WIN 42-01 dtd 22 Oct 2001
AFIO SYMPOSIUM "Statecraft, Tradecraft and Hi-Tech: Intelligence
2001 and Beyond" -- LAST CALL -- NOTE THAT AGENDA IS INTACT --
Congress, White House, CIA, Office of the Secretary of Defense, NSA,
and FBI leaders remain on AFIO's speaker list -- in spite of the War
on Terrorism now in full swing.
You and your US citizen guests and
colleagues are cordially invited to take advantage of this
exceptional educational opportunity -- See the agenda and sign-up
form at the AFIO Website www.afio.com,
or contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
RUSSIA CLOSES ITS CUBAN INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION SITE --
President Vladimir Putin announced on 17 October during a meeting with
his senior military officials that Russia will close its major
eavesdropping center at Lourdes in Cuba. "This is a very big and
very difficult decision given the unique role Lourdes plays for Russia
as an electronic reconnaissance and eavesdropping center," said
Alexander Pikayev, an expert on the Russian military at the Carnegie
Moscow Center. "President Putin clearly wants to capitalize on
the quick improvement in relations between the United States and
Russia since September 11th."
Putin's announcement, which also included his decision to abandon the
Soviet-era facility at Cam Ranh in Vietnam by 1 January 2002, was
obviously intended to be a significant diplomatic signal to the United
Putin is not selling out his national intelligence needs completely.
Gen. Anatoly Kvashnin, chief of the Russian armed forces general
staff, said the Russian withdrawal from Cuba would save at least $200
million a year. "For that $200 million," Kvashnin said,
"we can buy and launch 20 communications and intelligence
reconnaissance satellites, as well as purchase about 100 of the most
Bush welcomed the announcement, calling it another indication the Cold
War was over. "President Putin understands that Russia and
America are no longer adversaries; we do not judge our successes by
how much it complicates life for the other country. Instead, both
nations are taking down relics of the Cold War and building a new,
cooperative and transparent relationship for the 21st century."
in the 1940's, there was a US-Soviet Russian alliance against Nazism.
A new alliance in the war against terrorism may well be in the
interest of both nations. Putin's democratic Russia is neither a
communist monster nor a irrational threat (even though a prudent
'intelligence' eye needs to be kept on its weapons), and the Cold War
mindset culture may finally be moderating in generations of Cold
Warriors. Only a solid US conservative administration with a keen and
cool appreciation of US national interests could pull this off. The
new reality is a long-term conflict with Islamic (and other) extremist
terrorism and a sharp eye on a truly vital US national interest --
access to oil, requiring regional stability. (Jonkers) (Wpost 18 Oct
2001, p. 34 / S. Glasser)
PRESIDENTIAL FINDING ISSUED -- The President
reportedly signed an intelligence order in September directing the
destruction of Osama bin Laden and his worldwide 'al Qaeda' network.
The Finding directs attacks on bin Laden's communications, security
apparatus and infrastructure. "The gloves are off," one
senior official said. "The president has given the agency the
green light to do whatever is necessary. Lethal operations that were
unthinkable pre-September 11th are now underway."
President also reportedly added more than $1 billion to the budget for
the war on terrorism, most of it for the new covert action. The
operation will include what officials said is
"unprecedented" coordination between the CIA and military
"special operations " forces.
will address and correct past shortcomings.
example, U.S. intelligence last spring allegedly obtained high quality
real-time coverage of bin Laden himself, but were unable to act on it.
The video showed bin Laden surrounded by a large entourage at one of
his known locations in Afghanistan. But neither the CIA nor the U.S.
military had the means to shoot a missile or another weapon at him.
Since then, the unmanned drones with high-resolution cameras have
reportedly been equipped with missiles that can be fired at targets of
opportunity. The technology was not operational at the time bin Laden
was caught on video.
The new 'Presidential
Finding' differs from past findings against terrorists in a number of
significant ways. Firstly, it puts more military muscle behind the
clandestine effort to crush al Qaeda. Secondly, it is far better
funded. And thirdly, it has the highest possible priority and will
involve optimal coordination within the entire national security
structure, including the White House, the president's national
security adviser, the CIA, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
and the departments of State, Defense and Justice.
The overall military and
covert plan is intended to be massive and decisive. The President has
said he wants the CIA to undertake high-risk operations. The President
is willing to accept the personal political risks and is prepared for
a long war. He has stated to his advisers that he is willing to risk
failure in the pursuit of ultimate victory, even if the results are
some embarrassing public setbacks in individual operations.
The Vice President added that the war on bin Laden and terrorists in
general is going to be particularly difficult. "They have nothing
to defend," he said. "You know, for fifty years we deterred
the Soviets by threatening the utter destruction of the Soviet Union.
What does bin Laden value? There's no piece of real estate. It's not
like a state or a country. The notion of deterrence doesn't really
apply here. There's no treaty to be negotiated, there's no arms
control agreement that's going to guarantee our safety and security.
The only way you can deal with them is to destroy them."
Intelligence is in the frontline of this war, and AFIO members'
educational message in support of this mission is clear. (Jonkers)
(Wash Post 21 Oct 01 //B. Woodward) (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27452-2001Oct20.html)
RETIRED AF SERGEANT CHARGED WITH ESPIONAGE -- In
another sad scenario of stupidity and betrayal, accused spy Brian P.
Regan, 39, former Air Force Master Sergeant, was indicted on October
23rd by a federal grand jury in Alexandria, and changed with attempted
espionage. The indictment charges that beginning in 1999, Regan, while
employed as a contractor at the NRO, began surfing on the classified
U.S. intelligence intranet known as Intelink for information about the
military preparedness of China, Iran, Iraq and Libya.
The investigation leading
to Regan's arrest began last fall, when U.S. officials learned that
Libya had classified documents that it was not supposed to have,
according to court documents and law enforcement sources. The
documents were mostly classified secret and included unclassified
pages of otherwise classified documents. The United States also
learned that Libyan officials had received encrypted messages, telling
them to contact a free e-mail account assigned to "Steve
Jacobs," of Alexandria, an FBI affidavit said. FBI agents
determined that the Jacobs account was being accessed from public
When he was intercepted by
federal agents at Dulles International Airport in late August, he was
carrying the coordinates of two foreign countries' missile sites and
the addresses of Chinese and Iraqi embassies in Europe. A computer
disk seized during a search of Regan's home contained a letter to the
Canary Islands, Spain, asking for information about off-shore bank
accounts. Apparently Regan had amassed $53,000 in consumer debt at the
time of his arrest, and was looking for a way out. He found it.
(Jonkers) (Wash. Post, 24 Oct 2001, Pg. 18 //B. Masters) .
SECTION II -
CONTEXT AND PRECEDENT
SECDEF RUMSFELD BLASTS LEAKS -- Citing media reports
last week concerning the deployment of special operations forces in
Afghanistan, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld yesterday disciplined
Defense and Government officials who had provided the information.
"We cannot and will not provide information that could jeopardize
the success of our efforts to root out and liquidate the terrorist
networks that threaten our people. I think that the release by a
person in the government who had access to classified information to
the effect that the United States ... was about to engage in a special
operation in Afghanistan clearly was ... a violation of federal
criminal law and it was something that was totally in disregard for
the lives of the people involved in that operation." (Note:
Secretary Rumsfeld was probably referring to the Espionage Act,
specifically 18 U.S.C. 793(d), which prohibits disclosure of
information relating to the national defense to a person not entitled
to receive it.)
Ed. Note - As always, the unauthorized Government 'leakers' are
despicable. AFIO members nationwide can play a role in influencing
local and national public media to exercise restraint. (Secrecy News
KNOW YOUR ENEMY -- BIN LADEN's SUMMER BATTLECRY --
During the summer of this year a videotape featuring bin Laden
circulated widely in the Muslim world. When the two-hour videotape
surfaced last June, it attracted little public attention, partly
because much of it was spliced from previous bin Laden interviews and
tapes. But the tape quickly proliferated on Islamic Web sites and in
mosques and bazaars. Intelligence officials who analyzed the tape
during the summer said it featured the fullest exposition yet of bin
Laden's views, as well as his terrorist strategy, and thus provides a
rough road map for his organization, Al-Qaeda.
image on the grainy videotape is mesmerizing: a tall, slim,
middle-aged Arab man, with the bushy beard, white robes and draped
white headcloth of a devout Muslim, standing before a gathering
somewhere in Afghanistan. He is reading an Arabic poem, apparently his
own, on papers that riffle in a breeze. His style is that of a
fire-and-brimstone preacher. In the verses, read at the wedding in
Afghanistan of his oldest son earlier this year, bin Laden salutes the
suicide bombing of the American destroyer Cole in Yemen last October,
and promises more attacks.
The verses celebrate what
bin Laden describes as the futility of American military might.
"In Aden, our brothers rose and destroyed the mighty destroyer, a
ship so powerful it spreads fear wherever it sails," bin Laden
says, over images of the Cole. "But as it moves toward the small
boat bobbing in the water, it is sailing to its own destruction, drawn
by the illusion of its own power." Then bin Laden uses the tape
to spell out a continuing nightmare for his principal enemy, the
United States, and includes a recent addition, Israel. He promises an
intensified holy war that includes aid to Palestinians fighting
Israel, an important shift in emphasis according to intelligence
analysts, as his main focus previously has been on driving American
forces from the Arabian peninsula. He tells his followers that there
is nothing to fear from the United States and that their Islamic faith
and their willingness to die is enough to neutralize America's
military might. To those who have studied Mr. bin Laden, this aura of
confidence appeared to be one of the tape's strongest features.
also outlined plans for an expansion of his terrorist training
operations in Afghanistan, saying that the Taliban, the Islamic
militant fundamentalist movement that has sheltered him since 1996,
have built an ideal, purified Islamic state that provides the
perfect base for a worldwide holy war against
"infidels." Part of bin Laden's defiance seemed to stem from
his increasingly close ties with Afghanistan's Taliban rulers. At one
point, bin Laden declares the Taliban leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar,
the rightful spiritual leader of the Muslim world, and says
Afghanistan has become the equivalent of
the purified Islamic state established in Mecca and Medina,
Islam's holiest cities, by the Prophet Muhammad in the early seventh
century. "There is now a Muslim state that enforces God's laws,
which destroys falsehoods, and which does not succumb to the American
infidels, and it is led by a true believer, Mullah Muhammad Omar, the
commander of the faithful." He urges Muslims everywhere to come
to Afghanistan to support the Taliban and Al- Qaeda, saying it is
their duty to God.
In a clearly opportunistic
exploitation of the broad revulsion against the manner in which
Israel's government has treated its subjugated Palestinian population,
much of the tape focuses on the current upheaval in Israel and the
Palestinian territories, firing followers' passions for further
attacks. "Our brothers in Palestine are waiting for you
anxiously, and expect you to strike at America and Israel," bin
Laden says. "God's earth is wide and their interests are
tape shows why, although the attack on the United States on 11
September was committed principally by Saudi citizens, along with some
Egyptians and Algerians, it is Afghanistan that is being attacked now,
and why the US war aims include the overthrow of the Taliban.
(Jonkers) (NY Times 9Sep01 //J. Burns)
ex=1001046723&ei=1&en=969e6c40263ffb92) (T. Hart)
KNOW YOUR ENEMY - BIN LADEN AS A MODERATE -- A rival
group of Muslim terrorists regards Osama bin Laden as an infidel who
has sold out. Bin Laden's declaration of war against the West has
failed to impress an ultra-hardcore group, the Takfir wal-Hijra, that
has won a reputation for unbridled savagery in Egypt and Sudan. Its
fundamentalism is so extreme that members have embarked on killing
sprees in mosques against fellow Muslims in the belief that a pure
Islamic state can be built only if the corrupt elements of the last
one are wiped out.
see bin Laden and his
followers as pragmatists who are "excessively liberal". Its
hostility to bin Laden
first erupted in Sudan in the mid-1990s. Bin
Laden settled there in 1991 after fighting the Russians in
Afghanistan. He spent five years in the country building businesses
and his al-Qaeda
organization before being expelled in 1996. A year before he left he
was attacked at his home in Khartoum by four Takfir members who drove
up in a Toyota Hilux pick-up at about 4pm brandishing Kalashnikovs.
They were on their way home, having killed 12 Muslims at a local
mosque. Eyewitnesses say they opened fire on the house and another
occupied by bin Laden's
fighters, but his guards were alert and fought back. Four of them
died, as did three of the four Takfir members. The fourth was captured
by the Sudanese police and hanged.
feud may now be resumed because the Takfir are said to be
"angered" at bin
Laden's leadership of a "compromised jihad". They regard him
as a sellout. While he concentrates his attention on freeing Saudi
Arabia of American bases, the Takfir think that everything in
contemporary Muslim society is corrupt and should be destroyed. A
British official commented "They do not regard the Taliban as
representative of Islam. They do not take kindly to religion being
hijacked for political purposes."
might observe that nobody gets a free ride, including bin Laden, or
the Taliban. (Jonkers) (Sunday Times, London, 21 Oct 01) (http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/2001/10/21/stiusausa02030.html)
FBI ANSIR ADVISORY -- "SUSPICIOUS
If you receive a
"suspicious package" WHAT SHOULD YOU DO?
1) Handle with care. Don't shake or bump.
2) Isolate and look for
Common indicators are, but not limited to the following:
a) No return address
b) Restrictive markings, i.e., "Personal"
c) Possibly mailed from a foreign country
d) Excessive postage
e) Misspelled Words
f) Addressed to Title only or incorrect title
g) Wrong title with name
h) Badly typed or written
i) Protruding wires
j) Lopsided or uneven
k) Rigid or bulky
l) Strange odor
m) Oily Stains, discoloration, crystallization on wrapper
n) Excessive Tape or String
3) Don't Open, Smell or Taste
4) Treat as Suspect! Call 911!
If the package is open and/or a threat is identified...
*Bomb* Evacuate the area immediately. Call 911 (Police) or
*Radiological* Limit Exposure - Don't handle. Evacuate the Area
Call 911 or FBI
*Biological/Chemical* Isolate - Don't Handle. Wash your hands with
soap and warm water
Call 911 (Police) or FBI
Further guidelines may be obtained from www.fbi.gov concerning
For those interested in updated information regarding anthrax, please
contact the Center for Disease Control at www.cdc.gov .
SECTION III -
NEW GOVERNMENT CYBER NET -- The Administration has
apparently decided that the Internet isn't secure enough for its needs
and has proposed a new network be created to communicate critical
government information. The new network, dubbed Govnet, is the
brainchild of Richard Clarke, the newly appointed presidential adviser
for cyberspace security, and is intended to carry data, voice-over-IP
and possibly video. Network-security professionals supported the idea
but stressed that security on such a network will be elusive. Actions
as simple as a government employee connecting a non-secured computer
to the network or loading data from a diskette could compromise the
entire system. Levine 11 Oct)
CYBER SECURITY STUDIES -- New research funds and
possibly a new way of thinking are necessary to meet an urgent need to
secure computer networks supporting the nation's critical
infrastructure, said academic, industry and government panelists at a
congressional hearing Oct. 10th. Panelists told members of the House
Science Committee that the number of academic researchers examining
computer security is dangerously low and that the federal government
needs to provide more money and focused support. (Levine) http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2001/1008/web-cip-10-11-01.asp
SECRECY FOE - FAS - DELETES SOME WEB DATA -- Qualms
about publishing data that could be used to plot terror attacks have
prompted the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), staunch
advocates of government openness, to scrub its Web site since
September 11th, thereby joining a trend among U.S. government
agencies. FAS has yanked about 200 of its estimated half-million Web
pages. (Levine Oct 11)
VIGILANTES HACK INTO SAUDI BANK -- Vigilante hackers
apparently penetrated the security of a Saudi bank on October 10th. In
an effort to find financial information about terrorists, a member of
a group called Yihat claims to have breached the defenses of an
Internet-connected server operated by Arab National Bank. (Levine 's
Newsbits 11 Oct 01) http://www.newsbytes.com/news/01/171035.html
SECTION IV -
BOOKS AND SOURCES
The following books are not directly on the topic of
intelligence, but provide contextual information:
1. The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality, (Oxford
University 1998); also, Islam and Democracy (Oxford Univ 1999); both
by Professor John Esposito, the founder and director of Georgetown
University's Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding, who explains
the relationships of mosques, political movements and Arab
nationalism. (L. Adams)
2. Fundamentalism and the State: Remaking Politics, Economics
and Militance, by Martin E. Marty and R. Scott Appleby (Univ.
of Chicago). The books examines how fundamentalism manifests itself as
political militancy an terrorism. (ibid., L. Adams)
3. Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central
Asia, by Ahmed Rashid, Yale University, 2000. Rashid is a
Pakistani journalist who describes the Taliban's complicated economic,
diplomatic sociological and military origins. (Wash Post21 Oct01, BW
p.15 //L. Adams)
SECTION V -
HOMELAND DEFENSE RESERVE GROUP - John H. writes:
The new Office of Homeland Security should establish
a Federal Reserve of former employees and retirees from the FBI,
CIA, NSA, DoD and other government agencies with relevant
intelligence and security knowledge and experience, to assist the
Homeland office in the protection of our facilities, analysis,
surveillance and counter surveillance at home and overseas. There
are thousands of us ready and willing to serve - with or without
Editor's Note: The notion of
volunteer reserves is appealing and amenable to a number of
alternative configurations in support of different tasks and missions.
A sound, specific proposal might get a hearing. (RJ)
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) contain
commentaries on intelligence-related events and issues produced and
edited by Roy Jonkers for AFIO Members and for WIN Subscribers, for
non-profit educational uses only. RADM Don Harvey and Dr. John
Macartney also contribute articles to the WINs. Opinions expressed are
solely those of the editors and/or authors referenced with each
SUPPORT THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY AND
AFIO - SPONSOR A NEW MEMBER TODAY!
See Website www.afio.com
or email us at email@example.com