Weekly Intelligence Notes #44-01
12 November 2001

WIN 44-01 dated 12 Nov 01

Weekly Intelligence Notes are produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and for WIN subscribers. WINs are published for non-profit educational uses only. Opinions expressed are those of the Producer/Editor and the sources cited. RADM Harvey contributes articles to the WINs. Back issues are filed on the AFIO Website www.afio.com with an eight-week delay. Articles contain copyright information and may not be reproduced without permission except for individual cased for new member recruitment.

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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

INTELLIGENCE REORGANIZATION TRIAL BALLOON -- A presidential panel, headed by former National Security Advisor LGEN (ret) Brent Scowcroft, apparently launched a trial balloon 'leak' in the form of a preview of its recommendation for reform of the intelligence community. The plan would create a new DCI position to oversee, coordinate and allocate resources to the different intelligence agencies, including the CIA (HUMINT), NRO (SPACE RECON), NSA (SIGINT), and NIMA (IMINT) . Strengthening the power of the DCI over the intelligence components and resources, now mostly (90%) controlled by the Department of Defense, has long been a dream of the Washington establishment, including Congressional advocates. In the past this has been resisted by the Pentagon, at least in part because the DCI also was the Director of CIA, and over deep concerns over fundamental roles and missions.
In the Scowcroft proposal the DCI is separated from the Director of CIA, which must be a step forward if the proposal is to have a chance of success. Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, who appreciates the key role of intelligence, not only in the war against terrorism but in other types of war, including the coming age of space wars, was said to have reacted negatively when asked about the proposal. If the recommendation makes it through the internal Administration coordination and Congressional approval process, it will be a fundamental realignment.
The Scowcroft panel was appointed by President Bush in May 2001 to do its analysis, along with a second panel composed of internal experts that was chaired by Joan Dempsey, Deputy Director of Central Intelligence. That panel reportedly has suspended its activities in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. (Jonkers) (WPost 7Nov01) (Wpost 8 Nov01 p. A1 / Pincus)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58657-2001Nov7.html

JUSTICE DEPARTMENT REORGANIZATION -- The Administration on Thursday (8 Nov) announced a sweeping redesign of federal law enforcement as a first step in transforming America's security and intelligence agencies for the 21st century fight against terrorism. Attorney General John Ashcroft submitted his "wartime reorganization and mobilization'' plan to Congress . It will shift 10 percent of the resources and jobs from the nation's capital to field offices, and add FBI agents, immigration screeners and prosecutors. The FBI will focus more on preventing terrorist acts and less on solving traditional crimes that local police can handle.
     Officials said $2.5 billion would shift from other programs to counter-terrorism, more than doubling what the agency now spends to fight terrorism. Counter-terrorism funding in 2000 was $764 million, and $980 million in 2001. The restructuring will mean program cuts at the Justice Department and would take at least six months. It will require congressional approval.
      Reforming the FBI, already hit by criticism and controversy before September 11th, is still being worked. Ashcroft said a team of his top deputies will submit a preliminary plan to revamp the bureau by year's end.
      The combined proposed changes at the Justice Department, the FBI and CIA will consolidate criminal intelligence gathering, now spread across multiple defense and civilian agencies, and provide federal law enforcement agents with broader access to data gathered by the nation's intelligence systems. The goal is to re-focus the American security apparatus on a new threat, a new mission, and away from the Cold War paradigm. (Jonkers) (AP 9 Nov01 //K. Gullo) http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20011109/pl/ashcroft_justice_7.html
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20011108/pl/ashcroft_justice_5.html

NIMA BUYS COMMERCIAL IMAGERY OF AFGHANISTAN -- On October 7th, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) bought, for $1.9 million a month, all of the rights to imagery of Afghanistan from Ikonos, the only commercial satellite that produces one meter imagery. In addition, NIMA also agreed to pay $20 a square kilometer for the images it actually purchases and that no order will be for less than 10,000 square kilometers. Another satellite, Quickbird, with even higher resolution, is scheduled for launch, but will not provide images before February 2002. Israeli, French and Indian commercial birds currently in orbit lack the high resolution of Ikonos.
      Space Imaging, the Ikonos owner, is taking orders for Afghanistan imagery from the media, but cannot sell without NIMA's blessing. To prevent possible subsequent sales to adversaries, NIMA paid a premium to secure the rights to the images in perpetuity. Under the law, the US government could have blocked news media access to the satellite on national security grounds by invoking a never-used provision, "shutter control." [This control is exercised at present only in the US/Israel agreement that US commercial satellites will not obtain images of the state of Israel. There may be other such constricting international agreements but none have been reported in the press. Nor is it known if Israeli satellites are forbidden to image US territory.]
      The newspaper story reporting the purchase focused on the ancillary effect of the NIMA acquisition, the denial of the imagery to the media that might want the imagery for reporting purposes. No mention was made of how fortuitous the availability of American commercial imagery was or how useful to the war effort the Afghan imagery might be. The start and finish of the article were centered on this contract precluding press "coverage on the ground" and the complaint of Adam Clayton Powell III of the Freedom Forum of how this action sets a precedent of denying "independent verification and basic reporting." Had the reporter addressed the subject from a "what is good for American interests" viewpoint, he could have expressed concern that NIMA and the intelligence community might well have insufficient interpreters and processing capabilities to absorb the new imagery volume effectively. (Harvey) (NY Times 19 Oct '01, p. B2 // M. R. Gordon)

ALBANIAN TERRORISTS KILL MACEDONIAN OFFICERS -- In a repetition of the murder-campaign against indigenous Serbs and moderate Kosovars in Kosovo in the 1980's and 90's by KLA criminal clans, a new "Albanian National Army" has set about killing police officers in Macedonia. They probably hope that the Kosovo precedence is Macedonian preview. The drug and crime-tainted Kosovo terrorists (on the US terrorist list) were embraced by the previous Administration as swiftly as Stalin morphed from a feared ogre into a close buddy in 1941, but with much less rationale. It led to the bombing of the Serbs (adding greatly to the outflow of refugees from Kosovo), and the ethnic cleansing of Serbs from Kosovo under US auspices. With NATO troops already in Macedonia, the "ANA'" prospects cannot be as optimistic, although a "greater Albania" looms on the far horizon. Our Balkan policy demonstrated that bombing comes easier to us recently than strong, consistent diplomacy based on realistic insight. (Jonkers) (WTimes 13 Nov01, p. A13)

NEW RUSSIAN COMMAND CENTER FOR CENTRAL ASIA -- Russia will establish a regional command center for Central Asia's new rapid reaction force in Kyrgyzstan on 1 August 2002. It is intended to counter Islamic rebels and give Russia a way to further establish itself militarily in the region. The force is part of a cooperative effort among the region's governments to combat the threat from Islamic radicals. The center will be designed as a military headquarters where Russian and Central Asian officers will likely plan and lead counterinsurgency operations in the region. (STRATFOR Report 01/10/10) (www.stratfor.com) (T. Hart)


SECTION II -- CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

"WAR" ON TERRORISM PROVIDES OPPORTUNITIES:  The "War" on Terrorism, flowing out of the tragedy of September 11th, presents great challenges -- but also great US strategic and intelligence opportunities relating to energy sources (as well as weapons of mass destruction) in the Muslim world. Some manifestations:
(1) President Bush' meeting with Algerian leaders. Algeria's government has battled Islamic extremists for a decade in a (largely unreported and unlamented) war that has cost more than 100,000 Algerian lives. Algerian terrorists have connections with Al Qaeda. Algerian Government intelligence on international terrorism is likely to be useful. There is an corollary US strategic energy interest opportunity: Algeria has vast natural-gas reserves.
(2) UK PM Tony Blair's visit to Syria, reportedly to persuade them to stop supporting anti-Israeli guerillas - not an easy task since Israel still occupies part of Syria.
(3) Secret talks with Libyan officials. International and domestic pressures have forced Gaddafi into doing an about-face on terrorism. These pressures include a decline in oil prices and the internal threat from Libyan Islamic groups. Gaddafi has been faced with a growing Islamic fundamentalist movement, whose supporters are believed to have been involved in assassination attempts on the Libyan leader. Ray Takeyh, a Libya scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, notes that Gaddafi recently turned his attention away from the Arab-Israeli conflict toward Africa, where he has been promoting a United States of Africa.
Libya remains on the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism, but foreign-policy experts say that Gaddafi is not the threat he once was. He has reportedly provided the British with intelligence on the IRA, one of the many terrorist organizations Libya formerly supported. Libyan intelligence can provide insights, Libya also represents a significant US/UK strategic oil interest.
(4) US talks with Iran, as noted by Secretary of State Colin Powell last week. Iran has taken some positive actions. It recently pulled a large number of military officials out of Lebanon, Sudan, and Bosnia. Those in Lebanon had been working for years with Hizbullah (reportedly dedicated to liberating Lebanese territory from Israeli occupation), a terrorist organization in the US lexicon. Iran has also offered to rescue any US pilots downed in its territory during the current war.
Why Iran? Iran opposes the Taliban on religious sectarian grounds (like the Catholics and Protestants of yore). Iranians are said to consider Osama bin Laden a dangerous carpetbagger in the region. Finally, Iran's moves may be partially motivated by its interest in further developing the country's oil and gas assets, and interest synonymous with that of the US.
(5) Strengthening the US position in Central Asia, formerly part of the Soviet Union, still a part of the CSIS, an area where the largest remaining world oil reserves reside. There have already been years of a US-Russian "pipeline politics" contest as the US has extended its power in the Trans-Caucasus ( the Russian equivalent of Mexico to the US). The US reach has had some success in Georgia where our old friend President Shevardnadze survived a recent assassination attempt and still holds sway, and a NATO Air Support Operations Center was established last year. But now significant inroads are being made.
US relations with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are being placed on a new footing under the anti-terrorist umbrella, and US troops and air power are being deployed to these states. It may be noted that recently, by coincidence, Western oilmen drilling in Kazakhstan found the most convincing evidence yet of the largest oil field in the world since the 1967 discovery of oil on Alaska's North Slope in 1967. The US strategic goal must be to make the entire Caspian area a Western energy preserve.
The terrorist attack has opened the door of opportunity to a strong policy with open as well as discreet, covert, and clandestine component actions in the Central Asian area, as new regional power balances are being created and vital US (energy) interests asserted. (Jonkers) (Wall St Jrnl 15 Oct01 p. A16.) (Chr. Science Monitor, 9 Nov 01 //H. LaFranchi)

KNOWING FRIEND FROM ENEMY - THE BIN LADEN FAMILY -- The convoluted and contested relationships of bin Laden and his extended family are the topic of an informative article in the current New Yorker. The director of the congressional task force on terrorism and unconventional warfare, Yossef Bodansky, commented on the bin Laden 'family conflict' by noting that "Osama isn't at war against his family. . . He is fighting to save his family. He sees the corruption of his family as one of the manifestations of the reach of the West." Bodansky continued, "Look, bin Laden is probably right. A value system he cares about dearly is succumbing to the onslaught of Western civilization. . . . He's absolutely correct in principle. But his conclusion that there is no escape but provoking world war leaves a lot to be desired."
Too long to be adequately reflected here, this article is recommended to those who like to peel back the layers of the Al Qaeda terrorism phenomenon and its roots and relationships in Saudi Arabia. (Jonkers) (New Yorker, 12 Nov. 2001, p. 54, by Jane Mayer)
(http://ebird.dtic.mil/Nov2001/s20011109thehouse.htm)

BRITISH GOVERNMENT CASE AGAINST BIN LADEN -- A document, entitled 'Responsibility for the Terrorist Atrocities in the United States,' was released by Downing Street on Thursday about the evidence against Osama Bin Laden.
This document does not purport to provide a prosecutable case against Osama Bin Laden in a court of law. Intelligence often cannot be used evidentially, due both to the strict rules of admissibility and to the need to protect the safety of sources. But on the basis of all the information available HMG is confident of its conclusions as expressed in this document. The Introduction states:
1. The clear conclusions reached by the government are:
Osama Bin Laden and al-Qaeda, the terrorist network which he heads, planned and carried out the atrocities on 11 September 2001; Osama Bin Laden and al-Qaeda retain the will and resources to carry out further atrocities; The United Kingdom, and United Kingdom nationals are potential targets; and Osama Bin Laden and al-Qaeda were able to commit these atrocities because of their close alliance with the Taliban regime, which allowed them to operate with impunity in pursuing their terrorist activity.
2. The material in respect of 1998 and the USS Cole comes from indictments and intelligence sources. The material in respect of 11 September comes from intelligence and the criminal investigation to date. The details of some aspects cannot be given, but the facts are clear from the intelligence.
3. The document does not contain the totality of the material known to HMG, given the continuing and absolute need to protect intelligence sources. (BBC News 4 Oct01 - 1225 GMT) (http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk_politics/newsid_1579000/1579043..stm ) (courtesy basketcasenewshound)

MORE THAN WE NEED TO KNOW -- "AF is short of water." That brief message changed the course of World War II. It also holds a lesson for the present administration: Wantonly using intelligence gathered from the enemy can cost us dearly.
      In the spring of 1942, U.S. cryptographers had cracked a code used by the Japanese navy, and had caught wind of an impending operation. According to the intercepted messages, "AF" was to be the target of a major assault. Though the code-breakers knew that AF was an island in the Pacific -- probably Midway -- they didn't know for certain. If they guessed wrong, the enemy would be able to invade unopposed.
      To clear up the mystery, Commander Joseph Rochefort, head of the Navy's cryptography center at Pearl Harbor, instructed the Midway installation to signal that their water distillery had been damaged and that they needed a shipment of fresh water. Soon the code-breakers had exactly what they wanted: They intercepted a Japanese transmission of "AF is short of water." AF was Midway, and the U.S. fleet gathered to defend the island. Rochefort had used the Japanese navy's espionage operations for his own purposes. By watching the Japanese reaction to intelligence that he had planted, he was able to change the course of the war in the Pacific.
      The Taliban and al Qaeda would love to do the same to us, and we are making their job easy. Whenever a member of the administration issues a warning based upon intelligence gathered from the enemy, we are giving them information. If the enemy forces are as clever as they seem to be, they will watch our reaction to intelligence to see whether they can figure out our sources, our methods and our plans. And rest assured, if they find out where we get our intelligence, they will root out the leak brutally and efficiently.
       An intelligence source is a strategic asset more fragile than any B-2 bomber, and, like any bomber, we risk it every time we use it. The administration must carefully weigh the potential benefits of making any bit of intelligence information public against the risk of losing the source. Perhaps warning of a bomb on a San Francisco bridge can save lives, and might be worth the risk involved. But a general alert that something is going to happen somewhere and sometime can do nobody any good, except for a politician trying to insure himself against future criticism -- and except for the Taliban and al Qaeda.
      The intelligence community is acutely aware that loose-lipped politicians have lost us important sources of information in the past, and are likely to do so in the future. Unless they are careful, those who have access to sensitive information might become unwitting assets of the enemy. (Jonkers) (WashPost 9 Nov01/p37 //Charles Seife)

FBI REQUESTS PUBLIC SUPPORT IN ANTHRAX INVESTIGATION - ANSIR E-Mail: National Threat Warning System -- The following behavioral analysis has been released by the FBI in an effort to increase public assistance in the ongoing anthrax investigation.
(1) it is highly probable that that three letters, addressed to Tom Brokaw, the New York Post, and Senator Tom Daschle, respectively, were authored by the same person.
(2) the offender is assessed as likely an adult male with access to laboratory equipment, i.e., microscope, glassware, centrifuge, etc., who may have exhibited significant behavioral changes throughout the course of the anthrax mailings and related media coverage (09/18/01 and 10/09/01). These changes may include altered physical appearance, pronounced anxiety, atypical media interest, noticeable mood swings, more withdrawn, unusual level of preoccupation, unusual absenteeism, altered sleeping and/or eating habits.
 (3) Previous high-profile investigations conducted by the FBI involving writings were solved with the help of the public in identifying the author by either how he wrote, or what he wrote. We are asking for the public's help here again in the same way. The text in these letters have distinctive characteristics. They may have been used in other letters, greeting cards, or envelopes written by him. Perhaps someone has received a correspondence from this person and will recognize some of these characteristics. For example: --The author uses dashes ("-") in the writing of the date "09-11-01." Many people use the slash ("/") to separate the day/month/year.
--In writing the number one, he writes it as "1" instead of the simple vertical line. --The author uses the words "can not" when many people prefer to spell it as one word, "cannot." --The author writes in all upper case block-style letters. However, the first letter of the first word of each sentence is written in slightly larger upper case lettering, as is the first letter of all the proper nouns. This is apparently his way of indicating capitalization in upper case lettering. For whatever reason, he may not be comfortable or practiced in writing in lower case lettering. --The names and address on each envelope is noticeably tilted on a downward slant from left to right. This may be a characteristic evident on other envelopes he has sent. --The envelopes are of the pre-stamped variety, the stamps denoting 34 cents, which are normally available directly from the post office. They are not the traditional business size envelopes, but the smaller size measuring approximately 6 1/4" x 3 1/2." This an FBI Awareness of National Security Issues and Response (ANSIR) communication . (Special Agent Gary Harter at gharter@leo.gov)


SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

INTERNET AND PHONE COMPANIES IMPLICATED IN TERRORISM -- President Bush and his top cabinet members announced on November 7th that several small Internet and telephone companies operating in the U.S. have been implicated as participants in the global terrorist networks. The investigation into global terrorism has resulted in evidence seizures and raids at several businesses across the country and throughout the world. Bush said that companies operating inside several loose financial networks have provided secure Internet and satellite phone services, among other communications facilities.(Levine Newsbits 7 Nov 01)
http://www.newsbytes.com/news/01/171955.html

EUROPEANS ADOPT FIRST CYBER-CRIME TREATY - The 43-nation Council of Europe adopted a convention on cyber crime on Thursday, the first international treaty on criminal offences committed over the Internet. The treaty criminalizes activities such as fraud and child pornography committed on the World Wide Web and sets up global policing procedures for conducting computer searches, intercepting e-mails, and extraditing criminal suspects.(Levine 's Newsbits 8 Nov 01)
http://www.siliconvalley.com/docs/news/reuters_wire/1636764l.htm
http://www.newsbytes.com/news/01/172012.html

FBI VULNERABILITIES LIST -- It used to be pretty tough to find out your security vulnerabilities, but that's changed. The SANS Institute in Bethesda, Maryland, working with the FBI, has developed a top 20 list of common vulnerabilities that leave Internet sites open to attacks. (LEVINE 8 NOV 01)
http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/stories/news/0,4586,2823532,00.html

IBM CHIP ACHIEVES SECURITY CERTIFICATION -- IBM Corp. announced this week that its Cryptographic Security Chip, used in its NetVista desktop computers and ThinkPad notebooks, has received Common Criteria certification, a security standard recognized by the United States and 13 other countries. Common Criteria (ISO/IEC 15408) is an international standard for evaluating information technology security products to be certified at a defined assurance level.(LEVINE 9 NOV01) (http://www.newsbits.net/search.html)
http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2001/1105/web-chip-11-09-01.asp


SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES

What's New in Homeland Security Readings:
(1) RESTORE THE MILITIA FOR HOMELAND SECURITY -- article by John Brinkerhoff, who suggests the reintroduction of the militia for homeland security purposes. It would relieve pressure on the National Guard and provide the U.S. Government with an efficient, cost-effective alternative for supplementing first responders on the home front.
     There is Congressional action on a similar theme. Americans will have expanded opportunities to volunteer with the government under new legislation proposed by Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Evan Bayh, D-Ind., Under the proposed "Call to Service Act of 2001," AmeriCorps, which currently has 50,000 volunteers, would grow to 250,000 volunteers by 2010. Half of those volunteers would be dedicated to homeland security or public safety. (Jonkers / ANSER Institute Journal of Homeland Security 9 Nov 01) (Government Executive 7 Nov 01) ) (http://www.govexec.com) (http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/1101/110701t2.htm)
(http://www.homelandsecurity.org/journal/HLDBulletin/dsp_BulletinForm.cfm)

(2) GILMORE COMMISSION -- Preliminary Phase III Report on Terrorism. The 'Advisory Panel to Assess Domestic Response Capabilities for Terrorism Involving Weapons of Mass Destruction' has issued a preliminary report in the wake of the 11 September terrorist attacks. The report is dedicated to Ray Downey, a member of the Commission from the New York Fire Department, who perished in the World Trade Center bombing (http://www.rand.org/nsrd/terrpanel/nov1statement.pdf)

(3) GAO HOMELAND SECURITY AND CHEM/BIO REPORTS -- Last month, the General Accounting Office released a new report titled "Chemical and Biological Defense: DoD Needs to Clarify Expectations for Medical Readiness." Additionally, the GAO's David Walker testified Wednesday on homeland security challenges and strategies in both the short term and the long term. http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d02219t.pdf http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d02160t.pdf

PENTAGON SEEKS IDEAS ON COMBATING TERRORISM -- DOD has issued a Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) on Oct. 23 (No. 02-Q-4655), seeking help in combating terrorism, defeating difficult targets, conducting protracted operations in remote areas, and developing countermeasures to weapons of mass destruction. Its objective is to find concepts that can be developed and fielded within 12 to 18 months. The BAA provides for a three-phase process in which interested parties initially submit a one-page description of their concept. Initial responses are due by Dec.23. 2001. After a review of a submission and if DoD is interested in further information, the submitter will then be asked to provide a more detailed description of up to 12 pages of the idea. Those who have offered the most promising ideas will be asked to submit full proposals in a third phase that may form the basis for a contract. Interested parties can obtain more information concerning this BAA by visiting http://www.bids.tswg.gov .(Jonkers)
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Oct2001/b10252001_bt540-01.html] (T. Hart)


SECTION V - LETTERS

Corky J. writes on RECALL TO ACTIVE DUTY: If you thought I'd contact the Navy Personnel Command, and request a recall from retirement to take part in the "War on Terrorism," you are right. And, therefore, you should know that there's a special category for us retirees. It's "4K." When I called the Personnel Command to volunteer, the captain I spoke to told me that I'd be put into a new category.....that of 4K. I said, "I know what 4F is, but what's 4K?" The captain replied: "When the enemy gets to 4th and K Streets in Washington, D.C., we'll call you."


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