Weekly Intelligence Notes #21-01
28 May 2001

WIN #21 dated 28 May 2001

WINs are commentaries on intelligence-related events based on open sources, produced and edited by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers. Associate editors Don Harvey and John Macartney contribute articles. WINs are protected by copyright laws.

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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

NEW CIA EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR BUZZY KRONGARD -- The appointment by Director George Tenet of A.B. "Buzzy" Krongard as Executive Director has set off the expected journalistic commentaries incorporating judgments about CIA in general.
            Krongard is type-cast by Newsweek writers as a macho "James-Bond-Wanna-Be" with a "vice-like grip" etc. A wealthy and successful investment banker, Krongard (who reportedly says that spying has much in common with investment banking) did not join the CIA (at least publicly) until 1998, when, at 61, he came aboard as a kind of free-floating counselor to the director, George Tenet. The former Princeton All-America lacrosse player is said to be blunt and contemptuous of bureaucratic evasion and jargon.
            Last March Director Tenet gave Krongard the job of CIA Executive Director, officially No. 3 position at the agency. More importantly, Tenet allowed him to reorganize the agency's "independent" fiefdoms so that they all now report to Krongard. The article then runs to speculation of Krongard's role in CIA reorientation or reform. The CIA, some believe, needs more and better spies who can penetrate terrorist cells and the secretive regimes of US-designated "rogue states" like Iraq and Libya. Rep. Porter Goss is quoted as saying that "risk aversion has taken hold." Though the Soviet Union is no longer the CIA's "hard target," terrorism is in some ways even harder to crack. With at least the tacit approval of the Bush administration, Krongard is said to be planning to shake up the bureaucracy, and reportedly focus manpower on the mission of "smart spying" and covert action, and not on paper shuffling.
            The CIA sometimes got into trouble in the past when presidents, frustrated by diplomats or the military, turned to clandestine operations to do the impossible. President Bill Clinton was wary of the agency. He declined to be regularly briefed by his first director, James Woolsey, and instructed Woolsey to keep the CIA out of the headlines. But President George W. Bush has restored the CIA's daily intelligence briefing. Krongard enthuses about Bush: the President, he says, "is an 11 on a scale of zero to 10."  Nevertheless, some White House officials are said to be reserving judgment on Krongard. There is also some concern on Capitol Hill that Krongard will push for operations that could backfire. But, states the article, other agency watchers are said to be counting on Tenet, who once worked on the Senate Intelligence Committee, to be careful. "George knows you can get in trouble if you move too fast." Among all this hypothetical handwringing, Director Tenet cut quickly to the core, saying -- "he's my right hand."
             Regardless of personal strengths or qualifications, whether any individual can make lasting changes in the agency in the face of the often juvenile public political postures emanating from Congress (or the Administration) in knee-jerk responses to spasms of trendy media accusations or criticisms, news of sudden casualties, or leaked connections to persons or groups judged politically incorrect or impure etc. is a good question. The answer is: not likely. (Jonkers) (Newsweek International 28 May 2001 // E.Thomas) (http://www.msnbc.com/news/575925.asp?cp1=1#TOP)

EU ECHELON STUDY PUSHING EUROPEAN SIGINT PLAN??? -- A temporary investigative committee of the European Parliament has concluded in a draft report that the National Security Agency's global eavesdropping operations are not adequately monitored by member nations of the European Union and could be violating the privacy rights of Europeans.
            The European Parliament first became concerned about an alleged worldwide surveillance network code-named Echelon, said to be run by the NSA and its partners in Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, after a 1997 staff report concluded that "within Europe, all e-mail, telephone and fax communications are routinely intercepted" by the NSA. In its May 18th draft report, however, the Temporary Committee on the Echelon Interception System says the network involves the interception of "only a very small portion" of global telephone, e-mail and fax communications emanating from communications satellites. "This means that the majority of communications cannot be intercepted by earth stations, but only by tapping cables and intercepting radio signals," the draft report states. "However, inquiries have shown that the Echelon states have access to only a very limited proportion of cable and radio communications, and, owing to the large numbers of personnel required, can analyse only a limited proportion of those communications." This statement should go some way towards reducing the hyperbole and exaggerations in Europe about this alleged NSA system.
    The report contains numerous recommendations. Among them a request that the United States be asked to sign an international protocol on civil and political rights. It also calls for a broader use of encryption software by European nations.
            An earlier (May 4th) draft of the report goes further - it places Echelon in the context of the need for separate joint intelligence planning for members of the European Union. "Further cooperation between the intelligence agencies of the (EU) Member States, well beyond the existing forms of cooperation, cannot be avoided," the report concludes. "It is inconceivable that the intelligence services will be the last and only area not affected by the process of European integration.... Strong European industries need joint protection against economic espionage from outside the European Union." Needless to say, this latter development, in the event that it is acted upon, will generate high interest. (Jonkers) (WashPost 29May p.13 //V Loeb) (Secrecy News 22 May 01) http://fas.org/irp/program/process/europarl_draft.pdf  

NATIONAL DEFENSE POSTURE AND WARNING - Secretary Rumsfeld, in a press conference in which reporters pressed him for changes planned for the Defense Department (and impacting on Intelligence) had this to say about surprise, readiness and warning:

"It is a humbling thing to go back and review history since 1900 and indeed, just in the last 50 years. The number of things that were not anticipated, that were not expected, that were not projected by defense planners or public policy planners. The fact that Vice President Cheney's Secretary of Defense hearing could have occurred less than a year or a year before the Gulf War, and not one senator or the secretary uttered the word Iraq. It tells you that we need, we're living in a world where there are uncertainties and we need to think about that and we need to arrange our forces and develop those capabilities in a way that will give us the maximum flexibility, given the reality that it is very difficult to with certainly knowledge know what's going to happen next.
I passed out the foreword to the Pearl Harbor book by Thomas Schelling. Anyone who reads that has to come away with an understanding of what warning is and what surprise means. And therefore, the important subject of deterrence. And these are the kinds of things that the chairman and the members of his committee are interested in, the kinds of things we discussed. They are not the kinds of things that come out in a cellophane package out of one person's head. You don't change anything lightly in these important areas, and we're in what's going to be a fairly extended process of discussion with the members of the House, the members of the Senate, the National Security Council process, the members of the Department of Defense on the uniformed and civilian side..."

The SecDef will challenge conventional thinking, but the process of change he sketched will be very deliberate and consensual, looking to the Fiscal Year 2003 for implementation. (Jonkers) (DoD Press Release, Wed. 23 May 2001, courtesy C. Griffith)

DOE RECALL OF PREVIOUSLY DECLASSIFIED FILES -- Public access to certain historical records at the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) is being curtailed as Department of Energy classification officials implement a 1998 law that requires review of previously declassified records. The purpose is to search for inadvertent releases of information about nuclear weapons. As a result, records that had been on the shelves for years are suddenly unavailable.
    Congress mandated the re-review of documents that were declassified under the 1995 executive order 12958 after it was learned that some information on nuclear weapons that was exempt from declassification had been inadvertently released in the declassification process because it was unmarked or misfiled. Now that the horse has been out of the barn (for decades), the DOE bureaucracy is getting open-source information back in the security system - as directed by Congress. The Washington carousel goes round and round . . . . (Jonkers) (WashPost 19 May 2001 // G. Lardner)
(http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-dyn/articles/A46729-2001May18.html)


SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

CHINA INTELLIGENCE -- The sharp downturn in Sino-American relations has triggered a major policy debate in China on how it should respond to the new political and strategic realities. Most agreed that from now on, China faces a much more hostile international environment that could hamper its unification dream (with Taiwan), slow down its modernization process, and lead to greater tension with its neighbors, particularly Japan and India. It has also led some Chinese to refocus their attention on US policies that led to the downfall of the former Soviet Union. This is because they find stark similarities in the policies of US President George W. Bush towards China and former President Ronald Reagan towards Russia.
            Last month's spy-plane incident between the United States and China also highlighted South China Sea territorial disputes as a focal point of possible international confrontation. Although the incident is viewed primarily through the lens of U.S.-China relations, it demonstrates the international stake that non-claimants have in upholding the principles of freedom of navigation in international air space and waters of this vital waterway -- over half of all the world's oil now passes through the South China Sea from the Middle East to Asia.
            China's power is growing, but its Pacific regional power projection capacity is still less than 15 percent that of the former Soviet Union. By comparison, America's military presence in Asia is virtually unchanged since the Cold War. The growth in Chinese power is even less impressive when placed in regional perspective: throughout the 1990s it actually lost ground to its neighbors in terms of relative levels of defense spending. (Jonkers) (Straits Times, 22 & 24 May //Ching Cheong) (Japan Times 21 May 01// Cossa & Snider) (Nat'l Taiwan JU, Taiwan Security Research Project on Defense Alternatives, Briefing Memo#20//Prof. P. Yang) (courtesy Tom Hart)

JAPAN INTELLIGENCE - A RISING POWER -- Newly installed Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has restarted debate over altering Japan's constitution. For years, Japanese conservatives have claimed that the "MacArthur" constitution of 1946 not only demeans Japan's armed forces, but also hampers the nation's ability to fulfill its United Nations obligations. Article 9 of the constitution forever renounces war as a right of the state "and the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes." Because of its constitution, Japan (they say) is out of step internationally and hopelessly out of being a "real" power.
            Mr. Koizumi is unambiguous in his passion for revision of the constitution and wants to abolish the war- renouncing Article 9 even though its pacifist ideals are now broadly rooted in Japanese society. Like other nationalists, he would have Japan assume military responsibility in world affairs proportional to its economic strength. And, by making the emperor the head of state (genshu) rather than, as in the 1946 Constitution, a "symbol" (shocho), he would enhance the throne as an integrating force in Japanese life. Koizumi is calling for strengthening Japan's Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) and expanding their reach.
            Japanese military officers are increasingly turning to the details of fighting far from the home islands. The rise of China, and the North Korean "rogue" missile threat is spurring a renewed interest in military power and the trend is supported by the US and other states.
            Japan already has, in fact, one of the world's biggest and most modern armed forces, backed by one of the largest military-industrial complexes. During the past four years, Japan's military has begun to bridge the gap between being a self-defense force and a regional military. In 1999, while taking part in U.S. exercises in Guam, Japan deployed fighter aircraft outside its territory for the first time since World War II. That same year, the JSDF took delivery of four Boeing 767 Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft. These improve the expeditionary capabilities of air forces. Last year, the JSDF exercised with other regional forces, and for the first time without the United States, in Operation Pacific Reach. And the Japanese government concluded an agreement that will allow its forces to use bases in Singapore in case of a crisis. Japanese naval forces - the largest in the Pacific after the US, are engaging in exercises simulating fighting simulated battles in the "far-abroad." A U.S. military report found that the Japanese are becoming technologically capable of operating alongside U.S. forces -- something that can't be said of many European forces. And military journals reflect that Japanese officers are trying to understand the challenges of conflict far from home.
            The US apparently is encouraging a larger military role for Japan in Asia. A steady military buildup over the past year or so -- with a current budget of about $50 Billion a year -- has been sold to the Japanese public as a concession to the United States. Washington is playing an important role in pushing Japan toward its new military posture. As part of the wholesale review of U.S. military strategy, the Bush administration increasingly views Japan as the linchpin to the security of Asia.
            Intelligence describes the players and the setting. National strategy and policy determine our course. Is our support for Japan's military revival and expansion a short-term tactical fix -- based on our current obsession with the so-called "threat" from China, or a true long-term strategic vision for the Pacific region? Are we fostering stability or increasing the potential for additional regional rivalries and conflict? Are we letting the genie out of the bottle or is the process inevitable? (Jonkers) (NYTimes 29May 2001 //Prof. H. Bix) (STRATFOR report 28 May 2001 // courtesy Tom Hart)
( http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/0105282155 )


SECTION III CYBER INTELLIGENCE

DOD INFORMATION SECURITY SCHOLARSHIPS -- The Defense Department is close to announcing details on its Information Security Scholarship Program, which is designed to recruit and retain computer and network security professionals. DOD is expected to release a solicitation Friday for its scholarship program, which was mandated in the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal 2001. The program is similar to the civilian Scholarship for Service program managed by the National Science Foundation but is specific to DOD. (Levine Newsbits 24 May 01)  
http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2001/0521/web-dod-05-24-01.asp

CISCO ROUTERS VULNERABLE TO CYBER ATTACK -- Cisco Systems has warned that its operating system used by its 600 series routers leave it vulnerable to a barrage of attacks. Late on May 23rd, Cisco issued an alert which stated that 600 series routers were subject to not one, not two, not three but four potentially serious flaws. It advised users to upgrade the software. One flaw with Cisco CBOS Software, which runs on 600 series routers, means that passwords are stored in clear text in the memory of a router. (Levine's Newsbits 24 May 01)


SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES

SEEKING TRUTH FROM FACTS: A Retrospective on Chinese Military Studies in the Post-Mao Era (online book), by Eds. James C. Mulvenon and Andrew N.D. Yang, (Rand, 2001) (PDF File) ( http://www.rand.org/publications/CF/CF160/) Since the beginning of Deng Xiaoping's reforms in the late-1970s, the Chinese military has undergone profound changes in nearly all areas of activity. In a parallel and perhaps related development, the field of China military studies in the United States has also witnessed dramatic growth over the last 20 years. This review of the PLA is one example of this trend. (Jonkers)

FROM REVOLUTIONARY INTERNATIONALISM TO CONSERVATIVE NATIONALISM: The Chinese Military's Discourse on National Security and Identity in the Post-Mao Era, By Nan Li (United States Institute of Peace, May, 2001) (PDF file) (http://63.104.169.22/pubs/Peaceworks/pwks39.pdf) While still ruled by a communist party, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has emerged as a major economic power by unshackling its command economy and privatizing many of its state-owned enterprises. Yet Maoist revolutionary doctrine that distinguished the PRC as a leader of world revolution and national liberation movements in the 1950s and '60s is only now beginning to be reassessed. (Jonkers)


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