Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) contain intelligence-related information and commentaries derived from open sources, selected and written and edited by the Producer/Editor, Roy Jonkers. Associate editors Don Harvey and John Macartney contribute articles to the WINs.

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2 and 3 NOVEMBER 2001
AFIO SYMPOSIUM 2001

"Statecraft, Tradecraft and Hi-Tech: Intelligence 2001 and Beyond "
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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

FBI DIRECTOR NOMINATED -- On 5 July 2001 President Bush nominated Robert S. Mueller III to be Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Mueller is a career prosecutor, who has served in the US Marine Corps. With bi-partisan support on the Hill, he is expected to be confirmed. (Wpost 6 July 01)

TRAITOR CONVICTED -- George Trofimoff, the former US Army civil service chief of the Joint Military Interrogation Center in Germany, who held a reserve commission as a Colonel in the US Army, was convicted of spying for the Soviets in Federal court in Tampa, FL, on 27 June. He had earlier beaten a similar rap in a German court on the grounds that the German statute of limitations had run out. (Jonkers)

MILOSEVIC EXTRACTED AND BROUGHT TO TRIAL -- The International Criminal Tribunal (ICT) for the former Yugoslavia has received Slobodan Milosevic, extracted in an-extra-legal, semi-clandestine operation, to be tried for alleged war crimes in Kosovo . In the two years since the end of the Kosovo conflict, it appears that the former president did not commit the genocide he was accused of by NATO, including the deaths of tens of thousands of people, and he will be tried on the serious, but lesser, charge of "war crimes. "
During the initial weeks of the war, NATO governments claimed that the numbers of ethnic Albanian dead and missing ranged in the tens of thousands. Eventually, the estimates of the number of Albanian dead settled around 10,000. In August 2000, the London-based Guardian newspaper reported that ICT spokesman Paul Risley said that the number of victims was far less than 10,000 and closer to 2,000 to 3,000 . A Spanish team stated that most of these deaths appeared to be from fighting between Yugoslav forces and the KLA. The tribunal announced an ambitious schedule to uncover 300 additional suspected burial sites, but by the summer of 2000 they had found only 680 bodies. Late in 2000, therefore, the ICT changed its tactic: it shifted from conducting a mass (all-source) search for killing fields to putting together a case based on anything that could be used as evidence to convict Milosevic of "war crimes." As a result, the charges are certainly somber but of lesser magnitude.
Ironically, according to a STRATFOR analysis, the charges Milosevic faces would make it easy for international courts to try a variety of foreign leaders and military officers, including Americans. This is unlikely to happen, however, as we exercise dominant influence over current process and are unlikely to agree with an international tribunal we could not control, as has been proposed in the UN, but is opposed by the US. Our leaders and our friends are - must be - immune.
It may be noted, incidentally, that the extraction of the democratically-elected former President of Yugoslavia was accomplished by extra-legal maneuvers showing disdain for Yugoslav legal procedures, in a semi-clandestine operation. He was essentially sold out, and bought, for over $1Billion.
From what is publicly known, US policies in Yugoslavia and Kosovo appear to have featured propaganda operations aimed not only at foreign audiences but at US policymakers and the public - and are worthy of dispassionate analysis and a case study. As the Chairman of the House intelligence committee observed at the time of the beginning of Kosovo operations and the bombing of the Yugoslav civic infrastructure with its thousands of casualties, atrocity claims were highly exaggerated - even though one must assume that Serb paramilitary forces committed atrocities, as did the KLA before the Yugoslav government's defeat (and continued afterwards under US protection).
For 1Billion we now have Milosevic on parade in our modern equivalent of the Roman Coliseum, and can expect the victims of the Yugoslav government's crude (and ill-fated) campaign to suppress KLA terrorism in Kosovo to tell their bitter tales - - presumably providing a veneer of justification for our policies in the region. (Jonkers)
( http://www.stratfor.com/europe/commentary/0106261520  / / courtesy T. Hart) (NYT 29 June 01, p. 1)

AIR FORCE FUTURE "INTELLIGENCE" PRIORITIES -- According to a recent press interview the new Secretary of the Air Force, James G. Roche, arrived in his new post with definite ideas on priorities for Air Force intelligence-related activities. The phrase "intelligence-related activities" seems to be the most reasonable manner to refer to what used to be called "Air Force Intelligence." The drive in recent years to subordinate AF "intelligence" to "operations," while at the same time thinking of "intelligence" as germane mostly to Air Force near-real-time or real-time situations, largely precludes consideration of Air Force Intelligence as a distinct entity.
Mr. Roche's priorities include emphasis on strengthening reconnaissance and surveillance forces by placing more reliance on remote systems such as unmanned aircraft and satellites and support for space-based radar. He intends to look anew at technologies involved in a couple of canceled demonstration programs (Discoverer II and Dark Star - - a stealthy UAV) to "broaden the portfolio of ISR." (ISR=Intelligence/ Surveillance/ Reconnaissance)
"Garbage air defenses," primarily those without telltale electronic signatures, will become a stimulus for developing new ground attack technologies. "I think we have to look at recapturing [the airspace over the battlefield below 20,000 ft.]." He suggested that Air Force emphasis may shift from crude jamming tactics to information warfare. Since the Air Force-led Space Command has the lead for the Defense Department on information warfare, the Secretary's priority dovetails well. It may be noted that, with the Navy having to provide tactical airborne jamming support to Air Force bombing missions of late due to the lack of Air Force jamming platforms, it would appear the Air Force emphasis shifted some time ago. (Harvey) (Aviation Week and Space Technology 25 Jun '01, p.43)

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

MILITARY IMPOTENCE OF U.S. EUROPEAN ALLIES - - Two years ago the NATO allies set a series of "force goals" to be achieved to improve the alliance when it became painfully clear that the US was carrying the main burden for the air campaign against Yugoslavia. The goals included such areas as logistics, command and control, mobility, survivability of infrastructure, and the ability to find and strike targets from the air with precision-guided munitions. A review by NATO's deputy secretary general recently concluded that current spending plans would enable NATO to fulfill less than half of these "force goals." Considering inflation, only 11 of the 19 NATO members have increased their spending for the military, with the European Union nations all together spending about 60 percent as much as the US. This situation prevails despite the demonstration during the Kosovo /Serbia bombing campaign that the European allies had fallen well behind the US in many areas, including precision-guided weapons, mid-air refueling, airlifting of war materiel, electronic jamming and weapons to destroy enemy air defenses.
  While intelligence people devote the bulk of their energies studying and reporting on potential or actual threat developments, they are also responsible for realistic assessments of potential or actual allies. Press reports in recent days addressing European military strengths, or lack thereof, paint a rather dismal picture, including:
  **The International Institute for Strategic Studies warned the European defense spending was falling at five percent per year in constant dollar terms.
  **By the German defense minister's own account, his military is currently unfit to serve in NATO.
  **Only seven NATO nations have or are acquiring weapon systems to attack enemy air defenses, like missiles fired from warplanes that home in on enemy radars. Of these, few can attack air defenses with real precision. Only the US has an airborne capability to jam enemy communications.
**Britain's Royal Navy can only put to sea two of its 11 nuclear-powered attack submarines; the rest are laid up in repairs.
  **A leaked document, the Fleet Risk Register, issued by the CinC Fleet noted serious weaknesses in the fleet's anti-submarine helicopters and underlined that there will not be enough pilots to fly the aircraft for one of the two new carriers due to join the Navy. It might not be a problem, as the influential Royal United Services Institute predicted last month that the two new carriers will never be built.
  Lest one think the European Union military weaknesses are unique, the Swedes maintain their reputation as pace setters. As part of a $75 million cost-cutting measure levied on the Swedish military, one paper reports "naval officers will work until no later than five in the afternoon; no provision is made for overtime pay. Ditto for the army and air force. Put simply, the Swedish military is being restructured out of existence, except perhaps for its bureaucratic skeleton." (Harvey) (Wall Street Journal Europe 22 May, '01; London Financial Times 13 Jun '01, p.9; London Daily Telegraph 11 Jun '01, p.1; NY Times 7 Jun '01 by M. Gordon; London Daily Telegraph 12 Jun '01, p. 1)
(Editor RJ's comment: Apparently these European simpletons believe the world has entered a period of relative peace - with a low probability of inter-state warfare and no real threat to them. Are they mad??? We NEED a Threat!!!)

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

ECHELON FUROR ENDS IN A WHIMPER -- In the end, a year of hard work boils down to this:  Echelon exists and the Europeans don't like it, but there isn't much they can do except wring their hands in impotent fury as the Americans continue spying on whomever they please. The resolution approved Tuesday by a European Parliament committee, set up to investigate the satellite-based surveillance system, condemned Echelon's existence, but, aside from agreeing to step up meaningful rhetorical pressure on the Americans, achieved very little.(http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,44984,00.html) (Levine)

HACKER CRASHES ENTIRE NATION -- A computer whiz kid has been fined �2,000 ($2,600) for hacking into the United Arab Emirates' only internet provider and causing the whole country's system to crash. Lee Ashurst, 22, originally from Oldham in Greater Manchester, was convicted of misusing equipment, services or facilities provided by Emirates Telecommunications Corp Etisalat. He was working as a computer engineer at a Dubai construction firm in May last year (00) when he began hacking into Etisalat's systems. Ashurst is now facing a compensation claim of more than �500,000 ($650,000) from Etisalat after the Dubai Court of First Instance transferred his case to the civil courts. According to the Gulf News newspaper the entire United Arab Emirates internet system crashed on several occasions over a month. (Levine 07/03 )
http://63.108.181.201/2001/07/03/eng-wenn/eng-wenn_001056_76_4245186652988.html

LAYOFFS RAISE SECURITY FEARS -- Disgruntled ex-workers are seeking revenge by hacking their former employers. The rising tide of tech industry layoffs has spawned a new wave of white-collar criminals: disgruntled workers who retaliate against their former employers by hacking into corporate systems. According to the FBI, insider hacking now accounts for about 60 percent to 80 percent of all corporate computer crimes. (Levine)
http://www.techtv.com/news/hackingandsecurity/story/0,24195,3335595,00.html

US FIRMS AND EU PRIVACY LAWS -- An attempt to bridge the chasm separating European and U.S. privacy laws is picking up steam as U.S. businesses realize their freewheeling data-collection habits may expose them to foreign prosecution. But with only 71 U.S.-based firms signed up for a "safe harbor" program that would ensure compliance with EU regulations, the European Union is looking at ways to step up enforcement of data-privacy laws. As a de facto amnesty period between EU regulators and U.S. businesses comes to an end, the very real differences over data privacy threaten to spark a transatlantic trade war.(Levine' Newsbits) (http://www.siliconvalley.com/docs/news/tech/060932.htm) (http://www.newsbytes.com/news/01/167652.html)

SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES

DISTORTED MIRROR: SOUTHEAST ASIAN CRIMINALITY IN THE UNITED STATES (3rd ed), by Jack Willoughby, Ken Sanz, and Pete Franscisco, 2001. This is a text published by insiders, for military or civilian police teams interested in Asian organized crime. Jack Willoughby is a police lieutenant, New Orleans Police Dept; Ken Sanz is a Special Agent, Florida Department of Law Enforcement; and Pete Francisco is a detective in the St. Petersburg (FL) police department.
The book profiles Southeast Asian gang members and other criminals, describes the planning of a home invasion robbery and subsequent investigation by the police, various Asian gambling games, Southeast Asian culture as pertains to criminal activity, interrogation and interview (including jail-house interviews and formal interrogations) of the target criminal group, and other facets of properly conducted investigations. There are numerous (often humorous) footnotes, referred to by the authors as "a book within the book."
This work was written for working law enforcement officers and does not limit itself to a dry recitation of police theory. For information of obtaining this book, check wofat@charter.net (Jonkers)

SECTION V - LETTERS AND NOTICES

IN MEMORIAM -- Charles S. Whitehouse, a diplomat and former Central Intelligence Agency official who was ambassador to Laos and Thailand in the 1970's, died on Monday at his home near Marshall, Va. Mr. Whitehouse was born on Nov. 5, 1921, in Paris. He graduated from Yale in 1947, after having been a Marine pilot from 1942 to 1946. In 1947 he joined the C.I.A. and worked in Congo, Turkey, Belgium and Cambodia. He moved to the State Department in 1956, where he became acting assistant secretary for East Asian affairs, and in 1972 he became deputy to Ellsworth Bunker, the American ambassador in Saigon. He arrived in Vientiane, Laos, in September 1973, where he oversaw decreasing American military aid to our allies, the brave mountain people who had fighting against both the Laotian and North Vietnamese communist forces. Eight months after Mr. Whitehouse left Vientiane to take up his new post in Bangkok in April 1975, the Communists seized power and proclaimed the Lao People's Democratic Republic, leaving our allies at their mercy, as elsewhere in this sad chapter of US withdrawal and tactical defeat.
  Mr. Whitehouse's arrival in Bangkok coincided with a crisis in United States-Thai relations caused by the Marine recapture of the Mayag�ez, the American ship that Cambodian gunboats had seized near Tang Island in the Gulf of Thailand. The United States had been reducing the extensive network of air and naval bases it had established in Thailand during the war in Vietnam. The Mayag�ez capture made the remaining US military presence increasingly controversial, and Mr. Whitehouse presided over the closing of the last American bases there in 1976.
In 1988, Mr. Whitehouse was called out of retirement by Defense Secretary Frank C. Carlucci, to become the first Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict, with the assignment of strengthening cooperation among Army, Navy and Air Force special forces after a series of disagreements and botched operations. Rest in peace. (Jonkers) (courtesy P. Kessler) (based on NYTimes 1 Jul01, P. Lewis)

LETTER TO EDITOR -- (Name Withheld) re: Hanssen Case: It totally frosts me that the Justice and Bureau boys so identify with the Hanssen family and feel sorry for them [and see their own wives and children when they look at that family] ... that this blind identification makes them end up striking a cushy deal that is a virtual gift to the wife and kids who have already richly benefited from Hanssen's thieving and selling of government secrets. The wife [who knew he was spying 15 years ago and did nothing about it] & kids got houses, costly 15 years of private school educations, computers, expensive clothes, trips ... and the Bureau keeps running around saying, "Gosh, we wonder where the money went?" Six kids went from age 5 through college in private schools, while this spy gave his exotic dancer/friend a car, jewels, & travel.
Sadly, it was clear to everyone from the beginning the Department of Justice was never serious about the death penalty (a hollow threat that has yet to be invoked after the Rosenbergs); the intention all along was to give Mrs. Hanssen that pension. What, an award for never turning him in 15 years ago when she found out? She didn't want to interfere with his patriotic hobby?  He gets provided for at taxpayer expense for the rest of his life in prison, while he reads, interviews and writes (and preens before reporters, authors, researchers & psychiatrists) about his days as that naughty FBI spy; while his wife and kids enjoy the $50K+/year pension & costly benefits. The U.S. taxpayer gets to foot the bill for all of it.
All this on the illusion he is going to be "honest" with debriefers. As honest and truthful as he's been during the prior 20 years he was spying and fooling co-workers -- all counterintelligence experts. How naive are we? They say, "Don't worry, we're going to check his statements with a polygraph, or might revoke the deal if we think he's lying." Everyone knows passing the pseudo-science machine is nothing to someone like an Ames or Hanssen, and the deal will never be revoked . to do so publicly would only make the feds look additionally addled. Sure, there will be some saber-rattling and threats on their part when it's clear he's not telling them everything (and he won't, just as Philby never told debriefers much), and there will be nothing they can do about it. And everyone knows it. Much of these end-stage negotiations are the continuation of a charade to primarily sweep this out of the courts to get this embarrassment quickly out of sight of the public.
This entire arrangement makes Hanssen quite a winner. What a provider he is. Once the embarrassment of his getting caught passed ... the family was already saying they understood he did it "...because he loved and wanted to provide for them."  [The usual illogic families apply to one of their own to explain away any perfidy].  He richly provided for them before he was caught and, with this shameful deal, he's locked in that lifestyle for the years to follow (for years of service to Russians). And he will have the rest of his days to write, reminisce and get all the attention at Allenwood this kind of infamy brings.
Odd that arrested mafia figures don't get to keep the goods that "fell off the truck" which sit in their homes during lifetimes of trucking heists; yet a corrupt white collar government employee and his complicit wife get to keep the house, the furnishings, the pension, and all the other goodies they've stolen during a lifetime of crime and double-crossing. Just by claiming he'll now "tell all" [the mafia guy is expected to do so, or else].
They should have immediately cancelled the pension, sold the ill-gotten family property, struck no deal, and gone for the death penalty. We should just face the truth and skip all the heart-to-heart intel-babble with him at Club Fed ... if he had access to it, he gave it away.
(Ed. Note - unsolicited - only in a letter to the editor can a spade be called a spade and that the emperor has no clothes on)

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