Weekly Intelligence Notes #26-01
WIN 26 dated 2 July 01
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) contain intelligence-related information and commentaries derived from open sources, selected and written and edited by the Producer/Editor, Roy Jonkers. Associate editors Don Harvey and John Macartney contribute articles to the WINs.
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2 and 3 NOVEMBER 2001
AFIO SYMPOSIUM 2001
"Intelligence, Statecraft and Hi-Tech"
in Langley, VA
SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
The Hanssen case is the most serious act of spying in the history of the FBI, and quite probably worse than the case of former CIA agent Aldrich H. Ames. The latter betrayed our agents within the Soviet intelligence structure - a true loss. But Hanssen also betrayed critical national security and intelligence systems and procedures. It is for that national security reason -- the fact we may now be relying on systems and procedures that have been compromised -- that the Intelligence Community must find out all it can about what was provided to the Soviets - and now possibly still in the files of Russian or other foreign powers. Only in that light does the plea bargain make sense. (Jonkers) (Wpost 3Jul01 //B. Masters)
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY REVIEW STARTS -- Two panels will be convened this week to begin top-to-bottom reviews of the nation's intelligence capabilities, to be completed in only three short months -- by September. Under a directive issued by President Bush to DCI George Tenet in May, the two panels are directed to conduct "independent, but parallel, reviews" of four areas: (1) twenty-first century intelligence threats and priorities; (2) current capabilities; (3) new and "highly advanced" technologies for intelligence collection and analysis; and (4) possible reorganization of the community.
The first panel is headed by retired General Brent Scowcroft, a former National Security Advisor in the Ford and (senior) Bush administrations, and also mentioned as the prospective Chairman of the President's Foreign Advisory Board (PFIAB). This panel will be composed of up to ten "outside" experts (including a former Chairman of the JCS, Admiral Jeremiah), and will particularly focus on new technologies in relation to new threats.
The second panel will be chaired by Joan Dempsey, the current Deputy Director of Central Intelligence for Intelligence Community Management. It will be composed of up to ten "internal" representatives from the Intelligence Community agencies, and will focus on assessing current capabilities in the projected environment of the new millennium. (It will be noted that the AFIO Symposium on 2 November 2001 at CIA will include eminent speakers to provide insights into both the process and substance of this important intelligence community review) (Jonkers) (WashPost 3Jul01, p17 //V. Loeb)
EGYPTIAN INVESTIGATORS CONCURRED IN PILOT'S SUICIDE
THEORY AS CAUSE OF EGYPT AIR 990 CRASH. The Egyptian
government has steadfastly refused to accept the notion that the
Egyptian co-pilot was an Islamic extremist who intentionally
dived the plane into the water off New York in Oct 1999 taking
216 people to their deaths. But apparently that's what their own
investigators reported back to Cairo. Newsweek (6/25) says that
US intelligence monitored communications between the Egyptian
investigating team and Cairo -- according to this "leak," the
Egyptian investigators concurred (privately) in the US finding of
suicide as the probable cause. (Macartney)
CRITICISM OF THE SIOP. The
Single Integrated Operations Plan for nuclear war with the Soviet
Union is apparently still in effect. (Macartney)
OSAMA BIN LADEN CIRCULATING TERROR
VIDEO. Bin Laden's network is circulating a chilling
video in which he urges Islamic militants to join in his Holy War
and calls for "blood, blood and destruction, destruction."
SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE
INTELLIGENCE CONTEXT -- NEW DEFENSE WEAPONS REQUIREMENTS -- The Defense Department is pouring research dollars into high-energy lasers, microwave systems and a host of other advanced systems designed to win 21st-century wars and to counter "asymmetric" threats to U.S. forces. "Future adversaries will increasingly rely on unconventional strategies and tactics to offset the superiority of U.S. forces," Edward Aldridge, the Pentagon's new Under Secretary of Defense Acquisition, Technology and Logistics said in testimony prepared for the House Armed Services Research and Development Subcommittee. "We must be conscious of these threats as we foster technology breakthroughs ... to cope with that environment."
Aldridge divided U.S. needs into three categories:
This list of requirements indicates the way in which both the defense re-organization and the intelligence review are being directed. (Jonkers) (courtesy W. Knowles // T. Baines) (Infosec News 26 June 2001//Reuters 26 June 2001)( http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/stories/news/0,4586,2780115,00.html)
NSA MODERNIZATION PROGRAM PROCEEDS -- The proliferation of information technology and wireless communications in the 1990s has made it more difficult for NSA to perform its mission. Because of the explosion in information technology, NSA receives more and different data than ever before, and the agency must increase its data processing capabilities significantly. As the Director NSA, Lt. Gen. Michael Hayden has articulated in many a forum, modernizing the NSA computer infrastructure is the answer.
NSA took the first step in its $10 billion modernization program on April 2, awarding three concept study contracts for Project Trailblazer, a five-year, $57 million contract for systems engineering and technical assistance to NSA. Trailblazer is intended to provide a blueprint for modernizing the agency's signals intelligence capabilities, NSA's primary mission.
In late July NSA will complete the first part of its modernization program when it also awards a contract for Project Groundbreaker. This project will create a computer infrastructure to enhance the processing of intelligence information. Project Groundbreaker was delayed three months by acquisition reforms and a sometimes reluctant work force, as reportedly, middle management at NSA does not always agree with the course taken by the leadership, particularly in respect to the commercial out-sourcing of much that was done in-house before. (Jonkers) (DefNews Jul2-8, 2001, p.10 // F. Tiboni)
ECHELON PUBLICITY IN JAPAN -- A Japanese newspaper featured an article on a "U.S.-led spy network" intercepting Japanese diplomatic communications for 20 years to keep track of Tokyo's economic activities. The information was attributed to a New Zealand researcher named Nicky Hagger. The network, reported as "Echelon," was said to have focused on communications pertaining to trade and fishing as well as on ships transporting plutonium in the South Pacific. The article did not elaborate on the plutonium shipments, but Japan, which depends on nuclear power for about 30 percent of its electricity needs, periodically imports shipments of a uranium oxide and plutonium mixture (MOX) from Europe.
New Zealand's Government Communications Security Bureau was said to use its Waihopai signals base to intercept communications sent via satellite from the Japanese Embassy back to Toyo and vice versa. The information then was supposedly sent to NSA.
Media reports have alleged that the Echelon network (said to include the US, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand), was set up at the beginning of the Cold War for intelligence-gathering and has grown into a current network of intercept stations across the globe. European media reports have suggested that Echelon has listened in to vast numbers of telephone calls, fax transmissions and e-mails, prompting concern over privacy violations and allegations of industrial espionage. U.S. officials have never publicly confirmed the network exists and deny that the United States engages in industrial espionage. New Zealand government officials said they never comment on intelligence matters.
This newspaper report, causing a public reaction in Japan, comes just before the European Union is slated to vote its recommendations on the so-called Echelon case. (Jonkers) (AP report 27 June 01, based on Tokyo newspaper Mainichi) ( http://www.wired.com/news/privacy/0,1848,44841,00.html)
TALEBAN OPIUM CONTROL SUCCESS - A POTENTIAL BOOM FOR BURMA -- The Taleban's success in eradicating three-quarters of the world's crop of opium in one season by religious law edict in Afghanistan, has international buyers turning to Burma to fill the shortfall in opium and heroin destined for Europe. International law enforcement officers expect Burmese production of heroin and opium to increase to meet the demand from Europe and traditional markets such as China, Southeast Asia, Australia and North America.
Burma's annual opium production more than tripled in the late 1980s, from 700-800 tons to 2,500 tons. Following bad weather in the late 1990s, production fell to 1,000-1,500 tons a year, but given the new demand and favorable weather conditions, more can be expected from Burma this year. Over the past three years, a major drug-producing group, the Burmese military-backed United Wa State Army, has reportedly moved tens of thousands of opium-growing hill tribes people from the rugged mountains on Burma's border with China to areas close to Thailand, where the soil and climate are more suitable for poppy cultivation. We may expect that Burma may rise in "prominence" if it becomes a greater intelligence target in the drug wars. One might also note the power of religion to control production. (Jonkers) (courtesy P. Kessler)
SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE
CRYPTOGRAPHIC MODULE SECURITY STANDARDS
APPROVED -- The Commerce Department on 27 June formally
approved the new standard for the minimum level of cryptographic
security for SENSITIVE UNCLASSIFIED federal products and
information. These must be certified under the National Institute
of Standards and Technology's (NIST) Federal Information
Processing Standard (FIPS) 140-2, Security Requirements for
Cryptographic Modules. The new FIPS 140-2 standard, which
replaces the 140-1 standard from 1994, goes into effect Nov.
CYBER NETWORK INTRUDER DETECTION
SYSTEM -- Network administrators now have a new first
line of defense in the protection of information assets.
Motorola, Inc. announced a visualization and analysis software
tool that helps the user visually interpret network attacks at a
glance and respond quickly. Because the data is displayed in
near-real time, the user can react quickly based on responses
defined by the operation's security policy. Rapid response can
serve to eliminate or mitigate potential damage to the network.
(Levine's Newsbits 27 June01)
TRACING STOLEN LAPTOPS --
Software which pinpoints the exact location of laptop thieves via
the Net was developed by US company zTrace. The software package
activates a tracing technology when stolen laptops are connected
to the Internet. Computer owners sign up to zTrace, then notify
the company if their machine is stolen (a police report must also
be submitted). The tracing technology inside the laptop, which
zTrace says cannot be detected or uninstalled, is then activated
the next time anyone tries to get the notebook online.
SECTION IV - BOOKS & OTHER SOURCES
DOUGLAS MacEACHIN, US INTELLIGENCE AND
THE POLISH CRISIS, 1980-1981, CIA/CSI, June 2001.
SECDEF's ANNUAL REPORT TO
CONGRESS. Chapter 8, "Information Superiority and Space"
includes intelligence [need more collaboration with industry,
academia; need more, better people; need to incorporate
multispectral imaging; need to make TPED improvements (Tasking,
Processing Exploitation and Dissemination of imagery) especially
of MASINT products; RC-135 Rivet Joint fleet expanded to 16 from
14 and a 3rd RC-135 Cobra Ball aircraft was delivered last year;]
and counterintelligence [need to implement "CI21; need to guard
against trusted insiders]. (Macartney)
RICHARDS J. HEUER, JR, "PSYCHOLOGY OF
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS," RECEIVES AWARD. This recent
book, which is available on the CIA / CSI website, has been
chosen by the International Association of Law Enforcement
Intelligence Analysts (IALEIA) as the winner of its award for
"Most Significant Contribution to the Literature of Law
Enforcement Intelligence Analysis." [Jeremy Compton]
LARRY TART & ROBERT KEEFE, "THE PRICE OF VIGILANCE: Attacks on American Surveillance Flights," Ballantine Books, NY, June 2001.
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Information on AFIO Symposium 2001 on 2/3 November will be forthcoming shortly.
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