WIN 45 - dated
19 November 01
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) contain items of interest and
commentaries selected, edited, written and produced by Roy Jonkers for
non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers.
Associate Editor Don Harvey contributes articles to the WINs.
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SECTION I -
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
AFGHANISTAN INTELLIGENCE -- With Taliban forces in
retreat from most cities, Air Force EC-130E "Commando Solo"
flights are reported to have increased radio broadcasts and leaflet
drops offering a $25 million reward for bin Laden, while U.S.
operatives supplied weapons, ammunition, food and clothing to
anti-Taliban Pashtun guerrillas in the south of the country. During
the war's next phase the emphasis will presumably be on unmanned
reconnaissance aircraft and other intelligence-gathering tools to
search for bin Laden and Omar.
Pashtun tribal leaders are positioning
themselves to get the best deal for their tribes in the post-Taliban
Afghanistan. Media reports indicate that both military special
operations forces and CIA personnel are in touch with local
anti-Taliban insurgents and are collecting intelligence, mounting
search operations and acting as agents of influence. (Jonkers)
(WashPost 15Nov01 p.A35 //Loeb/Graham)
BIN LADEN's GUILT -- We are wading more deeply in the
war of words, of propaganda and counter-propaganda, an indispensable
aspect of war providing the rationale and license to kill. The British
Government released a report it attributed to yet another (as yet
unseen) videotape by bin Laden, allegedly distributed among al Qaeda
members on October 20th. According to the British government document,
an interviewer asked bin Laden about the attacks on New York and
Washington, and the Saudi exile replied: "It is what we
instigated, for a while, in self-defense. And it was revenge for our
people killed in Palestine and Iraq.. . . Bush and Blair . . . don't
understand any language but the language of force . . . Every time
they kill us, we will kill them, so the balance of terror can be
achieved."
According to Prime Minister Tony Blair,
addressing Parliament, bin Laden, in the video, described the Sept.
11th attacks as 'good terrorism,' saying "The bad terror is what
America and Israel are practicing against our people. . . . What we
are practicing is the good terror that will stop them doing what they
are doing. . . . The battle has been moved inside America, and we
shall continue until we win this battle, or die in the cause and meet
our maker." The Prime Minister cited the latest video as he
expanded on his previous statements on October 4th in building a
public case for bin Laden's guilt, concluding by saying "there is
no doubt whatever of the guilt of bin Laden and his associates."
London's Sunday Telegraph also quoted bin
Laden from the as yet unseen video. "The twin towers were
legitimate targets, they were supporting U.S. economic power,"
the newspaper quoted bin Laden as saying. "What was destroyed
were not only the towers, but the towers of morale in that country.
The towers were filled with supporters of the economical powers of the
United States who are abusing the world. We are treating them like
they treated us."
Since Sept. 11, the U.S. government also has
blamed bin Laden for the attacks but has not released evidence showing
that he directly planned or ordered them. In various videotaped
statements that have been broadcast internationally, bin Laden has not
claimed direct responsibility.
In an attempt to counter skepticism about bin
Laden's involvement in the attack on New York, particularly in the
Muslim world, Prime Minister Blair has functioned as the chief
prosecutor for the U.S.-led anti-terrorism coalition, often releasing
more explicit information than U.S. officials. The Prime Minister's
statement was published not only in English, but also in Arabic and
Urdu, the main language of Pakistan.
British officials said they did not have a
copy of the video but received information about it from intelligence
sources. Without detracting from the validity of the statements, those
who have read case histories of war justifications and propaganda in
previous wars (or have lived through wars, as this editor has, from
WWII onward), are condemned to remember them. Whatever, it doesn't
detract from the validity of the present objective. (Jonkers) (Wash
Post Nov 15, 2001, Pg. 29 //T. Reid) (London Telegraph 11Nov01)
AL QAEDA BUYING "BLOOD" DIAMONDS IN SIERRA LEONE
-- Individuals identified by the FBI as operatives from al Qaeda and
other terrorist organizations have been buying millions of dollars
worth of "blood" diamonds from the brutal Revolutionary
United Front (RUF) in Sierra Leone at below-market prices, selling
them for profits in Europe estimated in the millions. Since July,
however, the al Qaeda buyers are reported to have been purchasing far
more diamonds than usual and paying premium prices. This change in
tactics has led to the speculation that al Qaeda, anticipating that
its accounts would be frozen after the September 11 attacks, has been
protecting its money by sinking it into gemstones, a commodity that
can be easily hidden, holds its value and remains almost untraceable.
The volume and detail of the story raise a
strong suspicion that the reporter profited from a complete file dump
by the official investigators. He cited US and European intelligence
sources and at least two directly-involved sources who had first hand
knowledge of the transactions. The detail included such items as the
names of the Antwerp diamond dealers, descriptions of the people who
staff the safe house, the dates of significant meetings, etc. South
Africa has attempted for the past 18 months to bring the 38
diamond-producing and trading nations together to eliminate the
"bloody gems" from Sierra Leone from the legitimate diamond
trade, but the US has stalled and refused to cooperate with the
procedures being negotiated - demanding discretion in applying the law
and refusing to "name and shame" countries that continue to
trade in blood diamonds. The detailed account on the front page would
appear to have changed the playing field, especially in light of the
intense drive to dry up the al Qaeda funding sources. (Harvey)
(WashPost 2 Nov01 p.1 & 6 Nov p. A23 // /D. Farah & H.
Burkhalter)
SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE
FRENCH CI PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM -- Jean-Jacques
Pascal, chief of the French counterintelligence agency, the DST (
Direction of Surveillance of the Territory), recently held his first
on-the-record interview with foreign journalists in his
"bland" office on a quiet street near the Eiffel Tower.
According to the reporter, Pascal and the DST receive very high marks
from US intelligence officers despite the prickly diplomatic attitude
of the French toward America. Pascal indicated he began to notice a
pattern as early as 1997 of what he calls "neo-Afghans,"
Algerians [and presumably others] traveling to Osama bin Laden's
training camps in Afghanistan. After learning "heavy"
terrorist techniques and practices in the camps, these neo-Afghans --
not rough street kids from the ghettos of Marseilles but drawn from an
educated and seemingly assimilated milieu -- settled back into the
European landscape as "sleepers."
The DST issued a first intelligence report
warning about this neo-Afghan threat in 1998. Pascal recounted
European intelligence authorities' successes in disrupting planned al
Qaeda operations such as a planned bombing of World Cup soccer matches
in France, an attack on the European parliament in Strasbourg, and a
plot to blow up the US embassy in Paris.
Pascal believes bin Laden's network is a
loosely organized confederation of terrorist groups rather than a
tightly disciplined movement, calling it "mouvance" meaning
"sphere of influence." He described the network as a loose
spine, with some tough lieutenants and liaison officers who plan
operations and give orders. Until the recent crackdown on al Qaeda
finances, the inner core received covert funding while the dozens of
small, semi-independent cells financed their operations by petty
crime, such as document forgery. He warned that new theaters for
terrorist attacks could emerge from Indonesia, the Philippines,
Kashmir and the Uighur regions of western China. He reportedly was
skeptical of press reports of Iraqi links to bin Laden and possible
bin Laden possession of nuclear or biological weapons. It is
refreshing to read a professional counterintelligence practitioner's
views in midst the current flood of media and other amateur
opinions.(Harvey) (WashPost 18 Nov01, p. B7 //D. Ignatius)
SECTION III -
CYBER INTELLIGENCE
NEW GOVNET UNDER CONSIDERATION -- The Administration
is considering the creation of a secure new government communications
network, separate from the Internet, that would be less vulnerable to
attack and efforts to disrupt critical federal activities. The
idea for such a system, called GovNet, is the brainchild of Richard A.
Clarke, whom President Bush recently named his Special Adviser for
Cyberspace Security. Clark noted that the attacks of September 11th
showed that it is imperative to imagine the ways terrorists could
disrupt the nation's information infrastructure and the computer
networks that control telecommunications, the electric grid, water
supplies and air traffic. The administration has asked the industry to
submit information about how such a system might work and what it
would cost. Once the industry information comes in, the ideas will be
studied by a team of government experts as well as outside academics.
Assessing the possibility of a separate
computer network for the government is just one example of how the
administration is looking toward technological advances to bolster
homeland security. After examining devices for sensing radiation and
chemical and biological agents, Tom Ridge, the director of homeland
security, said this week that technology would be "at the heart
of strategy" for making the nation more secure. (Jonkers) (NYT
17Nov01// A. Mitchell) http://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/17/technology/17INTE.html?ex=1007002815&ei=1&en=af424639636118c6
(T. Hart)
SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES
RUSSIAN WEAPONS ENCYCLOPEDIA RELEASE - Russia's
Ministry of Defense has released Volume #3 - "NAVAL
WEAPONS," of the highly acclaimed 'Arms and Technologies 21st
Century' Encyclopedia series. The encyclopedia gives exhaustive
information on various types of modern weapons systems and defense
Technologies, presented by Russia's leading defense manufacturers and
research organizations. This series is available exclusively through
Tommax, Inc. tommax64@worldnet.att.net;
http://tommax-military.com
NEWLY PUBLISHED RESOURCES ON TERRORISM
(1) British Government publication of an updated version of its report
on "Responsibility for the Terrorist Atrocities in the United
States, 11 September 11 2001," which outlines on an unclassified
basis the case against Usama bin Laden and Al Qaida. http://www.fas.org/irp/news/2001/11/ukreport.html
(2) U.S. State Department published a comparable report of its own on
"The Network of Terrorism" which is glossier but no more
substantive than the UK report. http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/terrornet/
(3) The Library of Congress has prepared a helpful compilation of
"Legislation Related to the Attack of September 11, 2001" of
which there has been quite a bit. http://rs9.loc.gov/home/terrorleg.htm
(4) National Security Archive Update, November 15, 2001 -- "The
September 11th Source Books, Volume V, Anthrax at Sverdlovsk, 1979:
U.S. Intelligence on the Deadliest Modern Outbreak." Contains
declassified documents from the Central Intelligence Agency, Defense
Intelligence Agency and State Department on the deadliest modern
outbreak of anthrax - the 1979 release of anthrax spores from a Soviet
biological warfare facility in Sverdlovsk. (T. Hart, 15 Nov01) http://www.nsarchive.org/NSAEBB/NSAEBB61
SECTION V - LETTERS
Larry S. writes, in reference to WIN #44 on the changes at DoJ and FBI
--
Here's my 2� worth: There is a crying need for
national security agencies to share information with - and receive
information from - local law enforcement and grand jury
investigations. Such deficiencies may well have been disastrous in
the pre-9/11 period when intelligence from terrorist court cases was
held close, or denied, by the DoJ & the FBI. There are some
indications that the deficiency is being addressed by the
Administration, but the strong perception at the local law
enforcement level is that, to put it plainly, the FBI does not
share.
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