WINS are produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers. This WIN includes articles by Associate Editor John Macartney.

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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

NEW ADMINISTRATION INTELLIGENCE AND RELEVANT POLICY PERSONNEL SPECULATIONS:
(1) INTELLIGENCE PERSONNEL -- Richard L. Haver, a veteran naval intelligence officer and former executive director of intelligence community affairs at CIA headquarters, is the Bush administration's transition officer for intelligence. Haver now works with retired Adm. William O. Studeman, former CIA deputy director, at TRW Inc. Haver was involved in debriefing three of the most damaging spies in U.S. intelligence history: Navy Chief Warrant Officer John Walker, Navy analyst Jonathan Pollard and CIA case officer Aldrich H. Ames.
(2) CHINA POLICY -- According to U.S. officials close to the transition, among the officials under consideration for the top NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL (NSC) China policy-making post are Chuck Downs, a former Pentagon China specialist who was a key aide on the special congressional committee that investigated Chinese missile technology acquisition and nuclear espionage. Mr. Downs is said to favor a more realistic strategy of dealing with China as a strategic competitor and not a partner. Also being considered for the NSC China post is Harry Harding, a George Washington University academic who is viewed as favoring the current engagement policies.
Advocates of the so-called "engagement" policy are urging Mr. Bush to appoint policy-makers who will not take such an ideological hard line against China. A leading proponent of this view within the Bush foreign policy team is said to be Robert Blackwill, who may become the deputy national security adviser. He clashed with China-is-a-major-threat hardliners during a behind-the-scenes debate on the Republican platform during the Republican National Convention. China "realists" are hoping that Paul Wolfowitz, a former defense policy-maker, will emerge in a key position to provide balance to the engagement advocates.
Another name being mentioned is James A. Kelly, president of the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who may be appointed as assistant Secretary of State for East Asia.
Mr. Kelly, a former Navy captain, worked in the White House and Pentagon during the 1980s. Critics said he was known then for opposing U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, including F-16 jet fighters that eventually were sold.
In the Pentagon, China policy appointments being discussed include Curt Campbell, who was a deputy assistant defense secretary for China during the Clinton administration, and Air Force Maj. Mark Stokes, a current policy-maker widely regarded as the Pentagon's most competent China hand, is being mentioned for the key Pentagon job of deputy assistant defense secretary for East Asia. Also mentioned for the deputy job is Torkel Paterson, an academic said to be favored by pro-China advocates.
Another China specialist being considered for a top job is James Lilley, a former ambassador and CIA official, who is also in the running to replace George Tenet as CIA director. Mr. Lilley is currently at the American Enterprise Institute. (Wash Times Dec 18, p.4, Bill Gertz) (Jonkers)

NSA REORGANIZATION -- Lt. Gen. Michael V. Hayden last week completed the restructuring of the National Security Agency, leaving the nation's signals intelligence (SIGINT) and code-making bureaucracy with just two directorates, those of SIGINT and Information Assurance, instead of the former five directorates of Operations, Information Systems Security, Technology, Corporate Management and Support Services. The duplication in support services was said to be considerable and responsiveness to the director's office was deemed unsatisfactory. The two left standing are both "mission-oriented." Other functions now come either directly under Hayden or under the newly designated chief of staff, Adm. Joseph Burns. "These changes constitute a giant leap in where we want to go -- transforming our people, processes and systems," Hayden said last week in a memo to his staff. "These are the last macro-organizational changes I intend to make. . . . This is not a trip to a known destination, but I'm pleased with the path we have chosen for this journey." (WashPost Dec19 p.37 // V. Loeb (Jonkers)

CUBAN SPIES ON TRIAL -- Jurors got a primer in Spying 101 Monday as prosecutors called their first witnesses in the federal trial of five men accused of spying for the Cuban government. The testimony established that code names and secret passwords really are tools of the trade -- not just for the Cubans on trial, but also for the FBI. The accused, for instance, allegedly concealed thousands of pages of intelligence reports on encrypted computers disks. At first glance the disks looked empty. But FBI Agent Vicente Rosado testified that he ferreted more than 3,000 pages from the disks by discovering the encryption program's hidden passwords: Afinacion. Cientifico. Fuerte. Mambi. Rosado is a computer specialist working with the agency's Foreign Counter-Intelligence squad on Cuba. Under direct examination by Assistant U.S. Attorney Caroline Heck Miller, Rosado said that on 10 occasions, between Aug. 5, 1996, and April 26, 1998, he made clandestine searches (with search warrants) at homes of the people linked to the so-called La Red Avispa, or Wasp Network. He used a machine to copy the contents of some 814 computer disks found inside.
FBI agents swept through seven homes from Hollywood to Key West on Sept. 12, 1998, and arrested 10 Cubans in a major counterespionage investigation. Prosecutors allege that 14 ring members monitored U.S. military installations and Cuban exile groups in a bid to feed secrets to Fidel Castro. The lead defendant, Hernandez, is also accused of conspiring to commit murder in the shootdown of four 'Brothers to the Rescue' fliers. Hernandez is accused of passing to Cuban authorities the flight plan of Brothers to the Rescue, two of whose Cessnas were shot down by a Cuban MiG fighter on Feb. 24, 1996.
The defense acknowledges that the men were working for the Cuban government, but denies that they obtained classified information or intended to harm U.S. interests. Five of the 14 people indicted in the case already pleaded guilty. Four are believed to have fled to Cuba.
(Miami Herald Dec12. 2000 // Gail Epstein Nieves) (Jonkers)

NEW SECURITY THREAT 2020 -- Global Warming Opens Arctic -- The thawing polar ice and opening of the once un-navigable Northwest Passage waterway in the Canadian Arctic is a potential boon for shipping and other commerce, but it also presents a growing Canadian (and US) security problem. For one thing, Canada views the Northwest Passage as an internal waterway, while Europe and the U.S. view it as an international strait. Defense officials here say a dispute could flare up as the passage becomes increasingly accessible to foreign ships.
Canada estimates that the Northwest Passage, which currently is closed by ice for most of each year, could be open for year-round navigation by 2020, allowing shipping companies to radically cut their transit time between Europe and Asia by steaming across the northern tip of Canada, dubbed the Arctic Panama Canal. Canadian military officials worry that the opening of northern waterways could lead to a rise in organized crime, illegal immigration and the intrusion of foreign militaries in the north.
Canadian military intelligence has already detected undeclared foreign submarine activity in Cumberland Sound, off Baffin Island in the far north. Canadian generals add that a number of foreign nations are looking hungrily at the resource-rich north, and the disorder of intrusions, both legal and illegal, could be exacerbated by foreign claims to arctic territory. Denmark, for example, has claimed ownership of an island in the region
The Canadian government relies on the Canadian Rangers, a militia of 3,500 Eskimos, to patrol the Arctic and gather intelligence on goings-on in Canada's most remote area. Canada's defense department has allocated funds to improve the Rangers' equipment and to increase their ranks to 4,800 over the next 8 years. The military also plans to outfit four new submarines so they can carry out extended patrols in arctic waters, and it has commissioned several more studies to analyze military requirements in the north.
The US Interior Department on 15 December 2000 released a global-warming report, forecasting sharply reduced mountain snow packs, increased flooding and the ruin of some coastal freshwater sources in the U.S. Many scientists ascribe the temperature increase to industrial nations' emissions of carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases.
(WallSt Journal Dec20, 2000 //Joel Baglole) (Jonkers)

NUCLEAR MISSILE THREAT REDUCTION -- US AND RUSSIA ACT TO PREVENT ACCIDENTAL LAUNCHINGS
Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright and Foreign Minister Igor S. Ivanov of Russia have signed an agreement aimed at strengthening cooperation to prevent accidental missile launchings on both sides. The updated pact seeks expand a joint warning center where the sides can exchange information . Cooperation on preventing accidental missile launchings began after a near-launching of a nuclear counterstrike in 1995, when Russia mistook a weather rocket fired from Norway for a NATO missile.
(NYT Dec 17, 2000). (Jonkers)

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

'GLOBAL TRENDS 2015' REPORT RELEASED -- A noteworthy national security study, conducted by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in cooperation with experts from universities and think tanks during the past fifteen months, was released on December 18th, 2000.
The report contains a set of forecasts of national and world security conditions fifteen years hence - a kind of 'informed crystal ball' exercise. It takes a broad view of America's national security interests, including the effects of non-military factors such as the spread of infectious diseases, global climate change, competition for fresh water resources, population growth and migration (already, legal and illegal migrants account for more than 15 percent of the population in more than 50 countries), ethnic tensions and economic factors.
  On the effects of globalization, the report was mixed. "The very concept of 'belonging' to a particular state will probably erode," the report states. But globalization "will not lift all boats." Governments will have less control over the flows of People, Arms, Information, and Money. Food stocks and Energy supplies will be plentiful, but bureaucratic bottlenecks and poverty will hinder their distribution. Just under half the world's population - more than 3 billion people - will live in countries that are "water-stressed" in areas of Africa, the Mideast, Asia, and China. This may give rise to conflicts and strife between and within states over water.
The main threats to U.S. territory over the coming 15 years will likely come from terrorists and other adversaries using 'Low-Tech' tools of war, made more dangerous by a concomitant trend toward " increasing collusion among terrorists, drug traffickers, weapons proliferators and organized crime." Potential adversaries will "try to circumvent or minimize U.S. strengths and exploit perceived weaknesses. . . . . Such asymmetric approaches -- whether undertaken by states or by non-state actors -- will become the dominant characteristic of most threats to the U.S. homeland," and will become the "defining challenge'' to U.S. national security strategy and military force development.
New High-Tech threats will also be a major problem. "Advances in science and technology will pose national security challenges of uncertain character and scale Computer network operations today offer new options for attacking the United States within its traditional continental sanctuary, potentially anonymously, and with selective effects.'' In addition, the risk of an attack against the United States involving chemical, biological or nuclear warheads will continue to grow.
In terms of geo-political competition, Russia is estimated to remain weak, with, at best, an economy less than one-fifth that of the US by 2015. The experts had a mixed opinion about China. "Working against China's aspirations to sustain economic growth while preserving its political system is an array of political, social, and economic pressures that will increasingly challenge the regime's legitimacy, and perhaps its survival." On the other hand, China may introduce enough political reform to adapt to domestic pressures for change. On balance, China will likely seek to avoid regional conflict for the sake of growth and internal stability.
An interesting section in the "Overview" compares this study with "Global Trends 2010," published in 1997. It says that globalization, non-state actors, natural resources and technology have become even more important drivers than was realized at that time.
Concluding on a final note, we may consider one of Defense Secretary-designate Donald Rumsfeld's quotes attributed to Richard Haver, "Nothing ages so quickly as yesterdays vision of the future."
(AP, 18 Dec 2000 ///. R. Burns) (WashPost & NYT 18 Dec 2000) (Chri.Sc. Monitor 20 Dec) (Jonkers/jdmac)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19618-2000Dec17.html   
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/index.html  
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20001218/pl/security_outlook_3.html
http://search.yahoo.com/bin/search?p=Central%20Intelligence%20Agency

THE WORLD IN 2025 -- MICRO-MINIATURIZATION OF INTELLIGENCE -- A 5-year old paper by retired Admiral David Jeremiah addresses nano-technology (ultra miniaturized machines) and, peering into another crystal ball, estimates how it will impact on intelligence sensors and information processing by 2025: ".Most military planners believe that robotics and remote controlled sensors will be essential to gather information in the future. Because of the progress we have made so far in micro-miniaturization, they will be very small.
Military systems will be deployed in very large numbers, much like minefields, and specialized in their tasks in order to reduce their size and minimize data processing. They will be scattered in space, at sea and on land. Any movement will be detected in specific areas of interest and progressively more complex sensors will be focused upon the movement to determine final disposition.
For urban combat and surveillance in peacekeeping missions, many of the sensors will be incorporated into the human system in order to enhance performance. Today we strap on night vision devices but by 2025 we almost certainly will implant enhancements in the human body to deal with biological warfare, to enhance visibility, to increase strength of the soldier, and do a variety of other things." (jdmac)
http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/nano4/jeremiahPaper.html  

"SECRET EVIDENCE" CASE FALLS THROUGH -- Last Friday, Attorney General Janet Reno approved the release of a Florida college professor who has been jailed for more than 3 1/2 years on the basis of secret evidence that immigration authorities refused to show him or his lawyers. A three-judge immigration panel ruled on Dec 11 that Mazen Al-Najjar, 43, a Palestinian immigrant who taught Arabic at the University of South Florida, should be freed. But INS Commissioner Doris Meissner appealed to Reno, who intervened moments before Al-Najjar was scheduled to be released last Tuesday. After considering the matter, Reno approved the release on Friday. Al-Najjar, who is married and has 3 American-born daughters, still faces possible deportation because of his immigration status -- his student visa expired years ago. [It is hard to know what to make of these "secret evidence" cases. Presumably, the individuals are being held, or deported, based on sensitive intelligence information that they are involved with terrorism. Civil libertarians hate the law that allows "secret evidence," and when several of these cases have actually gone to court and the evidence was revealed (behind closed doors to judges and lawyers) the case collapsed. Is that because the evidence is flimsy, or because the government won't reveal sources & methods or on legal technicalities -- it's hard to know. --jdmac]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12658-2000Dec15.html  

SENATOR MOYNIHAN BIDS FAREWELL -- In a valedictory address on the final day of the 106th Congress, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY) covered lots of bases, but gave special emphasis to his abiding concerns over government secrecy. He reiterated his often-expressed view of the CIA's " failure" to predict the collapse of the Soviet Union, touched again on the question of whether President Truman knew of VENONA, and raised many other issues. (Macartney)
http://www.fas.org/sgp/congress/2000/s121500.html

SECTION III - BOOKS AND OTHER SOURCES

OPERATION TPAJAX: THE 1953 COUP IN IRAN. Last June, the NY Times published a series of articles on the 1953 coup in Iran that overthrew Premier Mossadeq. The series was based on 200 page classified CIA historical document that had been leaked to the Times. Now the National Security Archive (a private non-profit that specializes in FOIA's and the publication formerly classified documents), has posted the document itself on their website as well as more info and analysis.
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB28/index.html  
http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/mideast/041600iran-cia-index.html  

WEBSITE ABOUT RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE. This is a privately run website that addresses Russian security services. "Since its start in September, "Agentura.ru" (the name means agents, and the ru is the country code for Russia) has been posting newspaper articles about international intelligence organizations, and providing an outline of how the Russian secret services are structured. The site also posts biographies of secret service officers, documents pertaining to the security and intelligence services, book reviews, discussions and Q&A's with secret service officers. It draws material from Russian newspapers and official sources " Although it has an English language version, many more documents are found only in Russian on the main website.
[contributed by S Livingston] http://www.agentura.ru/english/
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/12/14/technology/14SPYY.html
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Opinions expressed are those of the Editor or the Associate Editors, each of whom has a perspective based on fifty years or so of professional experience on behalf of US national security.

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