Weekly Intelligence Notes #05-01
5 February 2001

WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN) 
05-01 dated 5 February 2001

WINs contain intelligence notes and commentaries selected, edited and produced by Roy Jonkers, with contributions by Associate editors John Macartney and Don Harvey.

Warning Notice: Perishability of Links:  WINs, sent weekly to members, often contain numerous webpage links to fast-breaking news, documents or other items of interest; unfortunately, after four weeks many of these websites [especially newspaper and other media sites] remove items or shift them into fee-only archives.  This underscores the benefit of receiving the WINs as they are released.

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SECTION I -- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

USS COLE COMMISSION STRESSES NEED FOR IMPROVED INTELLIGENCE -- The unclassified Defense Department USS Cole Commission Report was released 9 January 2001. Former SecDef Cohen requested the report following the Oct. 12, 2000, bombing of the USS Cole in Aden, Yemen, that killed 17 sailors and injured 39. The 30-member USS Cole Commission examined five areas: organization, antiterrorism and force protection, intelligence, logistics and training. The report lists 30 findings within these areas and accompanying recommendations.
     A major issue was that the USS Cole was not provided with specific intelligence tailored to its visit to Aden. This was found to be a shortfall for all ships in transit. "There was not specific intelligence communicated to the captain of the ship; the warnings that were received were general in nature and not directed against this ship; and they preceded this tragedy at least a month prior to that time." One of the recommendations therefore was to place much greater priority on intelligence focused specifically on ships or units in transit through hazardous areas.
     The commission found no credible intelligence existed that could have predicted this attack. The commissioners noted that transiting ships do not have enough intelligence analysts, but rely on support from outside agencies. "We recommend that the theater intelligence centers dedicate resources to focus on tracking, watching and advising these transiting units as to the risks into the areas in which they are going." By the same token, commanders of units in transit need to be better trained to demand this type of intelligence support.
     General Gehlman, co-chairman of the Commission, praised DoD and the intelligence community for shifting analysis resources to the anti-terrorism mission. He said these efforts must continue and grow, particularly assets related to human and signals intelligence. The commission made 13 anti-terrorism/force protection recommendations. It also recommended the Secretary of Defense consolidate all functions related to combating terrorism under one individual at the Assistant Secretary of Defense level.
(SecDef Pres conf 10Jan01//Sgt K. Rhem DEFENSE-PRESS-SERVICE-L@DTIC.MIL http://www.defenselink.mil/news/#News ArticlesCourtesy Carl Griffith) (Jonkers)

SECTION II -- CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

RUMSFELD SPACE POWER COMMISSION REPORT -- There is a great deal of press coverage on the new administration's missile defense plans, but the Space dimension looms much larger than that, both in terms of national strategy and intelligence community implications. An important report on space strategy, nicknamed the Rumsfeld Commission Report, was published on 11 January 2001, inquiring into the ways and means necessary to insure that the US remain pre-eminent in space (see WIN 04-01). The commission's view was that the U.S. has been muddling along, taking its pre-eminence for granted, and leaving itself vulnerable to "a space Pearl Harbor" while other nations have been developing space programs apace. Space is a "vital national interest," said retired Admiral David Jeremiah, who served on the panel. "We need higher expectations and more emphasis on DOING than on 'word-smithing'."
     Among the commission's recommendations are development of defenses for our satellites, a fast-track program to develop a space-launch capability that can compete with the French and the Chinese, and better incentives for American students to study technology and engineering. But the heart of the report is its recommendations for restructuring the myriad Defense Department, Military and Intelligence bodies responsible for space programs with the aim of forcing them to work together more closely.
     Toward that end, the commission recommends the establishment of a Presidential Space Advisory Board, similar to the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. It would be made up of experts from industry, government and science and would advise the President on what's technologically feasible. And while the commission stops short of calling for the creation of a separate SPACE FORCE, it makes it clear that that's probably not too far off. Most of the commission's recommendations for reorganization can be implemented rapidly.
     The commission speaks plainly about weapons in space and arms control: Weapons in space are inevitable, it says, and the U.S. ought to review existing arms control obligations that get in the way of deploying a space-based deterrent. Added Admiral Jeremiah: "We'll have to be organized to do some kind of warfare in space." We're not organized now.
     Anyone who doubts that space is where this century's wars will take place would do well to take a look at, for example, the Chinese space program. The Hong Kong newspaper Sing Tao Daily reported last week on China's ground test of a satellite weapon called a "parasite satellite." This is a micro-satellite that could attach itself to just about any type of satellite with the object of jamming or destroying it if it received a command to do so. And China' is not the only country working on micro-satellites (the US, not unsurprisingly, is also reported to be in the micro-satellite game).
     Even more important than better management of space, the panel says, "the critical need is national leadership to elevate space on the national security agenda." The new Secretary of Defense would appear to be in a fine position to ensure the panel's words will lead to action. The implications for intelligence are, of course, immense. (Wash Post 9 Jan '01, p. 24 /// Walter Pincus; Wall Street Journal 12 Jan '01, p. 18, editorial) (Harvey/Jonkers)

US CAPABILITIES AND VULNERABILITIES IN SPACE -- ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE -- Building on the first "space-based" war, the Persian Gulf conflict, U.S. troops in Kosovo leaned heavily on satellites for intelligence, missile warning, communication, weather, navigation and precision-guided munitions. "Many people feel the military has no business in space. Of course, the military is there, in spades," former U.S. Space Command chief Charles Horner said recently. "Our military forces are so dependent on space that it's created a vulnerability for us. ... We may be faced with a Pearl Harbor in space." At the same time, civilians have become increasingly dependent on commercial satellites for TV, Internet, satellite phones, pagers etc.
     Since the end of the Cold War, when Russia sharply scaled back its space program, the United States has been unchallenged in space. It employs and controls 80% of all military satellites . By the same token, no other nation is as dependent on space satellites for reconnaissance, intelligence, communications, and geo-positioning, among other uses. In addition, a growing fleet of commercial satellites represent a vast array of technologies that are inextricably entwined with the nation's economic well-being.
     According to the U.S. Space Command, the United States has slightly more than 300 active satellites. Of those, 60% are commercial, 20% are military and 20% belong to civilian government agencies. Other nations such as China, Russia, Japan and India have their own military reconnaissance satellites. There are currently about 750 active military, commercial and civilian satellites worldwide, and this number will expand as networks of micro-satellites are launched. We are entering a new Millennium -- of space warfare. (USA Today 11 Jan 01, p.5 // A. Stone and D. Vergano) (Jonkers)

US AIR FORCE FORMS COUNTERSPACE TECHNOLOGY UNIT - Concepts of futuristic offensive and defensive counter-space weapon systems will soon be taken out of the lab and put to the test with the activation of the 76th Space Control Squadron at Peterson Air Force Base. The new squadron became part of the 21st Space Wing on an. 22, 2001. .(Space Daily, 22 Jan 01) Zgram 25Jan, (courtesy Allen Thomson) < http://www.spacer.com/news/milspace-01c.html >

SECTION III - BOOKS AND SOURCES

DELIVER US FROM EVIL: Peacekeepers, Warlords & A World of Endless Conflict, by William Shawcross, Simon & Schuster, 2000 (ISBN 684 83233-x), describes a dozen recent emergencies and their complexities, including the role of commercial interests in crises, stoking the fires of nationalism, turning conflicts to their advantage. Shawcross traces the history of relief strategies that now promote a permanent livelihood for relief organizations, no longer just acting as temporary band-aid. He reflects on the system of relief operations which are invariably "hampered by slow deployment... and require more & more a need for military protection of humanitarian operations," and where "voluntary agency staff (are) too young and inexperienced, resulting in a lack of institutional memory."
      Shawcross covers many conflict zones, including Sierra Leone where the economy has been greatly linked to outside commercial interests: "Lebanese traders and merchants seduced, corrupted and controlled almost all commerce in the country." In Zaire he observes "the dark stain of atrocity spreading hidden beneath the jungle canopy...a story as involving genocidal attacks against refugees (from Rwanda) some of whom were guilty of genocide themselves; and Western businessmen with mobile telephones and an intense desire to follow the victors and fix new contracts for exploiting Zaire's diamond & copper mines." The book provides a perspective and context for a segment of US military and political operations that has required a great deal of intelligence activity.(Jonkers)

BETRAYAL OF TRUST: THE COLLAPSE OF GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH, by Laurie Garrett, Hyperion, NY 2000, builds on Garret's earlier The Coming Plague, this time telling blow-by-blow the story of recent infectious disease crises, including TB in Russia, Ebola in Zaire [and now in Canada], and plague in India (1994). Garrett argues passionately that governments have forgotten the lessons of how public health changed the world's health situation over the centuries. She calls for renewed attention to the "basic factors essential to population health: clear water, plentiful food; housing; waste disposal; social & medical control of epidemics; widespread, universal access to maternal & child health care; and a health care system."
       Garrett concludes with the prediction shared with many experts that within a few decades, "viruses, bacteria & fungi will have evolved complete resistance to the human pharmaceutical arsenal." This book is useful reading in the context of the biological terrorism scare and medical intelligence as well as policy. (Jonkers)

MEMOIRS OF DAME STELLA REMINGTON, FORMER DIRECTOR OF M.I.5. This book, which has riled up British security agencies, has been going through pre-publication review for the past several months and is expected to be published soon. A spin off from this controversy is a possible revision of Britain's Official Secrets Act.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=003633010248390&rtmo=0xsibbrq&
atmo=rrrrrrvs&pg=/et/00/12/27/nstel27.html

http://www.the-journal.co.uk/cfm/newsstory.cfm?StoryId=221735
http://www.observer.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,6903,416570,00.html   (Macartney)

NEW EDITION TEXTBOOK:
SILENT WARFARE: UNDERSTANDING THE WORLD OF INTELLIGENCE
, 3rd Ed, by Abe Shulsky with Gary Schmitt, Brassey's, March 2001. This [Roy Godson sponsored] book was originally published in 1991 and was followed by a 2nd edition and then a Revised 2nd edition in 1993. An excellent work, it was the mainstay textbook for college courses on intelligence throughout the 1990's and will be out in a new edition in March. [Al Buckelew]

SECTION IV -- LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
(1) Allen E writes: Re the WIN letter, "John M. on HUMINT" -

   . . .while I do not disagree with Murphy's analysis that HUMINT operators on the ground are needed in Third World countries in order to know in advance what is brewing, what makes him think that the CIA doesn't have recruited, native speakers on the ground in these places? Having served in a few of these places during my career, I can attest that the Agency always had a variety of such agents on the ground, even in the most remote places.
   Of course, that was then and this is now. But I simply cannot accept that the agency today has lost sight of their raison d'Ítre and no longer follows the first rule of intelligence gathering. You may not read about it in the newspapers, but I would be willing to bet that the CIA has those assets in place and reporting regularly. As anyone knows who has worked in intelligence, what we report isn't necessarily acted on by the President or senior policy makers. Political considerations always play a prominent role, and must be balanced against potential loss in other areas.
     Mr. Murphy rightfully is highly complimentary of the British foreign service and their long history of intelligence gathering in the Third World, an accomplishment that kept them in control for many decades. He mentions that, "British Indian intelligence files are still closed after 100 years." Just try doing that with the CIA intelligence files that are required by law to be reviewed for declassification after 25 years! Granted, some things are still kept SECRET but even releasing documents that are partially declassified, with only words or a few sentences redacted, gives the opposition far more information than is necessary to piece together the broad outline of our operational interests. ED. NOTE: Amen to that last point! (Jonkers)

(2) Robert S. writes: Ref. CHINESE "ESPIONAGE HANDBOOK TELLS HOW EASY WE ARE" -

   What Gertz fails to mention is that the book (not handbook -- a published book) received a Library of Congress ISBN number eight years ago -- and presumably two copies have been in the Library of Congress holdings for eight years. And how interesting that our counterintelligence experts find it "startling" that China relies on open source information (OSINT) for 80% of its intelligence on critical US programs! ( www.oss.net )

SECTION V - MISCELLANEOUS

AFIO PRESIDENT SPEAKS AT SMITHSONIAN - One of the many ways in which AFIO members contribute to AFIO mission accomplishment is by public speaking. President Gene Poteat is leading the charge, following in his predecessors footsteps. . He presented a lecture (cleared by CIA, NRO and NSA) at the Smithsonian on 5 February 2001 on technical intelligence developments during the Cold War, a presentation that was, according to several individuals present (in a sold-out house), a smashing success. Congrats to Gene, and to all our other members who participate actively in the public realm to provide balance and solid perspective on the contributions of intelligence to the national security and well-being.


 

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