WIN #21 dated 28 May
2001
WINs are commentaries on intelligence-related events
based on open sources, produced and edited by Roy Jonkers
for AFIO members and subscribers. Associate editors Don
Harvey and John Macartney contribute articles. WINs are
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SECTION
I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
NEW CIA EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR BUZZY KRONGARD
-- The appointment by Director George Tenet of A.B. "Buzzy"
Krongard as Executive Director has set off the expected
journalistic commentaries incorporating judgments about CIA
in general.
Krongard is type-cast by Newsweek
writers as a macho "James-Bond-Wanna-Be" with a
"vice-like grip" etc. A wealthy and successful
investment banker, Krongard (who reportedly says that spying
has much in common with investment banking) did not join the
CIA (at least publicly) until 1998, when, at 61, he came
aboard as a kind of free-floating counselor to the director,
George Tenet. The former Princeton All-America lacrosse
player is said to be blunt and contemptuous of bureaucratic
evasion and jargon.
Last March Director Tenet gave Krongard the job of CIA
Executive Director, officially No. 3 position at the agency.
More importantly, Tenet allowed him to reorganize the
agency's "independent"
fiefdoms so that they all now report to Krongard. The
article then runs to speculation of Krongard's role in CIA
reorientation or reform. The CIA, some believe, needs more
and better spies who can penetrate terrorist cells and the
secretive regimes of US-designated "rogue states"
like Iraq and Libya. Rep. Porter Goss is quoted as saying
that "risk aversion has taken hold." Though the
Soviet Union is no longer the CIA's "hard target,"
terrorism is in some ways even harder to crack. With at
least the tacit approval of the Bush administration,
Krongard is said to be planning to shake up the
bureaucracy, and reportedly focus manpower on the
mission of "smart spying" and covert action, and
not on paper shuffling.
The CIA sometimes got into trouble in the past when
presidents, frustrated by diplomats or the military, turned
to clandestine operations to do the impossible. President
Bill Clinton was wary of the agency. He declined to be
regularly briefed by his first director, James Woolsey, and
instructed Woolsey to keep the CIA out of the headlines. But
President George W. Bush has restored the CIA's daily
intelligence briefing. Krongard enthuses about Bush: the
President, he says, "is an 11 on a scale of zero to
10." Nevertheless,
some White House officials are said to be reserving judgment
on Krongard. There is also some concern on Capitol Hill that
Krongard will push for operations that could backfire. But,
states the article, other agency watchers are said to be
counting on Tenet, who once worked on the Senate
Intelligence Committee, to be careful. "George knows
you can get in trouble if you move too fast." Among all
this hypothetical handwringing, Director Tenet cut quickly
to the core, saying -- "he's my right hand."
Regardless of personal strengths or qualifications, whether
any individual can make lasting changes in the agency in the
face of the often juvenile public political postures
emanating from Congress (or the Administration) in knee-jerk
responses to spasms of trendy media accusations or
criticisms, news of sudden casualties, or leaked connections
to persons or groups judged politically incorrect or impure
etc. is a good question. The answer is: not likely.
(Jonkers) (Newsweek International 28 May 2001 // E.Thomas) (http://www.msnbc.com/news/575925.asp?cp1=1#TOP)
EU ECHELON STUDY PUSHING EUROPEAN SIGINT PLAN??? --
A temporary investigative committee of the European
Parliament has concluded in a draft report that the National
Security Agency's global eavesdropping operations are not
adequately monitored by member nations of the European Union
and could be violating the privacy rights of Europeans.
The European Parliament first became concerned about an
alleged worldwide surveillance network code-named Echelon,
said to be run by the NSA and its partners in Britain,
Australia, Canada and New Zealand, after a 1997 staff report
concluded that "within Europe, all e-mail, telephone
and fax communications are routinely intercepted" by
the NSA. In its May 18th draft report, however, the
Temporary Committee on the Echelon Interception System says
the network involves the interception of "only a very
small portion" of global telephone, e-mail and fax
communications emanating from communications satellites.
"This means that the majority of communications cannot
be intercepted by earth stations, but only by tapping cables
and intercepting radio signals," the draft report
states. "However, inquiries have shown that the Echelon
states have access to only a very limited proportion of
cable and radio communications, and, owing to the large
numbers of personnel required, can analyse
only a limited proportion of those communications."
This statement should go some way towards reducing the
hyperbole and exaggerations in Europe about this alleged NSA
system.
The report contains numerous
recommendations. Among them a request that the United
States be asked to sign an international protocol on
civil and political rights. It also calls for a broader use
of encryption software by European nations.
An earlier (May 4th) draft of the report goes further - it
places Echelon in the context of the need
for separate joint intelligence planning for members of the
European Union. "Further cooperation between the
intelligence agencies of the (EU) Member States, well beyond
the existing forms of cooperation, cannot be avoided,"
the report concludes. "It is inconceivable that the
intelligence services will be the last and only area not
affected by the process of European integration.... Strong
European industries need joint protection against economic
espionage from outside the European Union." Needless to
say, this latter development, in the event that it is acted
upon, will generate high interest. (Jonkers) (WashPost 29May
p.13 //V Loeb) (Secrecy News 22 May 01)
http://fas.org/irp/program/process/europarl_draft.pdf
NATIONAL DEFENSE POSTURE AND WARNING -
Secretary Rumsfeld, in a press conference in which reporters
pressed him for changes planned for the Defense Department
(and impacting on Intelligence) had this to say about
surprise, readiness and warning:
"It is a humbling thing to go back
and review history since 1900 and indeed, just in the last
50 years. The number of things that were not anticipated,
that were not expected, that were not projected by defense
planners or public policy planners. The fact that Vice
President Cheney's Secretary of Defense hearing could have
occurred less than a year or a year before the Gulf War,
and not one senator or the secretary uttered the word
Iraq. It tells you that we need, we're living in a world
where there are uncertainties and we need to think about
that and we need to arrange our forces and develop those
capabilities in a way that will give us the maximum
flexibility, given the reality that it is very difficult
to with certainly knowledge know what's going to happen
next.
I passed out the foreword to the Pearl Harbor book by
Thomas Schelling. Anyone who reads that has to come away
with an understanding of what warning is and what surprise
means. And therefore, the important subject of deterrence.
And these are the kinds of things that the chairman and
the members of his committee are interested in, the kinds
of things we discussed. They are not the kinds of things
that come out in a cellophane package out of one person's
head. You don't change anything lightly in these important
areas, and we're in what's going to be a fairly extended
process of discussion with the members of the House, the
members of the Senate, the National Security Council
process, the members of the Department of Defense on the
uniformed and civilian side..."
The SecDef will challenge conventional
thinking, but the process of change he sketched will be very
deliberate and consensual, looking to the Fiscal Year 2003
for implementation. (Jonkers) (DoD Press Release, Wed. 23
May 2001, courtesy C. Griffith)
DOE RECALL OF PREVIOUSLY
DECLASSIFIED FILES -- Public access to certain
historical records at the National Archives and Records
Administration (NARA) is being curtailed as Department of
Energy classification officials implement a 1998 law that
requires review of previously declassified records. The
purpose is to search for inadvertent releases of information
about nuclear weapons. As a result, records that had been on
the shelves for years are suddenly unavailable.
Congress mandated the re-review of
documents that were declassified under the 1995 executive
order 12958 after it was learned that some information on
nuclear weapons that was exempt from declassification had
been inadvertently released in the declassification process
because it was unmarked
or misfiled. Now that the horse has been out of the barn
(for decades), the DOE bureaucracy is getting open-source
information back in the security system - as directed by
Congress. The Washington carousel goes round and round . . .
. (Jonkers) (WashPost 19 May 2001 // G. Lardner)
(http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-dyn/articles/A46729-2001May18.html)
SECTION
II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE
CHINA INTELLIGENCE -- The
sharp downturn in Sino-American relations has triggered a
major policy debate in China on how it should respond to the
new political and strategic realities. Most agreed that from
now on, China faces a much more hostile international
environment that could hamper its unification dream (with
Taiwan), slow down its modernization process, and lead to
greater tension with its neighbors, particularly Japan and
India. It has also led some Chinese to refocus their
attention on US policies that led to the downfall of the
former Soviet Union. This is because they find stark
similarities in the policies of US President George W. Bush
towards China and former President Ronald Reagan towards
Russia.
Last month's spy-plane incident between the United States
and China also highlighted South China Sea territorial
disputes as a focal point of possible international
confrontation. Although the incident is viewed primarily
through the lens of U.S.-China relations, it demonstrates
the international stake that non-claimants have in upholding
the principles of freedom of navigation in international air
space and waters of this vital waterway -- over half of all
the world's oil now passes through the South China Sea from
the Middle East to Asia.
China's power is growing, but its Pacific regional power
projection capacity is still less than 15 percent that of
the former Soviet Union. By comparison, America's military
presence in Asia is virtually unchanged since the Cold War.
The growth in Chinese power is even less impressive when
placed in regional perspective: throughout the 1990s it
actually lost ground to its neighbors in terms of relative
levels of defense spending. (Jonkers) (Straits Times, 22
& 24 May //Ching Cheong) (Japan Times 21 May 01// Cossa
& Snider) (Nat'l Taiwan JU, Taiwan Security Research
Project on Defense Alternatives, Briefing Memo#20//Prof. P.
Yang) (courtesy Tom Hart)
JAPAN INTELLIGENCE - A RISING POWER --
Newly installed Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has
restarted debate over altering Japan's constitution. For
years, Japanese conservatives have claimed that the "MacArthur"
constitution of 1946 not only demeans Japan's armed forces,
but also hampers the nation's ability to fulfill its United
Nations obligations. Article 9 of the constitution forever
renounces war as a right of the state "and the threat
or use of force as a means of settling international
disputes." Because of its constitution, Japan (they
say) is out of step internationally and hopelessly out of
being a "real" power.
Mr. Koizumi is unambiguous in his passion for revision of
the constitution and wants to abolish the war- renouncing
Article 9 even though its pacifist ideals are now broadly
rooted in Japanese society. Like other nationalists, he
would have Japan assume military responsibility in world
affairs proportional to its economic strength. And, by
making the emperor the head of state (genshu) rather than,
as in the 1946 Constitution, a "symbol" (shocho),
he would enhance the throne as an integrating force in
Japanese life. Koizumi is calling for strengthening Japan's
Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) and expanding their reach.
Japanese military officers are increasingly turning to the
details of fighting far from the home islands. The rise of
China, and the North Korean "rogue" missile threat
is spurring a renewed interest in military power and the
trend is supported by the US and other states.
Japan already has, in fact, one of the world's biggest and
most modern armed forces, backed by one of the largest
military-industrial complexes. During the past four years,
Japan's military has begun to bridge the gap between being a
self-defense force and a regional military. In 1999, while
taking part in U.S. exercises in Guam, Japan deployed
fighter aircraft outside its territory for the first time
since World War II. That same year, the JSDF took delivery
of four Boeing 767 Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS)
aircraft. These improve the expeditionary capabilities of
air forces. Last year, the JSDF exercised with other
regional forces, and for the first time without the United
States, in Operation Pacific Reach. And the Japanese
government concluded an agreement that will allow its forces
to use bases in Singapore in case of a crisis. Japanese
naval forces - the largest in the Pacific after the US, are
engaging in exercises simulating fighting simulated battles
in the "far-abroad." A U.S. military report found
that the Japanese are becoming technologically capable of
operating alongside U.S. forces -- something that can't be
said of many European forces. And military journals reflect
that Japanese officers are trying to understand the
challenges of conflict far from home.
The US apparently is encouraging a larger military role for
Japan in Asia. A steady military buildup over the past year
or so -- with a current budget of about $50 Billion a year
-- has been sold to the Japanese public as a concession to
the United States. Washington is playing an important role
in pushing Japan toward its new military posture. As part of
the wholesale review of U.S. military strategy, the Bush
administration increasingly views Japan as the linchpin to
the security of Asia.
Intelligence describes the players and the setting. National
strategy and policy determine our course. Is our support for
Japan's military revival and expansion a short-term tactical
fix -- based on our current obsession with the so-called
"threat" from China, or a true long-term strategic
vision for the Pacific region? Are we fostering stability or
increasing the potential for additional regional rivalries
and conflict? Are we letting the genie out of the bottle or
is the process inevitable? (Jonkers) (NYTimes 29May 2001
//Prof. H. Bix) (STRATFOR report 28 May 2001 // courtesy Tom
Hart)
( http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/0105282155
)
SECTION
III CYBER INTELLIGENCE
DOD INFORMATION SECURITY SCHOLARSHIPS --
The Defense Department is close to
announcing details on its Information Security Scholarship
Program, which is designed to recruit and retain computer
and network security professionals. DOD is expected to
release a solicitation Friday for its scholarship program,
which was mandated in the National Defense Authorization Act
for fiscal 2001. The program is similar to the civilian
Scholarship for Service program managed by the National
Science Foundation but is specific to DOD. (Levine Newsbits
24 May 01)
http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2001/0521/web-dod-05-24-01.asp
CISCO ROUTERS VULNERABLE TO CYBER ATTACK --
Cisco Systems has warned that its operating system used by
its 600 series routers leave it vulnerable to a barrage of
attacks. Late on May 23rd, Cisco issued an alert which
stated that 600 series routers were subject to not one, not
two, not three but four potentially serious flaws. It
advised users to upgrade the software. One flaw with Cisco
CBOS Software, which runs on 600 series routers, means that
passwords are stored in clear text in the memory of a
router. (Levine's Newsbits 24 May 01)
SECTION
IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES
SEEKING TRUTH FROM FACTS: A
Retrospective on Chinese Military Studies in the Post-Mao
Era (online book), by Eds. James C. Mulvenon and
Andrew N.D. Yang, (Rand, 2001) (PDF File) (
http://www.rand.org/publications/CF/CF160/)
Since the beginning of Deng Xiaoping's reforms in the
late-1970s, the Chinese military has undergone profound
changes in nearly all areas of activity. In a parallel and
perhaps related development, the field of China military
studies in the United States has also witnessed dramatic
growth over the last 20 years. This review of the PLA is one
example of this trend. (Jonkers)
FROM REVOLUTIONARY INTERNATIONALISM TO CONSERVATIVE
NATIONALISM: The Chinese Military's Discourse on National
Security and Identity in the Post-Mao Era, By Nan
Li (United States Institute of Peace, May, 2001) (PDF file)
(http://63.104.169.22/pubs/Peaceworks/pwks39.pdf)
While still ruled by a communist party, the People's
Republic of China (PRC) has emerged as a major economic
power by unshackling its command economy and privatizing
many of its state-owned enterprises. Yet Maoist
revolutionary doctrine that distinguished the PRC as a
leader of world revolution and national liberation movements
in the 1950s and '60s is only now beginning to be
reassessed. (Jonkers)
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