his Ph.D.. in Asian studies, he taught at Georgetown University in the 1970's. a longtime AFIO member, he served briefly as editor of Intelligencer. We salute an old colleague on his final journey. (RJ)
*** TUESDAY, 16 APRIL 2002 ***
Lt Gen James R. Clapper, USAF (Ret),
Director of National Imagery and Mapping Agency
speaking from 11:30 to 12:30 on
The Current Role and Future Direction of NIMA in the War on Terrorism
Jeffrey T. Richelson, speaking from 1:30 - 2:30 on
CIA's Science and Technology: Past, Present and Future
[Richelson is author of the best-seller, The Wizards of Langley: Inside the CIA's
Directorate of Science and Technology]
This book will be available for purchase and signing by the author
Also available for
purchase and signing will be John H. Waller's new book,
The Devil's Doctor: Felix Kersten and the Secret Plot to Turn Himmler Against Hitler
TIME: Registration starts at 11:00 a.m..; CASH Bar 1100 - 1400; LUNCH 1230 - 1330
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$27.00 for Members and Guests Seating Limited to 300 -- No Payment at Door
WHERE: At Holiday Inn - Tyson's Corner Virginia
FOR YOUR CALENDARS - ALL DAY TOTAL IMMERSION SEMINAR/SYMPOSIUM....
AFIO BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYMPOSIUM
When: Thursday 16 May 02
Where: The Holiday Inn, Tyson's Corner
(Rte 123 & Rte 7), McLean Virginia.
Speakers from the White House, Department of Justice, FBI, CIA and Congress
have been invited, along with practicing professionals.
Theme: The Impact of Terrorism on Business
covering homeland and worldwide security, intelligence methods and counterintelligence practices
relevant to business and professional enterprises.
This one-day executive symposium is the fourth of an outstanding series of AFIO Business Intelligence conferences produced by two eminent AFIO Board members, Tom Spencer, Esq. , Chairman, assisted by Ted Shackley (CIA ret) , assuring the highest quality agenda and venue. It will be an exceptional opportunity for obtaining hard-hitting substantive information, legal and policy directions, professional contacts and useful networking.
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Early registration is recommended to avoid disappointment.
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