WINS are produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO
members and subscribers. This WIN includes articles by Associate
Editor John Macartney.
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SECTION I -
NEW ADMINISTRATION INTELLIGENCE AND RELEVANT POLICY
(1) INTELLIGENCE PERSONNEL -- Richard L. Haver, a
veteran naval intelligence officer and former executive director
of intelligence community affairs at CIA headquarters, is the
Bush administration's transition officer for intelligence. Haver
now works with retired Adm. William O. Studeman, former CIA
deputy director, at TRW Inc. Haver was involved in debriefing
three of the most damaging spies in U.S. intelligence history:
Navy Chief Warrant Officer John Walker, Navy analyst Jonathan
Pollard and CIA case officer Aldrich H. Ames.
(2) CHINA POLICY -- According to U.S. officials close to the
transition, among the officials under consideration for the top
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL (NSC) China policy-making post are
Chuck Downs, a former Pentagon China specialist who was a key
aide on the special congressional committee that investigated
Chinese missile technology acquisition and nuclear espionage.
Mr. Downs is said to favor a more realistic strategy of dealing
with China as a strategic competitor and not a partner. Also
being considered for the NSC China post is Harry Harding, a
George Washington University academic who is viewed as favoring
the current engagement policies.
Advocates of the so-called "engagement" policy are
urging Mr. Bush to appoint policy-makers who will not take such
an ideological hard line against China. A leading proponent of
this view within the Bush foreign policy team is said to be
Robert Blackwill, who may become the deputy national security
adviser. He clashed with China-is-a-major-threat hardliners
during a behind-the-scenes debate on the Republican platform
during the Republican National Convention. China
"realists" are hoping that Paul Wolfowitz, a former
defense policy-maker, will emerge in a key position to provide
balance to the engagement advocates.
Another name being mentioned is James A. Kelly, president of the
Hawaii-based Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, who may be appointed as assistant
Secretary of State for East Asia.
Mr. Kelly, a former Navy captain, worked in the White House and
Pentagon during the 1980s. Critics said he was known then for
opposing U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, including F-16 jet fighters
that eventually were sold.
In the Pentagon, China policy appointments being discussed
include Curt Campbell, who was a deputy assistant defense
secretary for China during the Clinton administration, and Air
Force Maj. Mark Stokes, a current policy-maker widely regarded
as the Pentagon's most competent China hand, is being
mentioned for the key Pentagon job of deputy assistant defense
secretary for East Asia. Also mentioned for the deputy job is
Torkel Paterson, an academic said to be favored by pro-China
Another China specialist being considered for a top job is James
Lilley, a former ambassador and CIA official, who is also in the
running to replace George Tenet as CIA director. Mr. Lilley is
currently at the American Enterprise Institute. (Wash Times Dec
18, p.4, Bill Gertz) (Jonkers)
NSA REORGANIZATION -- Lt. Gen. Michael V.
Hayden last week completed the restructuring of the National
Security Agency, leaving the nation's signals intelligence (SIGINT)
and code-making bureaucracy with just two directorates, those of
SIGINT and Information Assurance, instead of the former five
directorates of Operations, Information Systems Security,
Technology, Corporate Management and Support Services. The
duplication in support services was said to be considerable and
responsiveness to the director's office was deemed
unsatisfactory. The two left standing are both
"mission-oriented." Other functions now come either
directly under Hayden or under the newly designated chief of
staff, Adm. Joseph Burns. "These changes constitute a giant
leap in where we want to go -- transforming our people,
processes and systems," Hayden said last week in a memo to
his staff. "These are the last macro-organizational changes
I intend to make. . . . This is not a trip to a known
destination, but I'm pleased with the path we have chosen for
this journey." (WashPost Dec19 p.37 // V. Loeb (Jonkers)
CUBAN SPIES ON TRIAL -- Jurors got a primer in
Spying 101 Monday as prosecutors called their first witnesses in
the federal trial of five men accused of spying for the Cuban
government. The testimony established that code names and secret
passwords really are tools of the trade -- not just for the
Cubans on trial, but also for the FBI. The accused, for
instance, allegedly concealed thousands of pages of intelligence
reports on encrypted computers disks. At first glance the disks
looked empty. But FBI Agent Vicente Rosado testified that he
ferreted more than 3,000 pages from the disks by discovering the
encryption program's hidden passwords: Afinacion. Cientifico.
Fuerte. Mambi. Rosado is a computer specialist working with the
agency's Foreign Counter-Intelligence squad on Cuba. Under
direct examination by Assistant U.S. Attorney Caroline Heck
Miller, Rosado said that on 10 occasions, between Aug. 5, 1996,
and April 26, 1998, he made clandestine searches (with search
warrants) at homes of the people linked to the so-called La Red
Avispa, or Wasp Network. He used a machine to copy the contents
of some 814 computer disks found inside.
FBI agents swept through seven homes from Hollywood to Key West
on Sept. 12, 1998, and arrested 10 Cubans in a major
counterespionage investigation. Prosecutors allege that 14 ring
members monitored U.S. military installations and Cuban exile
groups in a bid to feed secrets to Fidel Castro. The lead
defendant, Hernandez, is also accused of conspiring to commit
murder in the shootdown of four 'Brothers to the Rescue' fliers.
Hernandez is accused of passing to Cuban authorities the flight
plan of Brothers to the Rescue, two of whose Cessnas were shot
down by a Cuban MiG fighter on Feb. 24, 1996.
The defense acknowledges that the men were working for the Cuban
government, but denies that they obtained classified information
or intended to harm U.S. interests. Five of the 14 people
indicted in the case already pleaded guilty. Four are believed
to have fled to Cuba.
(Miami Herald Dec12. 2000 // Gail Epstein Nieves) (Jonkers)
NEW SECURITY THREAT 2020 -- Global Warming
Opens Arctic -- The
thawing polar ice and opening of the once un-navigable Northwest
Passage waterway in the Canadian Arctic is a potential boon for
shipping and other commerce, but it also presents a growing
Canadian (and US) security problem. For one thing, Canada views
the Northwest Passage as an internal waterway, while Europe and
the U.S. view it as an international strait. Defense officials
here say a dispute could flare up as the passage becomes
increasingly accessible to foreign ships.
Canada estimates that the Northwest Passage, which currently is
closed by ice for most of each year, could be open for
year-round navigation by 2020, allowing shipping companies to
radically cut their transit time between Europe and Asia by
steaming across the northern tip of Canada, dubbed the Arctic
Panama Canal. Canadian military officials worry that the opening
of northern waterways could lead to a rise in organized crime,
illegal immigration and the intrusion of foreign militaries in
Canadian military intelligence has already detected undeclared
foreign submarine activity in Cumberland Sound, off Baffin
Island in the far north. Canadian generals add that a number of
foreign nations are looking hungrily at the resource-rich north,
and the disorder of intrusions, both legal and illegal, could be
exacerbated by foreign claims to arctic territory. Denmark, for
example, has claimed ownership of an island in the region
The Canadian government relies on the Canadian Rangers, a
militia of 3,500 Eskimos, to patrol the Arctic and gather
intelligence on goings-on in Canada's most remote area. Canada's
defense department has allocated funds to improve the Rangers'
equipment and to increase their ranks to 4,800 over the next 8
years. The military also plans to outfit four new submarines so
they can carry out extended patrols in arctic waters, and it has
commissioned several more studies to analyze military
requirements in the north.
The US Interior Department on 15 December 2000 released a
global-warming report, forecasting sharply reduced mountain snow
packs, increased flooding and the ruin of some coastal
freshwater sources in the U.S. Many scientists ascribe the
temperature increase to industrial nations' emissions of carbon
dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases.
(WallSt Journal Dec20, 2000 //Joel Baglole) (Jonkers)
NUCLEAR MISSILE THREAT REDUCTION -- US AND RUSSIA ACT TO
PREVENT ACCIDENTAL LAUNCHINGS
Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright and Foreign Minister
Igor S. Ivanov of Russia have signed an agreement aimed at
strengthening cooperation to prevent accidental missile
launchings on both sides. The updated pact seeks expand a joint
warning center where the sides can exchange information .
Cooperation on preventing accidental missile launchings began
after a near-launching of a nuclear counterstrike in 1995, when
Russia mistook a weather rocket fired from Norway for a NATO
(NYT Dec 17, 2000). (Jonkers)
SECTION II - CONTEXT AND
'GLOBAL TRENDS 2015' REPORT RELEASED -- A
noteworthy national security study, conducted by the National
Intelligence Council (NIC) in cooperation with experts from
universities and think tanks during the past fifteen months, was
released on December 18th, 2000.
The report contains a set of forecasts of national and world
security conditions fifteen years hence - a kind of 'informed
crystal ball' exercise. It takes a broad view of America's
national security interests, including the effects of
non-military factors such as the spread of infectious diseases,
global climate change, competition for fresh water resources,
population growth and migration (already, legal and illegal
migrants account for more than 15 percent of the population in
more than 50 countries), ethnic tensions and economic factors.
On the effects of globalization, the report was mixed.
"The very concept of 'belonging' to a particular state will
probably erode," the report states. But globalization
"will not lift all boats." Governments will have less
control over the flows of People, Arms, Information, and Money.
Food stocks and Energy supplies will be plentiful, but
bureaucratic bottlenecks and poverty will hinder their
distribution. Just under half the world's population - more than
3 billion people - will live in countries that are
"water-stressed" in areas of Africa, the Mideast,
Asia, and China. This may give rise to conflicts and strife
between and within states over water.
The main threats to U.S. territory over the coming 15 years will
likely come from terrorists and other adversaries using
'Low-Tech' tools of war, made more dangerous by a concomitant
trend toward " increasing collusion among terrorists, drug
traffickers, weapons proliferators and organized crime."
Potential adversaries will "try to circumvent or minimize
U.S. strengths and exploit perceived weaknesses. . . . . Such
asymmetric approaches -- whether undertaken by states or by
non-state actors -- will become the dominant characteristic of
most threats to the U.S. homeland," and will become the
"defining challenge'' to U.S. national security strategy
and military force development.
New High-Tech threats will also be a major problem.
"Advances in science and technology will pose national
security challenges of uncertain character and scale Computer
network operations today offer new options for attacking the
United States within its traditional continental sanctuary,
potentially anonymously, and with selective effects.'' In
addition, the risk of an attack against the United States
involving chemical, biological or nuclear warheads will continue
In terms of geo-political competition, Russia is estimated to
remain weak, with, at best, an economy less than one-fifth that
of the US by 2015. The experts had a mixed opinion about China.
"Working against China's aspirations to sustain economic
growth while preserving its political system is an array of
political, social, and economic pressures that will increasingly
challenge the regime's legitimacy, and perhaps its
survival." On the other hand, China may introduce enough
political reform to adapt to domestic pressures for change. On
balance, China will likely seek to avoid regional conflict for
the sake of growth and internal stability.
An interesting section in the "Overview" compares this
study with "Global Trends 2010," published in 1997. It
says that globalization, non-state actors, natural resources and
technology have become even more important drivers than was
realized at that time.
Concluding on a final note, we may consider one of Defense
Secretary-designate Donald Rumsfeld's quotes attributed to
Richard Haver, "Nothing ages so quickly as yesterdays
vision of the future."
(AP, 18 Dec 2000 ///. R. Burns) (WashPost & NYT 18 Dec 2000)
(Chri.Sc. Monitor 20 Dec) (Jonkers/jdmac)
THE WORLD IN 2025 -- MICRO-MINIATURIZATION OF
INTELLIGENCE -- A
5-year old paper by retired Admiral David Jeremiah addresses
nano-technology (ultra miniaturized machines) and, peering into
another crystal ball, estimates how it will impact on
intelligence sensors and information processing by 2025:
".Most military planners believe that robotics and remote
controlled sensors will be essential to gather information in
the future. Because of the progress we have made so far in
micro-miniaturization, they will be very small.
Military systems will be deployed in very large numbers, much
like minefields, and specialized in their tasks in order to
reduce their size and minimize data processing. They will be
scattered in space, at sea and on land. Any movement will be
detected in specific areas of interest and progressively more
complex sensors will be focused upon the movement to determine
For urban combat and surveillance in peacekeeping missions, many
of the sensors will be incorporated into the human system in
order to enhance performance. Today we strap on night vision
devices but by 2025 we almost certainly will implant
enhancements in the human body to deal with biological warfare,
to enhance visibility, to increase strength of the soldier, and
do a variety of other things." (jdmac)
"SECRET EVIDENCE" CASE FALLS THROUGH --
Last Friday, Attorney General Janet Reno approved the release of
a Florida college professor who has been jailed for more than 3
1/2 years on the basis of secret evidence that immigration
authorities refused to show him or his lawyers. A three-judge
immigration panel ruled on Dec 11 that Mazen Al-Najjar, 43, a
Palestinian immigrant who taught Arabic at the University of
South Florida, should be freed. But INS Commissioner Doris
Meissner appealed to Reno, who intervened moments before Al-Najjar
was scheduled to be released last Tuesday. After considering the
matter, Reno approved the release on Friday. Al-Najjar, who is
married and has 3 American-born daughters, still faces possible
deportation because of his immigration status -- his student
visa expired years ago. [It is hard to know what to make of
these "secret evidence" cases. Presumably, the
individuals are being held, or deported, based on sensitive
intelligence information that they are involved with terrorism.
Civil libertarians hate the law that allows "secret
evidence," and when several of these cases have actually
gone to court and the evidence was revealed (behind closed doors
to judges and lawyers) the case collapsed. Is that because the
evidence is flimsy, or because the government won't reveal
sources & methods or on legal technicalities -- it's hard to
SENATOR MOYNIHAN BIDS FAREWELL --
In a valedictory address on the final day of the 106th Congress,
Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY) covered lots of bases,
but gave special emphasis to his abiding concerns over
government secrecy. He reiterated his often-expressed
view of the CIA's " failure" to predict the collapse
of the Soviet Union, touched again on the question of whether
President Truman knew of VENONA, and raised many other
SECTION III -
BOOKS AND OTHER SOURCES
OPERATION TPAJAX: THE 1953 COUP IN IRAN.
Last June, the NY Times published a series of articles on the
1953 coup in Iran that overthrew Premier Mossadeq. The series
was based on 200 page classified CIA historical document that
had been leaked to the Times. Now the National Security Archive
(a private non-profit that specializes in FOIA's and the
publication formerly classified documents), has posted the
document itself on their website as well as more info and
WEBSITE ABOUT RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE. This is a
privately run website that addresses Russian security services.
"Since its start in September, "Agentura.ru" (the
name means agents, and the ru is the country code for Russia)
has been posting newspaper articles about international
intelligence organizations, and providing an outline of how the
Russian secret services are structured. The site also posts
biographies of secret service officers, documents pertaining to
the security and intelligence services, book reviews,
discussions and Q&A's with secret service officers. It draws
material from Russian newspapers and official sources "
Although it has an English language version, many more documents
are found only in Russian on the main website.
[contributed by S Livingston] http://www.agentura.ru/english/
Opinions expressed are those of the Editor or the Associate
Editors, each of whom has a perspective based on fifty years or
so of professional experience on behalf of US national security.
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