|WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN) #29-00 dtd 21 July 2000
WINs are based on open-source information. Commentary and opinions included
are those of Producer/Editor Roy Jonkers.
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SECTION I -- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
JOHN MILLIS CHILDREN's EDUCATION FUND - At AFIO's request, Mr. Tim
Sample, the new Chief of the Professional Staff of the House Permanent Select
Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI), has provided the following information for
anyone wishing to contribute to the Education Fund for the children of Dr.
John Millis, the late HPSCI Chief of Staff. This fund was established by the
HPSCI staff. Contributions are NOT tax deductible.
Checks should be made payable to: "Millis Children Educational
Support Fund." Please include the following account number on the check:
"account #131 688". Contributions should be mailed to: The Wright
Patman Congressional Credit Union, PO Box 2408, Merrifield, VA 22116-2408.
ALTERNATELY, since the INTELLIGENCE SCHOLARSHIP FOUNDATION (ISF) will make a
contribution the Millis Children Fund, AFIO members may make a tax-deductible
contribution to the ISF for inclusion in the ISF donation. Make the check out
to ISF and make a notation "Millis Children Fund" on the check, and
send it to: AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533. The ISF
is 501(c)(3) tax-exempt educational organization that has also made a
contribution to one of the AFIO scholarship funds and is administered by the
AFIO Executive Director.
Dr. John Millis was a strong supporter of the Intelligence Community and of
AFIO. His death was a tragedy. This fund and a contribution honor a good man.
BILL BLACK NOMINATED DEPUTY DIRECTOR NSA -- Lt Gen Michael V. Hayden
has nominated former Agency employee William B. Black Jr. as the next
Deputy Director of the Agency, pending approval by the SecDef and the
President. Mr. Black began his career at NSA in 1959. He retired from the
Agency in 1997, and has been employed by SAIC, a defense contractor, since
then, working "across the intelligence community to develop innovative
processes for intelligence collection." As the new Deputy Director, Mr.
Black will assist the Director in changing NSA's internal processes and
culture. Hayden called Black "...a trailblazer ...a cross between an
iconoclast and an innovator ...he knows the need to change, adapt,
transform." (NSA release 7/21/00) (Jonkers)
NEW WIRETAP AND ENCRYPTION LAWS -- The Administration on 17 July announced
that proposals will be forthcoming to update wiretap laws, both to extend the
powers of law enforcement to the online world and to provide new legal
protections for electronic communications. White House Chief of Staff John
Podesta announced that the new bills would be proposed within ten days, with
the intent of having legislation passed by the end of the year.
Telephone conversations are protected from federal wiretapping under the 1968
Crime Patrol and Safe Streets Act, which requires a court order and high-level
Justice Department approval. Wiretap rules for e-mail are covered by the
Electronic Communications Privacy Act of 1986.
Administration officials also announced a plan to loosen controls on the
export of encryption software. US companies will be able to export
sophisticated cryptography products to users in any nation in the European
Union and a number of other countries. The government will eliminate the
30-day waiting period before exports can take place but will keep in place a
requirement that new technologies be submitted to the government for a
technical review. (Wpost 18Jul, p.1)
SECTION II -- CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE
FORMER CHICOM INTELLIGENCE CHIEF TO BE INDICTED -- Major General Ji
Shengde, former PLA Intelligence Chief, will be indicted for corruption. He
will be charged with embezzlement of public funds, bribe-taking and
dereliction of duty involving more than $12.5 million. He is accused of taking
a $3.5 million bribe from Lai Changxin, China's most infamous smuggler who,
over the course of the past five years, is said to have smuggled $10 Billion
worth of oil, cars and electronic goods into China.
The case is of interest for several reasons. One is that General Ji was mentioned in the case of Johnny Chung, the Chinese -American fundraiser
for the Democratic Party. Another is that the announcement by a newspaper of
the China News Agency indicates an instance of disagreement between the Army
and the Party. The army anti-corruption investigators were said to have
bungled the investigation. The case was then taken over by the Discipline
Inspection Committee of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, which
rammed it through.
A third reason of special interest is that it provides a glimpse of the
intrigue and special protection considerations among the bosses. A number of
senior officials have been caught up in corruption and smuggling cases,
including Jia Qinglin, Beijing CP boss, and General Liu Huaqing, former
vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission. President Jiang Zemin is
said to be doing his best to protect these two men as they have been valuable
political allies. By the same token, the indicted Major General Ji is fair game since he lost his "protector" this year -- he was one
of the sons of Ji Pengfei, the last of China's old guard, who died last
February at age 91.
The intrigues and corruption of the Chinese leadership and the military
indicate that China may be considered a (minor) threat to the US or as one of
the regional East Asian power contenders, but it appears to be a worm-eaten
one suffering from internal rot. (Wpost 18 Jul2000, p. A16) (Jonkers)
IRAQI OPPOSITION FALLING APART? -- The Iraqi opposition was moderately
successful immediately after the Gulf War when rebels reached the Baghdad
suburbs. But since then they have been limited to operations in territory
covered by the northern and southern no-fly- zones -- enforced by the United
States and Great Britain with continuing regular bombings. Now Iraqi
opposition groups are claiming that they are increasingly the targets of
operations by Baghdad's special intelligence service, and there is renewed
speculation that the Iraqi opposition is falling apart at the seams.
Generally prone to feuding among themselves, the Iraqi opposition has always
been a colorful mix of political, ethnic and religious groups: Shiites,
Sunnis, Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, Assyrians, monarchists, communists, liberals
and former military officers. Most of these groups meet and coordinate through
the umbrella organization named the Iraqi National Congress (INC).
One of the most active militant groups has been the Supreme Council of the
Islamic Movement in Iraq (SCIRI), a Shiite group reportedly backed by Iran,
operating in southern Iraq. Either Iraqi or (interestingly enough) Iranian
government operatives are now accused of assassinating SCIRI supporters inside
Kurdish forces in the north of Iraq - perhaps the most militarily capable of
all the opposition parties - are also facing divisive problems. The three
strongest Kurd factions remain at odds, and have spent as much time fighting
each other as they have fighting Iraqi forces. Besides historic clan-based
rivalries, the main bone of contention is the tens of millions of dollars in
customs fees that comes from control of the border.
The umbrella organization, the Iraqi National Congress isn't faring much
better. Representatives of the INC met with U.S. officials in Washington in
July but weren't able to shake loose any of the $97 million authorized by the
Iraqi Liberation Act. Al-Zaman, an organ of the London-based Iraqi opposition
movement, is now claiming that Iraqi intelligence is finishing a plan
(nicknamed Hawk-1) to assassinate dissident INC members with car accidents and
poison. This story is plausible -- Iraq has assassinated dissidents in the
past. Alternatively it may be that the dissidents are plotting against each
other and blaming the Iraqi government.
The Iraqi opposition appears to be breaking up under its own internal
pressures - and Iraqi security services may be hastening their demise.The
intrigue is Byzantine, the combinations endless. Welcome to Saddam's world.
(Sources/Global Intel Update 20Jul00) http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/countries/Iraq/default.htm
(courtesy G. Doherty) (Jonkers)
SECTION III -- CYBER INTELLIGENCE
THE TECHNOLOGY BEHIND FBI'S 'CARNIVORE' -- The law enforcement agency's
secret box for sniffing emails may run on Windows NT - but details are still a
mystery. The FBI's email snooping "Carnivore" -- now the center of a
fierce debate over privacy -- began life on a store shelf.
What would later become an email monitoring system had rather humble
beginnings as a commercially available email sniffing program. FBI engineers
went to work on it 18 months ago, and within a year added enough bells and
whistles to create a system for the 2000s -- and a scandal over just how much
information the program is able to cull. For the last two weeks, the FBI has
been quiet about Carnivore, which it has been using with judges' permission
since March to sift through email messages that flow through some of the
world's ISPs. But the FBI will be doing a lot more talking beginning Monday.
The bureau will introduce its chief technologist, Marcus C. Thomas, to brief
the press about Carnivore. Hours later, Thomas and others will be on Capitol
Hill, telling Congress the same facts and figures.
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/2000/28/ns-16738.html (Levines Newsbits 07/20/00)
UK RIP BILL PROGRESS -- Legislation that will give UK police more power
to snoop on Internet users is on the verge of becoming law after passing
through a third and final reading in the House of Lords Wednesday. Despite
significant amendments to the Regulation of Investigatory Powers (RIP) Bill,
opponents remain convinced that once it becomes law it will damage Britain's
Changes made in the Lords introduced safeguards that give companies the right
to sue law enforcers if negligence is suspected in the handling of sensitive
information. A further amendment made it incumbent on the police to inform a
senior judge before they can capture encryption keys. http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/2000/28/ns-16742.html
FBI SEIZES FORMER DOE OFFICIAL'S COMPUTER DRIVE -- The FBI has seized a
computer hard drive used by former Energy Department intelligence chief Notra
Trulock, concerned that he may have included classified data in a proposed
article he submitted for clearance by the CIA. The Washington Post quoted
senior U.S. officials as saying the FBI obtained the hard drive after
officials at CIA and other federal agencies expressed concern about the
possible inclusion of classified information..
SECTION IV -- BOOKS AND OTHER SOURCES
MOST SECRET AND CONFIDENTIAL: Intelligence in the Age of Nelson,
by Steven E. Maffeo, Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, Md, 2000, ISBN
1-55750-545-4, notes, bibliography, index. This book by a naval officer (USNR)
focuses on the British government and navy during the years 1793 and 1815, and
attempts to analyze the impact of intelligence upon naval history during this
era. It also discusses the effectiveness of command decision-making relative
to the commander's use, non-use or misuse of intelligence, as well as the
systems developed by governments and navies to make effective use of
intelligence. It covers reconnaissance scouts, signals and information
transmission, deception and case studies of campaigns. This is an interesting
perspective on intelligence as it developed in fairly recent times, providing
both a contextual historical update and a professionally relevant focus.
Recommended reading, particularly for the history buff. (Jonkers)
AFIO AUTHORS -- AFIO Members who have written a book during the past
two years, please send me an email with your name, book title, publisher, date
of publication, and ISBN. Include a three-line abstract of the topic. All AFIO
authors will be recognized on our Website, and will be eligible for a special
book award to be made at the 25th Anniversary Awards Banquet.
Please overlook the fact that a number of you are known to me as authors - and
let me have the information once more.
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