Weekly Intelligence Notes #11-02
18 March 2002

WIN #11-02, dated 18 March 2002

Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are produced and edited by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members, ISIS associates and WIN subscribers. RADM (ret) Don Harvey contributes articles to selected WINs.

AFIO BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYMPOSIUM will be conducted on Thursday 16 May 2002, featuring the "Impact of Terrorism on Business," again produced by two eminent members of the Board of Directors, Tom Spencer, Esq. (Chairman) assisted by Ted Shackley (CIA ret), guaranteeing highest quality of content and venue. (Section V)

AFIO members in Washington DC area – see Quarterly Luncheon announcement for Tuesday 16 April .(Section V)


CONTENTS of this WIN

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SECTION I - Current Intelligence

                CIA, DIA Warning on Afghanistan

                CIA Director's Estimate

                Cuban Mole in DIA Pleads Guilty

                Philippine Insurgency Warfare SITREP

SECTION II - Context and Precedence

                Scholars to "Anticipate the Threat"

                Counter-Terrorism Dependent on "Behind-The-Scenes" Work

SECTION III - Cyber Intelligence

                CIA and the Cookie Jar

                Federal Government Websites Scrub Ordered

SECTION IV - Books and Sources

                Waller:  The Devil's Doctor

                State:  Case of the Missing FRUS Volume

SECTION V - Letters and Announcements

                OPSEC Warning - NSA gram

                AFIO National Luncheon - Tuesday, 16 April 02

                AFIO Business Intelligence Symposium Thursday, 16 May 02


SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

CIA, DIA WARNING ON AFGHANISTAN -- The Directors of CIA and DIA testified before Congress on 19 March and warned that US forces in Afghanistan will face increased danger of attack by Taliban or Al Qaeda fighters as warmer weather returns. The warning underscored recent comments by US commanders that the Afghan war is far from over. In parallel, the US war-fighting posture and troop deployment in Central Asian republics are growing apace, stretching military resources, but solidifying, through the building of air and ground bases and infrastructures, US influence in this major oil and gas reservoir region of high geopolitical significance. If Afghanistan can be made stable and compliant, the planned oil and gas pipelines will be built. (Jonkers) (WPost 20 Mar 02, p. A1) (WTimes 20 Mar02 p. 1)

CIA DIRECTOR's ESTIMATE -- George Tenet testified before the Armed Services committee on Tuesday 19 March, providing testimony which supports direct action against Iraq or Iran by not ruling out any ties they may have to the events of September 11th and Al Qaeda. In other words, they can be made to fit under the anti-terrorist war umbrella.

            In regard to the overall war on terrorism, Tenet noted that Al Qaeda operations had been disrupted by the Afghan invasion, and that international cooperation had resulted in the arrest of more than 1,300 al Qaeda members in more than 70 states around the world. But the threat remains high. Al Qaeda is reassembling itself. The spread of nuclear weapon components is a danger that may not be detected by US intelligence. The transfer of long-range and cruise missile technology "has raised the threat to the United States from weapons of mass destruction delivery systems to a critical threshold." This is a strong and serious statement. Governments that export these types of weapons to states we do not like (the evil 3, or the rogue 7 etc) should take note - it is a warning shot across the bow.

            Reflecting the Bush administration's perspective on Iraq, Tenet said that Iraq has kept a "significant number of nuclear scientists, program documentation and probably some dual-use manufacturing infrastructure that could support a reinvigorated nuclear program." An onlooker from space might wonder if this means Iraq is to be transformed into an agricultural society - no scientists, no chemists, no documents, no industry?

            Reading the Director's statement on the CIA website is recommended. It is useful in judging what is political, what is omitted and what is real - for without a doubt, there is a real threat buried amidst all the fuss and feathers.

One might further speculate on a political perspective of grand strategy and design -- have we not seen all of this before? The emperor in Rome is disturbed by a restless local potentate, the Legions sally forth, crucify a few thousand people, bring the ruler to the Coliseum ("Justice") and keep the Empire stable. Pax Romana worked for hundreds of years, cruel and unjust maybe, affected by moral rot at the core, but allowing peaceful commerce, and notions of law and culture to flourish. Pax Americana is here - -not such a bad thing, perhaps, and maybe better than other 20th century models and alternatives. It may be implemented through the declared wars on terrorism, drugs, and (the infinitely fungible) "weapons of mass destruction." The intelligence estimates provide a blank check for worldwide action, either to address the causes or to bludgeon the manifestations. . (Jonkers) (Wash Post 20 Mar02 p. A1) (WashTimes 20 Mar02 p. 9) (Speeches and Testimony section of CIA website at www.cia.gov)

CUBAN MOLE IN DIA PLEADS GUILTY -- The senior DIA analyst for Cuba, Ms. Ana Belen Montes, 45, has pleaded guilty to being a spy for Cuba for the past 16 years, from 1985 until her arrest on 21 September 2001, expanding the repulsive roster of "moles" within the US Intelligence community. She pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit espionage, a charge that carries the death penalty. The prosecutors agreed to a 25-year sentence if she divulged all that had been transmitted. That process is now underway. Final sentence will be rendered 24 September 2002.

            There are always the questions of How and Why. Apparently she received information from Cuba by listening to high-frequency encrypted transmissions on short-wave radio. She send her purloined information out by using pay phones in Northwest Washington and Bethesda, transmitting encoded messages to an electronic page number.

            WHY the betrayal? Ms Montes, a US citizen of Puerto Rican descent, with a Masters degree from Johns Hopkins School of International Studies, said she was motivated by her moral outrage at US policy toward the impoverished island nation. According to her attorney, "She engaged in these activities because of her belief that US policy does not afford Cubans respect, tolerance and understanding... She was motivated by her desire to help the Cuban people and did not receive any compensation."

            Montes was believed to have been recruited by Cuban intelligence when she worked in the Freedom of Information office at the Justice Department between 1979 and 1985, and was asked by the Cubans to work at an agency that would provide more useful information to Cuba. Thus she was a Cuban spy when she entered DIA, a deep cover mole, who never, in any public utterance, offered any opinion on US policy towards Cuba. She just transmitted US classified information to Cuban intelligence.

            In the deplorable line-up of recent American traitors, Montes appears exceptional in two respects - as a woman, and as a "politically-motivated" spy - not after the money. It appears that she was identified through an undisclosed tip-off. Your speculation on that is as good as mine. The good part is, she was caught. Sad case. Good counter-intelligence. (Jonkers) WashPost 20 Mar02, p. A1) (WashTimes 20Mar02, p. A9)

PHILIPPINE INSURGENCY WARFARE SITREP -- Aided by satellite data and other modern intelligence and surveillance equipment brought in by American forces, 5,000 Philippine troops, supported by 160 Special Operations troopers (advisors), stepped up their offensive against some 300 Abu Sayyaf Muslim bandit guerillas (with reported links to al-Qaeda). on the island of Basilan . Two versions of US surveillance intelligence platforms, the GNAT unmanned aerial vehicle and the P-3 Orion naval reconnaissance aircraft, have been deployed to Mindanao to provide direct intelligence support..  Some 660 US troops are currently deployed in the Philippines as part of Washington's global campaign against terrorism. The US apparently plans to deploy another 600 troops for engineering and civic action in the area, pending Philippine government approval.  There is some danger of expansion of the conflict to include the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the largest Muslim separatist group in the Philippines. The MILF, which has over 1,000 armed men in Basilan, has warned of possible confrontations if the Americans venture into their territory. The MILF is currently observing a ceasefire with Manila. (Jonkers) (Agence France Presse, 17 March02) ( The Philippine Star 18 Mar02 /R. Pareno)
(http://news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,3970003%255E1702,00.html


SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENT

SCHOLARS TO "ANTICIPATE THE THREAT." -- Dr. Stephen Younger, Director of DoD's Threat Reduction Agency,

indicates that since one of his harder challenges is to "anticipate the threat," he is putting together scholars from arts and literature, history and psychology, religion, economics and sociology, along with professional "simulators" to create the most-likely models and scenarios of the future. Said he - -"We have missed every history-changing major surprise in the last 15 years: the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests and then the (9/11) terrorist attacks."

            The press article on the Doctor and his Agency gives no indication that he has felt it necessary to include any professional intelligence people in his effort to anticipate the threat and to avoid or warn of the next history-making surprise. One can hope his team of scholars not only will predict the next potential surprise but will do so with the precision the Doctor expects. In this regard one might note that the Indian/Pakistani nuclear tests hardly qualify as "history-changing," and both events had in any event been cited repeatedly in advance by intelligence as probable. Dr. Younger apparently belongs to the school of officialdom that claims intelligence should not only report a pregnancy and its gestation period but should also provide the precise delivery hour. (Harvey) ( Newsweek (Web exclusive) 12 Mar '02 by J. Barry and E. Thomas)

COUNTER-TERRORISM DEPENDENT ON "BEHIND-THE-SCENES" WORK -- The war against terrorism began with wiping out the infrastructure of the Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, but in phase Two of the war, the impact of the US work to help countries throughout the world fight terrorism will rival the importance of the military battles. As the President said recently, the US is expanding its commitment to the war -- to help "governments everywhere...remove the terrorist parasites that threaten their own countries and peace of the world."

            US officials have said as important as bombing the Al Qaeda is, the behind-the-scenes work of building up the global capacity to fight terrorism will determine the success of the war. The State Department's head of counter-terrorism, Ambassador Frank Taylor said "We will close the seams in which these groups operate -- and by that I don't just mean the physical places, but the cracks where intelligence isn't shared and [where] countries don't cooperate."

            One noted terrorism expert considers the break up of Al Qaeda's interests in Western Europe, through intense police and intelligence work, at least as significant as the smashing of Al Qaeda's training camps in Afghanistan. While some experts see US mission creep in the campaign, Paul Bremer, the chairman of the National Commission on Terrorism that reported to the Clinton administration in 2000, [and which predicted attacks like the 9/11 attacks] believes the war thus far has stayed on target in going after terrorists groups of global reach and has maintained goal consistency.

            These attitudes toward the counter-terrorism effort mean much of the work against terrorism will come through such non-telegenic campaigns as enhanced intelligence work, information sharing, and checks on financial operations. A current manifestation of this mature, in-for-the-long-run approach, might be the US pressure on Sudan to transfer an important Al Qaeda terrorist to Egypt for questioning and investigation of his role in an attempt on an Egyptian official's life several years ago, while patiently waiting for a US crack at him for his activities in the US. It is not inconceivable he will be another terrorist welcoming his sojourn in the Guantanamo Prison Camp. (Harvey)

(Christian Science Monitor 15 Mar '02, p. 5 by H. La Franchi


SECTION III -- CYBER INTELLIGENCE

CIA AND THE COOKIE JAR -- The CIA's Mike Stepp, manager of CIA's public Website, announced that tracking software known as a "cookie" was removed from one of its Web sites this week. Stepp said an outside company had redesigned the reading room Web site, which was posted to the Internet on Jan. 29. "Unbeknownst to us, it was loaded with some commercial off-the-shelf software used for Web analysis," Stepp said. The software included a cookie that tracked repeat visitors to the site. To make sure no improper information about site visitors had been recorded, two sets of log files would be destroyed. "The public does not need to be concerned that the CIA is tracking them. We're a bit busy to be doing that." A notice on the CIA Web site states: "The Central Intelligence Agency Web site does NOT use the 'cookies' that some Web sites use to gather and store information about your visits to their sites." Congress issued a study last summer that found 300 cookies still on the Web sites of 23 agencies despite the government ban.  On might consider that any legitimate researcher or citizen would find this a storm in a teacup. But others, for whatever reasons, might be apprehensive, since the keywords that one puts in can reveal a considerable amount about one's interests. In the current situation it does not seem such a terrible thing to have some tracking capability on a Government site, such as the CIA site. . (Jonkers) (AP 19 March02 //D. Ho) (http://www.pir.org/ciascan.html) (http://www.foia.ucia.gov/)

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WEBSITES SCRUB ORDERED -- The White House on 20 March ordered all federal agencies to scrub their websites of any sensitive information of "weapons of mass destruction" that might be useful to terrorists. The memo sent by White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card ordered an "immediate re-examination " of all public documents. "Government information, regardless of its age, that could reasonably be expected to assist in the development or use of weapons of mass destruction, including information about the current locations of stockpiles of nuclear materials that could be exploited for use in such weapons, should not be disclosed inappropriately." The review is also to include all "sensitive but unclassified" information. "The need to protect such sensitive information from inappropriate disclosure should be carefully considered on a case-by-case basis." There is legitimate concern about the implementation of this directive, however valid in its intent, since in these and other matters, common sense is usually scarce, and the CYA syndrome prevails. The agencies are to report to the Office of Homeland Security within 90 days on actions taken. (Jonkers) (WashTimes, 21 Mar 02, p.1)


SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES

THE DEVIL'S DOCTOR: Felix Kersten and the Secret Plot to turn Himmler against Hitler, by John H. Waller, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York 2002, ISBN 0-471-39672-9, with Appendices, Notes, Bibliography and Index. John Waller has done a great job of giving us an insiders look at the Nazi government at the top. His 'vehicle' is a fellow by the name of Felix Kersten, who. by one of those strange twists of history, became Heinrich Himmler's indispensable personal masseur. In that position Kersten, with connections to OSS and British intelligence, was able to influence Himmler. It is an outrageous story that provides exceptional insight in the personalities at the top of the Nazi machine.

            The story has a particular relevance to this reviewer, as Kersten played a role in preventing the resettlement of millions of "irreconcilable" Dutchmen to Eastern Poland and the Ukraine in 1941 and 1942. The Dutch hated the Nazi occupiers, and their opposition and riots in 1941 had enraged Hitler. Kersten saw the documentation, was appalled, and adopted the strategy of convincing Himmler that his health would be at serious risk if he undertook such a demanding task. Himmler finally decided to persuade Hitler that Germany's logistical system would be over-taxed by mass-moving people across the continent while fighting the war on the Eastern front. The operation was postponed till after the war. This tale was thoroughly investigated by the Dutch Government after the war, and validated. Kersten was appropriately honored.

            This vignette is only one of the many in the book. It was November 11, 1941, that Himmler emerged from the Fuhrer's presence and announced that the "destruction of the Jews is being actively planned." The occupied eastern territories "are to become free of Jews." These wartime orders in 1941 went well beyond the earlier decree in January 24, 1939, which intended to solve the 'Jewish question' by emigration and evacuation. Hitler's outbursts of temper and raving and ranting were often interpreted by his lieutenants as policy edicts to be carried out literally. The more one reads of what went on at the human level at the Nazi top, the more one is reminded of an insane asylum. How this Austrian misfit, Adolph Hitler, unemployed in Vienna in 1913, cast into the cauldrons of trench warfare mass murder in World War I, could then rise to the leadership of the German Reich, and driven by powerful paranoias, bring such misery to millions, particularly Poles, Russians, Germans, and the Jewish compatriots that lived among them, defies staggering odds. I highly recommend this book. John Waller is a respected established author who writes beautifully, on a topic we should not forget. It's only $21 when ordered through Amazon.com. (Jonkers)

THE CASE OF THE MISSING FRUS VOLUME -- An air of mystery now surrounds the suppressed State Department volume "Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS), 1964-1968, vol. XVI: Cyprus, Greece, Turkey." The volume was printed and ready for release two years ago, but its publication date has been repeatedly deferred under pressure from the Central Intelligence Agency. The CIA reportedly opposes disclosure of passages describing Agency intervention in Greek elections during the 1960s. The issue is said to be coming to a head this summer, with a decision either to release it, or for the entire 1,500 copy run to be pulped. (Jonkers) (Secrecy News 3/19)


SECTION V - LETTERS AND ANNOUNCEMENT

OPSEC WARNING - NSA gram -- "We have been advised that there is an active website that offers "career opportunities" for folks who have government security clearances. The site is trying to recruit personnel with active clearances promising to find jobs for them. As you know, DoD doesn't advertise the fact that we hold government clearances, and OPSEC would dictate that your name and personal data not be in any kind of a "database" that would label you as a cleared employee. Please advise your people not to register with this website. It (the site) has implications of a potential hostile intelligence service at work, a perfect opportunity to possibly blackmail people with credit or other problems and also lure cleared employees into espionage."

            Please note that the statement that a hostile intelligence service was involved has since been retracted and contradicted. The site referenced is that of a businessman trying to provide a service, since many agencies are looking for cleared personnel.

            Nevertheless, since WIN #10 did include a similar employment offer for cleared HUMINT administrative personnel, AFIO members are reminded to exercise caution. AFIO will put additional safeguards in place, but we ultimately operate on the presumption that our professional members, particularly those with clearances, are wise to the world and fully capable of making their own judgments. The NSA OPSEC Warning is a reminder. Like the ol' police sarge used to say on Hill St. Blues: "Be careful out there." Caveat emptor. (Jonkers) (WashTimes 21March02) (MR courtesy Rudolph G. and David M.)

THE NEXT AFIO NATIONAL LUNCHEON QUICKLY APPROACHING

*** TUESDAY, 16 APRIL 2002 ***

Lt Gen James R. Clapper, USAF (Ret),
Director of National Imagery and Mapping Agency

speaking from 11:30 to 12:30 on
The Current Role and Future Direction of NIMA in the War on Terrorism

Jeffrey T. Richelson
, speaking from 1:30 - 2:30 on
CIA's Science and Technology: Past, Present and Future

[Richelson is author of the best-seller, The Wizards of Langley: Inside the CIA's Directorate of Science and Technology]
This book will be available for purchase and signing by the author

Also available for purchase and signing will be John H. Waller's new book,
The Devil's Doctor: Felix Kersten and the Secret Plot to Turn Himmler Against Hitler

TIME:  Registration starts at 11:00 a.m..; CASH Bar 1100 - 1400; LUNCH 1230 - 1330

RESERVE / PAY:  Credit Card [Visa, MC, or AMEX] Reservations to AFIO at afio@afio.com or via fax at 703 991-1278
Indicate names of guests, if any, for badges.  Provide full number, expiration date, and billing address.
Reservations and Payment may be phoned in to 703 790-0320.  Or mailed to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave #303A, McLean, VA 22101.
$27.00 for Members and Guests Seating Limited to 300 -- No Payment at Door

WHERE:  At Holiday Inn - Tyson's Corner Virginia

Generous Free Parking Available


FOR YOUR CALENDARS - ALL DAY TOTAL IMMERSION SEMINAR/SYMPOSIUM....

AFIO BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYMPOSIUM
When: Thursday 16 May 02
Where: The Holiday Inn, Tyson's Corner
(Rte 123 & Rte 7), McLean VA
Speakers from the White House, Department of Justice, FBI, CIA and Congress
have been invited, along with practicing professionals. 
Theme: The Impact of Terrorism on Business 
covering homeland and worldwide security, intelligence methods and counterintelligence practices
relevant to business and professional enterprises.
This one-day executive symposium is the fourth of an outstanding series of AFIO Business Intelligence conferences produced by two eminent AFIO Board members, Tom Spencer, Esq., Chairman, assisted by Ted Shackley (CIA ret) , assuring the highest quality agenda and venue. It will be an exceptional opportunity for obtaining hard-hitting substantive information, legal and policy directions,
professional contacts and useful networking.
To Register by e-mail: afio@afio.com - provide name, title, organization, address, phone and e-mail contact numbers. 
To Pay: You may charge the registration fee
to your VISA, MasterCard or American Express card via e-mail to afio@afio.com
or fax (703 790 0264).
Alternatively you may register by MAIL and enclose your check. Address:
AFIO/Symposium, 6723 Whittier Avenue, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533.
Registration fee, including lunch and parking, is $225.
An early discount of $50 to this fee is applicable to registrations received before 30 March 02.

A special discount rate of $135 is applicable to AFIO members (individual and corporate) and their guests, to professors and students, and to members of collegial intelligence professional organizations (SCIP, OPS, NIP, NMIA).
Early registration is recommended to avoid disappointment.


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