Weekly Intelligence Notes #28-01
16 July 2001

WIN #28-01 dated 16 July 2001

WINs include selected articles and commentaries on intelligence and intelligence-related events and issues, compiled, written and edited by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational background use by AFIO members and for WIN subscribers. Associate editor John Macartney contributed significantly to this WIN.

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SECTION I -- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

FBI DIRECTOR-DESIGNATE ROBERT MUELLER III IN THE MEDIA CROSSFIRE -- AttorneyGeneral John Ashcroft, who strongly pushed his choice of Robert Mueller III as the new FBI Director, has gone out of his way to publicly proclaim his confidence in Mueller. This is probably in reaction to continued criticism of the FBI in the public mass media, reciting a long string of problems such as WACO, Ruby Ridge, Richard Jewell, Wen Ho Lee, McVeigh (the oversight in delivering ALL documentation by several FBI stations) cases, and, of course, the discovery of the deep cover FBI 'mole,' Robert Hanssen. The implication conveyed by the media is that the Bureau is in trouble and needs strong medicine to recover. The new FBI director, Mueller, 56, is reported to be a no-nonsense public official, and reputedly a good manager and leader. He is said to be 'tough, smart and independent.' An FBI agent was quoted as saying "either he'll lead the Bureau, or he'll abandon it."
One might conclude that every agency, office or organization needs a good and refreshing shake-up once in awhile, that the FBI is due such an overhaul, and that the new director has the reputation of being able to do so effectively and constructively. . No less than three commissions are currently investigating the various problems of the agency. However, no one should lose sight of the fact that the FBI is full of highly capable, motivated individuals serving the nation's needs for public order, security and law. These professionals, and their organization, deserve public confidence and support. (Jonkers) (Phil Inquirer, 11 Jul01, p. A15) ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23517-2001Jul5.html)

NEW NSC STAFF SENIOR DIRECTOR FOR INTELLIGENCE APPOINTED -- National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice announced the appointment of Mary K. Sturtevant as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Intelligence Programs, NSC staff, effective July 9, 2001. Ms. Sturtevant comes to the NSC from the CIA, where she served in senior positions in the DO, the D/S&T, and as Agency Comptroller. In recent years, Sturtevant has played a key role in the development of CIA's information operations program. Ms. Sturtevant previously served as a senior staff member on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, where she provided oversight of tactical military and national foreign intelligence and counterintelligence programs. Earlier in her career, Sturtevant worked as an analyst with CIA's DI and at the BDM Corporation on technology transfer and arms control issues. (Macartney) [ http://www.zgram.net]

FORTY-SIX US DIPLOMATS LEAVE MOSCOW AS ORDERED -- Forty-six staffers of the US embassy in Russia left the country by 1 July. Russia ordered the departures as a retaliatory step for the expulsion of the same number of Russians from the US when the Russian-American "spy war" surged in April.
(http://www.rferl.org/securitywatch)

US FUNDING FOR SUDANESE OPPOSITION: The usual unnamed "sources" report that the US Government is going to provide $3 million for office space, equipment, radios, vehicles, staff and training for the Sudanese National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in an effort "to enhance the political effectiveness of the NDA." The US funding is provided via a contract with DynCorp, a Reston, Virginia government and defense contractor which previously gained media attention as the leading government contractor for anti-drug work in Colombia, Bolivia and Peru. The NDA has been an umbrella organization of opposition groups including the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) and prominent Muslim and northern opposition figures; the coalition reportedly has "melted down" recently to basically the SPLA. This group has been fighting the Khartoum Arab Muslim-dominated government since 1983, seeking greater autonomy or independence for southern Sudan's largely black population of mostly Christians or believers in traditional religions. The $3 million US program, initially approved by the Clinton administration, has been criticized by US specialists on the region on the grounds that it "feeds false hopes and expectations on the part of the southerners and sustains excessive paranoia in Khartoum." In addition, a separate package of $10 million was added last year for logistical support for the SPLA and other groups in southern Sudan but has not yet been obligated.
An outside observer would probably understand Muslim Khartoum's "paranoia" with an non-African major power dedicating $13 million to "logistic support" of the rebel Christian southerners. The Sudanese government could make a logical case with other, more affluent Arab Muslim governments, that it is deserving of their support for its efforts against the outside interference in Sudanese internal affairs. The odious practices of the Khartoum regime are well known even to the American populace but despite the unlikelihood of internal American censure of the US support to the southern rebellion, a reasonable case could be made for funneling the assistance via a deniable covert action process. The lack of such an approach stimulates speculation that the official determination was made that leaks to the press would undercut covert action or that the execution of the program would be so inept as to preclude its success.
(Harvey) (WashPost 25 May '01, p. A28 by Nora Boustany and Alan Sipress)
[Ed. Note: If what we used to call covert action is executed openly and publicized in advance, what do you call it? Non-denial covert action? Targeted foreign aid? We did it well in the late 40s and 50s in Greece and Italy and other countries using CIA while attempting to avoid American fingerprints. Today's approach is not easy to understand.]


SECTION II -- CONTEXT AND PRECEDENT

HANSSEN'S MOTIVES REMAIN A MYSTERY: Although Robert Hanssen accepted money and gemstones from the Russians, money does not seem to have been the biggest factor in his spying. Nor was he a Marxist, nor, it seems, was he angry with the FBI. Psychologists and psychiatrists working on the case are mostly puzzled about motive, but do note that Hanssen did not get along with his father (whatever that is supposed to explain??), had a fascination with spies and spying as a youth, and probably most important, that he had seemingly delighted in showing up his colleagues as stupid (and himself as superior in intellect) by successfully deceiving the entire US counterespionage apparatus -- the thrill of the chase. (Macartney/Jonkers)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37096-2001Jul9.html

US COAST GUARD IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO COMBAT PIRACY: The USCG is training local maritime forces methods in SEA to combat piracy, as the problem continues to dramatically increase in the region. Drawing on its experience battling drug smugglers and illegal immigrant traffickers, the Coast Guard is teaching skills ranging from boarding and searching suspected pirate ships to hand-to-hand combat. "The United States sees it as an increasing problem," Coast Guard anti-piracy team leader Lt. Michael Smith said Thursday. "We are trying to assume a larger role in combating it." (Macartney) (AP, 5July01)

US-RUSSIAN-FRENCH MISSION IN TRANSCAUCASUS -- The three nations are involved in mediating the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Armenian conquest of a corridor through Azerbaijan to their national enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies within the state of Azerbaijan. After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, Armenian forces invaded Azerbaijan to create a land linkage with their nationals within the enclave. This was not a minor affair -- some 30,000 people died, a wide swath of Azerbaijan was destroyed, mile after mile of Azer villages were razed by artillery, and some 750,000 Azer nationals fled or were pushed out. Armenians now seem to be farming in some of these areas.
Fortunately for the Armenians, NATO and the US were not yet in their selective "humanitarian" policy-making mode of the previous administration in regard to Yugoslavia (genocide, holocaust hype, etc. etc.) when this affair took its course, or Armenia would surely have been bombed to pieces and the Armenian President hauled before some court or other -- for this disaster exceeded what happened in Yugoslavia. Policy-making is influenced by powerful Armenian lobbies in both the US and France, by US interest in increased access to Caspian and Central Asian oil and gas, and by the possibility that renewed conflict could result in strange partnerships -- Russia supporting Armenia, and Turkey (a member of NATO) and Iran possibly supporting Azerbaijan, with the US up for grabs. All this provides most interesting clandestine operations, intelligence analysis and reporting opportunities and challenges. (Jonkers) (WashPost 15July01, p. A16)

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM ON THE DECLINE: "But the overall terrorist trend is down. According to the CIA, deaths from international terrorism fell to 2,527 in the decade of the 1990's, from 4,833 in the 80s. Nor are the United States and its policies the primary target. Terrorist activity in 2000 was heavily concentrated in just two countries -- Colombia, which had 186 incidents, and India, with 63. The cause was these countries' own political conflicts." Why then all the concern with terrorism? Partly, according to this op-ed piece, because "there are bureaucracies in the military and in intelligence agencies that are desperate to find an enemy to justify budget growth." (Macartney) (http://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/10/opinion/10JOHN.html)

CIA SOFT ON CHINA? A TEAM / B TEAM COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE, AGAIN. For at least the third time, Congress ordained that a panel of outside experts be given access to classified info in order to review CIA analysis of a particular topic. The first such episode took place in 1976 when a hawkish "B Team" under Harvard historian Richard Pipes second-guessed the CIA's analysts about Soviet's Cold War intentions and capabilities and concluded the CIA view was much too dovish. Several books and numerous journal articles have been published on that 1976 B Team.
The second B Team was formed 3 or 4 years ago under Donald Rumsfeld, to second-guess the CIA's finding that it would be 10 to 20 years before a ballistic missile threat to this country materialized. In that instance, like the 1976 event, the B Team's analysis was much more hawkish and alarmist than the CIA's more benign (or reasonable) views. And in both cases, critics, including CIA analysts, argued the "deck was stacked" by the choice of "super hawks" for the outside B Team.
Well, the very same thing has happened again. A 'B' Team has just reported that the CIA is taking much too benign a view of the Chinese threat -- downplaying Chinese tendencies that could lead to war. This B Team was headed by retired Army Gen John Tilelli, a former commander of U.S. forces in Korea. It also included China scholars from academe and think tanks. No knowledge of whether the deck was stacked again this time. (Macartney) (http://www.washtimes.com/national/20010706-82706.htm)


SECTION III -- CYBER INTELLIGENCE

EU DRIVES PRIVACY GLOBAL -- Thanks to the European Union globalization could be improving your privacy. Microsoft, Intel, Hewlett-Packard and Procter & Gamble have recently pledged to provide European-grade privacy protection to their customers in the United States and around the world, even though no law requires them to do so. Along with 69 other companies, these four have signed an EU/U.S.-brokered arrangement called Safe Harbor. Designed to provide U.S. companies with a mechanism to comply with EU privacy law, companies that sign receive the right to transfer personal data collected on European citizens to the United States. In return, these corporations agree to protect the imported data according to a set of privacy principles that are based on strict EU privacy standards.(Levine 07/16)
(http://www.wired.com/news/privacy/0,1848,44922,00.html)

NET SECURITY AND THE LAW -- Worldwide Internet security weaknesses will get worse before they get better, and there isn't a whole lot lawmakers, can do to improve the situation, one Internet security expert told a Senate subcommittee today. there is no "magic bullet" Congress could employ to address the problem.(Levine 07/16)
(http://www.newsbytes.com/news/01/167998.html)

US GOVERNMENT WANTS A FEW GOOD HACKERS -- check http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1003-200-6571082.html and http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/stories/news/0,4586,5094189,00.html

RUSSIAN MAFIA THREATENS THE NET -- Organized crime rings in Russia and the rest of the former Soviet Union are increasingly hacking into U.S. e-commerce and banking Web sites, posing an enormous economic threat. Hackers have launched computer viruses and disruptive denial-of-service attacks, but the biggest danger comes from hackers with ties to organized crime breaking into computers, FBI officials said. Spearheading the organized hacking rings is the Russian Mafia, security experts say. The Russian Mafia has infiltrated many businesses in the former Soviet Union, and is becoming increasingly sophisticated in computer crimes.(Levine's Newsbits 07/16) (http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/stories/news/0,4586,2784950,00.html)

ISRAELI HACKERS CRACK 480 SITES -- Fears that other hackers would follow last week's super-attack on 700 websites were confirmed on Saturday when a pro-Israeli defacing group called 'm0sad,' hit 480 websites in a political hack that probably took less than a minute. The attack follows another last week where more than 700 "virtually hosted" websites were hit in a single attack. (Levine 07/16) (http://www.vnunet.com/News/1124000)


SECTION IV --BOOKS AND SOURCES

MI5 CHIEF'S MEMOIRS CLEARED FOR PUBLICATION. Dame Stella Rimington, former Chief of the British security service, MI5, has been trying for months to get approval to publish her memoirs, A Life Of Surprises. The issue went clear up to Tony Blair with the result that the book will come out in September. Ultimately, Rimington had to cut or change a number of passages to reduce opposition for current ministers. [Compton]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk/newsid_1427000/1427234.stm

NEW ROBERT STEELE WHITE PAPER. The author of ON INTELLIGENCE: Spies and Secrecy in an Open World, has released his newest White Paper, "The New Craft of Intelligence." Ending with 10 things the President "must do" to salvage the situation as well as a listing of the top 11 intelligence reform books published in the 1999 - 2001 period, the article runs 19 pages.
"The cruelest and most debilitating casualty of the Cold War was neither the economy of Russia nor the American military -- it was and remains, U.S. intelligence -- intelligence qua spies and secrecy, but also intelligence qua "Smart Nation." Since World War II, an otherwise clever nation has fallen prey to several erroneous premises, among them that technology is a fine substitute for thinking; that national security is primarily about force on force and state versus state; and that the crisis of the moment is a more worthy object for Presidential interest than long-term strategic trends in water, food, energy, demography, and culture -- what our Native American forebears would call 'seventh generation' thinking." (http://www.oss.net/Papers/white/TheNewCraftofIntelligence.doc).

KEITH MELTON'S ESPIONAGE COLLECTION. As many of you know, Keith Melton, who has been collecting for some 30 years, has assembled the finest and most extensive private collection of "spy" paraphernalia anywhere. This Smithsonian article (July issue) takes you on a tour of his 7,000 piece collection of fascinating and historical artifacts. (Macartney) ( http://www.smithsonianmag.si.edu/smithsonian/issues01/jul01/spy.html)

US COUNTERTERRORISM PROGRAM FLOGGED -- Former case officer Ruel Marc Gerecht (author of a 1997 book, Know Thine Enemy: A Spy's Journey into Revolutionary Iran, as well as the devastating "Edward Shirley" article in the February 1998 Atlantic Monthly, both of which heaped criticism on the CIA) has struck again. The latest article, in the July/August 2001 issue of the Atlantic criticizes the Agency for not having native-speaking 'Non Official Cover' case officers (NOC's) who can infiltrate Moslem fundamentalist neighborhoods, villages and groups. He concludes from that, that the vaunted US war against terrorism is going nowhere. Excerpts follow: "Even a Muslim CIA officer with native-language abilities (and the Agency, according to several active-duty case officers, has very few operatives from Middle Eastern backgrounds) could do little more in this environment than a blond, blue-eyed all-American. Case officers cannot long escape the embassies and consulates in which they serve. A US official overseas, photographed and registered with the local intelligence and security services, can't travel much, particularly in a police-rich country like Pakistan, without the "host" services' knowing about it. An officer who tries to go native, pretending to be a true-believing radical Muslim searching for brothers in the cause, will make a fool of himself quickly." (Macartney) (http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2001/07/gerecht.htm)
(http://www.theatlantic.com/cgi-bin/o/unbound/flashbks/spy.htm)
(Ed. Note - whether Marc Gerecht is just one more of those who make a career out of criticizing the intelligence agencies or whether his critique is constructive and deserved in part or in whole, is left for the readers to determine --RJ)

ARMY INTELLIGENCE CONFERENCE, WASHINGTON, AUG 9-10. The Association of the United States Army (AUSA) will sponsor, and the Army Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence (DCSINT) will support, an unclassified symposium for interested members of the industry and military communities on "Intelligence Support to a Transforming Army." (http://www.ausa.org/meetings)


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