Weekly Intelligence Notes #07-01
19 February 2001

WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN) 
07-01 dated 19 February 2001

WINs contain selected intelligence notes and commentaries produced by Roy Jonkers, with contributions by Associate editors John Macartney and Don Harvey.
This WIN was delayed by AFIO internal meeting requirements. The next WIN will follow shortly.

Warning Notice: Perishability of Links:  WINs, sent weekly to members, often contain numerous webpage links to fast-breaking news, documents or other items of interest; unfortunately, after four weeks many of these websites [especially newspaper and other media sites] remove items or shift them into fee-only archives.  This underscores the benefit of receiving the WINs as they are released.

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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

BREAKING NEWS: FBI AGENT ARRESTED FOR ESPIONAGE -- Robert Hanssen, a 27-year veteran of FBI counterintelligence, was arrested Sunday, after servicing a "dead drop." Hanssen is charged with having spied for the Russians for more than 15 years. This sad case will be further discussed in WIN 08-01 next week.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A28763-2001Feb20.html
(Jonkers)

TWO MORE ARRESTED IN COLE ATTACK -- Two more suspects have been arrested in the bombing of the USS Cole, but, according to Yemen's President , there is no evidence that bin Laden was behind the kamikaze attack. The Arab suspects were detained two days ago when they returned to Yemen from Afghanistan. President Ali Abdallah Salih said that the main suspect and an accomplice in the October attack were still at large and believed to be living in Afghanistan. "But we have no evidence or confessions linking" bin Laden to the attack. He further noted that the cases of five or six detainees had been sent to a Yemeni prosecutor, but U.S. officials had asked for the trial to be delayed until the main suspects were arrested. Bin Laden, also accused by Washington of masterminding the 1998 bombings of two U.S. embassies in Africa, has denied involvement in the attack on the Cole. (WashPost 19Feb p.28 //AP) (Jonkers)

RUSSIAN TACTICAL NUKES DEPLOYED TO KALININGRAD -- On January 3rd, Bill Gertz reported in the Washington Times that Russian tactical nuclear warheads had been deployed to the Russian enclave on the Baltic, Kaliningrad. On Feb 15, Gertz had another story on the subject. This time he pinpointed satellite imagery of June 3 and June 6 as the confirmation to US intelligence that nukes were going to Kaliningrad -- there is no longer any doubt about it among US officials, he wrote. Furthermore (and most interesting), Gertz wrote on Feb 15 that the information was not sent to policymakers until December - six months after the imagery was taken. Intelligence Community officials deny this alleged withholding of intelligence. After the first Gertz press revelation on January 3, the State Dept felt it had to send a diplomatic note to Moscow - which brought denials. The Feb 15 report will rub more salt into that wound -- which was probably the intention of the US official or officials who leaked the info to Gertz. -(Macartney)]
http://www.washtimes.com/national/default-2001215224952.htm
http://www.washtimes.com/national/inring-200121621294.htm

REP BARR (R-Ga) WOULD RESTORE US LICENSE TO KILL -- For the 2nd year in row, Rep Bob Barr has introduced legislation, "The Terrorist Elimination Act," that would repeal several executive orders that have, since 1976, prohibited employees of the US Government, including any element of the US Intelligence Community, from taking part in or abetting a political assassination. The proposed bill has no co-sponsors and will not go anywhere. Except for Barr, almost no one else in Congress, the Executive Branch or the Intelligence Community wants to see the US get into the assassination business.
http://www.washtimes.com/world/default-200129212114.htm (Macartney)

ISRAELI HELICOPTER GUNSHIPS ASSASSINATE SENIOR ARAFAT AIDE -- Masoud Ayyad, a LtCol in Yasser Arafat's personal security detail, was targeted and killed in Gaza by missiles from helicopter gunships fired at his automobile. Although Israel has apparently assassinated at least a dozen Palestinians in the past 2 or 3 months, this is the first one they have acknowledged and explained.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A15175-2001Feb16.html
(Macartney)

POLICE FOIL NERVE GAS PLOT AGAINST LONDON UNDERGROUND -- According to this news story, British police have foiled a terrorist scheme to release sarin gas in the London subway system.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=003633010248390&rtmo=0x2RKxbq&atmo=
rrrrrrvs&pg=/et/01/2/18/nsar18
(Macartney)

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

CIA RECOMMENDATION IGNORED -- "One senior intelligence officer" was the unidentified source of the recent report that the White House had solicited, and then overrode, CIA's recommendation on the pardoning of the former intelligence analyst, Samuel L. Morison. The only government official ever convicted of leaking classified information to the media, Morison had provided three secret satellite photos of a Soviet aircraft carrier in a Northern Fleet harbor to Jane's Defence Weekly. "We said we were obviously opposed -- it was a vigorous 'Hell,no'," said the intelligence official. "We think giving classified information to people who are unauthorized to receive it is a bad thing to do and giving pardons to people who are convicted of doing that sends the wrong signal to people who are currently entrusted with classified information."
     Senator C. Shelby, the SSCI Chairman, has launched an inquiry into both the Morison and the former DCI Deutch pardons; the chairman said the Morison pardon would do nothing to stop a torrent of media leaks in Washington and only underscores the need for new legislation explicitly criminalizing leaks. Conversely, the director of the Federation of American Scientists' project on government secrecy, Steven Aftergood, called the pardon "an act of moral courage." The Aftergood favorable evaluation of the Clinton pardon action is distinguished by its uniqueness. (Washington Post 17 Feb '01, p. A6) (Harvey)

GERMAN INTELLIGENCE ALLEGEDLY WEIGHS IN ON MISSILE DEFENSE -- The Bush Administration received support from different source regarding its anti-missile shield campaign. The German intelligence service, the BND, allegedly leaked an intelligence report to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that suggests Berlin and Munich could be within target range of Saddam Hussein's (hypothetical) postulated missiles. The leaked report noted that Iraq was using familiar middlemen and new procurement channels to buy missile components and was estimated to be close again to producing missiles. The alleged BND report hypothesized that by 2005 Iraq might be able to launch a missile with at least one kilogram of anthrax bacteria - the suicidal insane-dictator threat scenario. The newspaper also reported that (aside from Israel), nine countries in the Middle East are developing missiles. Two ground-to-ground missiles are in production in Iran currently, and five states tested missiles last year. It would appear the (politically attuned) BND has heard enough of German leaders sympathizing with the Russian anti-missile defense line and is trying to keep the German government focused on the potential small-state threat rather than Russian and Chinese anxieties. (London Times 16 Feb '01 // Roger Boyes) (Harvey)

PRESIDENTIAL DIRECTIVES AND BRIEFS -- The National Security Council has refused to release the unclassified text of the Bush Administration's first "National Security Presidential Directive." Presidential directives are a largely unaccountable instrument of executive authority. They are used to establish and implement national security policy, and they often authorize the commitment of government resources. They are usually classified and Congress is not routinely notified of their existence or contents. The previous Bush Administration did not declassify any of its presidential directives in its first three years, although several have been declassified since then. President Clinton did authorize release of his first two "Presidential Decision Directives," in 1993, but his later directives remain classified.
            In a related matter, DCI George Tenet remains firm in his position that the President's Daily Briefs may not be released for publication" no matter how old or historically significant they may be. The President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB) further holds that it "owns" the documents of its predecessor agencies and opposes the documents' release. For historians trying to explain US foreign policy, this is a handicap. For national security, however, it is essential to maintain confidentiality for at least a half century or sometimes more.
http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/direct.htm
http://www.fas.org/sgp/advisory/state/hac0700.html
(Jonkers)

SECTION III - CYBER NEWS

US CYBER-TERRORISM LEGISLATION PROPOSED -- Reps. James Saxton, R-N.J., and Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., this week introduced legislation that calls on the government to develop a new legal framework to prosecute hackers and other Internet criminals. Saxton and Chambliss offered a House resolution that also labels cyber-terrorism "an emerging threat to the national security of the United States which has the potentiality to cause great harm to the nation's critical infrastructure..." The resolution also calls for a public-private industry partnership to combat cyber-crime, and a multi-agency study to assess the threat of cyber-terrorism to the US. The study would be conducted by the Commerce and Defense Departments, along with the National Security Agency, the Central Intelligence Agency and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Cyber-crime is a high priority not only in the US at this time, but throughout the world. How to fight it is an issue that has received far from unanimous agreement, however.
     The Council of Europe has adopted a draft-cyber-crime treaty, but many privacy advocates as well as a number of corporate lobbying groups have signaled their opposition to it.
http://www.newsbytes.com/news/01/161746.html (Jonkers)

BRITISH CYBER TERRORISM LAW ADOPTED -- Computer hackers could be classed as terrorists under a UK law that came into force today. The Terrorism Act 2000 is designed to prevent dissident political groups from using the UK as a base for terrorism and recognizes a new threat from cyberterrorists for the first time. But the Act also significantly widens the definition of terrorism to include those actions that "seriously interfere with or seriously disrupt an electronic system". According to the Act this only applies to actions "designed to influence the government or to intimidate the public," but it will be up to police investigators to decide when this is the case. The Act gives police the power to detain suspects for 48-hours without a warrant.
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/2001/7/ns-21060.html
(Levine Newsbits 2/19)(Jonkers)

SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES

US ARMY INTELLIGENCE & SECURITY COMMAND ARCHIVES -- Interesting [international] files, slated for destruction this year under INSCOM's records retention policies, can be requested from the Army INSCOM by name and file number. This is the last chance you'll have to obtain any of this before it is shredded. To get any of these, or the list of documents available, send a letter, mentioning the Freedom of Information Act, to: Mr. Russell A. Nichols, Chief, Freedom of Information Act Office, United States Army Intelligence & Security Command, Fort George G. Meade, Md. 20755-5995 //or phone: 301-677-4501 or FAX: 1-301-677-2956 (Attn: Joanne Benear) (courtesy L. Sulc, J. Goulden, et.al) (Jonkers)

SECTION V -- LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

AFIO member Patrick Hughes (Lt General, USA ret), former Director DIA, recently published his perspectives on the urgent need for greater support to the US Intelligence Community. Using the editor's prerogative of reducing his eloquent remarks to a few salient points, he notes:

We must be realistic about the nature of the threats we face. Knowledge, the best we can get, unburdened by all but the burden of truth, is the first line of defense. We cannot afford, in this dangerous age, to absorb a blow that might take a million lives and disrupt our societal core. We must have information (intelligence) to empower our weapons and other capabilities. Intelligence is dependent on actions NOW to have benefit LATER. These include:

* People -- The key to improved intelligence is to get the very best people to do this vital work.

* Policy -- It is necessary to have a clear and unambiguous set of policies to govern the work of intelligence. It is more necessary than ever that our policies for the conduct of intelligence legally maximize the potential of our endeavors. It is important that these policies protect information and the means we use to gather it, so our ability to engage in the global environment can be sustained.

* Technology -- Every element of U.S. intelligence is in need of upgrading and revitalization.

* Leadership -- Revitalization demands inspired management and insightful leadership to maximize the return on our national investment. Information used as an internecine political weapon, and the politicization of intelligence at the national and departmental levels of government, must be eliminated.

* Money -- Personnel costs consume approximately 50 percent of the budget of each operating element of the intelligence community. There has been a steady increase in this percentile over the past 10 years. This "net" increase in the cost of sustaining the work force has reduced discretionary fiscal resources and has led to an annual contest between required capability and inadequate resources. How much is needed to revitalize the nation's intelligence capability while continuing its operations? In my view something in the neighborhood of an additional $1.5 billion to $2 billion annually over the next 10 years is necessary to meet national requirements.

* Solutions -- There are no clear or simple solutions. The beginning of the debate, led by the new administration, is critical if we are to prepare for and meet the coming threats and challenges. The goal is clear: revitalize and reorder the U.S. intelligence community to better meet the threats and challenges of the future. (LGEN Patrick M. Hughes, former Director DIA)

(Wash Times 31 Dec 2000; Jan 3, 2001, Current News Supplement: and Feb 4, 2001, pg B5) (Jonkers)

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For comments, contact the editor Roy Jonkers at  afio@afio.com 
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