Weekly Intelligence Notes #38-01
WIN #38-01 dtd 24 Sep 2001
WINs are commentaries on intelligence-related events and issues produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO Members and for WIN Subscribers, for non-profit educational uses only. RADM Don Harvey and Dr. John Macartney also contribute articles to the WINs. Opinions expressed are solely those of the editor or author referenced with each article. WINs are protected by copyright laws.
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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
ON THE WAR ON TERRORISM --
(2) 5,000 deployed in four large Battalion-sized formations between Mazar-i-Sharif and the Tajik border.
(3) 25,000 deployed in 5 more loose Brigade-sized formations in the Kandahar and Kabul areas
(4) The lightly armed 'Regional Guards' provide defense for other areas such as Herat, other towns, strategic passes etc.
DIA ANALYST ARRESTED AS CUBAN SPY -- A Defense Department intelligence analyst was arrested on Friday on charges of conspiring to deliver U.S. national defense information to Cuba, according to the FBI and Justice Department. FBI agents arrested Ana Belen Montes, 44, an employee of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Friday morning without incident at the agency's headquarters at Bolling Air Force Base in Washington, D.C. She has been employed by the Defense Intelligence Agency as an analyst since 1985. The FBI also has obtained search warrants for her residence in Washington, D.C., for her car, her office and her safe-deposit box at a local bank. (Reuters) (PJK)
WANT TO HELP? OPM REQUESTS FEDERAL RETIREES: OPM is offering to bring back federal retirees with no reduction to their pensions, to fill jobs temporarily as a result of the recent tragedies. If you are interested, the OPM can be reached at 1-888-353-9447. (E. Zilli / G. Poteat)
SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE
TECHNOLOGY LEAKAGE VERSUS ARMS EXPORT PROMOTION -- Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz on August 31st approved the re-subordination of the Technology Security Directorate (TSD) from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) to the control of DoD Office of Policy (Douglas Feith). In the process the Directorate was re-named the Defense Technology Security Administration (DTSA).
On the face of it this was an obscure move, but it has real significance in terms of US world competitiveness in the arms trade. The newly-named DTSA has a critical role in the export license process by serving as the State Department's focal point within the Defense Department on arms transfers, and advises the Pentagon leadership on arms export policies.
The new policy is a continuation of the strategy adopted by the Clinton administration which launched a major effort to streamline the export licensing system, and it helps the current administration deliver on a campaign promise by President Bush to revamp the U.S. export control system to boost the competitiveness of U.S. companies and bolster collaboration with close allies. The U.S. system -- despite reform attempts -- has been criticized by executives and allied officials alike for being wildly out of synch with fast-paced business cycles. Licensing reviews for major weapons systems, even to close allies, can take months if not years to clear the process. The promise is for faster action. The risk is technology loss. (Jonkers) (Defense Daily, 6 Sep 01, p.6 //V. Muradian
Under the new military strategy the armed forces must prepare to win decisively against one enemy, which includes fighting all the way to an adversary's capital and toppling the government. Should a second adversary try to challenge the United States at the same time, American forces must be prepared to halt that enemy's offensive, but not necessarily fight to a conclusive victory, as well as carry out other duties, including homeland defense and peacekeeping. In the war game commanders tested whether the armed forces could decisively defeat one potential adversary, North Korea, while repelling an attack from Iraq. The planners also looked at how military operations would be affected if another event, such as terrorists attacking New York City with chemical weapons, took place at the same time, an exceptional piece of foresight.
Positive Match did find shortcomings, including shortfalls in communications and intelligence, and serious shortages in strategic lift to move forces. Even so, the findings have allowed a consensus to emerge, with all parties to the debate able to claim victory.
The expected DOD budget request for FY 2002, prior to September 11th, was $329 Billion, increasing to $400 Billion by FY 2007. The shortfalls in intelligence were to be addressed. By way of commentary one may observe not only that it is amazing what one can do with a computer simulation exercise, but that the terrorist attack of last Tuesday will significantly impact on resources allocated, the scope of the missions and the game as a whole. (Jonkers) (NYTimes 7 Sep01 //T. Shanker) http://www.comw.org/pda/0102bmemo18.html
SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE
WTC.EXE E-MAILS ARE VIRUSES - Computer
security experts are warning of a new virus that deletes files while
masquerading as a program that will allow people to vote on whether
the United States should go to war over the September 11 hijacker
attacks. The "Vote Virus,"
which so far was not widespread, has circulated via e-mail to users
of Microsoft's Outlook e-mail program. The virus, punctuated by
strange grammar and a mix of lower- and upper-case letters, appears
with the subject line: "Peace between America and Islam!"
and the body of the e-mail
reads: "Hi. Is it a war against
America or Islam!? Let's vote to live in peace!" When
the attachment entitled "WTC.exe" is opened, the virus
deletes files on the computer's hard drive and sends copies of
the e-mail to every address listed in the computer's address book.
In addition the virus, which is a worm because of its
self-propagation capabilities, deletes
the Windows directory files, tries
to download a "backdoor" on the computer and
unsuccessfully attempts to
reformat the system. A "backdoor" enables someone to get
remote access to the computer without permission.
The virus also can delete anti-virus software on the
Computer. The virus is
believed to be the work of an opportunist and not associated with
the September 11 attacks. Virus writers have discovered that they
can easily dupe people into opening e-mails by appealing to their
prurient interests. For
example, popular viruses have purported to be photos of naked women
or love letters, such as the "I Love You" virus that
caused an estimated $8.7 billion in global damage last year.
While Symantec and Network Associates reported only a couple
of customer infections each, between five and ten large corporate
customers of Computer Associates had been infected since the virus
first appeared on Monday morning.
SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES
The Last Battle: The Mayaguez Incident and the End of the Vietnam War, by Ralph Wetterhahn, Carroll & Graf Publishers, Avalon Publishing Group, 2001. (email@example.com ). Using recently declassified minutes from the National Security Council meetings held during the four-day Mayaguez Incident in May 1975, unprecedented interviews with American and Khmer Rouge combatants, and repeated visits to the Appalachian hometowns of the three forgotten marines and Cambodia, Ralph Wetterhahn, a Vietnam-era Air Force and Navy pilot, tells another sad story of poor intelligence, command and control, and unbelievable tactical blunder of abandoning three Marines in Cambodia.
The raid launched to free the crew of the hijacked U.S. merchant ship Mayaguez, was placed under an overwhelming degree of civilian and political micro-management from the Ford White House. It targeted a Cambodian island where the Mayaguez crew had never been held -- what's more, they were already on their way to freedom as the raid began. The island was much more stoutly defended than anticipated, and American troops suffered heavy casualties during the 14-hour battle.
A three-man machine gun team, which had held the marine flank against withering fire most of the day, was forgotten and abandoned as the last chopper flew off. Within days and weeks, these three marines were discovered, captured, tortured, and executed by the Khmer Rouge, becoming the last U.S. combat fatalities of the war. According to the author, the Government covered up the story of the abandoned men and even reduced the number of casualties from 41 to 18. Not until the very end of the 1990s - perhaps because of this book - did the Pentagon finally provide some of the truth about the fate of the three marines. One must ask - what happened to the survivors of these men sacrificed on the altar of an egregious command failure? Did they get special help and recognition? Obviously not - the affair was hushed up. If the author did his homework and got it straight, not a story to fill one's heart with pride. Salute those three Marines. (Jonkers) http://www.booktv.org/history/index.asp?segid=1431&schedID=68
SECTION V - SEPTEMBER 11 SPECIAL
FBI WEB SITE for Suspected Terrorist Information -- http://www.ifccfbi.gov
PENTAGON CASUALTY REPORT
NAVAL INTELLIGENCE FOUNDATION - SEPTEMBER 11TH MEMORIAL FUND -- All personnel who have served in Naval Intelligence mourn the loss of seven shipmates in the September 11th attack on the Pentagon. We extend our heartfelt sympathy to their families. Many of us who served in combat situations can reflect and say "there but for the Grace of God...."
The Naval Intelligence Foundation has now established the
"Naval Intelligence September 11th Memorial Fund" to
accept donations to be used for the emerging needs of the surviving
families, to include scholarships for the surviving children. For
those who would like to help the families of our fallen shipmates in
this fashion, tax-deductible contributions should be sent to Naval
Intelligence Foundation, P.O. Box 10422, McLean, VA 22102-8422.
Checks should be made out to Naval Intelligence Foundation, and
annotated : Naval Intelligence September 11th Memorial Fund."
SECTION VI - LETTERS
VINCE C. writes REF WIN 37 -- The report on the Aman intelligence article has been discredited. CIA's Public Affairs took the unusual step of denying the report in a statement the same day. There was no Israeli warning, and there is nothing in intelligence reporting to substantiate the allegation that Zuwahiri was in touch with Iraqi intel before the bombing. There are, of course, a number of people interested in having us bomb Iraq, and that may account for the erroneous stories.
Tom B. writes, ref WIN 37 -- Not only did the FBI's street agents get the message, but dedicated and aggressive CIA officers got it too. In the CIA the formula runs to not running operations that will get you in trouble, which means, working only with your local liaison counterparts. It takes great courage and no consideration of one's career to run unilateral operations that might "flap", so you stick with nice, safe liaison operations. That is not to say there are no unilateral operations, but one doubts they are being run with the flair and courage with which they used to be run. If we could know just what was being done (and there is no reason for us to know, but someone should) we might find that operational management is not taking the chances it used to take. If we could know, we might learn that if a CIA station wants to run an unsavory agent it can -- as long as it gets approval from on high. However, in the climate described in the item, does anyone believe that they are running unsavory, or any other agent with "flap" potential, unilateral agents? If one limits oneself to what can be done in coordination with liaison or with non-controversial agents - is our maximum potential to run HUMINT operations being reached? Perhaps not.
Editor's NOTE: For those who watched the Senate Intelligence Committee's proceedings on the special legislation now under consideration giving new rights to counterintelligence and security agencies, it appeared from the testimony by the CIA counsel that the CIA central bureaucracy does not trust the station chiefs to make the right decisions -- all sources must be vetted through the central bureaucracy. As one insider noted, the CIA lawyers are running the place. And perhaps, in the long term, given the dismal record of Congressional and political/ideological "persecution" of intelligence agencies and personnel since the seventies, that may well be the correct thing to do.(Jonkers)
WINs are produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and for WIN subscribers. Associate editors John Macartney and Don Harvey contribute articles to the WINs. Opinions expressed are those of the editor(s) or writers cited with each article. For back issues, membership information and symposium info, check the AFIO Website www.afio.com
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