AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #16-18 dated 1 May 2018

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CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY

Section IV - Jobs, Obituaries

Jobs

Obituaries

Section V - Events

Upcoming AFIO Events

Other Upcoming Events from Advertisers, Corporate Sponsors, and Others

For Additional AFIO and other Events two+ months or more... Calendar of Events 

WIN CREDITS FOR THIS ISSUE: The WIN editors thank the following special contributors:  ec, mh, km, gh, mk, rd, fm, kc, jm, mr, jg, th and fwr. They have contributed one or more stories used in this issue.

The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.
CAVEATS: IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse research inquiries, career announcements, or job offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding, and should verify the source independently before supplying any resume, career data, or personal information.]
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Call for Papers
The University of Texas at Austin Announces the 2018
"Bobby R. Inman Award" for Student Scholarship on Intelligence

The Intelligence Studies Project of The University of Texas at Austin announces the fourth annual competition recognizing outstanding student research and writing on topics related to intelligence and national security. The winner of the "Inman Award" will receive a cash prize of $5000, with two semifinalists each receiving a cash prize of $2500. This competition is open to unpublished work by undergraduate and graduate students enrolled in degree programs at accredited U.S. higher education institutions during the 2017-18 academic year. The deadline for submitting papers is June 30, 2018.
The Intelligence Studies Project was established at The University of Texas at Austin in 2013 as a joint venture of the Clements Center for National Security and the Robert Strauss Center for International Security and Law with the LBJ School of Public Affairs. The Project's mission is to improve understanding of intelligence activities and institutions through research, courses, and public events bringing intelligence practitioners together with scholars, students, and the public.
The Bobby R. Inman Award recognizes more than six decades of distinguished public service by Bobby R. Inman, Admiral, U.S. Navy (Ret.). Admiral Inman served in multiple leadership positions in the U.S. military, intelligence community, private industry, and at The University of Texas. His previous intelligence posts include Director of Naval Intelligence, Vice-Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Director of the National Security Agency, and Deputy Director of Central Intelligence. He continues to serve as a teacher, advisor, and mentor to students, faculty members, and current government officials while occupying the Lyndon B. Johnson Centennial Chair in National Policy at the LBJ School of Public Affairs. His areas of teaching and research are focused on political, economic, and military activities, policy processes and institutions, international affairs and diplomacy, and intelligence and national security.
Additional information about the Inman Award competition and the Intelligence Studies Project is available here.

____________________________________

 
     

NOTICES

 

Filling Up...
AFIO's Spring Luncheon

Friday, 1 June 2018
features three keynote speakers

    Event is closed to members of the media and non-U.S. citizens.
  Richard W. Hoch, Deputy Director of CIA for Analysis,
on "The Directorate of Analysis and the Future of Analysis"
[Remarks are off the record. No recording, quoting, or media permitted]
  Bruce Riedel, CIA and Brookings, on
"The Future of US-Saudi Relations,"
based on his book,
Kings and Presidents: Saudi Arabia
and the United States Since FDR
.
  R. Scott Decker, FBI, on Recounting the Anthrax Attacks:
Terror, the Amerithrax Task Force,
and the Evolution of Forensics in the FBI
.
  Badge pick-up at 9:15 to 10 a.m.
First speaker, Scott Decker, at 10 a.m.;
Bruce Riedel
at 11 a.m. and CIA DD/A Hoch at 1 p.m.
     
  Register here to ensure a seat.
     
 
Location: DoubleTree-Hilton, Tysons Corner, VA [formerly the Crowne Plaza], at 1960 Chain Bridge Rd, McLean, VA 22102.

Books of the Week

Principled SpyingPrincipled Spying: The Ethics of Secret Intelligence
by David Omand and Mark Phythian
(Georgetown University Press, Mar 2018)

"Most people agree that a safe society means that intelligence gathering is necessary but too few agree on its limits in a free society. This valuable book, a debate between two informed and experienced experts, provides perceptive insights to help both the public and the policy makers come to the right decisions." — George Robertson, Secretary General, NATO 1999-2003, UK Secretary of State for Defence 1997-99

"If spying is the world's second oldest profession, or perhaps the oldest, ethical issues it raises are almost as old. But as this wonderful conversation between an eminent practitioner and a senior scholar displays, those have been reshaped by the long transition from royal sovereigns to popular sovereignty, and sharpened more recently by the focus on terrorism and the rise of big data. The former both makes "war" continuous and puts enormous pressure on warning. That pressure then stresses ethics in familiar collection, like interrogation, but also requires searching through big data sets, including information about innocent citizens. for tips about would-be terrorists. Omand and Phythian creatively apply the principles of just war to intelligence, and make a strong argument for a new "social compact," one that benefits from the paradox of Edward Snowden's revelations, which were very damaging but also sparked a real conversation about privacy and other ethical issues inherent in intelligence in this era that is neither peace nor war." — Gregory Treverton, former chair of the US National Intelligence Council

Book may be ordered here.


The Perfect WeaponThe Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage, and Fear in the Cyber Age
by David E. Sanger
(Crown Books, Jun 2018)

New York Times Washington correspondent Sanger looks at how cyberwarfare might be influencing elections, threatening national security, and bringing us to the brink of war.
Behind the Sony hack, the mysterious power outages around the world, the disappearance of thousands of sensitive poorly guarded personnel records by America's Office of Personnel Management, and possible Russian influence operations around the time of the 2016 presidential election, are traces of a new weapon. In less than a decade, cyberwarfare has displaced terrorism and nuclear attacks as the greatest focus and danger to American national security.
Cheap to acquire, difficult to defend against, and designed to shield their user's identities complicating retaliation, these weapons are capable of a range of offensive tactics which can take us short of war. From disruption to theft to damage of essential infrastructure. The vulnerability of those systems is an equally urgent matter yet America replaces distracted and complacent: American companies like Apple and Cisco claim allegiance to no government to continue selling secure products around the globe yet US intelligence agencies want and need the help of such companies to defend against future cyberattacks.

Book may be ordered here.



Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Unsupervised Intelligence Service Worries Bosnian MPs.  Opposition MPs say parliament's lack of control over the work of the country's intelligence agency is worrying.

The joint committee of Bosnia's state-level parliament, which supervises the work of the Intelligence Security Agency, has been without a chair for months because of political disagreements.

"This situation is becoming absurd because there is no parliamentary control over this agency, so we can not know what it is doing," Dusanka Majkic, an MP from the opposition Alliance of Social Democrats SNSD, told BIRN.

Majkic expressed concerns that, in this situation, it is impossible for MPs to know who is under eavesdropping or under similar surveillance measures.  [Read More:  Lakic/balkaninsight/26Apr2018]

National Ground Intelligence Center Exec. Director Retires After 50 Years of Service.  Daniel (Dan) Morris, Executive Director, National Ground Intelligence Center, Charlottesville, Va., retires on April 28 after nearly half a century of military and civilian service, leaving behind personal memories and indelible impressions on others across the tactical, operational, and strategic landscape of the Army, Defense and National Intelligence communities.

"As with many people transitioning from full-time service to retirement, there's a certain amount of nostalgia in leaving because I enjoy the work that I do and genuinely believe in the mission, and over the last 48 years my regrets are few," Morris said. "Serving my country is an awe-inspiring, humbling experience, whether as a Soldier protecting the homeland, or a senior executive guiding the direction of an agency's mission, and I'm truly fortunate to have been a small part of it."

For the past 12 years at the National Ground Intelligence Center, Morris was responsible for oversight of strategic planning, programming, budget execution/performance integration, and change management. He provided operational and enterprise advice to the NGIC Commander, and oversaw all NGIC strategic planning, programming and budgeting activities. As the senior civilian in the Center, he guided performance management and professional development of the civilian workforce, including Senior Executive personnel.

Born and raised in Albemarle County as the eldest son in a family of 10 children, Dan spent most of his pre-adult life living and working on farms in the area. He graduated from Albemarle High School, Class of '66.  [Read More:  nbc29/26Apr2018]

New Zealand Security Intelligence Service Recruiting New Spies.  New Zealand's spy agency is on the hunt for some new recruits.

The Security Intelligence Service has launched a new recruitment drive, which director Rebecca Kitteridge says will hopefully increase diversity in the force.

"We want to broaden the diversity of people who are working for us," she told Newshub. "We want people from Māori and Pasifika communities, from Asian communities, from the broad diversity that New Zealand has."

Newcomers to the country may need to wait a bit though, as applicants need to have been a citizen for at least 10 years.  [Read More:  newshub/28Apr2018]

Next MI6 Chief Could be First Woman to Hold the Role.  The next chief of Britain's foreign intelligence service could be the first woman to hold the role in the history of the agency, which was formed in 1909.

Current head of MI6, Alex Younger has personally selected a female candidate as the frontrunner on a shortlist of potential successors, according to a Sunday Times report that cites an anonymous intelligence source.

There is no immediate vacancy and shortlist of potential successors has been drawn up to provide a smooth transition in the event of change.
 
The frontrunner is understood to have proven to have "strong operational capabilities" as well as experience of running agent networks overseas.  [Read More:  Crisp/telegraph/29Apr2018]

Peter Dutton Confirms Push to Expand Powers of Cyber Spy Agency to Monitor Domestic Threats.  A push to expand the powers of the country's cyber spy agency to collect intelligence on Australians is being backed by Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton.

The controversial idea to restructure the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) is strongly opposed by some in Cabinet who argue it is not necessary.

The ABC understands Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo and Defence secretary Greg Moriarty have discussed giving ASD a domestic role with three elements.

Firstly, ASD's unrivalled ability to shut down computer systems - a so-called "cyber effects" power - could be used within Australia, targeting organised criminals, terrorists and child pornographers.  [Read More:  Greene, Probyn/abc/1May2018]

Mattis: Criminal Charges Likely Amid Probe into Intelligence Contract.  Defense Secretary James Mattis told lawmakers Thursday it's probable that federal officials will file criminal charges as part of an ongoing investigation into a series of contracts the Army issued to help establish security forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The contracts were supposed to be used to help those nations build their own intelligence gathering capabilities, but audits thus far have pointed to tens of millions of dollars in potential fraud connected to at least one vendor, including for luxury vehicles and six-figure salaries paid to its employees who performed no discernible work.

The ongoing criminal investigation involves a series of agreements, beginning in 2007, that wound up costing $458 million.

According to an audit the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction published in July, the lion's share of those funds went to a single subcontractor, New Century Consulting (NCC). But SIGAR concluded that because of poor recordkeeping and a reliance on vendors to grade their own performance, it's almost impossible to determine whether the contracts' objectives were ever met.  [Read More:  Serbu/federalnewsradio/27Apr2018]

White House may restrict Chinese researchers over spying fears - Students arrive with tech theft shopping lists. The Trump administration, concerned about China's growing technological prowess, is considering strict measures to block Chinese citizens from performing sensitive research at American universities and research institutes over fears they may be acquiring intellectual secrets.

It sounds like something out of a science-fiction movie: In April, China is said to have tested an invisibility cloak that would allow ordinary fighter jets to suddenly vanish from radar screens. This advancement, which could prove to be a critical intelligence breakthrough, is one that U.S. officials fear China may have gained in part from a Chinese researcher who roused suspicions while working on a similar technology at a Duke University laboratory in 2008. The researcher, who was investigated by the FBI but was never charged with a crime, ultimately returned to China, became a billionaire and opened a thriving research institute that worked on some projects related to those he studied at Duke.

In the United States, research institutes look particularly vulnerable to espionage. According to Defense Department statistics, nearly a quarter of all foreign efforts to obtain sensitive or classified information in 2014 were routed through academic institutions. At a congressional hearing in April, Michelle Van Cleave, a former national counterintelligence executive, said the freedom and openness of the United States made the country a "spy's paradise." Chinese and Russian agents both come to the U.S. with "detailed shopping lists," she added. [Read More: Bradshaw, Swanson/SeattleTimes/30Apr2018]


Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

The Spy Who Came Home.  Shortly after an evening nap, Patrick Skinner drove to the police station in the Third Precinct in Savannah, Georgia, wearing ill-fitting body armor. It was late December, and bitterly cold, and he figured that the weather would bring fewer shootings than usual but more cases of domestic abuse. "Summertime is the murder time," he said. He had come to work early to tape together his body camera, because the clasp was broken.

The shift supervisor - a tall corporal with a slight paunch - stood at a lectern. "Good mornin', mornin', mornin'," he said. It was 10:31 P.M. Speaking through a wad of tobacco, he delivered a briefing on criminal activities from earlier in the day, then listed vehicles that had been reported stolen. "Look out for a cooter-colored truck," he said.

The walls of the briefing room were sparsely decorated. There was a map of each beat within the precinct - an area, more than half the size of Manhattan, that includes Savannah's most violent neighborhoods - along with a display case of various drug samples and a whiteboard listing police cars that were out of commission. One had overheated, two had been wrecked in accidents, and two others had broken headlights. A sixth car was labelled "unsafe for road."

“What does "unsafe for road' mean?" a cop asked.  [Read More:  Taub/newyorker/7May2018]

The Hunt: Spy Agency Went After ISIS Using Cyber - What Does That Mean?  GCHQ, a British spy agency, said recently that it took the unprecedented step of launching a cyberattack against ISIS.

In this week's edition of The Hunt with WTOP national security correspondent J.J. Green, Robin Simcox, the Margaret Thatcher Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, says this was a significant development.  [Read More:  Green/wtop/25Apr2018]

Inside the Dictator's Mind: How U.S. Intelligence Profiles the Secretive Kim Jong Un.  U.S. intelligence experts are trying to build a profile of Kim Jong Un to give President Donald Trump a competitive edge in one of the most consequential summits since the Cold War, but they face a huge challenge - figuring out a secretive North Korean ruler few people know much about.

Following a long tradition of arming U.S. presidents with political and psychological dossiers of foreign leaders ahead of critical negotiations, government analysts are gathering every new bit of information they can glean about Kim and making adjustments to earlier assessments of what makes him tick, U.S. officials told Reuters.

They will rely in part on the impressions drawn by CIA director Mike Pompeo, who just weeks ago became the first Trump administration official to meet Kim. Pompeo, Trump's pick to become secretary of state, came back from Pyongyang privately describing the young North Korean leader as "a smart guy who's doing his homework" for the meetings, according to one U.S. official, who described Pompeo's personal view of Kim for the first time.

The profile will also include intelligence gathered in past debriefings of others who have interacted with Kim, including ex-NBA star Dennis Rodman, Kim's former classmates at a Swiss boarding school and South Korean envoys, other U.S. officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.  [Read More:  Reuters/haaretz/29Apr2018]

How Intelligence Analysts Can Improve Critical Thinking and Writing Skills.  Intelligence analysts must be critical thinkers. They need to be able to synthesize disparate information received from multiple sources, and use that information to anticipate and prevent illicit activities including terrorism, human trafficking, and organized criminal elements.

Analysts must also be strong writers, able to share information both clearly and concisely. Ultimately, intelligence analysts are responsible for preparing comprehensive written reports, presentations, maps, or charts based on their research, collection, and analysis of intelligence data.

In my years of being an intelligence analyst for the U.S. federal government (civilian and contractor), active-duty military and reserve, I have seen my share of analysts and their work, good and bad. Throughout my 26-year career, I cannot pretend that I was always a stellar analyst myself, however, as the years went by I learned a lot and greatly improved my critical thinking and writing skills. How was this accomplished? By proactively reading more, writing more and thinking more.

When intelligence failures happen, the failures are often blamed on the lack of imagination by the analysts, as in the 9/11 Commission Report. The importance of critical thinking has been heard again and again from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the U.S. intelligence community at large, and many of the professional schools such as the National Intelligence University, Central Intelligence Agency University, and Federal Bureau of Investigation Academy, just to name a few.  [Read More:  Russo/inpublicsafety/24Apr2018]

The CIA Cleared Her Book Twice. Then It Took It Back. Why? It's a Secret.  Sarah Carlson spent seven years analyzing the attack plans of Middle Eastern terrorist groups for the CIA. Now the agency is trying to stop Carlson from writing a book about one tumultuous aspect of her service.

Carlson is set to file a lawsuit demanding the agency permit her to go forward with a book that touches upon her time as an analyst for the CIA's highly secretive Counterterrorism Center. The bureau within the CIA that ensures former officials don't publish official secrets, the Publications Review Board, already cleared her manuscript twice.

But in November, two years after Carlson first submitted her manuscript, the CIA board told her that "the entire manuscript reveals classified information," according to a copy of her imminent lawsuit provided to The Daily Beast. It's even trying to stop Carlson from publishing her intended book title. 

The book, Carlson told The Daily Beast, doesn't reveal a scandal. She doesn't "say anything negative about the CIA," she said. "It's very focused on a specific year and what happened there during a dangerous environment, a crisis and what we did in response."  [Read More:  Ackerman/thedailybeast/1May2018]



Section III - COMMENTARY

ANALYSIS: NZ Lacks Informed Public Debate on Spying.  When the New Zealand Security intelligence Service was established more than 60 years ago, the main concern was Cold War operatives on New Zealand soil. Now the intelligence and security agencies are more worried about Russian state-sponsored cyber-hacking.

In the rapidly changing landscape, both the watchdog tasked with independently overseeing the intelligence and security agencies, and the general public, need to get up-to-speed on the issues facing the intelligence and security world.

Last week, Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) boss Andrew Hampton said there were signs New Zealand organisations have been directly threatened by Russian state-sponsored hacking.

"Attributing cyber incidents to particular countries is something that is carefully considered and is a step not taken lightly," he added.  [Read More:  Walters/stuff/27Apr2018]

Michael Hayden: The End of Intelligence.  In 1994 during the height of the Bosnian civil war, when I was head of intelligence for American forces in Europe, I walked through the ruined streets of Sarajevo. A city of once-beautiful steeples, onion-shaped domes and minarets had been devastated by Serbian artillery in the hills rising above the Miljacka River. I wondered what manner of man could pick up a sniper rifle and shoot former neighbors lining up for scarce water at a shuttered brewery.

What struck me most, though, was not how Sarajevans were different from us, but how much they weren't. This had obviously been a cultured, tolerant, vibrant place that had been ripped asunder by the conflict pitting Muslim Bosniaks against Christian Serbs and Croats.

The veneer of civilization, I concluded, was quite thin - a natural thought for an intelligence officer whose profession trends pessimistic and whose work is consumed by threats and dangers. Over the years I had learned that the traditions and institutions that protect us from living Hobbesian "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short" lives are inherently fragile and demand careful tending. In America today, they are under serious stress.

It was no accident that the Oxford Dictionaries' word of the year in 2016 was "post-truth," a condition where facts are less influential in shaping opinion than emotion and personal belief. To adopt post-truth thinking is to depart from Enlightenment ideas, dominant in the West since the 17th century, that value experience and expertise, the centrality of fact, humility in the face of complexity, the need for study and a respect for ideas.  [Read More:  Hayden/nytimes/28Apr2018]

Israel Exposes Iran's Nuclear Lies, and the Limits of U.S. Intelligence.  Since Iran and six world powers reached an agreement to pause Iran's enrichment of uranium and allow weapons inspectors into declared facilities, Israel's prime minister has argued the deal would give Iran a glide path to a nuclear weapon. On Monday he announced that he had proof.

If the West can verify the new Israeli intelligence that Iran had preserved its design and research work into a nuclear weapon, that's a big deal - particularly now in light of the May 12 deadline that President Donald Trump has imposed on U.S. negotiations with Europe to come up with fixes to strengthen the nuclear bargain. The trove of data would be a blow not only to Iran's credibility but also to the reputation of American intelligence gathering.

As negotiations with Iran came to a close in summer 2015, John Kerry, then secretary of state, assured reporters that American intelligence agencies had "absolute knowledge" about Iran's past efforts to build a nuclear weapon.

It was a strange remark. As the intelligence assessments before the 2003 Iraq War showed, intelligence is never absolute. What's more, the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, still had its own outstanding questions for Iran. Indeed, that agency could not give Iran a clean bill of health on the possible military dimensions of its nuclear program nearly six months later.  [Read More:  Lake/bloomberg/30Apr2018]

The House Intelligence Committee Report is Full of Bizarre Redactions.  By releasing a report documenting its investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election - and any links between that interference and the campaign of President Trump - the Republican majority on the House Intelligence Committee planted a flag in defense of the president. It didn't take Trump long to leverage it, either; in short order Trump tweeted that the investigation by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III "MUST END." Democrats on the House committee, though, argue that the report (which they didn't endorse) is "a systematic effort to muddy the waters" of what happened.

This article isn't about that. This article is about how the report redacts the names of people involved in the investigation even when the person being mentioned is immediately obvious.

For example, consider this section of the report.  [Read More:  Bump/washingtonpost/27Apr2018]



Section IV - Jobs, Obituaries

Jobs

Senior Project Manager for FireEye, Inc. in Reston, VA.
Experience: 5 to 20 years.
Manage software development projects for a team that is developing innovative research projects that are used to influence next generation products. Hands on management and delivery of multiple projects to meet technology and business requirements on time and within budget. Executes project management methodologies and stan... [more information here]

Obituaries

John Philip Nolan, 95, a former OSS and CIA Communications Security Officer, died 24 April 2018 in Fairfax, VA. He was a Purple Heart WWII veteran. He is survived by his wife, Antoinette Nolan; by two sons and two daughters, and other family.


Section V - Events

AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

Saturday, 12 May 2018, noon - Melbourne FL - The AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter presents chapter member Dr. Henry A. Fischer on "The History and Future of the American Security Council Foundation."

Dr. Henry A. Fischer will discuss "The History and Future of the American Security Council Foundation." The ASCF is the first public policy organization in America that has been helping to keep the nation and world safe since 1985 by promoting the principles of "Peace Through Strength." Dr. Fischer's presentation includes a short video on the "Step Up America Program. Dr. Fischer is a dentist and developer in Sebastian, Florida since 1962. He is the President of Henry Fischer and Sons, Inc., a heavy equipment company developing quiet lakefront communities and beach restoration. He has dedicated 4.5 miles off the Sebastian River to the State of Florida.

LOCATION: Amici's restaurant, 7720 N Wickham Rd, Melbourne, FL. AFIO members, their guests and interested parties are welcome to attend. Attendance is by registration only. To register, contact FSC Chapter President at afiofsc@afio.com.

Thursday, 17 May 2018, 11:30 AM - Denver, CO - The AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter hosts Dr. Gail H. Nelson on US Strategic Early Warning – Poland (1980-1981).

When the Polish workers organized into an independent anti-communist movement (Solidarity) against the regime during the Summer 1980, the US/NATO Indications & Warning System (IW) came alive under the assumption that the Warsaw Pact led by the Soviets would invade Poland if the movement was not crushed. It was the crisis scenario that the Warsaw Pact Political Affairs Analyst, Dr. Gail H. Nelson, had been prepared for in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. He provided strategic early warning of Martial Law in Poland over one year prior to its imposition on 13 December 1981. The accurate warning estimate reassured NATO leaders that the IW system could provide reliable warning of war in Europe were this worst-case scenario to present itself.

Dr. Nelson is a veteran US Intelligence Officer with over 45 years of experience in Eurasian political-military affairs. He was born into an Air Force culture in 1944 and experienced the transient life of military families assigned to the United Kingdom, Belgium, and France. He returned to California in 1962 to commence undergraduate studies and was commissioned in the US Air Force in 1967. He was assigned to the USAF Martin-Marietta Facility at Waterton, Colorado and destined for an ICBM career. Instead, he entered the University of Colorado Graduate School of Political Science specializing in German and Soviet Studies completing the MA in 1972 and the Ph.D. in 1979. He entered the Air Force Intelligence Service in 1974 and US Army Europe Intelligence in 1975 – appointed the Warsaw Pact Political Affairs Analyst in 1977. He transferred to European Command in 1990 responsible for analysis of Russian and East European affairs. He retired from the US Civil Service and Air Force Reserve in 2001 as Chief of Theater Intelligence Estimates. He was appointed Senior Intelligence Advisor to the Afghanistan Chief of Military Intelligence in 2003 under contract. He performed similar positions in Manila and Baghdad before returning to Kabul in 2010 for one last expedition.

Please contact Tom VanWormer at robsmom@pcisys.net for more information.

Wednesday 23 May 2018 - San Francisco, CA - Historian Ralph Simpson discusses "History of the Enigma Machine" at this AFIO San Francisco Chapter meeting.

Ralph Simpson, Historian, discusses "The History of the Enigma Machine." Ralph Simpson worked in the computer industry for 32 years at IBM and Cisco Systems. He is now retired and volunteers at a local history museum. Mr. Simpson is the author of a cipher history book called Crypto Wars: 2000 Years of Cipher Evolution and is an avid collector of cipher machines, which can be seen on CipherHistory.com. Mr. Simpson lives in San Jose in a restored Victorian house, which is also home to his Cipher History Museum.
Time: 11:30 AM no-host cocktail; noon - meeting and luncheon begins.
Location: Basque Cultural Center, 599 Railroad Avenue, South San Francisco, CA 94080
To Register: Do so here (forthcoming). The venue cannot accommodate walk-ins.
Questions?: Contact Mariko Kawaguchi, Board Secretary at afiosf@aol.com.

Friday, 1 June 2018 - Tysons, VA - AFIO Spring Luncheon featuring Deputy Director of CIA for Analysis and two other keynote speakers

This special luncheon features three keynote speakers. They are: Richard W. Hoch, Deputy Director of CIA for Analysis, on "The Directorate of Analysis and the Future of Analysis" [Remarks are off the record. No recording, quoting, or media permitted] Bruce Riedel, CIA and Brookings, on "The Future of US-Saudi Relations," based on his book, Kings and Presidents: Saudi Arabia and the United States Since FDR. and R. Scott Decker, FBI, on Recounting the Anthrax Attacks: Terror, the Amerithrax Task Force, and the Evolution of Forensics in the FBI.

NOTE NEW TIMES: Badge pick-up at 9:15 to 10 a.m. First speaker, Scott Decker, at 10 a.m.; Bruce Riedel at 11 a.m. and DD/A Hoch at 1 p.m.

Registration opens Friday, 6 April. Link will appear at www.afio.com and in next Weekly Notes
Location: DoubleTree-Hilton, Tysons Corner, VA [formerly the Crowne Plaza], at 1960 Chain Bridge Rd, McLean, VA 22102.


Other Upcoming Events from Advertisers, Corporate Sponsors, and Others'

Thursday, 10 May 2018, 6-8pm – Washington, DC – Expectations of Privacy in the Digital Age – at the International Spy Museum

Join Terry Roberts, Founder and President of WhiteHawk, Inc. for a discussion of cybersecurity informed by her extraordinary career in intelligence. She was previously the Vice President for Intel and Cyber at TASC. Before transitioning to industry in 2009, Roberts was the Deputy Director of Naval Intelligence (DDNI), where she led, together with the Director of Naval Intelligence, more than 20,000 intelligence and information-warfare military and civilian professionals. Prior to being the Navy DDNI, Roberts served as the Director of Requirements and Resources for the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence (USDI), spearheading the creation and implementation of the Military Intelligence Program. An intelligence professional for over 30 years, Roberts has held many senior intelligence positions, including Director of Intelligence, Commander Naval Forces Europe and Commander-in-Chief NATO AFSOUTH. The evening includes Roberts' remarks and a social hour with refreshments. Co-sponsored by the Naval Intelligence Professionals.
RSVP required by May 9 to NIPCapitalChapterVP@gmail.com. Event is free. Visit www.spymuseum.org.

15-16 May 2018 - Tel Aviv, IS - "Challenges and Opportunities in a Changing and Complex Environment" theme of the Third International Conference on Intelligence

The Israel Intelligence Community Heritage & Commemoration Center (IICC) and Israel Defense presents the Third International Conference on Intelligence. The annual International Intelligence Conference on "Challenges and Opportunities in a Changing and Complex Environment" will be held at the initiative of the Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center (the official association of former IDF Intelligence, Shin Bet, Mossad, and other organizations) and Israel Defense. The conference is attended by senior officials from Israel and around the world, as well as members of the intelligence community, experts, academics, industry leaders and innovative companies in the field.
Topics: Overview of the regional and global intelligence with which Israel contends; 70 Years of intelligence - where are we now, and how will we advance?; Challenges and opportunities of intelligence in the modern battlefield; Coping with the threats of terrorism in the global era; Intelligence Innovation: development of technologies in the Big Data Era and changes in the battlefield. A large exhibition will be held alongside the conference, with the participation of the established defense companies and startups, during which advanced weapons systems and technological means will be presented.
The huge exhibition will be held under the theme of 70 Years of Technological and Security Achievements
Event location: The Israel Trade Fairs Center, Tel Aviv. View brochure here.
Additional information at W: warfare.israeldefense.co.il / T: 074-703-1211 / F: 09-7671857 / E: info@israeldefense.co.il

Friday, 18 May 2018, 1 - 2:30 pm - Annapolis Junction, MD - 2018 Henry F. Schorreck Lecture Speaker Series by NSA's Center for Cryptologic History on "The Pueblo Incident: A Fifty-Year Retrospective."

The National Cryptologic Museum hosts NSA's Center for Cryptologic History's 2018 Henry F. Schorreck Lecture Speaker Series which will explore "The Pueblo Incident: A Fifty-Year Retrospective."

The special guest speaker is Mitchell Lerner, Associate Professor of History and Director of the Institute for Korean Studies at Ohio State University. He is the author of The Pueblo Incident: A Spy Ship and the Failure of American Foreign Policy, which won the 2002 John Lyman Book Award.
"Remember," Rear Admiral Frank Johnson told the officers of the USS Pueblo just before they departed for their first mission, "you are not going out there to start a war." And yet, war appeared to be not far off when the spy ship was captured by North Korean forces on 23 January 1968, leaving one dead crewman and 82 other Americans held captive for a year in North Korean prison camps. This presentation will examine this controversial incident from start to finish, and will open a window into not only American decision making but also into the perspectives of North Korea, South Korea, and the Soviet Union.

REGISTRATION: Event is free. However, a full house is anticipated and thus, advanced registration is required at this link. The NSA-CCH will confirm registrations and answer any questions.
DIRECTIONS: The NCM is located at 8290 Colony Seven Rd, Annapolis Junction, MD 20701. Here is are directions to the Museum.
Qs or prefer to register by email?: contact Greg Nedved at gjnedve@nsa.gov to reserve the desired number of seats by email.

Saturday, 19 May 2018, 1-4pm – Washington, DC – Allan Topol: Russian Resurgence – at the International Spy Museum

Join the International Spy Museum for an in-store book signing of Russian Resurgence by Allan Topol. Allan is the author of thirteen novels of international intrigue. Two of them, Spy Dance and Enemy of My Enemy, were national best sellers. His novels have been translated into Japanese, Portuguese and Hebrew. One was optioned and three are in development for movies. Book Description: Twelve year old Nick, escaping from the burning of his grandfather's house in Potomac, Maryland by Russian thugs, is caught up in a plot by Russian President Kuznov to recreate the Soviet empire in eastern and central Europe. The linchpin of Kuznov's plan is an agreement with a corrupt Hungarian Prime Minister to permit Russia to move troops into Hungary. In Allan Topol's fast moving fourteenth novel, Craig Page and Elizabeth Crowder, working with Peter Toth, who bears the scars of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution, and Peter's grandson, Nick, try to thwart Kuznov's plot. The action moves from Paris to Grozny, to Washington, and finally to intriguing Budapest. Craig, Elizabeth and Nick face repeated attacks on their lives.
Event is free. Visit www.spymuseum.org.

Wednesday, 30 May 2018, 7-10pm – Washington, DC – Dinner with a Spy: An Evening with Mubin Shaikh – at 701 Restaurant with the International Spy Museum

Enjoy a martini "Shaikh'n Not Stirred" and a delicious three-course dinner* with Mubin Shaikh as he shares his personal journey from former extremist to undercover operative and global expert on terrorism. Shaikh is one of the very few people in the world to have actually been undercover in a homegrown terror cell. After coming out of extremism himself, he decided to use his connections as a former jihadist sympathizer and supporter to fight terrorism by working undercover for the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police's Integrated National Security Enforcement Team to infiltrate extremist persons and groups. All his prior investigations remain CLASSIFIED except for the "Toronto 18," his final one, a group that was infiltrated and eventually prosecuted in open court, where Shaikh testified in the Superior Court in 5 legal hearings over 4 years. Leaders of the group planned for catastrophic terror attacks including placing three truck bombs in Toronto that were the size of Oklahoma City's bomb, storming the Parliament, and beheading the Canadian Prime Minister.
To be one of only 12 guests at dinner at 701 Restaurant: email Amanda Ohlke at aohlke@spymuseum.org. Tickets for the general public: $265 per person; Members: $235 *includes hors d'oeuvres, and three-course dinner with signature cocktails and wine. Visit www.spymuseum.org.

3 - 15 June 2018 - Charlottesville, VA - 26th National Security Law Institute Call for Applications

The 26th National Security Law Institute will take place June 3 through June 15, 2018. The National Security Law Institute provides advanced training for government officials and professors of law and political science who teach or are preparing to teach graduate-level courses in national security law or related subjects requiring a detailed understanding of National Security Law. Applications are also invited from government attorneys in the national security community who are actively engaged in the practice of national security law or otherwise have a professional need for such training. This annual intensive two-week course is held at the University of Virginia School of Law in Charlottesville, Virginia. Prominent scholars and current and former government experts will take part in lectures, panels, and debates to address both theoretical background and important contemporary issues of national security law.

Topics addressed include: Contemporary Theory Concerning the Origins of War and the "Democratic Peace"; Aggression & Self-Defense; The ISIL Threat; Cyber Threats; War and Treaty Powers under the Constitution; Intelligence and the Law; Domestic and Transnational Terrorism; Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Warfare Threats; Law of Armed Conflict; War Crimes and Their Prosecution; and Maritime Concerns/South China Sea.

Accommodations: Hyatt Place Charlottesville, 2100 Bond St (GPS use 1954 Swanson Dr), Charlottesville, VA. Approximately 25-30 participants are selected to attend each Institute. Participants are responsible for providing their own transportation to and from Charlottesville and paying a tuition fee of $1,950.00, which includes lodging, lunches, course materials, and any group dinners during the Institute. The deadline for applications for the 2018 Institute is May 11, 2018. For additional information please contact Bill Lacy regarding applications (blacy@law.virginia.edu) or Mer McLernon (mer@law.virginia.edu) for logistics (lodging, meals, etc.). The Center has a small fund from which to provide scholarship assistance to a few applicants who might otherwise not be able to attend the program. More information here.

20 June 2018 - Annapolis Junction, MD - NCMF Summer Cryptologic Program features Dr. Janet Breslin-Smith on "American Diplomatic and Military Strategy and its Clash with Saudi Culture."

The 2018 NCMF Summer Cryptologic Program will feature Dr. Janet Breslin-Smith with a presentation on American diplomatic and military strategy, and its clash with Saudi culture. Janet Breslin-Smith is president of Crosswinds International Consulting. She draws on a 30-year career in public service, including leadership roles in the US Senate, the National War College, and in Saudi Arabia, where she focused on higher education and outreach to women. She has written and lectured on strategy and culture, macroeconomics and Islam, women, Islam, and Saudi Arabia. Her article, "The Struggle to Erase Saudi Extremism," appeared in November 2015 in the New York Times. She is the co-author of The National War College: A History of Strategic Thinking in Peace and War. Breslin-Smith, a professor of national security strategy for 14 years at the National War College in Washington, D.C., was the first woman to chair that department. She was named Outstanding Professor at the College in 2006. Prior to her academic career, she was legislative director for Sen. Patrick J. Leahy and deputy staff director of the Senate Agriculture Committee. Breslin-Smith resided in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from 2009 through 2013, with her husband, Ambassador James Smith. She developed extensive contacts with Saudi women leaders in higher education, medicine, business, banking, and philanthropy. She lectured at Alfaisal University, the Diplomatic Studies Institute and CellA+ women's business networks. She consulted with Saudi women members newly appointed to the Shura Council. Breslin-Smith earned her PhD from the University of California at Los Angeles and her undergraduate degree in international relations from the University of Southern California.

Where: CACI, Inc., 2720 Technology Dr, Annapolis Junction, MD 20701. For further information and registration, visit this link. Registration at that link to be available shortly.

Wednesday, 28 November 2018, 6 - 10:30 pm - Washington, DC - International Spy Museum's Annual "William H. Webster Distinguished Service Award Dinner" honoring Adm McRaven

For your calendar. A special evening to illuminate the critical role of individuals and organizations serving the Intelligence Community, and to raise funds in support of the International Spy Museum.

The William H. Webster Distinguished Service Award Dinner will take place at The Ritz Carlton Hotel. More than 600 attendees are anticipated and will recognize the men and women who have served in the field of National Security with integrity and distinction. This annual tribute dinner is given by the International Spy Museum to an individual who has embodied the values of Judge William H. Webster. This year's honoree is a patriot for whom love of country has been his guiding principle: Admiral William H. McRaven, former US Special Operations Commander, former Joint Special Operations Commander, and Chancellor of The University of Texas System.
Schedule: 6 pm - VIP Reception; 6:30 pm - Cocktail Reception; 7:30 - 9 pm - Dinner & Awards; 9 - 10:30 pm - Dessert Reception.
Location: The Ritz-Carlton Hotel, 1150 22nd St NW, Washington, DC 20037. **Please note: this event is closed to Media**
Tickets Available Now: Prices range from $100,000 to a single seat for $495. Funds raised at this tribute dinner will support artifact preservation, educational programming, research, exhibits, and accessibility programs for underserved communities at the International Spy Museum. To purchase tickets now, do so here. To learn more about this annual dinner, it is available here.


Gift Suggestions:

AFIO's Guide to the Study of IntelligenceAFIO's 788-page Guide to the Study of Intelligence. Peter C. Oleson, Editor, also makes a good gift. View authors and table of contents here.

Perfect for professors, students, those considering careers in intelligence, and current/former officers seeking to see what changes are taking place across a wide spectrum of intelligence disciplines.

AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence helps instructors teach about the large variety of subjects that make up the field of intelligence. This includes secondary school teachers of American History, Civics, or current events and undergraduate and graduate professors of History, Political Science, International Relations, Security Studies, and related topics, especially those with no or limited professional experience in the field. Even those who are former practitioners are likely to have only a limited knowledge of the very broad field of intelligence, as most spend their careers in one or two agencies at most and may have focused only on collection or analysis of intelligence or support to those activities.

For a printed, bound copy, it is $95 which includes Fedex shipping to a CONUS (US-based) address.
To order for shipment to a US-based CONUS address, use this online form,

To order multiple copies or for purchases going to AK, HI, other US territories, or other countries call our office at 703-790-0320 or send email to afio@afio.com to hear of shipment fees.

Order the Guide from the AFIO's store at this link.

...ORDER HERE from AFIO.

The Guide is also available directly from Amazon at this link.

MousepadAFIO's 2017 Intelligence Community Mousepads are a great looking addition to your desk...or as a gift for others..
Made in USA. Click image for larger view.

These 2017 mousepads have full color seals of all 18 members of the US Intelligence Community on this 8" round, slick surface, nonskid, rubber-backed mouse pad with a darker navy background, brighter, updated seals. Also used, by some, as swanky coasters. Price still only $20.00 for 2 pads [includes shipping to US address. Foreign shipments - we will contact you with quote.] Order NEW MOUSEPADS here.

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