Weekly Intelligence Notes #02-01
15 January 2001

WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN) 
02-01 dtd 15 January 2001

WINs are produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers to support AFIO's public educational mission, WINs include articles contributed by associate editors Professor (Ret) John Macartney and RADM (Ret) Don Harvey.

Warning Notice: Perishability of Links:  WINs, sent weekly to members, often contain numerous webpage links to fast-breaking news, documents or other items of interest; unfortunately, after four weeks many of these websites [especially newspaper and other media sites] remove items or shift them into fee-only archives.  This underscores the benefit of receiving the WINs as they are released.

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SECTION I -- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE & CI

INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS' TENURE SPECULATIONS - FBI Director Louis J Freeh is said to be under financial pressure as the father of six boys approaching college age, and has been rumored to be looking for a higher-paying position in private industry. President-elect Bush is said to want to retain Freeh in his job, according to Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer, who said "We have never been looking for an FBI director. Our nation has an FBI director." The FBI Director's term of office runs until 2003. In an internal FBI bulletin in December Director Freeh announced that he had no plans to leave "at this time."

President-elect Bush also allegedly will ask CIA Director George Tenet to stay on for at least several months, to allow his national security team to get firmly established. (Wash Post 5Jan2001, p.A9 //D. Vise) (Jonkers)

PRESIDENTIAL DECISION DIRECTIVE CI-21: COUNTERINTELLIGENCE -- President Clinton has signed a Presidential Decision Directive (PDD) entitled "U.S. Counterintelligence Effectiveness for the 21st Century." This important PDD outlines specific steps that will enable the U.S. counterintelligence (CI) community to better fulfill its mission of identifying, understanding, prioritizing and counteracting the intelligence threats faced by the United States. The system is designed to be predictive, proactive, and to provide integrated oversight of counter-intelligence issues across the national security agencies. The PDD on CI-21 has been extensively coordinated for many, many months, and, as can be seen from the text that follows, builds on the old NACIC concept and overlays it with integrated inter-departmental coordination, a single individual to be the point man/person (or "czar"), and abundant opportunities to either be a brilliant success or merely an added bureaucratic layer.

The substance of the White House release on 5 January 2001 is provided below.

The PDD on CI-21 directs the following structure be established to continue the task of improving U.S. counterintelligence effectiveness:

(1) National Counterintelligence Board of Directors

--- A National Counterintelligence Board of Directors, chaired by the Director, FBI and composed of the Deputy Secretary of Defense, Deputy Director of Central Intelligence and a senior representative of the Department of Justice is hereby established.

--- The Board, chaired by the Director of the FBI, will operate by consensus, and will select, oversee and evaluate the National Counterintelligence Executive (CI Executive) and will promulgate the mission, role and responsibilities of the CI Executive.

--- The Board will approve the National Counterintelligence Strategy drawn from the annual National Threat Identification and Prioritization Assessment, ensuring the integration of government and private sector interests.

--- The Board working with Congress, OMB, and other Executive Branch agencies, will ensure the CI Executive has adequate resources to carry out his/her responsibilities and duties.

(2) National Security Council (NSC) Deputies Committee

--- The NSC Deputies Committee, to include the Director of the FBI, will review the annual National Threat Identification and Prioritization Assessment and will meet at least semiannually, to review progress in implementing the National Counter-intelligence Strategy.

--- The Deputies Committee will ensure that the strategy, priorities and activities of the CI Community are grounded in national policy goals and objectives; the Deputies Committee shall also ensure that CI analysis and information is provided to assist national policy deliberations as appropriate. The Board of Directors through the CI Executive will be responsible for ensuring the implementation of these decisions.

(3) The National Counterintelligence Executive

--- The position of CI Executive is established and empowered to execute certain responsibilities on behalf of the Board of Directors and will serve as the substantive leader of national-level counter-intelligence. The CI Executive will be a federal employee, selected by the Board of Directors with the concurrence of the Attorney General, DCI and the Secretary of Defense.

--- The CI Executive will report to the FBI Director, as Chairman of the Board of Directors, but will be responsible to the Board of Directors as a whole. The Board will, through the Chairman, oversee and evaluate the CI Executive.

--- The CI Executive and the National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection and Counter-terrorism will work together to insure that both of their programs are well coordinated with each other.

--- The CI Executive, in carrying out the duties and responsibilities of the position, will advise members of the Board on counterintelligence programs and policies.

(4) The National Counterintelligence Policy Board

--- The CI Executive will chair the National Counterintelligence Policy Board. Senior counterintelligence officials from State, Defense, Justice, Energy, JCS, CIA, FBI and NSC Staff, at a minimum will serve on the Policy Board. The NSC Deputies Committee will approve the composition, functions and duties of the Policy Board which will be consistent with the statutorily defined functions of the Policy Board.

---The Policy Board will establish, with the approval of the Board of Directors, other interagency boards and working groups as necessary.

--- The Policy Board, under the chairmanship of the CI Executive, will serve as an Interagency Working Group to prepare issues relating to the full implementation of this PDD for Deputies discussions and review, as well as a forum to provide advice to the CI Executive on priorities with respect to the National Counterintelligence Strategy.

(5) Office of the CI Executive

--- The CI Executive, on behalf of the Board of Directors, will head the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive, which will among its other functions assume the functions previously exercised by the NACIC (National Counterintelligence Center). To the extent permitted by law, resources previously assigned to the NACIC will become the initial resource base for the Office of the CI Executive. The Office will develop and deploy the following capabilities:

(a) National CI Strategic Planning

--- The Office, in consultation with United States government agencies and the private sector, will produce an annual report entitled The National Threat Identification and Prioritization Assessment for review by the Deputies Committee.

--- The Office, drawing on this Assessment and working with the policy community, appropriate Government counterintelligence organizations and the private sector, will formulate and, subject to the approval of the Board of Directors, publish the National Counterintelligence Strategy.

(b) National CI Strategic Analysis

--- The Office will oversee and coordinate the production of strategic national CI analysis and will be supported in this endeavor by all components of the Executive Branch.

--- The Office will oversee and coordinate the production of CI damage assessments and "lessons learned" papers with full support from Executive Branch components.

(c) National CI Program Budget and Evaluation

--- The Office, working with the DCI's Community Management Staff, will review, evaluate, and coordinate the integration of CI budget and resource plans of, initially, the DOD, CIA and FBI. It will report to the Board of Directors and the Deputies Committee on how those plans meet the objectives and priorities of the National CI Strategy.

--- The Office will evaluate the implementation of the National CI Strategy by the CI community agencies and report to the Board of Directors and Deputies Committee. The Office will also identify shortfalls, gaps and weaknesses in agency programs and recommend remedies.

(d) National CI Collection and Targeting Coordination

--- The Office will develop for approval by the Board of Directors strategic CI investigative, operational and collection objectives and priorities that implement the National CI Strategy.

--- The Office will not have an operational role in CI operations and investigations and no independent contacts or activities with foreign intelligence services.

(e) National CI Outreach, Watch and Warning Capability

--- The Office will conduct and coordinate CI vulnerability surveys throughout government, and with the private sector as appropriate, while working with the Security Policy community. It will engage government and private sector entities to identify more clearly and completely what must be protected.

--- The Office will conduct and coordinate CI community outreach programs in the government and private sector. It will serve as the national coordination mechanism for issuing warnings of counterintelligence threats to the national security.

--- The Office will work with various government and private sector R&D centers to explore technology needs and solutions for the CI community. The Office will ensure that emerging technology and products and services are used effectively.

--- In addition, the Office will develop policies for CI training and professional development for CI investigators, operators, and analysts. It will also develop and manage joint training exercises, and assess the need for a National CI Training Academy. Also, the CI Executive and the Office will have a Principal Legal Advisor who will ensure that all activities of the Executive and the office comport with the law, Executive Orders and Attorney General Guidelines.

(6) The Principal Legal Advisor will provide advice and counsel to the Executive and the Office regarding national security law issues. The Advisor will coordinate with the appropriate law enforcement, intelligence and defense agencies' General Counsels and Legal Advisors in providing legal advice, guidance and representation to the Executive and the Office. (Jonkers)

http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/messageboard/mbs.cgi?acct=mb1075995   Also:< APFN@apfn.org >

SECTION II -- CONTEXT AND PRECEDENT

GLOBAL HAWK RECONNAISSANCE --. Recently a Global Hawk took off from Eglin Air Force Base in Florida, flew non-stop along the east coast, crossed the Atlantic to Portugal, and finally flew back to Eglin, a 29-hour test flight that set an endurance record. The entire mission to Portugal was programmed on a laptop and downloaded to the UAV's main controls. The vehicle's sensor suite took hundreds of detailed radar and infrared images enroute and transmitted them via satellite to Ft. Bragg, N.C. and to the aircraft carrier George Washington underway in the Atlantic. Resolution of photographic images capable of distinguishing vehicle tire tracks from 65,000 feet is claimed for the bird.

While still undergoing flight tests at Edwards Air Force Base, the performance of the UAV has exceeded expectations according to military officials and industry analysts. The Air Force proposes to buy 66 of the craft with the unit cost to drop from the current $51 million to about $20 million with full scale production. A recent request to add $1 billion to the AF budget over the next five years to speed up production was turned down in part due to the resistance encountered from some commanders [usually rated pilots] who advocate a cautious approach to the UAV's development. While expected to replace the U-2s over the years, the U-2 presently can carry double the UAV payload. The AF goal is to quickly increase the Global Hawk's capabilities to match the U-2's.

A major advantage for the UAV is the ability to hover in the vicinity of a target for 24 hours, and without risking a pilot. Critics claim the bird cannot react as rapidly or flexibly as a pilot in changing circumstances, but supporters note the ground-based operator monitoring the flight can easily alter the flight or take control if evasive action becomes necessary. The craft is equipped with a device that can detect enemy radar and can deploy several towed decoys to divert high-altitude missiles fired from an enemy fighter or from ground launchers. Despite its excellent development performance thus far, it is far from likely that the UAV will be a rapid replacement for the U-2s given the limitations of its sensor suite, the reluctance of pilots to embrace a pilotless platform, the costs of the vehicles, and the sturdy performance record of the U-2s. ( LA Times 7 Jan '01, p. C1 by Peter Pae) (Harvey)

FBI INTERCEPTS NOT USEFUL FOR WARNING -- According to evidence presented in the ongoing espionage trial of Cuban spies in Miami, the FBI had the alleged spies under surveillance for some time and were routinely intercepting communications between Havana and the Cuban intelligence operatives in Miami who had infiltrated "Brothers to the Rescue" and other Cuban-American organizations. While the intercepts did not say definitely there would be a shootdown on February 24th, the Cuban agents were warned not to fly in Brothers aircraft on Feb 24-27.

Apparently, that information was not forwarded to the White House or otherwise distributed within the US intelligence or policy communities. Instead, it went into an FBI investigations file and stayed there until it was released last week in the Miami courtroom. White House policymakers say they would probably have been treating both Cuba and the Brothers differently had they known of the FBI intercepts. The story illustrates a long standing and continuing difference between the culture of law enforcement and that of intelligence. Law enforcement tends to keep its secret info locked up in a single investigations file tied to one specific case that may, someday, go to trial. Intelligence, on the other hand, sees itself as an information service for the entire US government rather than one investigation, and distributes info widely to policymakers. (jdmac)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46092-2000Dec23.html

ALLEGED BIN LADEN ALLY LOSES FIGHT TO SUPPRESS EVIDENCE -- Evidence taken from illegally tapped telephones may be used in the trial of a U.S. citizen, Wadih El-Hage, charged in the 1998 bombings of US embassies in Africa, a federal judge in New York has ruled. This is an interesting case at the intersection of intelligence and law enforcement. [The phone tapping was by US intelligence in Kenya and without a warrant, which would be routine and legal (according to US law) if El-Hage was a foreigner. Presumably, US intelligence suspected him of being a terrorist but did not realize he was also an American citizen so they did not get a FISA warrant. --jdmac]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A29409-2000Dec19.html
http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2000_hr/HPSCI_04122000/index.htm

THE SHKVAL TORPEDO SAGA -- ANOTHER VIEW -- A glimpse of the intrigues surrounding the case of Captain (USN ret) Edmond Pope was revealed in the press recently. Captain Pope, a retired Naval intelligence officer colleague specializing during his active service in Soviet materiel analysis and acquisition, was of course arrested by the Russian security service, accused of espionage, convicted, sentenced to 20 years, and pardoned. He was in Russia trying to buy information -- on the "open market," for commercial application -- on the revolutionary new Russian Shkval torpedo, said to be capable of underwater speeds up to 300 km/hour (unconfirmed information).

A new weapons systems technology is, of course, of utmost interest to all major powers, including the US.  Canadian intelligence has (or had during the past year) an operation going to obtain a handful of these torpedoes from a defense plant in the former Soviet Republic (now "independent") Kyrgizstan, with US intelligence cognizance. There was alleged to have been US Navy intelligence interest in Captain Pope's success in buying relevant information on the open market in Russia and creating joint ventures to exploit the new technology.

It is clear that Captain Pope, the first American to be convicted of espionage in Russia in the past 40 years, wittingly or unwittingly was fishing in muddy waters, operating in a high risk gray area. It is also clear that if the Shkval technology is so revolutionary, US Intelligence would be seriously at fault if it had not already satisfied the need for intelligence on this weapons system some time ago, when Russia was in a state of moral and physical collapse, and everything for sale. It is a cliché to say that states such as China, Israel, France, Russia and the US etc -- need to discover these types of secrets of each other. It is equally imperative for each to do its utmost to protect its secrets. This "silent war" is best without public hysteria or revelations. (WashPost 3 Jan2001, p. A1 // J. Mintz) (Jonkers)

TERRORISTS PLANNED SPECTACULAR FOR LAST JANUARY -- Islamic militants headed by Osama bin Laden appear to have planned a spectacular three-country attack in January 2000 that would have included multiple bombings in Jordan and the United States and the sinking of a US destroyer in Yemen, according to the Clinton administration's counterterrorism chief. The attacks, planned for last January, either failed or were thwarted by arrests - probably because of good intelligence. --jdmac]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43852-2000Dec23.html

NEITHER ISRAELI SPY JONATHAN POLLARD NOR INDIAN ACTIVIST (and FBI Agent killer) LEONARD PELTIER HAVE BEEN GRANTED CLEMENCY -- YET. (jdmac)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43524-2000Dec22.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12649-2000Dec15.html

ISRAEL ACKNOWLEDGES "LIQUIDATION POLICY." Senior Israeli military officials have acknowledged a "liquidations" policy, a tactic of hunting down and murdering individually targeted Palestinians. This is not news, but merely a reiteration of long-standing Israeli practices in Palestine and elsewhere. (jdmac) http://www.nytimes.com/2000/12/22/world/22ISRA.html

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION CENTER (NIPC) THREAT WARNING REPORT -- The W32/ProLin@MM Internet worm (Shockwave) currently represents a medium threat in the United States. Shockwave worm arrives as an attachment to an email message with the subject "A great Shockwave flash movie." The body of the message contains the text "Check out this new flash movie that I downloaded just now...It's Great, Bye". The anti-virus software industry has created and released a Data file that will detect and remove the malicious code from the infected system. Full descriptions and removal instructions can be found at:
http://www.symantec.com
http://www.vil.nai.com
http://www.antivirus.com
http://www.fsecure.com
http://www.sophos.com
Additional information on NIPC and NIPC Advisories is available at: http://www.nipc.gov

This is an FBI Awareness of National Security Issues and Response (ANSIR) report. Recipients are asked to report, actual or suspected, criminal activity to the FBI or other law enforcement agencies as appropriate. Incidents may be reported online at http://www.nipc.gov/incident/cirr.htm  (Special Agent G. Harter)

SECTION IV - PUBLICATIONS

GEORGE TENET ON GLOBAL TRENDS 2015 (see WIN 01-01) -- "I am pleased to announce Global Trends 2015, which takes a look at the world over the next 15 years from the perspective of the national security policymaker. This is not a traditional intelligence assessment, depending on classified sources and methods. Rather, it reflects an Intelligence Community fully engaged with outside experts in a constructive dialogue about the future. I want to encourage this lively exchange. From the beginning of this ambitious project in fall 1999, we intended to make GT-2015 an unclassified assessment to be shared with the public. Experts from academia, think-tanks and the corporate world have made major contributions, and their reactions, along with those of other specialists who will see our work for the first time, will strengthen our continuing analysis of the issues covered in GT-2015. Grappling with the future is necessarily a work in progress that, I believe, should constantly seek new insights while testing and revising old judgments. I hope that GT-2015 will contribute to a growing strategic dialogue in the US Government that will help our country meet the challenges and opportunities ahead." (Jonkers)
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/index.html
http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/press_release/pr12182000.html

MORE GLOBAL TRENDS 2015 - COMMENTARY -- David Ignatius, writing in the Washington Post, commented on the study covered in last week's WIN, and one relevant excerpt is presented here:

The study lends some support to the new administration's pet project of national missile defense. "The probability that a missile armed with WMD [a nuclear, chemical or biological weapon of mass destruction] would be used against U.S. forces is higher today than during most of the Cold War and will continue to grow," the CIA predicts.

But the survey also notes that intercontinental ballistic missiles, which a missile defense system would guard against, may not be America's biggest worry. The real threat may come from cheaper delivery systems -- from short-range missiles to cruise missiles to suitcase bombs. "The likelihood of an attack by these means is greater than that of a WMD attack with an ICBM," the study says.

The CIA study looks forward (if that's the right word) to an eventual "cold peace" between Israel and the Palestinians. But it also suggests that Israel's torment with the Palestinian intifada may be a taste of things to come for America and the rest of the developed world.

As recent months have shown, even a modern, prosperous nuclear-armed country such as Israel can be dragged down by prolonged, low-level conflict. Add in biological weapons or the ability to disrupt global information systems and you have a future that makes the problems of 25 years ago -- the ones that Cheney, Rumsfeld and Powell learned to combat -- seem simple indeed. Thinking about the world of 2015 makes you realize that this really is transition time. (WashPost 31 Dec2000, p. B7) (Jonkers)

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS: TESTIMONY OF DR KENNETH ALIBEK, Former Deputy Director of the Soviet biological weapons program who defected to the US in 1992. (jdmac)
http://www.house.gov/hasc/testimony/106thcongress/99-10-20alibek.htm

THE DIA WEBSITE HAS BEEN MUCH UPGRADED.
http://www.dia.mil/   (jdmac)

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Opinions expressed are those of the Editor or the Associate Editors, each of whom has a perspective based on fifty years or so of professional experience on behalf of US national security.

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