Weekly Intelligence Notes #26-01
2 July 2001

WIN 26 dated 2 July 01
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) contain intelligence-related information and commentaries derived from open sources, selected and written and edited by the Producer/Editor, Roy Jonkers. Associate editors Don Harvey and John Macartney contribute articles to the WINs.
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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE


HANSSEN PLEA-BARGAIN -- Robert P. Hanssen, former FBI counterintelligence agent and traitor, has reportedly struck a deal with the government in which he will plead guilty to charges of spying for Moscow and receive a life sentence. A 'change of plea' hearing has been scheduled for 9 a.m. Friday 6 July 2001 in Alexandria before U.S. District Judge Claude M. Hilton. As part of the deal, the government will drop its demand for the death penalty and Hanssen will sit for extensive debriefings with FBI, CIA and other U.S. counterintelligence agents. The government can also require Hanssen to undergo a polygraph examination. He will not be sentenced for six months to allow time for the debriefings. Hanssen's wife, Bonnie, and their six children will reportedly receive benefits under his government pension earned for his 27-year "service."

            The Hanssen case is the most serious act of spying in the history of the FBI, and quite probably worse than the case of former CIA agent Aldrich H. Ames. The latter betrayed our agents within the Soviet intelligence structure - a true loss. But Hanssen also betrayed critical national security and intelligence systems and procedures. It is for that national security reason -- the fact we may now be relying on systems and procedures that have been compromised -- that the Intelligence Community must find out all it can about what was provided to the Soviets - and now possibly still in the files of Russian or other foreign powers. Only in that light does the plea bargain make sense. (Jonkers) (Wpost 3Jul01 //B. Masters)

INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY REVIEW STARTS -- Two panels will be convened this week to begin top-to-bottom reviews of the nation's intelligence capabilities, to be completed in only three short months -- by September. Under a directive issued by President Bush to DCI George Tenet in May, the two panels are directed to conduct "independent, but parallel, reviews" of four areas: (1) twenty-first century intelligence threats and priorities; (2) current capabilities; (3) new and "highly advanced" technologies for intelligence collection and analysis; and (4) possible reorganization of the community.

            The first panel is headed by retired General Brent Scowcroft, a former National Security Advisor in the Ford and (senior) Bush administrations, and also mentioned as the prospective Chairman of the President's Foreign Advisory Board (PFIAB). This panel will be composed of up to ten "outside" experts (including a former Chairman of the JCS, Admiral Jeremiah), and will particularly focus on new technologies in relation to new threats.

            The second panel will be chaired by Joan Dempsey, the current Deputy Director of Central Intelligence for Intelligence Community Management. It will be composed of up to ten "internal" representatives from the Intelligence Community agencies, and will focus on assessing current capabilities in the projected environment of the new millennium. (It will be noted that the AFIO Symposium on 2 November 2001 at CIA will include eminent speakers to provide insights into both the process and substance of this important intelligence community review) (Jonkers) (WashPost 3Jul01, p17 //V. Loeb)

EGYPTIAN INVESTIGATORS CONCURRED IN PILOT'S SUICIDE THEORY AS CAUSE OF EGYPT AIR 990 CRASH. The Egyptian government has steadfastly refused to accept the notion that the Egyptian co-pilot was an Islamic extremist who intentionally dived the plane into the water off New York in Oct 1999 taking 216 people to their deaths. But apparently that's what their own investigators reported back to Cairo. Newsweek (6/25) says that US intelligence monitored communications between the Egyptian investigating team and Cairo -- according to this "leak," the Egyptian investigators concurred (privately) in the US finding of suicide as the probable cause. (Macartney)
http://europe.cnn.com/2001/US/06/25/egypt.air/

CRITICISM OF THE SIOP. The Single Integrated Operations Plan for nuclear war with the Soviet Union is apparently still in effect. (Macartney)
http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2001/ja01/ja01lortie.html

http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/warplan/index.asp

OSAMA BIN LADEN CIRCULATING TERROR VIDEO. Bin Laden's network is circulating a chilling video in which he urges Islamic militants to join in his Holy War and calls for "blood, blood and destruction, destruction." (Macartney)
http://www.nypost.com/news/worldnews/33016.htm

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

INTELLIGENCE CONTEXT -- NEW DEFENSE WEAPONS REQUIREMENTS -- The Defense Department is pouring research dollars into high-energy lasers, microwave systems and a host of other advanced systems designed to win 21st-century wars and to counter "asymmetric" threats to U.S. forces. "Future adversaries will increasingly rely on unconventional strategies and tactics to offset the superiority of U.S. forces," Edward Aldridge, the Pentagon's new Under Secretary of Defense Acquisition, Technology and Logistics said in testimony prepared for the House Armed Services Research and Development Subcommittee. "We must be conscious of these threats as we foster technology breakthroughs ... to cope with that environment."

Aldridge divided U.S. needs into three categories:

(1) "Hard problems" include such things as developing a remote capability to detect and identify potentially toxic chemical and biological agents and to forecast their dispersion through a battlefield. Another such challenge is coming up with munitions capable of knocking out deeply buried targets.

(2) For "revolutionary war-fighting concepts," new technologies are being worked on for "fuller dominance of space." Key areas include affordable space transportation including advanced propulsion and long-lasting power systems; sensing technologies for enhanced space surveillance, and protection of U.S. assets in space. Also needed are network systems that communicate seamlessly among themselves, operationally responsive and reliable networks and tools for boiling down vast amounts of information and helping decision makers.

(3) In militarily significant research, the third category, a priority is the "generation, storage, use and projection of electrical and other forms of power throughout the battle-space," Aldridge said. He noted that "directed-energy" weapons--lasers and high-powered microwave systems--had the potential to shoot down ballistic missiles as they were lifting off, to defeat high-speed anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles and to zero in on targets in urban centers without harming civilians. Breakthroughs were needed in "advanced power," including new battery systems and fuel cells, to enhance the U.S. capability to focus power and energy in a way that could be supported logistically.

          This list of requirements indicates the way in which both the defense re-organization and the intelligence review are being directed. (Jonkers) (courtesy W. Knowles // T. Baines) (Infosec News 26 June 2001//Reuters 26 June 2001)( http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/stories/news/0,4586,2780115,00.html)

NSA MODERNIZATION PROGRAM PROCEEDS -- The proliferation of information technology and wireless communications in the 1990s has made it more difficult for NSA to perform its mission. Because of the explosion in information technology, NSA receives more and different data than ever before, and the agency must increase its data processing capabilities significantly. As the Director NSA, Lt. Gen. Michael Hayden has articulated in many a forum, modernizing the NSA computer infrastructure is the answer.

            NSA took the first step in its $10 billion modernization program on April 2, awarding three concept study contracts for Project Trailblazer, a five-year, $57 million contract for systems engineering and technical assistance to NSA. Trailblazer is intended to provide a blueprint for modernizing the agency's signals intelligence capabilities, NSA's primary mission.

            In late July NSA will complete the first part of its modernization program when it also awards a contract for Project Groundbreaker. This project will create a computer infrastructure to enhance the processing of intelligence information. Project Groundbreaker was delayed three months by acquisition reforms and a sometimes reluctant work force, as reportedly, middle management at NSA does not always agree with the course taken by the leadership, particularly in respect to the commercial out-sourcing of much that was done in-house before. (Jonkers) (DefNews Jul2-8, 2001, p.10 // F. Tiboni)

ECHELON PUBLICITY IN JAPAN -- A Japanese newspaper featured an article on a "U.S.-led spy network" intercepting Japanese diplomatic communications for 20 years to keep track of Tokyo's economic activities. The information was attributed to a New Zealand researcher named Nicky Hagger. The network, reported as "Echelon," was said to have focused on communications pertaining to trade and fishing as well as on ships transporting plutonium in the South Pacific. The article did not elaborate on the plutonium shipments, but Japan, which depends on nuclear power for about 30 percent of its electricity needs, periodically imports shipments of a uranium oxide and plutonium mixture (MOX) from Europe.

            New Zealand's Government Communications Security Bureau was said to use its Waihopai signals base to intercept communications sent via satellite from the Japanese Embassy back to Toyo and vice versa. The information then was supposedly sent to NSA.

            Media reports have alleged that the Echelon network (said to include the US, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand), was set up at the beginning of the Cold War for intelligence-gathering and has grown into a current network of intercept stations across the globe. European media reports have suggested that Echelon has listened in to vast numbers of telephone calls, fax transmissions and e-mails, prompting concern over privacy violations and allegations of industrial espionage. U.S. officials have never publicly confirmed the network exists and deny that the United States engages in industrial espionage. New Zealand government officials said they never comment on intelligence matters.

            This newspaper report, causing a public reaction in Japan, comes just before the European Union is slated to vote its recommendations on the so-called Echelon case. (Jonkers) (AP report 27 June 01, based on Tokyo newspaper Mainichi) ( http://www.wired.com/news/privacy/0,1848,44841,00.html)

TALEBAN OPIUM CONTROL SUCCESS - A POTENTIAL BOOM FOR BURMA -- The Taleban's success in eradicating three-quarters of the world's crop of opium in one season by religious law edict in Afghanistan, has international buyers turning to Burma to fill the shortfall in opium and heroin destined for Europe. International law enforcement officers expect Burmese production of heroin and opium to increase to meet the demand from Europe and traditional markets such as China, Southeast Asia, Australia and North America.

            Burma's annual opium production more than tripled in the late 1980s, from 700-800 tons to 2,500 tons. Following bad weather in the late 1990s, production fell to 1,000-1,500 tons a year, but given the new demand and favorable weather conditions, more can be expected from Burma this year. Over the past three years, a major drug-producing group, the Burmese military-backed United Wa State Army, has reportedly moved tens of thousands of opium-growing hill tribes people from the rugged mountains on Burma's border with China to areas close to Thailand, where the soil and climate are more suitable for poppy cultivation. We may expect that Burma may rise in "prominence" if it becomes a greater intelligence target in the drug wars. One might also note the power of religion to control production. (Jonkers) (courtesy P. Kessler)

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

CRYPTOGRAPHIC MODULE SECURITY STANDARDS APPROVED -- The Commerce Department on 27 June formally approved the new standard for the minimum level of cryptographic security for SENSITIVE UNCLASSIFIED federal products and information. These must be certified under the National Institute of Standards and Technology's (NIST) Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) 140-2, Security Requirements for Cryptographic Modules. The new FIPS 140-2 standard, which replaces the 140-1 standard from 1994, goes into effect Nov. 25.
            FIPS 140-2 covers four increasing levels of security. NIST maintains a list of vendors and modules with FIPS 140-1 and 140-2 validation on its Web site.
(courtesy William Knowles) (Infosec News 28 Jun 01 //D. Frank) ( http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2001/0625/web-crypto-06-28-01.asp)

CYBER NETWORK INTRUDER DETECTION SYSTEM -- Network administrators now have a new first line of defense in the protection of information assets. Motorola, Inc. announced a visualization and analysis software tool that helps the user visually interpret network attacks at a glance and respond quickly. Because the data is displayed in near-real time, the user can react quickly based on responses defined by the operation's security policy. Rapid response can serve to eliminate or mitigate potential damage to the network. (Levine's Newsbits 27 June01)
http://www.Ybreo.com/main/printProductInfo.cfm?ReleaseID=USA.09.00580.27062001.08230)

TRACING STOLEN LAPTOPS -- Software which pinpoints the exact location of laptop thieves via the Net was developed by US company zTrace. The software package activates a tracing technology when stolen laptops are connected to the Internet. Computer owners sign up to zTrace, then notify the company if their machine is stolen (a police report must also be submitted). The tracing technology inside the laptop, which zTrace says cannot be detected or uninstalled, is then activated the next time anyone tries to get the notebook online.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/2/20026.html  (Levine 27 June 01)

SECTION IV - BOOKS & OTHER SOURCES

DOUGLAS MacEACHIN, US INTELLIGENCE AND THE POLISH CRISIS, 1980-1981, CIA/CSI, June 2001.
This new book by former CIA/DI MacEachin was recently posted on the CIA / CSI webpage. [Jeremy Compton]
http://www.cia.gov/csi/books/poland/index.htm

SECDEF's ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS. Chapter 8, "Information Superiority and Space" includes intelligence [need more collaboration with industry, academia; need more, better people; need to incorporate multispectral imaging; need to make TPED improvements (Tasking, Processing Exploitation and Dissemination of imagery) especially of MASINT products; RC-135 Rivet Joint fleet expanded to 16 from 14 and a 3rd RC-135 Cobra Ball aircraft was delivered last year;] and counterintelligence [need to implement "CI21; need to guard against trusted insiders]. (Macartney)
http://www.dtic.mil/execsec/adr2001/

RICHARDS J. HEUER, JR, "PSYCHOLOGY OF INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS," RECEIVES AWARD. This recent book, which is available on the CIA / CSI website, has been chosen by the International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts (IALEIA) as the winner of its award for "Most Significant Contribution to the Literature of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysis." [Jeremy Compton]
http://www.cia.gov/csi/books/heuer.htm

LARRY TART & ROBERT KEEFE, "THE PRICE OF VIGILANCE: Attacks on American Surveillance Flights," Ballantine Books, NY, June 2001.


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Opinions expressed in the WINs are those of the editors or authors and do not reflect any official AFIO positions. Back issues of the WINs are posted on the AFIO Website www.afio.com.
Information on AFIO Symposium 2001 on 2/3 November will be forthcoming shortly.
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