Weekly Intelligence Notes #38-01
24 September 2001

WIN #38-01 dtd 24 Sep 2001

WINs are commentaries on intelligence-related events and issues produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO Members and for WIN Subscribers, for non-profit educational uses only. RADM Don Harvey and Dr. John Macartney also contribute articles to the WINs. Opinions expressed are solely those of the editor or author referenced with each article. WINs are protected by copyright laws.

NOTE -- AFIO LETTER TO PRESIDENT BUSH -- AFIO WEBSITE www.afio.com

NOTE -- AFIO Symposium and Convention in McLean, Virginia 
on 2 and 3 November 2001.
Because of the 11 September attack and increased Government security posture,
the Symposium on 2 November has been moved from the CIA compound
to a nearby secure facility in McLean
.
The Agenda remains firm.


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­ NOW MORE THAN EVER!!!
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SECTION I ­- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

LEADERSHIP PRONOUNCEMENTS ON THE WAR ON TERRORISM --

** SENATOR SHELBY, Vice Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence -- The terrorist attacks have silenced lawmakers who say intelligence agencies are no longer needed. "We've got to recruit the best and brightest of Americans to serve in our intelligence agencies because that is the front line. It is probably the most valuable investment we can make."


** CHAIRMAN PORTER GOSS, HPSCI -- Federal investigators are pursuing a number of leads to "catch the perpetrators that have not perished in the tragedy . . . We have some good, promising leads . . "


** SECRETARY OF DEFENSE RUMSFELD -- Disclosures of classified information dealing with operations are hampering efforts to track down and deal with terrorists. Disclosures of classified information have been "happening daily."


** DCI TENET: The battle against terrorism will be prolonged and difficult. "The shield of fanaticism ­ wielded by those ready to forfeit their lives to achieve their twisted dreams ­ is not easily pierced. But is has been pierced before and it will be pierced again." The director was referring to the many recent cases of terrorist operations prevented, and terrorists neutralized, by Intelligence Community operations, saving thousands of lives.


** FORMER DCI WOOLSEY -- Guidelines were issued (during the previous administration) that deter recruitment of people with human rights violations in their backgrounds. "Those restrictions may work when you are recruiting foreign government officials, but if you are trying to recruit inside Osama bin Laden's organization, there is nobody in there but human rights violators." Woolsey has been a strong advocate of lifting restrictive Executive guidelines. NOTE: The former DCI will present the keynote speech at the AFIO Awards Banquet on 3 November. (Jonkers) (WashTimes 13 Sep 01, p. A15 ///Gertz //among others)


THE TALIBAN ARMED FORCES  --


STRENGTH
- About 55,000 men under arms plus 40,000 'Regional Guards. In addition, there are two brigades of 8,000 Pakistani volunteers and up to 6,000 other foreign volunteers in the country.


COMMAND
- The main headquarters is located in Kandahar, with regional headquarters in Kabul, Herat, Jalalabad and Mazar-i-Sharif. There is a lack of a coherent command & communications structure usually associated with conventional modern armies.


DEPLOYMENT
    
       
(1) 25,000 deployed around Khost-Jalalabad in 5 loose Brigade-sized formations.

        (2) 5,000 deployed in four large Battalion-sized formations between Mazar-i-Sharif and the Tajik border.

        (3) 25,000 deployed in 5 more loose Brigade-sized formations in the Kandahar and Kabul areas

        (4) The lightly armed 'Regional Guards' provide defense for other areas such as Herat, other towns, strategic passes etc.


ARMAMENT
- Miscellaneous artillery pieces, rocket launchers and small arms. Some 120 old tanks (TU54/55-62) and 150 armored vehicles. Limited number anti-tank weapons of miscellaneous ancestry. Some 20 FROG-7 and 15 SCUD-1 ballistic missiles in questionable operational status. Air defense weapons include some 180 guns of various calibers along with perhaps 100 SA-7/14 and 50-100 Stinger pieces, also of dubious operational status. It is unlikely that the two dozen MIG-21 and SU-22 aircraft are operational. There are no operational radars. There are some well hidden ammunition supply dumps.


MINES:
The Afghans have cleared large areas along the borders with Pakistan and around vital defensive areas and laid tens of thousands of mines.. Many bridges and tracks in ravines and narrow passes have been prepared for demolition and ambush.


BOTTOMLINE (Ed)
- Armaments are pathetic in terms of modern warfare. There are few tangible assets which can be targeted. After twenty years of war and turmoil, the rubble may be rearranged. The country is impoverished and in some places starving, the population split into tribes and clans, loyalties are divided, factions exist even within the Taliban and its ruling group. There is an active tribal-based armed opposition in the North, supported by openly or covertly by Iran, Uzbekistan and Tadjikstan - and Russia and the US. Pakistani intelligence has close contacts with Taliban. Pakistan's population has suffered from US embargoes, and there is a great deal of mass support for their fellow Pashtun tribal cousins across the border. The Pakistan government must cooperate with the US to survive in spite of this sympathy. It appears that a cool and well-informed US policy, using the threat or substance of determined force, smart support to dissidents, and well-placed money, should bring down this house of cards and delivery of bin-Laden. (Jonkers)
(AFI Research - for open source order of battle - afi@supanet.com <www.geocities.com/afi_research/AFIindex.html>)
(See also Fighting Forces, by Richard Bennett, Barron's Educational Publishers, NY 2001, ISBN 0-7641-5343-9 for military weapons details on 16 countries of interest) (courtesy T. Hart)

DIA ANALYST ARRESTED AS CUBAN SPY -- A Defense Department intelligence analyst was arrested on Friday on charges of conspiring to deliver U.S. national defense information to Cuba, according to the FBI and Justice Department. FBI agents arrested Ana Belen Montes, 44, an employee of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Friday morning without incident at the agency's headquarters at Bolling Air Force Base in Washington, D.C. She has been employed by the Defense Intelligence Agency as an analyst since 1985. The FBI also has obtained search warrants for her residence in Washington, D.C., for her car, her office and her safe-deposit box at a local bank. (Reuters) (PJK)

WANT TO HELP?  OPM REQUESTS FEDERAL RETIREES:  OPM is offering to bring back federal retirees with no reduction to their pensions, to fill jobs temporarily as a result of the recent tragedies.  If you are interested, the OPM can be reached at 1-888-353-9447. (E. Zilli / G. Poteat)


SECTION II  - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

TECHNOLOGY LEAKAGE VERSUS ARMS EXPORT PROMOTION -- Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz on August 31st approved the re-subordination of the Technology Security Directorate (TSD) from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) to the control of DoD Office of Policy (Douglas Feith). In the process the Directorate was re-named the Defense Technology Security Administration (DTSA).

     On the face of it this was an obscure move, but it has real significance in terms of US world competitiveness in the arms trade. The newly-named DTSA has a critical role in the export license process by serving as the State Department's focal point within the Defense Department on arms transfers, and advises the Pentagon leadership on arms export policies.

     The new policy is a continuation of the strategy adopted by the Clinton administration which launched a major effort to streamline the export licensing system, and it helps the current administration deliver on a campaign promise by President Bush to revamp the U.S. export control system to boost the competitiveness of U.S. companies and bolster collaboration with close allies. The U.S. system -- despite reform attempts -- has been criticized by executives and allied officials alike for being wildly out of synch with fast-paced business cycles. Licensing reviews for major weapons systems, even to close allies, can take months if not years to clear the process. The promise is for faster action. The risk is technology loss. (Jonkers) (Defense Daily, 6 Sep 01, p.6 //V. Muradian


US DEFENSE STRATEGY
-- A classified computer-generated simulation war game (called "Positive Match") conducted by the nation's senior commanders prior to the 11 September attack on the Homeland determined that even with the current levels of troops and weapons, the American military could topple one adversary while halting an offensive by a second aggressor. The outcome is said to have calmed internal debates depicted in the media between SecDef Rumsfeld and the military leadership on whether America could risk cutting its forces now to finance expensive new weapons in decades to come.

     Under the new military strategy the armed forces must prepare to win decisively against one enemy, which includes fighting all the way to an adversary's capital and toppling the government. Should a second adversary try to challenge the United States at the same time, American forces must be prepared to halt that enemy's offensive, but not necessarily fight to a conclusive victory, as well as carry out other duties, including homeland defense and peacekeeping. In the war game commanders tested whether the armed forces could decisively defeat one potential adversary, North Korea, while repelling an attack from Iraq. The planners also looked at how military operations would be affected if another event, such as terrorists attacking New York City with chemical weapons, took place at the same time, an exceptional piece of foresight.

     Positive Match did find shortcomings, including shortfalls in communications and intelligence, and serious shortages in strategic lift to move forces. Even so, the findings have allowed a consensus to emerge, with all parties to the debate able to claim victory.

The expected DOD budget request for FY 2002, prior to September 11th, was $329 Billion, increasing to $400 Billion by FY 2007. The shortfalls in intelligence were to be addressed. By way of commentary one may observe not only that it is amazing what one can do with a computer simulation exercise, but that the terrorist attack of last Tuesday will significantly impact on resources allocated, the scope of the missions and the game as a whole. (Jonkers) (NYTimes 7 Sep01 //T. Shanker) http://www.comw.org/pda/0102bmemo18.html


SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

VOTE AND WTC.EXE E-MAILS ARE VIRUSESComputer security experts are warning of a new virus that deletes files while masquerading as a program that will allow people to vote on whether the United States should go to war over the September 11 hijacker attacks. The "Vote Virus," which so far was not widespread, has circulated via e-mail to users of Microsoft's Outlook e-mail program. The virus, punctuated by strange grammar and a mix of lower- and upper-case letters, appears with the subject line: "Peace between America and Islam!" and the body of the e-mail reads: "Hi. Is it a war against America or Islam!? Let's vote to live in peace!" When the attachment entitled "WTC.exe" is opened, the virus deletes files on the computer's hard drive and sends copies of the e-mail to every address listed in the computer's address book. In addition the virus, which is a worm because of its self-propagation capabilities, deletes the Windows directory files, tries to download a "backdoor" on the computer and unsuccessfully attempts to reformat the system. A "backdoor" enables someone to get remote access to the computer without permission. The virus also can delete anti-virus software on the Computer. The virus is believed to be the work of an opportunist and not associated with the September 11 attacks. Virus writers have discovered that they can easily dupe people into opening e-mails by appealing to their prurient interests. For example, popular viruses have purported to be photos of naked women or love letters, such as the "I Love You" virus that caused an estimated $8.7 billion in global damage last year. While Symantec and Network Associates reported only a couple of customer infections each, between five and ten large corporate customers of Computer Associates had been infected since the virus first appeared on Monday morning.
(Jonkers) (Reuters 25 Sep 2001)(courtesy T. Hart)


SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES

The Last Battle: The Mayaguez Incident and the End of the Vietnam War, by Ralph Wetterhahn, Carroll & Graf Publishers, Avalon Publishing Group, 2001. (philip.turner@avalonpub.com ). Using recently declassified minutes from the National Security Council meetings held during the four-day Mayaguez Incident in May 1975, unprecedented interviews with American and Khmer Rouge combatants, and repeated visits to the Appalachian hometowns of the three forgotten marines and Cambodia, Ralph Wetterhahn, a Vietnam-era Air Force and Navy pilot, tells another sad story of poor intelligence, command and control, and unbelievable tactical blunder of abandoning three Marines in Cambodia.

     The raid launched to free the crew of the hijacked U.S. merchant ship Mayaguez, was placed under an overwhelming degree of civilian and political micro-management from the Ford White House. It targeted a Cambodian island where the Mayaguez crew had never been held -- what's more, they were already on their way to freedom as the raid began. The island was much more stoutly defended than anticipated, and American troops suffered heavy casualties during the 14-hour battle.

     A three-man machine gun team, which had held the marine flank against withering fire most of the day, was forgotten and abandoned as the last chopper flew off. Within days and weeks, these three marines were discovered, captured, tortured, and executed by the Khmer Rouge, becoming the last U.S. combat fatalities of the war. According to the author, the Government covered up the story of the abandoned men and even reduced the number of casualties from 41 to 18. Not until the very end of the 1990s - perhaps because of this book - did the Pentagon finally provide some of the truth about the fate of the three marines. One must ask - what happened to the survivors of these men sacrificed on the altar of an egregious command failure? Did they get special help and recognition? Obviously not - the affair was hushed up. If the author did his homework and got it straight, not a story to fill one's heart with pride. Salute those three Marines. (Jonkers) http://www.booktv.org/history/index.asp?segid=1431&amp;schedID=68


SECTION V - SEPTEMBER 11 SPECIAL

FBI WEB SITE for Suspected Terrorist Information -- http://www.ifccfbi.gov

PENTAGON CASUALTY REPORT --.
(1) OSD: ISA, SOLIC, ISP, LA -all accounted for.
(2) DIA:  Evidently took a big hit. Ten civilians are missing presumed dead. DIA comptroller shop "wiped out, no one there survived."
(3) ARMY: DCS PERSONNEL took the brunt of the impact, 74 Army people are missing and presumed dead. LTG Maude's front office was "vaporized" according to one Army general officer.
(4) NAVY: Official list of people missing and presumed dead from the Navy staff has been released. Everyone from the Navy Command Center presumed dead. The Vice Chief of Naval Operations was holding a budget meeting which evidently saved the lives of some folks who would have been at work in N3/5, N7 and N8 offices. VCNO was hit by debris but is okay.
(5) MARINE CORPS: No Marines were killed
(6) AIR FORCE: No one killed.
(Jonkers) (Courtesy Hal Strunk)

NAVAL INTELLIGENCE FOUNDATION - SEPTEMBER 11TH MEMORIAL FUND -- All personnel who have served in Naval Intelligence mourn the loss of seven shipmates in the September 11th attack on the Pentagon. We extend our heartfelt sympathy to their families. Many of us who served in combat situations can reflect and say "there but for the Grace of God...."

     The Naval Intelligence Foundation has now established the "Naval Intelligence September 11th Memorial Fund" to accept donations to be used for the emerging needs of the surviving families, to include scholarships for the surviving children. For those who would like to help the families of our fallen shipmates in this fashion, tax-deductible contributions should be sent to Naval Intelligence Foundation, P.O. Box 10422, McLean, VA 22102-8422. Checks should be made out to Naval Intelligence Foundation, and annotated : Naval Intelligence September 11th Memorial Fund."
PLEASE PASS THE WORD !


SECTION VI - LETTERS

VINCE C. writes REF WIN 37 -- The report on the Aman intelligence article has been discredited. CIA's Public Affairs took the unusual step of denying the report in a statement the same day. There was no Israeli warning, and there is nothing in intelligence reporting to substantiate the allegation that Zuwahiri was in touch with Iraqi intel before the bombing. There are, of course, a number of people interested in having us bomb Iraq, and that may account for the erroneous stories.

Tom B. writes, ref WIN 37 -- Not only did the FBI's street agents get the message, but dedicated and aggressive CIA officers got it too. In the CIA the formula runs to not running operations that will get you in trouble, which means, working only with your local liaison counterparts. It takes great courage and no consideration of one's career to run unilateral operations that might "flap", so you stick with nice, safe liaison operations. That is not to say there are no unilateral operations, but one doubts they are being run with the flair and courage with which they used to be run. If we could know just what was being done (and there is no reason for us to know, but someone should) we might find that operational management is not taking the chances it used to take. If we could know, we might learn that if a CIA station wants to run an unsavory agent it can -- as long as it gets approval from on high. However, in the climate described in the item, does anyone believe that they are running unsavory, or any other agent with "flap" potential, unilateral agents? If one limits oneself to what can be done in coordination with liaison or with non-controversial agents - is our maximum potential to run HUMINT operations being reached? Perhaps not.

Editor's NOTE: For those who watched the Senate Intelligence Committee's proceedings on the special legislation now under consideration giving new rights to counterintelligence and security agencies, it appeared from the testimony by the CIA counsel that the CIA central bureaucracy does not trust the station chiefs to make the right decisions -- all sources must be vetted through the central bureaucracy. As one insider noted, the CIA lawyers are running the place. And perhaps, in the long term, given the dismal record of Congressional and political/ideological "persecution" of intelligence agencies and personnel since the seventies, that may well be the correct thing to do.(Jonkers)


GREG O writes:
Having authored an online course of instruction on surviving a WMD use by terrorists, I suggested a companion book for the course which I think needs telling everyone about. It's title is: Terrorism Handbook for Operational Responders...I think it's a great piece of work, should be in every glove box in every car in the US! ISBN 0-7668-0475-5 around $18 and worth every penny. Buy it....read it....then read it again...keep it close by...... www.nbcnco.com)


WINs are produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and for WIN subscribers. Associate editors John Macartney and Don Harvey contribute articles to the WINs. Opinions expressed are those of the editor(s) or writers cited with each article. For back issues, membership information and symposium info, check the AFIO Website www.afio.com

SUPPORT AFIO - SPONSOR A NEW MEMBER!


For comments, contact the editor Roy Jonkers at  afio@afio.com 
For back issues of the WIN, check the AFIO Website  www.afio.com 
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