Weekly Intelligence Notes #12-01
26 March 2001

WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE REPORT (WIN) 12-01 dtd 26 Mar 01

WINs are intelligence-related commentaries on open source information, produced and edited by Roy Jonkers.

Warning Notice: Perishability of Links:  WINs, sent weekly to members, often contain numerous webpage links to fast-breaking news, documents or other items of interest; unfortunately, after four weeks many of these websites [especially newspaper and other media sites] remove items or shift them into fee-only archives.  This underscores the benefit of receiving the WINs as they are released.

ATTEND/PUBLICIZE THE AFIO BUSINESS LAW SYMPOSIUM!

SPONSOR A NEW AFIO MEMBER!

Warning Notice: Perishability of Links:  WINs, sent weekly to members, often contain numerous webpage links to fast-breaking news, documents or other items of interest; unfortunately, after four weeks many of these websites [especially newspaper and other media sites] remove items or shift them into fee-only archives.  This underscores the benefit of receiving the WINs as they are released.


SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

NEW OVERHEAD COLLECTION SYSTEM -- "To develop, provide launch integration and operate the nation's next generation of imagery reconnaissance satellites" is about all the NRO has said on the record about a project launched a year ago called Future Imagery Architecture. A recent press item has fleshed out the outline of the massive endeavor by an aerospace team headed by the Boeing unit in Seal Beach, California. Estimates place the total cost of the program to launch a number of smaller imagery satellites at up to $25 billion over two decades. Equipped with telescopes and radar, the birds will be farther out in space and harder to detect than the current reconnaissance satellites. "...the most expensive program in the history of the intelligence community" is one think tank's description. The initial design and development alone will require 5,000 engineers, technicians and computer programmers over the next five years with estimates placing the eventual total at 20,000 jobs in California.
        The number of satellites involved in the program is estimated to be between 12 to 24, compared with the roughly six in orbit now. Each satellite will take up to 18 months to build and although significantly smaller and cheaper than current models, will weigh 15 tons and cost about $1 billion. One outside analyst guessed the size to be roughly one-third the present size. By using a higher orbit, it is expected a new satellite can linger for about 20 minutes in an area (double the present birds); as a system, it is hoped the new constellation can collect eight to 20 times more images that the current system. The article defines the current system as three optical Keyholes (imagery and infrared) and three Lacrosses ("radarsats" - which presumably means synthetic aperture radar).
        An NRO spokesman has stated the plan is to begin launching the satellites around 2005. The press account said nothing about what is to be done to process and analyze up to 20 times the current river of imagery, but Congress was reported to have complained of the lack of planning for processing when considering the program last year. Considering the abysmal performance over the years of the intelligence community to take full advantage of the data made available by the various collection systems, it can only be hoped that history is not prologue. (L A Times 18 Mar '01, p.1 / Peter Pae) (Harvey)

MACEDONIA -- The U.S. is said to be supporting the Government of Macedonia with intelligence, ostensibly gained from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV's) and helicopters hovering over the hills and mountains in Macedonia where Albanian nationalist extremists-cum-terrorists are located. These guerillas, formerly KLA, appear to operate from the U.S. zone of Kosovo, where U.S. policy has favored them and U.S. oversight has been benign. The insurgents have thrown Macedonian Government representatives out of several villages. Their aim is to take over Western Macedonia where Albanians make up the majority of the population, according to a self-described guerilla "general staff" member. He admitted that most of the current fighters also fought the Yugoslav forces in Kosovo.
        In Kosovo, three years ago, a similar expulsion of Yugoslav government forces from several villages and towns by ethnic Albanian KLA extremists evoked a brutal Yugoslav Government counter-terrorist operation . The U.S. then embraced the KLA terrorists, who, ironically, at the core represented criminal clans involved in heroin smuggling and prostitution trade, and had been assassinating Serbs and moderate Kosovars for at least a decade. As a further irony, these extremists obtained only 20% of the vote in elections, both before and after our intervention. But the U.S. Government, in its own ideological warp, and to justify a new role for NATO, unleashed a deadly air campaign against the Yugoslav civil infrastructure, and since then, we have winked at the Kosovar extremists' ethnic cleansing of Serbs and continued assassinations of Kosovar moderates. With the extremists now extending their terrorist campaign to Macedonia, our chickens are coming home to roost.
        The Macedonian government threatens an all-out offensive against the extremists. The U.S. Government now proclaims realism and U.S. national interests as central criteria for policymaking. There are indications that U.S. policies may be different this time, as shown by the reports of intelligence support to Macedonia. (WashPost 18Mar01, p.A21/Smith) (Jonkers)

ENERGY INTELLIGENCE -- Exxon Mobil has departed from one of the world's largest natural gas fields, under pressure of violence from local nationalist extremists in Aceh, northern Sumatra (Indonesia). Open source intelligence indicates that company vehicles have been hi-jacked some 50 times recently and that Exxon aircraft have been fired upon as they tried to land. So Exxon closed their on-shore fields and plants and evacuated their non-native employees on March 13th. The Indonesian government has responded to this potential loss of revenue by sending in more troops and ordering an offensive against the conservative Muslim insurgents, whose long-standing separatist aspirations used to bedevil the Dutch during colonial times as much they do the Indonesian government today. Martial law has been in force against the insurgents-cum-terrorists in Aceh since 1989, enforced by Indonesian troops, largely from Java, who frequently behaved brutally, including reports of rapes, torture and murder.
        Insurgencies, sometimes supported by the U.S., or sometimes designated as terrorism, frequently involve brutal behavior by Government forces, whether by Javanese in Aceh, Serbs in Kosovo, Israelis in Palestine, Russians in Chechnya, Turks against Kurds, Shri-Lankans against Tamils, or Indian troops in Kashmir, etc. etc. One trusts that the current climate of political realism in Washington will not lead to another ideological crusade and U.S. bombing campaign. One assumes that with the President's declared concern about energy and with Exxon's departure, Aceh has now made the intelligence watch list. (NYT/24Mar01, p.B14/Arnold; see also an essay on the Nature of Human Rights by Robin Fox in Harpers Magazine, April 2001, p.19) (Jonkers)

CHINESE SPY FOR U.S. DEFECTS -- PLA Colonel Xu Jumping defected while visiting the U.S. in December. SecState Powell acknowledged the case on 24 March, referring to a Chinese Foreign Ministry request to locate the officer last December. "We located that individual, made sure that the person was in good health, made the Chinese aware of his presence, and that's as far as I'd like to go on it." Colonel Xu may have useful information on how China is responding to American policies in the region.
        Business for CIA's defector resettlement operations appears to be booming, a further reminder of the need to avoid fomenting excessive and disproportionate public media anger or bureaucratic or political overkill about foreign espionage in the U.S. -- we need the best possible reasonable security measures and standards, we should despise the vermin that betray us, but it is also our job to run foreign agents in other countries -- including Russia and China, as the current flock of defectors indicates. We're all in this together. (NYT 24Mar01, p. A6/Risen) (Jonkers)

MISSILE DEFENSE - RUSSIAN STYLE.  In the ongoing political chess game on ballistic missile defenses, President Putin has informally proposed a plan to share the Russian S-300 defense system with European NATO members, providing a defense against attack from "rogue" states. The S-300 is reported in the media to be capable of intercepting up to six missiles or aircraft at one time. In another move, Russia has also disclosed that Iran was interested in buying the S-300 system, even though, ironically, Iran was said to have been listed in Putin's proposal to the Europeans as one of the potential "rogue" state threats (North Korea, Pakistan and Iraq were the others mentioned). The Russians are expected to unveil their plan officially at the NATO Permanent Joint Commission meeting this Spring. Move, countermove? (WPost 18Mar01, p.B7/ Hoagland) (Jonkers)


SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENT

CIA PROPAGANDA PLAN OF THE 1960s -- On the 40th anniversary of the Bay of Pigs a conference is being held in Havana. Among the attendees are veterans of the operation from all sides, including some AFIO members. One document made public on the occasion (declassified and released under FOIA) was a CIA "Propaganda Plan" issued in April 1961 just before the invasion, indicating the CIA had "the capability of placing items directly on the wire service tickers" as part of its "regular propaganda apparatus." It has been known since the 1970s (from the notoriously destructive Church committee activities) that the CIA had "assets" in place at some news organizations like the Associated Press and United Press International. The document indicates that the Agency could essentially dictate articles and have them sent around the world. Thus the Agency could "place specific messages and propaganda lines" on the wire services during and after the invasion. "This will be enormously important in influencing the actions of the Cuban government leaders and stimulating sympathetic support of the patriotic rebellion from other countries." The CIA indicated after the disclosures that it would not manipulate the American news media except in the most dire national emergency, a policy reaffirmed in the 1990s. (NYT 24Mar01, p.A7/Weiner) (See also "Psywar on Cuba: The Declassified History of U.S. Anti-Castro Propaganda, by Jon Elliston, 1999) (Jonkers)

WW II LIVES - THE ANTI-NAZI WAR CAMPAIGN ENDURES. In postwar Germany the Nazi's were held to the victor's justice at the War Crimes Trials in Nuremberg. This editor was part of this effort in Nuremberg with regard to the Waffen SS, a US Army Intelligence priority in the post-WWII "war of retribution." But then relations with Stalin soured and Czechoslovakia fell to the Soviets, and Communism crept closer. As of January 1948 the US Army in Europe closed the books on WWII and re-oriented itself towards the new threat. I became part of HUMINT operations against the Soviets in East Germany. On the ground the Soviet Army seemed poised to blow us away. The US Army had been demobilized and was in a state of disrepair. Large communist parties, sharpened in resistance struggles against the Nazis, were ready to rise in Western Europe. As it developed, the Soviets did not march - instead we got the Berlin blockade and airlift, and over time, recovery, rearmament and the Cold War. But none of this was fore-ordained.
        Today the Cold War is over too -- and we are back to the war against the Nazis, now as part of an almost religious campaign to reinterpret history against a single criterion, reflected in reputable publications such as the NY Review of Books as holocaust exploitation. The U.S. Congress passed the Nazi War Crimes Disclosure Act in 1998. Now CIA has stated it will declassify its dealings with former German Reich intelligence officers (now all dubbed Nazi spies in the media) useful to U.S. intelligence in the early days of the Cold War when disaster threatened. Some 250,000 pages are being declassified, with an expected completion date in 2002.
        One of those said to be of interest is German Army General Reinhard Gehlen, formerly chief of intelligence of the eastern front. After the war when the Soviets threatened Western Europe, U.S. forces set up the "Gehlen organization," a network that supplied the Pentagon and the early CIA with intelligence on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The Gehlen organization was formally recognized in 1956 and became the West German Intelligence Service, the BND. Gehlen headed it until he retired in 1968. Now intrepid researchers are focusing on Gehlen and American Intelligence urgent needs for information on the Soviets as having compromised the hunt for former Nazis.
        To informed observers, the suspicions have been exaggerated into conspiratorial nonsense. Gehlen and his top aides came out of the German general staff that tried, several times, to overthrow and assassinate Hitler. Gehlen's top command consisted of 30 to 40 young staff officers trained under General Beck, executed in 1944 for conspiring to assassinate Hitler, and General Halder, imprisoned until the end of the war. Nevertheless, James Critchfield, a CIA officer assigned to the Gehlen organization from 1949 - 1956, said that the records may reveal the names of 5 to 10 veterans of Gestapo Chief Heinrich Himmler's despicable Nazi secret police as part of Gehlen's organization. Gehlen reportedly took them on reluctantly under pressure from Chancellor Konrad Adenauer to deal with the "avalanche of subversion hitting them from East Germany." But we can expect that the media, separated from real events by some sixty years, and the Soviet threat of 1948 at the beginning of the Cold War forgotten, will probably have another field day at the expense of US intelligence, with another single-perspective re-interpretation of events. (WashPost 18Mar2001, p. A4/Lardner) (Jonkers)


SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

U.S. CYBER TERRORISM -- The government must work more closely with private companies to prevent cyber-terrorist attacks that threaten to disrupt the nation's economy, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said. "Today, the cyber-economy is the economy," she said Thursday, referring to the nation's dependence on computers for virtually every vital service, including electricity, transportation, banking and communications." Corrupt those networks, and you disrupt this nation," she said during a forum on Internet security. "It is a paradox of our times that the very technology that makes our economy so dynamic and our military forces so dominating also makes us more vulnerable." (http://www.cnn.com/2001/TECH/internet/03/23/internet.terrorism.ap/index.html Levine's Newsbits)


SECTION IV - SOURCES

AFIO SYMPOSIUM - Protecting America's Business Secrets - at the Ronald Reagan Center, Washington DC, 4 May 2001. Outstanding speakers including CIA Legal Counsel and other notables. Worth your time! Go to www.afio.com for full details and application forms. HELP AFIO --- SPREAD THE WORD!


SECTION V - OTHER

IN MEMORIAM - MARJORIE WILSON CLINE passed away on Tuesday March 20, 2001 in Arlington, VA., at age 87 years. During World War II she worked in cryptology helping to break the Japanese code. She was married to Ray Cline for 54 years until his death 5 years ago, and lived overseas in England, Taiwan and Germany, traveling extensively. On return to the U.S. she was an editor for the National Geographic Book Division. She maintained a small publishing office until her death. She will be sorely missed. Graveside services at Columbia Gardens in Arlington, Wednesday, March 28 at 3 P.M. (Arlington Funeral Home).

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Associate editors Don Harvey and John Macartney contribute articles to the WINs.

WINs are covered by copyright laws and may not be disseminated except with the approval of the Producer/Editor.

MEMBERS - SPONSOR A NEW MEMBER!

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++end+++++++++++++++++++++++++

For comments, contact the editor Roy Jonkers at  afio@afio.com 
For back issues of the WIN, check the AFIO Website  www.afio.com 
For AFIO Website requests/comments, contact   afio@afio.com   

Back to Top

About AFIO | Chapters & Chapter Activities | Membership | Corporate | Weekly Intelligence Notes | Event Schedule | Bulletin Board | Legislative | Careers | Donations | Book Reviews | Search | AFIO Store | Academic Exchange | Other Intel Sites | Home Page

AFIO Central Office
6723 Whittier Avenue, Suite 303A
McLean, Virginia 22101-4533
Telephone: 703 790 0320 | Facsimile: 703 790 0264
Email: afio@afio.com