Weekly Intelligence Notes #30-02
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are produced and edited by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members, ISIS associates and WIN subscribers. RADM (ret) Don Harvey contributes articles to selected WINs.
CONTENTS of this WIN
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INTELLIGENCE BUDGET TO REACH RECORD HIGH IN 2003 - -Intelligence spending is likely to reach a record high level in the coming fiscal year, exceeding an annual expenditure of $35 billion. The House version of the 2003 intelligence authorization bill, adopted early on July 25, "recommends substantially more money, many billions of dollars more, than was provided for the current fiscal year," said Rep. Nancy Pelosi, ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee. "If the amounts recommended in the bill are appropriated, the [intelligence] community will receive the largest one-year increase in funding on a percentage basis in at least the last two decades." A Democratic aide told reporters the new spending level would be 25 percent higher than the amount approved last year, or well over $35 billion. (Jonkers) (Secrecy News 26 July 02 / S. Aftergood) ( http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2002_cr/h072402.html )
FBI INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS UNIT CREATED -- The FBI has formed a new Intelligence Analysis unit The new analysts, several of whom have worked for the CIA, are reportedly interpreting raw intelligence in a way new to the FBI, with an emphasis on warning and on disrupting terrorists' plans well before the FBI can meet the legal standards for arrests and prosecutions. According to Pat Damuro, the FBI's Assistant Director of Counter-Terrorism, these analysts aren't focused on specific cases but are "looking over the horizon" for emerging threats and trends. (Jonkers) (USA Today, 25 Jul 02, p. 11)
IRAN DEPLOYS BALLISTIC MISSILE -- The US reportedly no longer considers Iran's Shahab-3 missile as 'under development' but considers it as operational and deployed. The medium range ballistic missile has had a troubled test program, with several flight test missiles exploding during their boost phase, but now, regardless of their unreliability, at least a few missiles are considered to be "likely deployed." Shahab-3 has a range of 800 miles according to US intelligence, making it capable of hitting most of Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Not mentioned in the off-the-record statements to the press, the missile is obviously also capable of hitting Iran's principal enemy (at least up to now), it's neighbor, Iraq. The state of hostility and reciprocal threat-perception between these two states is almost universally overlooked in US political media coverage of the region.
The Shahab-3's design is based on the North Korean No Dong missile, and it incorporates basic old conventional Chinese and Russian technology. Israeli intelligence is said to assess the missile as having a much longer range of 1,860 miles. If the missile actually has this range, it could put Tel Aviv, Cairo and Athens at risk. Whether this difference in estimates is based on hard facts or political needs is undetermined.
If the US government no longer considers the Shahab-3 as experimental, but instead as a weapon that needs to be factored into US operational planning, it would reflect "a ratcheting up" of official public media concern about the Iran's weapons-of-mass destruction program. Iran's alleged pursuit of a missile program, in conjunction with its reported support of a terrorist organization active against Israel in Lebanon (Hezbollah), are in line with the US Administration's designation of Iran as one of the "axis of evil" nations. In a "future" perspective, this means that after Iraq's coming defeat, it will be Iran's turn. A cold-eyed political assessment would consider that bringing these two states to heel will assure our access to Central Asian oil and gas supplies and remove any potential regional threat to Israel. (Jonkers / Harvey) ( Bloomberg.com, 9 Jul'02, T. Capaccio)
AL-QAEDA LEADER ARRESTED IN PAKISTAN -- An alleged key aide to Osama Bin Laden was arrested by Pakistan Intelligence in early July, reportedly with assistance from FBI agents in Karachi. A team of agents raided an apartment building and arrested Sheikh Ahmad Saleem, a Sudanese, who is believed to be in charge of finances for Al-Qaeda in Pakistan and knows how money is collected by Al-Qaeda cells and businesses operating around the world. Saleem was a specialist in physical disguises and had eluded arrest in more than 35 raids in the area to capture him. He was transported to a U.S. Navy ship in the Arabian Sea where he is being interrogated. It is said that a significant amount of intelligence has been gained as a result of the operation. (Jonkers) (25 July 2002/ http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/ ) (PJK)
U.S.-RUSSIA WORKING GROUP ON COUNTER-TERRORISM MEETS -- The seventh US-Russia Counter-Terrorism Working Group meeting took place on 26 July at the US Naval Academy. This was a meeting with an expanded agenda and high-level representation. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage was the senior US representative, while the Russian delegation was led by the Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister, Vyacheslav Trubnikov. The meeting was the first one with a broadened mandate endorsed by presidents Bush and Putin in Moscow, including wide-ranging discussions on cooperation in combating nuclear, biological and chemical terrorism, weapons proliferation and narcotics. Counter-terrorism in Afghanistan were discussed, but also cooperation in other regions, such as Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East. After the previous working group meeting, the sixth, held in Washington last February, a joint statement was released that read: "US-Russian military cooperation as part of counter-terrorist operations in Afghanistan has been invaluable and unprecedented, and has directly contributed to the successes realized in the global war on terrorism." Cooperation apparently is being extended from tactical and military to political and global. The intelligence component of this cooperation is unknown. (Jonkers) (WashTimes 27 July 02, page A5)
'NOVEMBER 17' TERRORIST GROUP MEMBERS ARRESTED IN GREECE -- For almost 30 years the terrorist group 'November 17',named after the date of a violent student uprising in 1973 that helped bring down a seven-year military junta in 1974, has evaded capture. The main November 17 assassination targets over this time period have been US and UK military and intelligence officers, Turkish diplomats and Greek businessmen. Turkish intelligence has long suspected that 'November 17' had ties with the Turkish Marxist group Dev Sol, also responsible for scores of killings ( including U.S. citizens) since the 1970s. The US State department has long listed 'November 17' as one of its most wanted terrorist organizations.
The anti-American radical left-wing and extremist national chauvinist group has operated with seeming impunity in Greece throughout the 20-year-rule of the Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement, known as Pasok. 'November 17' proclamations often glorified and uncorrupted form of communism and denounced any perceived threats top Greek identity or culture.
Since the most recent break in the case on 29 June, the police have arrested 13 suspected group members, and charged 10, including one suspected of having helped orchestrate the assassination of Richard Welch, the CIA. station chief in Athens, in 1975. But a 20-year statute of limitations has already prevented Greek prosecutors from leveling murder charges against Pavlos Serifis, a 46-year-old telephone operator accused of being a top boss of the November 17 group. The court proceeding confirmed what U.S. authorities had feared -- that no one may ever stand trial directly for the ambush killing of Richard Welch. Instead, individuals such as Serifis face general terrorist and weapons accusations, that could still bring a life sentence.
Why did it take so long to break the case? The evidence so far suggest the group was able to maintain its secrecy through the strength of family bonds. But Paul Bremer, who led a congressionally mandated commission on global terrorism in 2000, has noted that "there may have been affinities between the radical leftist terrorists and the (left-wing) political elite that emerged after the military junta." In 1976, for example, the Greek police detained a suspected member of the group after finding his wallet at a construction site that was believed to have been used in an assassination. "Orders came from high up that he be released," said a former American agent, who was stationed in Athens at the time.
The assassination of a British brigadier, Stephen Saunders, two summers ago brought renewed heavy pressure from the United States, Britain and other European Union partners for Greece to stamp out 'November 17' before the Summer Olympics, planned for Athens in 2004. Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis subsequently went on national television, vowing that he would "completely crush" November 17,
An American official familiar with the investigation cautioned against raising hopes that the group, long believed to include fewer than two dozen members, had been crushed by the arrests thus far. "There could be more cells involved in this organization than we think." The American Embassy in Athens remains on high security alert. Four Americans have been murdered by this group. That bill remains to be paid. One trusts actions are ongoing. (Jonkers) (NYTimes 23 Jul02 // A. Carassava) (http://sg.news.yahoo.com/020725/1/30w7s.html) (AP 25 July 02 / B. Murphy) (WashTimes 27 July02, p. A8 / B. Murphy)
AL-QAEDA CYBER ALARM -- There is a 50% chance that the next time al-Qaeda terrorists strike the United States, their attack will include a cyber attack, warned Rep. Lamar Smith R, Texas. In closed-door briefings for members of Congress, Smith said officials from federal law enforcement and intelligence-gathering agencies disclosed that al-Qaeda operatives have been exploring U.S. Web sites and probing the electronic infrastructure of American companies in search of ways to disable power and water supplies, disrupt phone service and damage other parts of the critical infrastructure. The US anticipates a year of internet terror. (Levine's Newsbits 26 Jul 02) (http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/computersecurity/2002-07-26-fcw-attacks_x.htm) ( http://www.vnunet.com/News/1133913 )
BIN LADEN HUNT ENTERS CYBERSPACE -- US intelligence agents in pursuit of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden are now said to be monitoring websites for messages to his followers. Counter-terrorism experts reportedly believe they have found markers or code words that indicate bin Laden has been attempting to signal to supporters that he is alive.(Levine) http://www.vnunet.com/News/1133909
HIGH-TECH MILITARY ID CARDS --Future versions of military identification cards will encode information about fingerprints or 'other physical characteristics' (iris, retina, facial features, finger & hand shapes, etc.), the Pentagon's latest move to tighten security. The newest cards already have information such as name, rank and serial number on a computer chip embedded in the card under the user's picture. Officials hope to distribute the high-tech ID cards to more than 3 million military and civilian Defense Department workers in the next several years. (Levine ) (http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/computersecurity/2002-07-26-fingerprint-cards_x.htm)
THE SHADOW WARRIORS: A History of the Imperial Japanese Army's Elite Intelligence School, by Stephen Mercado, Brassey's 2002, with Notes, Bibliography and Index. ISBN 1-57488-443-3. From 1938 till 1945, the Nakano School trained more than 2,000 men in intelligence collection, propaganda and irregular warfare. They operated in Burma, India, the Philippines, Okinawa, and finally in Japan, and this book tells their stories, in victory and defeat. Written by a former CIA analyst and Asia expert, and based on archival research and the memoirs of Japanese veterans, this book sheds light on a special niche of intelligence activities in World War II and postwar Japanese affairs. For those with a historical bent, well worth reading. (Jonkers)
TERRORISM TODAY, by Christopher Harmon, Frank Cass Publishers, Portland, OR, 2000. ISBN 0 7146 8059 1 (paper) with glossary, bibliography and index. This is a big-picture overview of world violence and provides strategy recommendations for the future. Although written two years ago, before 9/11 changed our perspectives, Professor Harmon's presentation at the AFIO Business Intelligence Symposium last May gave evidence of the relevance of his ideas. Recommended for those who look at patterns, trends and other aspects of terrorism. (Jonkers)
OBSERVATION -- Chris writes: Ref. WIN article 'Reputed KGB Spy Dies In Moscow'. As an active duty intelligence officer, I recall how vexed we were when we (i.e. the U.S. Government) lost so many spies (foreigners working for us behind the Iron Curtain) during the 1985-1986 timeframe. Some of those mentioned in this article were partially responsible. We also found out some years later that the head of the then West German counter intelligence service (the agency set up to catch spies) had been working for both the Soviets and East Germans for years. The Cold War seem to have both sides coming and going from time to time. In the end, however, we had some fantastic success (that remain under wraps) and we won the Cold War.
HISTORY -- Professor Cody, Oxford University, writes to ask for research leads -- I am currently trying to track down scholars who have worked on the Abwehr and the events which led to the 7-page memorandum from Kaltenbrunner to Hitler of February 7th, 1944. A specialist in this material (i.e. German diplomats in WWII Turkey) might be able to help me find out more about someone mentioned very briefly in Heinz Hoehne’s book on Canaris: Major Gottfried Schenker-Angerer. If you have any suggestions as to who might help with regard to sources or published/unpublished material relating to these events, I would be very pleased to hear from you. (Sebastian Cody, Visiting Fellow, University of Oxford at email@example.com)
SEEKING EDITORS -- A major Bibliography-in-progress seeks Editors/Bibliophiles. Oak Knoll Press is preparing "The International Bibliography of Cold War Espionology" and has an intelligence literature checklist of over 20,000 titles. They are seeking individuals willing to be editors to separate fiction from non-fiction, and to compose insightful, brief annotations. Some 7,500 citations on specific books are still needed. Contact John von Hoelle, Director Oak Knoll Press, at firstname.lastname@example.org or tel (302) 328 7232. Website is www.oakknoll.com .
CONFERENCE -- BUSINESS
OPPORTUNITIES AND PITFALLS IN TODAY'S CHINA: Risk Assessments from the American Intelligence
profession. Two conferences will be conducted by the National Leadership Forum
on Global Challenges, sponsored by the American Management Association (AMA), on
11 October in New York, and 3 December in San Francisco. Fees run $795 for AMA
members, and $995 for non-members. The Conference is conducted under the
leadership of an eminent CIA veteran I have known for many years, and will be
first-class. For registration format, see http://www.amanet.org/events/china/index.htm.
Register (1) by the web at: http://www.amanet.org/events/china/register.htm;
(2) by email email@example.com -
Indicate Meeting No. 3890, (3) by phone 1 800 262 9699 (Jonkers).
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